LOOKING FORWARD: WHY THE ROAD TO PROSPERITY STARTS WITH EQUITY

LOOKING FORWARD: WHY THE ROAD TO PROSPERITY STARTS WITH EQUITY 01.15.2016 MANUEL PASTOR @Prof_MPastor

Decadal Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity United States, 1980-2010 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 150% 109% 100% 50% 53% 58% 50% 43% 43% 0% 16% 12% 11% 4% 3% 1% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

Decadal Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity Colorado, 1980-2010 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 150% 100% 100% 73% 71% 50% 41% 45% 12% 20% 10% 28% 24% 26% 19% 0% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

Decadal Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity Denver-Aurora, CO Metro, 1980-2010 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 150% 100% 88% 102% 80% 50% 43% 48% 10% 23% 18% 22% 9% 20% 29% 0% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander

Total Population Growth by Decade Denver-Aurora, CO Metro, 1980-2010 People of Color Non-Hispanic White 276,567 230,700 241,438 121,411 144,288 78,626 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010

U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2010 4,788,632 781,946 875,683 White Black Latino API Other -248,081-4,310,525

Change in Youth Population by Race/Ethnicity U.S. and Colorado, 2000-2010 White Black Latino API Other 50% 40% 39% 45% 41% 37% 30% 31% 31% 20% 10% 6% 0% -10% -10% -2% U.S. -3% Colorado -20%

Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2040 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 6% 12% 3% 9% 12% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 13% 12% 16% 12% 19% 12% 22% 12% 24% 13% Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander 50% Latino 40% 30% 20% 80% 76% 69% 64% 59% 55% 51% Black White 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Changing Demographics Colorado, 1980-2040 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 2% 12% 13% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 17% 4% 21% 4% 23% 4% 26% 4% 29% 4% Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander 50% Latino 40% 30% 20% 83% 81% 74% 70% 66% 62% 58% Black White 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Changing Demographics Denver-Aurora, CO Metro, 1980-2040 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 2% 11% 13% 5% 6% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 19% 5% 22% 5% 26% 5% 29% 5% 32% 6% Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino 40% 30% 20% 81% 79% 71% 66% 61% 56% 52% Black White 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Percent Foreign Born U.S., Colorado, and Denver-Aurora, CO Metro Denver-Aurora Metro Colorado United States 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 6.2% 4.5% 4.0% 7.9% 5.0% 4.3% 11.1% 10.9% 8.6% 12.7% 12.1% 9.7% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2008-2012

Race/Ethnicity by Nativity, Denver-Aurora, CO Metro, 2008-2012 API, U.S.-born 1.3% Latino, Immigrant 6.6% API, Immigrant 2.4% Other or mixed race 2.2% Latino, U.S.-born 16% Black 6% White 65%

*white tracts = no population

*white tracts = no population

Median Age by Race/Ethnicity, 2008-2012 U.S. Colorado 42 40 36 35 33 33 32 34 27 27 20 21 White API Black Native American and Alaska Native Latino Other or mixed race

THE GAP MATTERS

THE GAP MATTERS

Racial Generation Gap U.S. and Colorado, 1980 to 2010 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% US POC Youth Colorado POC Youth US POC Seniors Colorado POC Seniors The generation gap 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010

CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY percent of income 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 25% Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2012 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity, 2006-2010 20% 15% 10% 5% Top 1% (incomes above $394,000 in 2012) Top 5-1% (incomes between $161,000 and $394,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $114,000 and $161,000) 0% Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : September 15, 2013.

BUT ISN T COLORADO GROWING? Job Growth Rate U.S., Denver, and Colorado, 1979-2012 120% Denver-Aurora, CO Colorado United States 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) U.S. and Denver-Aurora, CO Metro, 1980-2010* Denver-Aurora, CO United States 18% 15% 11% 4% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile -1% -5% -11% -10% -8% -16%

BUT WE MOVE UP OVER TIME? Class Stickiness Income Inequality 31

AND WHAT ABOUT RACE? Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Colorado 1990 2008-2012 33% 37% 41% 41% 31% 19% 19% 23% 22% 24% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All

AND WHAT ABOUT RACE? Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Denver-Aurora, CO Metro 1990 2008-2012 32% 38% 39% 36% 15% 16% 26% 21% 21% 18% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All

AND WHAT ABOUT RACE? Educational Attainment (of Adults 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity Colorado, 2008-2012 45% 9% 24% 23% 11% 28% 13% 6% 20% 28% 48% 7% 16% 38% 9% 23% BA or higher AA degree Some college HS Diploma 19% 4% 27% 11% 33% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander 18% 21% 12% 9% All Less than HS

HOUSING BURDEN AS CHALLENGE Denver-Aurora Metro, 2008-2012 All Asian/Pacific Islander White Latino Black 65% 60% 55% 57% 50% 45% 46% 39% 35%

THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth for everyone.

EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/guardian/pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/ben-bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg

EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We have developed these ideas further in... http://growingtogethermetro.org/

AND WHY SO IMPORTANT NOW? http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/847889448.gif?1397145494&maxx=740&maxy=704

A WAY FORWARD: EQUITABLE GROWTH So it s a challenge for all of us: economic development folks and business leaders need to rethink the role of equity But equity proponents need to consider economic realities and constraints and propose feasible, growth-enhancing approaches And we need the workforce, land use, transit, financial and fiscal policies and practices to make this real

ROOTS AND RELATIONSHIPS

DATA AND DIALOGUE

VALUES AND VISION Speak to people s aspirations for the future not just their anger and anxieties Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental to economy not add-on s Have the courage to take risks, to convene unusual allies, to challenge systems and old beliefs

LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE

FOR MORE... @Prof_MPastor