ORI for the 3 rd Quarter of 2017 概要 2017 年三季度末中国银行离岸人民币指数 (ORI) 为 1.22%, 较上季度末微升 0.03 个百分点, 超出预测值 0.04 个百分点 离岸市场人民币存款规模继续回升 ; 贷款及融资活动有所下降 ; 境内资本市场开放继续带动离岸市场人民币计价权益类投资 Main Points The BOC Off-shore RMB Index of 3 rd quarter 2017 was 1.22%, 0.03 percentage points higher that the end of last quarter and 0.04 percentage points higher than forecast value. Offshore RMB deposits continued expanding; Loans and financing activities declined. The opening of domestic capital markets helped to activate the investment in equities that are denominated in RMB in the offshore markets. 分析 Analysis 市场概况 Market Condition 2017 年三季度, 人民币汇率升值有所加快, 三季度末中国外汇交易中心人民币汇率指数和参考 BIS 货币篮子 SDR 货币篮子的人民币汇率指数分别为 94.34 95.25 和 94.88, 较二季度末分别上升 2.11% 2.07% 和 1.24% 人民币兑美元汇率中间价三季度末为 6.6369, 较二季度末升值 3.41%( 图 1) 1 During the 3 rd quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate appreciated at accelerated pace. The RMB CFETS index and RMB exchange rate index based on CFETS BIS and SDR currencies baskets closed at 94.34 95.25 和 94.88 respectively, gaining 2.11% 2.07% 和 1.24% respectively from the end of last quarter. The mid price of CNY spot exchange rate against US dollar closed at 6.6369, an increase by 3.41% from the last quarter.(grahp 1)
图 1: 人民币参考 BIS 篮子 SDR 篮子货币汇率指数及人民币兑美元即期汇率 (RMB exchange rate index against BIS,SDR basket,cfets, and USD/CNY rate) 96.6 点 6.96 96.0 6.90 95.4 6.84 94.8 6.78 94.2 6.72 93.6 6.66 93.0 6.60 92.4 17-01-31 17-02-28 17-03-31 17-04-30 17-05-31 17-06-30 17-07-31 17-08-31 CFETS 人民币汇率指数人民币汇率指数 ( 参考 BIS 货币篮子 ) 人民币汇率指数 ( 参考 SDR 货币篮子 ) 中间价 : 美元兑人民币 ( 右轴 ) 境内外人民币的利差和汇差持续保持在较低水平 ( 图 2, 图 3), 香港市场人民币利率水平持续回落, 三季度大部分时间, 香港市场人民币短期利率低于大陆境内人民币利率水平, 反映出离岸人民币市场运行总体较为平稳 6.54 6.48 数据来源 :Wind 资讯 The spread between USD/CNY and USD/CNH and the spread between the RMB interest rates in the on-shore and off-shore markets were narrow through out the quarter. The RMB interest rate in the Hong Kong market declined continuously and for most of the time of the quarter the interest rate for CHY was below that for CNY, which manifested that the off-shore market was relatively stable. 图 2: CNY 及 CNH 兑美元汇率走势及汇差 (CNY/USD and CNH/USD rate and the spreads) 图 3:3 个月 SHIBOR 及 HIBOR 走势及利差 (3 month SHIBOR and HIBOR and the spreads) 图表数据来源 :Wind 2
境外人民币资金池 Overseas RMB Capital Pool 离岸人民币存款规模回升 2017 三季度末, 离岸人民币存款约为 1.88 万亿元, 离岸存款季末余额第二个季度保持环比回升 非居民人民币存款占全球离岸存款总量的比重约为 1.21%, 在人民币升值以及非居民人民币存款余额上升双重因素的影响下, 离岸存款中人民币存款的比重回升较为明显 The RMB deposits held by non-resident further increased. The offshore RMB deposits were RMB1.88trillion, which marked increases for a second quarter. The proportion of RMB deposits among the total amount of offshore deposits was 1.21%, due to an appreciation of RMB exchange rates and increase in the balance of the deposits, the share of RMB deposits in the total amount of offshore deposits went up quickly. 境外人民币债券 贷款和权益 Overseas Bonds, Loans and Equities 1. 离岸人民币债券 ( 不含 CD) 余额延续下跌趋势 三季度末, 境外人民币债券余额延续下跌趋势, 为连续第四个季度下降, 余额降至 3943 亿元, 较一季度末减少 350 亿元, 环比降幅为 8.15%, 较上季度有所收窄 2017 年二季度共计发行离岸人民币债券 ( 不含 CD)44 亿元, 较上季度萎缩近七成, 发行规模为前三季度最低 由于三季度离岸市场人民币利率总体保持在低位, 当季离岸人民币债券发行规模的萎缩可能只是暂时现象, 未来将逐步回升 I The outstanding amount of RMB bonds (not including CDs) in off-shore markets remianed in the downward trend. By the end of 3 rd quarter, the outstanding amount of RMB offshore bond was about RMB394.3billion, decrease by RMB35billion or 8.15% from last the last quarter, the scale of decrease narrowed. Issuance of RMB Offshore bonds (excluding CD issuance) totaled RMB4.4 billion, which marked a decreased by roughly 70% from the last quarter. Bond issuance amount was the lowest for the proceeding 2 quarters. As the CNH interest rate was at low level through out the quarter, the unexpected decrease might be temporal and bond issuance might gradually recover. 2. 境外承担或发放的人民币贷款及融资规模回落 其中, 香港和台湾地区人民币贷款及融资合计约为 1930 亿元, 较二季度回落约三成 境内机构向境外提供的人民币贷款三季度末余额为 4407 亿元, 较三季度末下降 58 亿元 II The RMB loans and financing undertaken or issued in offshore markets dropped. The balance of RMB loans and financing in Hong Kong and Taiwan totaled RMB193 billion, which decreased by roughly 30% from the last quarter. The outstanding amount of RMB loans extended to overseas borrowers and provided by domestic institutions was RMB 440.7billion, a decrease by 5.8billion from the last quarter nearly 10 percent from last quarter. 3
3. 境外持有的人民币计价权益市值增长三季度末, 境外持有的境内人民币股票市值较一季度末增长近两成至 10210 亿元, 在境外交易的以人民币计价的股票 基金等权益市值较二季度末上升近一成, 境外持有的人民币计价权益市值占全球资本市场的比重继续保持上升 III The market value of equities traded in RMB grew. At the end of the 3 rd quarter 2017, the market value of equities traded in domestic market and held by overseas investors increased by nearly 20% to RMB 1021billion. The value of equity or funds denominated in RMB and traded outside China rose by roughly 10% from the end of the 2 nd quarter. The share of value of equities denominated in RMB in the offshore markets further increased. 人民币外汇交易 RMB Foreign Exchange Trading 三季度全球外汇交易量较二季度有所下降, 而同期人民币外汇交易量保持上升, 人民币外汇交易占同期全球外汇交易量的份额约为 3.01% In the 3 rd quarter, global foreign exchange trading value declined while RMB foreign exchange trading increased, the value of RMB exchange transactions accounted for about 3.01% of global foreign exchange transactions. 人民币计入外汇储备的情况 RMB as Reserve Currency 三季度末人民币计入外储的规模初步测算突破 1000 亿美元, 较二季度末进一步增长, 占全球官方储备资产的比重为 1.07%, 与二季度基本持平 By the end of 3 rd quarter, it was estimated that about USD100 billion equivalent value of RMB denominated assets were included into the official foreign exchange reserves, which account for 1.07% of the total of the global exchange reserve assets. 各离岸人民币中心的发展概况 RMB Offshore Market Dynamics 1. 人民币存款 三季度末, 港澳台地区人民币存款合计 8550 亿元, 较上季度末增加 215 亿元 ; 新加坡人民币存款余额预计约为 1435 亿元, 较上季末微增 55 亿元 ; 韩国人民币存款约 67 亿元, 较上年末下降 17 亿元 2. 离岸人民币债券 三季度, 中国大陆发行人未发行离岸人民币债券, 日本 韩国 欧洲及美国等地区的发行人合计发行离岸人民币债券 17 亿元 I Changes in the overseas deposits. By the end of the 2 nd quarter, the total deposits in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao was RMB855 billion, an increase by RMB21.5billion from the end of last quarter, the outstanding amount of RMB deposits in Singapore was estimated to be around RMB143.5 billion, a slight increase by RMB5.5billion, the balance of RMB deposit in South Korea was RMB6.7 billion, a decrease by RMB1.7 billion. II Issuance of RMB bonds in the offshore market. During the 3 rd quarter, issuance of RMB bonds in off shore markets by issuers from Japan, Korea, European countries and United States totaled RMB 1.7 billion. 4
点评 离岸市场总体保持趋稳向好三季度境内外人民币汇差 利差总体保持在较低水平, 境内外人民币汇率走向较为同步, 离岸人民币市场利率水平逐步回落, 离岸人民币市场运行总体稳定 离岸人民币市场多个指标呈现回稳上行, 如港澳台等主要离岸市场的人民币存款继续回升, 人民币外汇交易量逆势增长 境外计价权益持续增加等, 继续延续上半年的回稳向好趋势 贷款融资有所回落, 离岸金融市场融资功能有待持续强化三季度, 离岸市场的贷款融资活动有所减弱, 离岸债券市场规模仍在继续下行, 贷款余额较上季度回落 如果境外人民币利率水平逐步回落的趋势在四季度保持延续, 离岸市场相对较低的人民币融资成本可能吸引离岸市场融资活动逐步回升 Comments The offshore RMB market generally maintained healthy growth. The CNY and CNH interest rate and exchange rate moved in convergence and the margins were generally narrow through out the 3 rd quarter. The CNH interest rates declined gradually, and the offshore RMB market was stable. Several indicators showed signs of positive growth. I.e. The RMB deposits in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased, RMB exchange volume increased despite of a decrease in the total value of global FX transactions, the value of RMB denominated equities in the offshore markets increase, etc. The offshore market was in steady growth. Financing activities declined and the fund raising function of the RMB offshore markets needs to be further strengthened. The 3 rd quarter saw the financing activities and loans in the RMB offshore market decline from the last quarter. The outstanding amount of RMB bonds and RMB loans further declined. If the CNH interest rate is at low lever for the 4 th quarter, the low financing cost in the offshore market may attract more financing activities and help the market to recover gradually. 境内资本市场持续带动离岸市场发展境外配臵 A 股的热情继续升温, 三季度末境外持有的 A 股市值首次突破 1 万亿元 在此带动下, 离岸市场中人民币计价的权益市值继续上升, 较二季度末增长近一成, 境内资本市场投资吸引力的上升带动了离岸人民币市场上人民币计价权益类产品数量的增加和市值的上涨, 为离岸市场发展带来新动力 The growth of domestic capital market gave impetus to the expansion of the offshore market. The enthusiasm of the overseas investors placing funds with A share remained high. The market value of A shares held by overseas investors exceeded RMB100 billion for the first time. The market value of RMB denominated equities increased by roughly 10%. The growth of domestic capital market brought about increases in both the quantities and the value of RMB denominated equities products and gave rise to further expansion of the offshore markets. 5
预计四季度离岸人民币市场总体仍将保持平稳运行局面四季度, 人民币升值势头有所放缓, 汇率双向波动更为明显, 总体保持大体均衡, 预计离岸人民币市场呈现总体持稳的格局, 预测离岸指数维持在 1.22% 左右 The offshore RMB markets will stabilize in the 4 th quarter. In the 4 th quarter, the pace of RMB exchange rate appreciation slowed, the exchange rate fluctuated in dual directions. The offshore RMB market is most likely to stabilize and we estimate the ORI will be around 1.22%. 6
如需了解更多, 敬请联络 : Please contact us: 中国银行贸易金融部跨境人民币团队电话 :+86 10 6659 2278 电邮 :winiam@bankofchina.com 或访问我们的网址 : http://www.bankofchina.com/fimarkets/cri/ Cross-border RMB team, Global Trade Service Department of Bank of China Phone:+86 10 6659 2278 Email:winiam@bankofchina.com Website: http://www.bankofchina.com/fimarket s/cri/ 关于离岸人民币指数 : 定义 : 中国银行离岸人民币指数, 英文全称为 BOC Offshore RMB Index, 英文简写标识为 ORI, 是反映人民币在国际金融市场上的发展水平 指示人民币国际化发展状况的指数 指数框架 :ORI 指数以人民币行使价值储藏货币 融资货币 投资货币 储备货币 交易货币等五项国际货币职能为出发点, 共设臵五类指标, 涵盖离岸人民币存贷款比重 人民币计入外汇储备的水平 人民币计价国际债券和国际权益投资份额等指标, 并对这五类指标进行综合加权计算 主要特点 关注离岸市场 ORI 指数是对人民币在离岸金融市场上资金存量规模 资金运用状况 金融工具使用等方面发展水平的综合评价 反映发展进程 ORI 指数基本使用存量指标, 即报告期末各项资产负债的余额数据来计算, 反映截至该时点人民币国际化的进展 展现形式直观 ORI 指数以各项离岸金融市场活动中人民币占各种货币的比重进行综合加权计算, 以较为直观的方式反映人民币在国际金融市场上的发展水平 7
关于中国银行 : 中国银行是中国国际化和多元化程度最高的银行, 海外机构覆盖 53 多个国家和地区 中国银行是人民币国际化业务最活跃的商业银行之一, 已形成了较为完善的人民币产品线, 跨境人民币结算市场份额领先 About Us: BOC is the most international and diversified bank in China, with its overseas institutions covering more than 53 countries and regions. BOC is among the most active international RMB bank service providers, forming mature RMB product lines. Bank of China takes the largest market share of China s cross-border RMB settlement businesses. 本报告有关 中国银行离岸人民币指数 (ORI) 的知识产权属中国银行股份有限公司所有 如引用本指数, 需注明出处为中国银行股份有限公司, 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 删节和修改 本报告内容及观点仅供参考, 不构成任何投资建议 对于本报告所提供信息所导致的任何直接的或者间接的投资盈亏后果, 中国银行股份有限公司不承担任何责任 8