Nova Scotia Labour Market Review

2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review b

This publication is available online at labourmarketinfo.ednet.ns.ca. This material may be freely copied for educational purposes. Additional copies may be ordered by contacting labourmarketinfo@gov.ns.ca Crown Copyright Province of Nova Scotia, 2006 Nova Scotia Department of Education Skills and Learning Branch ISSN 1718-9195

2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review Employment Employment growth slows in 2005 Nova Scotia s employment grew strongly between 2001 and 2004, averaging 2.1%. This was slightly ahead of growth in Ontario and just short of the national average. However, employment growth slowed to 0.2% in 2005. This has been in part due to: a slowdown in the expansion of call centers; some decline in residential construction activity (from historically high levels of the early 2000s); a decline in tourism activity and; the negative impact of a strong CAN dollar which has cut significantly into manufacturing employment. (Figure 1: Nova Scotia Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2001 2005) There were 443,100 Nova Scotians employed in 2005 and 16,169,722 persons employed nationally. Figure 2: Nova Scotia Average Annual Employment, 2001 2005, 15 years and over 450,000 440,000 430,000 420,000 410,000 415,200 422,900 431,200 442,200 443,100 Figure 1: Nova Scotia Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2001 2005 3% 2% 1% 1. 1.9% 2. Between 2001 and 2005, the number of people employed in Nova Scotia increased by 27,900 or 6.7%. Comparatively, the number of people employed nationally increased by 1,223,500 or 8.2%. (Figure 2: Nova Scotia Average Annual Employment, 2001 2005) Nova Scotia s employment rate is lower than that of the national average. In 2005, Nova Scotia s employment rate was 58.2% compared to the national average of 62.7%. (Figure 3: Nova Scotia and Canada Employment Rates, 2001 2005) 2.6% 0.2% 400,000 Figure 3: Nova Scotia and Canada Employment Rates, 2001 2005 Canada Nova Scotia 85% 61.1 55.9 61.7 56.6 62.4 57.3 62.7 58.4 62.7 58.2 6 45% 3 15% 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review 1

Unemployment Lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic provinces Nova Scotia has had the lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic provinces since 1997. However, unemployment rates have been higher than the national average. In 2005, the unemployment rate was 8.4% in Nova Scotia compared to 6.8% nationally. (Figure 4: Provincial and National Unemployment Rates, 2005) Economic Regions The Halifax region has the lowest unemployment rate The Halifax region has had the lowest unemployment rate in Nova Scotia for the past five years. In 2005, Halifax s unemployment rate was 5.8%. The Cape Breton region has the highest unemployment rate in the province 14.4% in 2005. (Figure 6: Nova Scotia Unemployment Rates by Economic Region, 2001 2005) Figure 4: Provincial and National Unemployment Rates, 2005 Unemployment rate 2005, ages 15 years and over 2 16% 12% 8% 4% 6.8 15.2 10.8 8.4 9.7 8.3 CA NF PE NS NB QE ON MN SK AB BC 6.6 4.8 5.1 3.9 5.9 Figure 6: Nova Scotia Unemployment Rates by Economic Region, 2001 2005 2 16% 12% 8% 4% Cape Breton Southern North Shore Annapolis Valley Halifax, 2005 Despite a lower rate of employment growth, the unemployment rate continued to decline in 2005 due to a decline in the number of people in the labour force. Since 2001, Nova Scotia s unemployment rates have been declining, from 9.7% in 2001 to 8.4% in 2005. (Figure 5: Nova Scotia and Canada Unemployment Rates, 2001 2005) Figure 5: Nova Scotia and Canada Unemployment Rates, 2001 2005 Canada Nova Scotia 1 9.7 9.6 8% 6% 4% 7.2 7.7 7.6 9.1 7.2 8.8 6.8 8.4 Between 2001 and 2004, there was little change in Cape Breton s employment (-0.3%), while in other regions in the province employment was greater than the national average. The strongest growth was in the Southern (3.5%), North Shore (2.4%) and Annapolis Valley (2.4%) regions, followed by Halifax (2.2%). In 2005, Nova Scotia s employment growth declined to 0.2% which was significantly lower than the national average of 1.4%. Cape Breton s employment growth was 6.5% in 2005, which is a reversal of the trend from the 2001 to 2004 period. The Southern and Annapolis Valley regions also saw a reversal of 2001 to 2004 trends. In 2005, employment in these regions declined by 4.5% for the Southern Region and 2.4% for the Annapolis Valley Region. (Figure 7: Employment Growth, Canada and Nova Scotia Economic Regions, 2001 2004 and 2005) 2% 0 Figure 7: Employment Growth, Canada and Nova Scotia Economic Regions, 2001 2004 and 2005 Annual Average Employment Growth 2001-2004 Employment Growth 2004-2005, 2005 9% 6% 3% -3% 2.2 1.4 2.1 0.2-0.3 6.5 2.4 1.9 2.4-2.4 3.5 2.2 0.1-6% Canada Nova Scotia Cape Breton North Shore Annapolis Valley -4.5 Southern Halifax, 2005 2 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review

Industries The services producing sector is the greatest source of employment growth Nova Scotia has a higher percentage of employment in the services producing sector than the national average (79.4% vs. 75.2% nationally). Employment in the goods producing sector has changed little in the past 30 years. The services producing sector has been the primary source of employment growth, and this pattern can be expected to continue. Figure 8: Goods and Services Producing Sector Canada and Nova Scotia, Percentage of Employment 2005 Nova Scotia Canada 85% 79.4 75.2 6 45% 3 15% Services Producing Sector 20.6 24.8 Goods Producing Sector, 2005 Nationally there has been long term growth in the goods producing sector, but the services producing sector is the largest source of employment growth. (Figure 8: Goods and Services Producing Sector Canada and Nova Scotia, Percentage of Employment 2005) Greatest increase in employment in health care and social assistance and business, building and other support services Between 2001 and 2005, the industries that saw the greatest increases in employment in Nova Scotia were health care and social assistance (6,700 jobs), business, building and other support services, including call centers (6,700 jobs) and accommodation and food services (4,100 jobs). The industry groups that saw the greatest decreases in employment were information, culture and recreation (-2,000 jobs), manufacturing (-1,900 jobs) and agriculture (-1,700 jobs). (Figure 9: Nova Scotia Employment by Industry Group 2001-2005) Figure 9: Nova Scotia Employment by Industry Group, 2001-2005 Change in Percentage 2001 2005 2001 2005 Employment Change in Unemployment Unemployment Industry Group Employment Employment 2001-2005 Employment rate rate Public administration 26,600 27,400 800 3% 4.3 4.9 Other services 19,200 20,800 1,600 8% 6.3 6.3 Accommodation and food services 27,500 31,600 4,100 15% 9.2 10.7 Information, culture and recreation 17,800 15,800-2,000-11% 7.8 8.1 Health care and social assistance 49,300 56,000 6,700 14% 3.3 2.1 Educational services 33,000 35,300 2,300 7% 3.5 4.6 Business, building and other support services 17,500 24,200 6,700 38% 12.9 9.7 Professional, scientific and technical services 17,700 20,200 2,500 14% 4.8 5.6 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 20,400 21,800 1,400 7% 4.7 3.1 Transportation and warehousing 20,500 21,000 500 2% 8.5 4.5 Wholesale and retail trade 75,500 77,800 2,300 3% 5.5 4.8 Manufacturing 42,200 40,300-1,900-5% 9.2 8.8 Construction 24,600 27,700 3,100 13% 15.8 11.5 Utilities 2,700 2,400-300 -11% n/a n/a Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas 13,200 15,000 1,800 14% 14.8 17.1 Agriculture 7,500 5,800-1,700-23% 10.7 17.1 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review 3

Agriculture and forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas had the highest unemployment rates in Nova Scotia in 2005 at 17.1%. As these are largely seasonal industries, higher unemployment rates can be expected. The industries with the lowest unemployment rates were health care and social assistance at 2.1% and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing at 3.1%. (Figure 9: Nova Scotia Employment by Industry Group, 2001-2005 on the previous page) Provincial and national industry employment growth differs considerably A comparison of employment growth by industry from 2001 to 2005 reveals that Nova Scotia differs from national industry growth figures in several significant ways. Employment growth in the following sectors has exceeded the national average: real estate and leasing (55.6% vs. 16.5% nationally); business, building and other support services (38.3% vs. 21.8% nationally); accommodation and food services (14.9% vs. 6.5% nationally); and professional, scientific and technical services (14.1% vs. 6.4% nationally). (Figure 10: Employment Growth by Industry, 2001 2005) Nova Scotia s employment growth has fallen short of the national average in the following sectors: agriculture (-22.7% vs. 6.3% nationally); information, culture and recreation (-11.2% vs. 3.6% nationally); utilities (-11.1% vs. 0.7% nationally); and finance and insurance (-9.4% vs. 11.2% nationally). (Figure 10: Employment Growth by Industry, 2001 2005) Figure 10: Employment Growth by Industry, 2001 2005 Canada Nova Scotia Public administration 3.0 6.1 Other services 4.0 8.3 Accommodation and food services 6.5 14.9 Information, culture and recreation -11.2 3.6 Health care and social assistance 12.6 13.6 Educational services 7.0 12.7 Business, building and other support services 21.8 38.3 Professional, scientific and technical services 6.4 14.1 Real estate and leasing 16.5 55.6 Finance and insurance -9.4 11.2 Transportation and warehousing 2.3 2.4 Wholesale and retail trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas -11.1-1.0-4.5 0.7 3.0 8.9 12.6 9.9 13.6 23.7 Agriculture -22.7 6.3-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review

Occupations Employment growth strongest in the health occupations The health occupations in Nova Scotia saw the greatest amount of employment growth over the 2001 to 2005 period (18.1% vs. 18.2% nationally). Demand for the health occupations is expected to continue due to increasing consumption of health care services by Nova Scotia s aging population. Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport as well as business, finance and administrative occupations also saw strong employment growth, 13. and 10.1% respectively. Nova Scotia s employment growth rates differed significantly from national averages for certain occupational groups. Employment growth for occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities was 7. provincially and -0.5% nationally. Employment growth for trades, transport and equipment operators was 2.7% provincially and 8.4% nationally. (Figure 11: Employment Growth by Occupational Group, 2001-2005) In 2005, management occupations and occupations in social science, government service and religion had the lowest unemployment rates at 2.2% and 3.7% respectively. (Figure 12: Nova Scotia Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2001-2005, on the next page) Figure 11: Employment Growth by Occupational Group, 2001 2005 Nova Scotia Canada Total, all occupations Management occupations Business, finance and administrative occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Health occupations Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Sales and service occupations 3.1 5.5 6.4 6.7 7.6 8.2 8.6 8.8 10.1 9.5 9.3 11.7 13.0 14.3 18.1 18.2 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Occupations unique to primary industry Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities -0.5 2.7 3.8 7.0 8.4 8.4-5% 0 5% 1 15% 2 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review 5

Figure 12: Nova Scotia Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2001-2005 Change in Percentage 2001 2005 2001 2005 Employment Change in Unemployment Unemployment Nova Scotia Occupational Group Employment Employment 2001-2005 Employment rate rate Total, all occupations 415,200 443,100 27,900 6.7 9.7 8.4 Management occupations 32,600 35,400 2,800 8.6 2.7 2.2 Business, finance and administrative occupations 68,200 75,100 6,900 10.1 5.9 5.2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 23,500 24,800 1,300 5.5 4.5 5 Health occupations 28,200 33,300 5,100 18.1 2.4 n/a Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 33,800 37,000 3,200 9.5 2.9 3.7 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 10,000 11,300 1,300 13.0 8.3 6.6 Sales and service occupations 116,300 119,900 3,600 3.1 7.6 7.1 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 64,100 65,800 1,700 2.7 11.8 9.1 Occupations Unique to Primary Industry 18,500 19,200 700 3.8 15.5 20.7 Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 20,000 21,400 1,400 7.0 12.3 10.4, 2005 Education Greater percentage of population with post secondary credentials and a greater percentage of population without a high school diploma than the national average Figure 13: Nova Scotia s Labour Force, Educational Attainment Ages 25 to 64, 2005 Canada Nova Scotia 5 39.5 4 35.0 3 23.3 20.2 2 18.0 19.5 17.1 14.8 1 6.7 5.9 Nova Scotia fares well relative to the rest of Canada when comparing the percent of the population with post secondary credentials. In 2005, 59. of Nova Scotians aged 25 to 64 had a post-secondary certificate, diploma or degree, slightly above the national average (58.3%). less than high school high school graduate some post secondary post-secondary certificate or diploma university degree, 2005 In contrast, there are more Nova Scotians with lower levels of education than the national average. In 2005, 18. of Nova Scotians aged 25 to 64 did not have a high school diploma, compared to 14.8% nationally. (Figure 13: Nova Scotia s Labour Force, Educational Attainment Ages 25 to 64, 2005) 6 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review

Highest adult literacy scores in the Atlantic provinces The 2003 International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS) measured the literacy, numeracy and problem solving skills of the Canadian population. Literacy, numeracy and problem solving are essential skills in the workplace and are fundamental to economic growth and productivity. Level 4/5 performance denotes the highest proficiency levels and Level 1 denotes the lowest. The survey results showed that Nova Scotia has average scores that are virtually the same as the Canadian averages. (Figure 14: Nova Scotia Adult Literacy, 2003) The survey also showed that Nova Scotia has adult literacy scores that were higher than those of the other Atlantic provinces. Figure 14: Nova Scotia Adult Literacy, 2003 Proficiency Type Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Prose Canada 19.9% 27.8% 35.4% 17. Nova Scotia 17.3% 27.5% 38.4% 16.8% Document Use Canada 21.5% 27.1% 33.5% 17.9% Nova Scotia 19.7% 27.5% 35.3% 17.5% Numeracy Canada 25.5% 29.6% 30.1% 14.7% Nova Scotia 26. 30.5% 30.8% 12.8% Problem Solving Canada 35.9% 36.3% 23.1% 4.6% Nova Scotia 35.4% 38.3% 22.1% 4.2% Source: Statistics Canada, International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey, 2003 Demographics Low natural rate of population increase The Nova Scotia economy and labour market will be strongly affected by demographic change in coming years. The number of births has declined substantially since 1990, while the number of deaths has risen steadily. The natural rate of population growth has fallen, so that in 2005 population growth was negligible (167 persons). In coming years, this number can be expected to continue to decline until there are more deaths than births, making the natural rate of population increase negative. In 2005, Nova Scotia s natural rate of population increase was significantly lower than the national average (0.02% vs. 0.34% nationally). (Figure 15: Average Annual Births and Deaths, Nova Scotia, 2001 2005) Net immigration currently makes a small contribution to population and labour force size Between 2001 and 2005, immigration averaged 1,605, while emigration averaged 880. Net international migration to Nova Scotia averaged 729. Compared to national averages, Nova Scotia s rate of immigration is small relative to the size of its population. (Figure 16: Nova Scotia Immigration, 2001 2005) Figure 16: Nova Scotia Immigration, 2001 2005 Annual Number of Immigrants Annual Number of Total Emigrants Net Immigration 2,000 Figure 15: Average Annual Births and Deaths, Nova Scotia, 2001 2005 Annual Number of Births Annual Number of Deaths 9,000 8,922 8,693 8,635 8,628 8,600 8,580 8,413 8,271 8,200 8,093 7,922 7,847 7,800 7,600 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 1,761 1,049 712 1,615 895 720 1,257 808 449 1,707 822 885 1,705 828 877 Data Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Statistics 7,200 Data Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Statistics 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review 7

Net inter-provincial migration influenced by economic conditions Between 2001 and 2005, average inter-provincial in-migration was 15,933 and average inter-provincial out-migration was 16,675. Average net inter-provincial migration was -742, which offset population increases from international migration to the province during 2001 to 2005. Variations in inter-provincial migration are in part due to economic conditions in the province, increasing during years when the economy is strong and decreasing during years when it is weaker. (Figure 17: Nova Scotia Interprovincial Migration, 2001 2005) Figure 17: Nova Scotia Interprovincial Migration, 2001 2005 Annual Number of Interprovincial In-Migrants Net Interprovincial Migration 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000 Data Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Statistics High levels of inter-provincial outmigration related to employment opportunities in other provinces Nova Scotia has a higher unemployment rate (8.5% vs. 6.8% nationally), a lower employment rate (58.2% vs. 62.7% nationally), and a lower participation rate (63.6% vs. 67.2% nationally) than the national average. Alberta stands out as a particularly strong draw for inter-provincial migration with the lowest unemployment rate in the country indicating strong demand for labour in the province. (Figure 18: Labour Force Statistics, 2005) Figure 18: Labour Force Statistics, 2005 Canada Nova Scotia Alberta 85% 6 45% 3 15,313 17,390-2,077 16,331 17,229-898 67.2 Annual Number of Interprovincial Out-Migrants 16,686 16,176 510 63.6 72.7 15,087 15,859-772 16,251 16,724-473 62.7 58.2 69.8 Older population means older labour force Nova Scotia stands out as having small youth cohort and a large older cohort. In comparison with national figures, Nova Scotia has a higher percentage of people who are 45 years of age or older. Therefore, older workers are a large and growing component of the provincial labour force. (Figure 19: Age Distributions by Percentage of Population, Canada and Nova Scotia 2005) Figure 19: Age Distributions by Percentage of Population, Canada and Nova Scotia 2005 Canada Nova Scotia 5 4 3 2 1 Increasing employment rates for older workers Employment rates for Nova Scotians aged 45 and older have been increasing for the past few years. In 2005, the employment rate for Nova Scotians aged 45 to 64 was 64%. This is less than the national average of 69.6%. Considering Nova Scotia s demographic outlook, the participation of older workers in the labour force will be increasingly important in the coming years. (Figure 20: Nova Scotia Employment Rates by Age Group, 2003 2005) Figure 20: Nova Scotia Employment Rates by Age Group, 2003 2005 2003 2004 2005 10 8 6 4 2 16.59 16.24 35.97 33.30 32.23 33.94 15.21 16.54 15 to 24 years 24 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 years and over 56.8 57.2 56.4 79.0 79.5 79.5, 2005 60.8 63.8 64.0 4.3 4.7 5.3 15 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 + 15% 6.8 8.4 3.9 Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Employment Rate, 2005 8 2005 Nova Scotia Labour Market Review

For more information on Nova Scotia s labour market see the following websites: Career Options: novascotiacareeroptions.ca Labour Market Information Portal: labourmarketinfo.ednet.ns.ca Recent career publications from the Skills and Learning Branch: Nova Scotia Career Guide for Students 2005/2006 Nova Scotia Career Guide for Adults 2006 Career Planning: a website guide for adults 2005 Career Planning: a website guide to students 2006