Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents August 18 September 12, 18 Susan Maklari Analyst (212) 325-3134 susan.maklari@credit-suisse.com Christopher Kalata (212) 325-6654 christopher.kalata@credit-suisse.com Amanda Luper (212) 325-269 amanda.luper@credit-suisse.com Out of the Pool, but Back to School: In order to better assess conditions across the largest housing markets in the US, we surveyed ~ real estate agents. Our August declined 4pts YOY to 33. This is unchanged sequentially and 1pt below the historical average for the month, as our respondents noted back-to-school season, inclement weather and buyer fatigue from the persistent inventory shortage. Regional variations are growing increasingly apparent with areas of relative affordability (especially Texas and North Carolina) seeing greater demand vs. higher cost west coast MSAs. Regionally, San Antonio, Raleigh and Austin saw the largest traffic gains while Los Angeles, Las Vegas and the Inland Empire declined YOY. It s a Summer Price Slowdown: Our declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling 13pts YOY, indicating the rate of appreciation is slowing despite a sequential rise. That said, tight inventory levels will likely provide support. Notably, this comes as several respondents cited builders efforts to meet demand by putting affordable product on-the-ground leading more buyers to consider new construction. We will continue to monitor affordability pressures on the broader market as builders seek to balance between pace and price. Still Room to Go in the Housing Cycle: We believe the housing upturn remains intact and look for growth to be driven by entry-level and first-time buyer demand. Our Outperform-rated names are DHI, LEN, PHM and MTH. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Executive Sum m ary: The Dog Days of Sum m er August Declines 4pts YOY, to 33: This month s reading held steady sequentially and was 1pt below the long-term historical average for August. Besides weather issues (wildfires, heat and rain) and back-to-school season, agents cited buyer fatigue caused by the severe inventory shortage. Our surveyed realtors continue to report strength at the entry-level price points, with multiple offers on listings and further migration to areas of relative affordability (San Antonio and Raleigh). Although affordability pressures are rising, realtors pointed to buyers willingness to make adjustments including decreasing square footage, searching further in the geographic periphery and opting for condo/townhome product. Notably, several agents commented on builders efforts to put entry-level homes on-the-ground in an effort to meet demand. Summer slowdown hits in full-force with traffic levels at or above agents expectations in 2 out of the top markets (vs 5 last month): The Index rose 1+ points YOY in 4 MSAs (San Antonio, Raleigh, Austin and Houston), Was up 1 to down 5 points YOY in 7 (Charlotte, Orlando, Dallas, Nashville, Washington DC, Denver and New York - NJ), Was down 5+ points YOY in the remaining 9 (Seattle, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and the Inland Empire). Down 13pts YOY, to 53: Although still rising sequentially, the pace of appreciation continues to moderate as reflected in our Index declining for the fourth consecutive month. In turn, prices rose year over year in eight of our 37 surveyed markets. That said, supply constraints and tight inventory levels will likely provide support. Agents noted sluggish demand at the luxury price points as well as decreased interest from foreign buyers (ie. Miami). Realtors Provide On-the-Ground Read on Conditions: We survey local agents on a monthly basis in order to better gauge changes in supply and demand. Results are used to calculate a diffusion index, with a reading of 5+ indicating an improvement. <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month Note: Please see appendix for a detailed description of our survey and index calculation methodology. Source: Credit Suisse
August Top Sum m ary Demand Led by Entry-Level Product Top MSAs Prior Month Buyer Traffic Index Home Price Index Home Listings Index Sell Time Index Builder Incentives Index 1 San Antonio, TX 7(+6) 71 (+46) 64 (-19) 5 () 42 (+25) 43 (+35) 2 Raleigh, NC 2(+) (+32) 45 (-38) 67 (-8) 35 (+5) 5 (+8) 3 Austin, TX 3(+) 5 (+28) 75 (+42) 25 (+3) 42 (+25) 42 (+19) 4 Houston, TX 5(+1) 3 (+19) 47 (+6) 37 (+5) 17 (-6) 27 (-14) 5 Charlotte, NC 14(+9) 35 (+7) 45 (-16) (-7) 45 (-11) 3 (-14) 6 Orlando, FL 13(+7) 3 (+1) 55 (-16) 64 () 48 (+5) 38 (-13) 7 Dallas, TX 1(-6) () 43 (-27) 54 (-6) 21 (-49) 21 (-9) 8 Nashville, TN 11(+3) 38 () 5 () 13 (-25) 38 (-25) 5 (+13) 9 Washington, DC 15(+6) 38 () 42 (-3) 5 () 29 (+1) 46 (+3) 1 Denver, CO 8(-2) 31 (-4) 57 (+7) 25 (-9) 25 (-4) 38 (-1) 11 New York-Northern NJ 19(+8) 32 (-4) 44 (-15) 44 (-14) 3 (-18) 39 (-15) 12 Seattle, WA (+8) 32 (-7) 27 (-5) 41 (-17) 5 (-38) 41 (-13) 13 Atlanta, GA 6(-7) 25 (-11) 45 (-15) 57 (-16) 36 (-5) 29 (-8) 14 Jacksonville, FL 9(-5) 46 (-11) 54 (-18) 67 (+2) 38 (-33) 5 (+21) 15 Phoenix, AZ 4(-11) 37 (-13) (-1) 52 (-) 42 (-13) (-6) 16 Miami, FL 1(-6) (-15) 47 (+7) 31 (+6) 23 (+9) 34 (+3) 17 Tampa, FL 17(+) 14 (-21) 46 (-44) 54 (-26) 32 (-33) 39 (+2) 18 Los Angeles, CA 16(-2) 12 (-24) 41 (-1) 33 (-35) 12 (-22) 48 (-4) 19 Las Vegas, NV 12(-7) 28 (-3) 83 (-13) 44 (-21) 44 (-17) 28 (-11) Inland Empire, CA 18(-2) (-33) 25 (-42) 38 (-24) 13 (-38) 5 (+17) Agent Highlights Agents reported strong demand for homes at entry-level price points as expanding employment opportunities bring prospective buyers to the MSA. Although home prices rose sequentially, affordability pressures have not impacted demand. Back to school season and rainy weather kept buyer traffic below agents' expectations this month. That said, realtors noted buyers moving to the MSA for better quality of life alongside further corporate relocations. Demand met agents' expectations for August as job growth drives buyer traffic. Some cited entry-level buyers looking further in neighborhood outskirts in order to purchase. Still high prices are causing first-time buyers to turn towards new construction or purchase further in the periphery. Agents attributed the demand lull to back-to-school season. Although limited inventory led to buyer fatigue, realtors cited demand outpacing supply and lower-priced homes selling quickly. In turn, relative affordability continues to attract buyers to the MSA. Elevated home prices, limited supply and back-to-school held traffic below agents' expectations. Several noted builders adding entry-level product in an effort to meet demand. Realtors reported a shortage of available product under $3k, leading to limited choices for the entry-level buyer. As such, buyers at this price point are searching for longer before purchasing. Despite commentary focusing on rising rates and affordability constraints, traffic levels were unchanged year over year. Additionally, families are settling in for the start of the school year. Although unchanged year over year, our increased sequentially as agents saw home prices lower than in July. The majority saw the time needed to sell a home increase given limited affordable options. Agents noted an increase in the number of listings perhaps encouraging some buyers to return to the market. Realtors also cited builders seeking to add entry-level product in an effort to meet demand at the more affordable price points. Several realtors cited sluggishness and longer days on market at the higher-end price points (above $75k). Although down YoY, traffic levels improved sequentially. Comments centered on declining home prices given the majority of agents saw list prices below their expectations this month. This comes as hiring by Amazon, Google and Microsoft continues to support fundamental demand. End of summer vacations and heat muted traffic levels this month. Realtors highlighted pent-up demand although affordability constraints inside the I-285 area are increasing. Traffic came in just below agent's expectations with demand for entry-level product still outpacing supply. That said, realtors saw multiple offers on lower-priced homes causing some buyer fatigue. A larger number of first-time buyers are relocating to the Phoenix MSA, driven by increased employment opportunities. Agents reported prices higher sequentially alongside rising rents. Realtors continue to highlight decreased demand from international buyers leading to an oversupply of high-end product. In turn, higher home prices mean more money is needed to save for a down payment. Despite the drop in our, agents reported multiple offers on affordably-priced product. As such, limited inventory is likely constraining demand levels. Consistent with trends over the past year, realtors cited movement of buyers to areas of greater relative affordability in Texas, Nevada and Arizona. One agent noted an increase in buyers looking for manufactured homes. Rising prices and rates are pushing some buyers to the sidelines. That said, realtors saw entry-level product moving quickly with multiple offers on homes. Demand declined year over year as 75% of surveyed agents saw an increase in the length of time needed to sell a home. Notably, prices were lower than the prior month for the first time in 18. Note: s ranked according to YOY change in Source: Credit Suisse
Table of Contents Key Housing s: Key Housing s Continued: 5 Atlanta, Georgia 27 New York-Northern New Jersey 6 Austin, Texas 28 Orlando, Florida 7 Baltimore, Maryland 29 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 8 Boston, Massachusetts 3 Phoenix, Arizona 9 Charleston, South Carolina 31 Portland, Oregon 1 Charlotte, North Carolina 32 Raleigh, North Carolina 11 Chicago, Illinois 33 Sacramento, California 12 Cincinnatti, OH 34 San Antonio, Texas 13 Columbus, OH 35 San Diego, California 14 Dallas, Texas 36 San Francisco, California 15 Denver, Colorado 37 Sarasota, Florida 16 Detroit, Michigan 38 Seattle, Washington 17 Fort Myers, Florida 39 Tampa, Florida 18 Houston, Texas Tucson, Arizona 19 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 41 Washington, D.C. Jacksonville, Florida 21 Kansas City, Missouri 42 Appendix: 22 Las Vegas, Nevada 43 Historical Trends by 23 Los Angeles, California 48 Agent Recommendations 24 Miami, Florida 5 Survey Methodology 25 Minneapolis, Minnesota 51 Disclosures 26 Nashville, Tennessee
Atlanta, GA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The fell to 25 from 36 in August 17: Although flat sequentially, demand declined YoY as agents noted buyer fatigue from rising rates and elevated home prices. The declined to 45 from last year. August is generally a slow time due to summer vacations, hot weather and school starting. Higher interest rates and a lack of buyer motivation. More traffic per listing due to the low inventory. Affordability inside the I-285 area is getting harder. Higher prices reducing the number of qualified buyers, but pentup demand is compensating. Buyers are downsizing to be in the right locations. 3 rd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 24,58 % 1 D.R. Horton 3,45 17.8% 7.3% % 52% 43% 41% 45% 33% 36% 36% 38% 2 Century Communities 1,316 6.8% 36.2% % 24% 23% 18% 3 PulteGroup 1,39 5.3% 4.9% % 1% 4 Lennar Corp. 99 4.7% 2.1% % 5 Smith Douglas Communities 692 3.6% 6 Taylor Morrison 628 3.2% 7.8% 7 Rocklyn Homes 529 2.7% 8 Ashton Woods Homes 479 2.5% 9 Green Brick Partners 441 2.3% 44.5% Top 9 Totals 9,483 48.9% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 5 17 Atlanta as a % of Total
Austin, TX % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 83% The increased to 5 from 22 last year: In-migration fueled by the growing local economy held traffic levels at agent s expectations this month. The rose to 75 from 33 in August 17. Jobs continue to drive new citizens to our MSA. Increased regulations. Price is having an effect on time length of sales. Incoming out-of-state buyers and move-up buyers are keeping a high level of pressure on the lower-priced homes. Entry-level buyers looking to the outlying communities. 5 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 15,291 % 1 D.R. Horton 2,374 15.8% 5.% % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2 Lennar Corp. 1,523 1.2% 3.5% % 33% 3 KB Home 1,17 6.8% 9.3% 17% 17% % 4 PulteGroup 878 5.8% 4.2% % % % Milestone Community % 5 797 5.3% Builders 6 Meritage Homes 585 3.9% 7.6% 7 Pacesetter Homes 55 3.4% 8 Gehan Homes 49 3.3% 9 Taylor Morrison 466 3.1% 5.8% Top 9 Totals 8,635 57.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 6 17 Austin as a % of Total
Baltimore, MD % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% 5% 5% 75% 67% The lowered to 38 from 63 in 17. The decreased to 38 from 5 last year: Realtors saw home prices decline sequentially for the first time this year. August is typically slow. Low inventory levels. Hard to find affordable housing. 32 nd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,916 % 33% 4 25% 25% Hovnanian Enterprises 158 4.1% 3.% % Richmond American % % % % 5 15 3.9% % Homes 6 Toll Brothers 123 3.2% 1.7% 7 PulteGroup 12 2.6%.5% 8 Brookfield Homes 4 2.4% 9 Bob Ward Companies 75 1.9% Note: Baltimore was excluded from March survey results due to lack of respondents Top 9 Totals 3,15 83.4% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 7 17 Baltimore as a % of Total 1 NVR 1,419 36.5% 8.9% 2 Lennar Corp. 682 17.5% 1.6% 3 Beazer Homes USA 437 11.3%
Boston, MA <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The rose to 5 from last year: The area continues to see pent-up demand as buyers look to purchase before further rate hikes and winter weather. The decreased to from 75 in August 17. Anxiety as summer closes and buyers look to be settled before snow falls. Frustrated spring buyers returning to the market. Buyers looking to purchase before anticipated increases in interest rates. Demand has kept up with higher home prices due to low inventory and a strong job market. Student loans remain a barrier for younger buyers. 17 single family permits: 5,194 % % % % % % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 94% % % 35% % % 35% % 25% 25% 6% % Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 8
Charleston, SC % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % The decreased to 38 from 5 last year: Traffic remained below agents expectations, partially attributable to a limited selection of entry-level inventory. The lowered to 5 from in August Prices and rates are climbing. Charleston is a desirable place to live. Move-up buyers are scarce. Entry-level buyers finding it difficult to secure affordable housing. Homes in the $175-25k price range are limited, older and often too small. 29 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,71 1 Lennar Corp. 868.3% 2.% % 2 D.R. Horton 549 12.9% 1.2% % 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3 PulteGroup 442 1.3% 2.1% % 25% 25% 4 Crescent Homes 298 7.% % % % % % 5 Beazer Homes 285 6.7% 5.1% % 6 Dan Ryan Builders 199 4.7% Ashton Woods 7 196 4.6% Homes 8 Mungo Homes 1 4.2% 9 Eastwood Homes 164 3.8% Note: This market had been excluded from our survey from Nov 17 April 18 Top 9 Totals 3,181 74.5% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 9 17. 17 Charleston as a % of Total
Charlotte, NC % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The increased to 35 from 28 last year: Demand was below agents expectations although commentary focused on traffic strength at the lower price points. The fell to 45 from 61 in August 17. Cost of living and job opportunities continues to attract buyers to the MSA. Families are seeking homes at the start of the school year. Lower inventory has depressed some buyer interest. Demand has kept up with price increases. More buyers than sellers, with homes at the lower price points moving quickly. 8 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 13,97 % 1 Lennar Corp. 1,842 17.3% 4.2% 2 D.R. Horton 1,243 11.7% 2.6% % 5% 5% % % % % 3 True Homes 871 8.2% % 3% 3% 3% % % 4 PulteGroup 773 7.3% 3.7% % 1% 5 NVR 694 6.5% 4.3% % 6 AV Homes 524 4.9% 21.% 7 M/I Homes 478 4.5% 9.4% 8 Eastwood Homes 457 4.3% 9 LGI Homes 357 3.4% 6.1% Top 9 Totals 7,239 68.1% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 1 17 Charlotte as a % of Total
Chicago, IL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The decreased to 17 from 25 in 17: Buyer fatigue surrounding a lack of inventory kept demand beneath realtors expectations. The fell to 36 from 44 last August. Traffic slowed due to a combination of lack of inventory and higher prices. Insecurity about the market and rising interest rates. Excess of housing supply at the luxury segment. Fatigued entry-level buyers tired of losing out on multiple offers. Some entry-level buyers purchasing at lower price-points. 21 st largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 8,367 Chicago as a % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17 of Total % 1 Lennar Corp. 742 11.5% 1.7% % 7% 2 D.R. Horton 9.3% 1.3% 63% % 47% 3 PulteGroup 452 7.% 2.1% 41% 44% 38% 34% % 4 M/I Homes 4 6.5% 8.3% 27% 16% 16% 5 Olthof Homes 412 6.4% % 3% 3% 6 Hovnanian Enterprises 237 3.7% 4.4% % Providence Real 7 3.1% Estate Development 8 Taylor Morrison 123 1.9% 1.5% 8 NVR 123 1.9%.8% 1 Lexington Homes 17 1.7% Top 1 Totals 3,416 53.% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 11
Cincinnati, OH % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 89% The lifted to 56 from in August 17: Despite rising prices, demand levels were higher than agents expectations for the month. The decreased to 72 from 75 in the prior year. Fear of rising interest rates. Demand not yet impacted by rising prices. Still low rates support slightly higher prices. 43 rd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,425 1 The Fischer Group 723 24.3% % 56% 56% 2 NVR 59 19.8% 3.7% % 44% 3 The Drees Co. 497 16.7% % 33% 33% 22% 22% 22% 4 M/I Homes 335 11.3% 6.6% % 11% 11% 5 Maronda Homes 84 2.8% % % 6 Arlinghaus Builders 82 2.8% 7 Hills Communities 78 2.6% 8 Cristo Homes 65 2.2% 9 Ashford Homes 62 2.1% 1 Meridian Mark 52 1.7% Top 1 Totals 2,568 86.3% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 12 17 Cincinnati as a % of Total
Columbus, OH % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The ticked up to 41 from 38 in 17: The start of school muted overall demand, although agents noted strong traffic among lower-end listings. The rose to 68 from 5 last August. Lack of inventory plus school is starting. Buyer traffic is down but most homes are still selling in less than 3 days. The more affordable the home, the higher the traffic. Affordability is impacting homebuyers looking in the under $1k range. Limited inventory driving up prices. 39 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,166 73% 1 PulteGroup 685 21.6% 3.3% % 55% 2 M/I Homes 474 15.% 9.3% % 45% 45% 45% 36% 36% 3 The Fischer Group 33 9.6% % 18% 18% 4 Westport Homes 271 8.6% % 9% 9% 9% Epcon Communities % 5 229 7.2% Franchising 6 Rockford Homes 217 6.8% 7 NVR 214 6.8% 1.3% 8 Maronda Homes 142 4.5% 9 Village Communities 114 3.6% 1 Homewood Homes 98 3.1% Note: This market had been excluded from our survey from Nov 17 April 18 Top 1 Totals 2,747 86.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 13 17 Columbus as a % of Total
Dallas, TX % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 43% 36% 36% 36% 29% 21% 71% 14% 14% 57% 43% % The remained unchanged YoY at : Demand fell below expectations as back to school and limited inventory had potential buyers on the sidelines. The decreased to 43 from 7 in the prior year. Back-to-school always seems to impact traffic. Seasonal slowdown due to school starting combined with higher interest rates. Limited new home inventory under $3k. Entry-level buyers taking longer to find a home. Few choices for entry-level buyers at the more affordable price points. Largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 34,461 HistoryMaker 7 Homes 915 2.9% 8 LGI Homes 835 2.7% 14.3% 9 Megatel Homes 794 2.6% Top 9 Totals 15,75 48.5% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 14 17 Dallas as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 4,877 15.7% 1.3% 2 Lennar Corp. 2,318 7.5% 5.3% 3 Highland Homes 1,646 5.3% 4 PulteGroup 1,32 4.2% 6.2% 5 Bloomfield Homes 1,2 4.% 6 First Texas Homes 1128 3.6%
Denver, CO % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The lowered to 31 from 35 last year. The increased to 57 from 5 in August 17: Prices ticked higher sequentially, while agents cited builders making efforts to put affordable, entry-level product onthe-ground. Seeing more inventory hit the market which has encouraged some buyers. Kids are back in school. Anticipated seasonal slowdown. Affordability has improved slightly. Tough market for entry-level buyers still. Builders trying to provide the missing entry-level product. 14 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 1,933 75% % 1 Lennar Corp. 1,285 14.6% 2.9% 57% 63% % 5% 5% 2 M.D.C. Holdings 1,181 13.4% 21.3% % 29% Century 25% 25% 3 699 8.% 14% 13% Communities 19.2% % % % 4 KB Home 617 7.% 5.7% % 5 Oakwood Homes 578 6.6% 6 Meritage Homes 443 5.% 5.7% 7 D.R. Horton 437 5.%.9% 8 Shea Homes 333 3.8% 9 Taylor Morrison 248 2.8% 3.1% Top 9 Totals 5,821 66.2% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 15 17 Denver as a % of Total
Detroit, MI <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The increased to 35 from 28 last year: Demand declined below agents expectations, with realtors noting a more sluggish luxury market (+$5k). The declined to from 72 in August Typical August as buyers are taking final summer vacations and preparing for school to start. Home prices outpacing wage increases. Overpriced inventory. Fewer bidding wars creating more affordable homes. High-end of the market ($5k+) is suffering. More informed entry-level buyers. 41 st largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 6,613 Detroit as a % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17 of Total % 1 PulteGroup 628.% 3.% % 7% 7% 2 Lombardo Homes 312 9.9% 3 Pinnacle Homes 217 6.9% % 5% % % 4 MJC Cos. 195 6.2% % 3% 3% % % % 5 Infinity Homes 166 5.3% % 1% 6 Toll Brothers 153 4.9% 2.1% % % Robertson Brothers 7 152 4.8% Corp. 8 Clearview Homes 99 3.2% 9 Hunter Pasteur Homes 56 1.8% 1 Allen Edwin Homes 46 1.5% Top 1 Totals 2,24 64.5% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 16 17.
Fort Myers, FL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The fell to 31 from in August 17: divergence seen with stronger demand at the more affordable price points. The ticked up to 57 from 55 in the prior year. Usually slower in the summer. Red tide algae is severely impacting business. Lower priced homes are gone in days vs higher-priced homes that will take one to two months to sell. Builders offering incentives for buyers to move. 35 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,798 Ft. Myers as a % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17 of Total % 1 Lennar Corp. 994 27.8% 2.3% % 75% 2 D.R. Horton 796 22.3% 1.7% 57% % 5% 5% 3 PulteGroup 424 11.9% 2.% 38% 38% 4 LGI Homes 232 6.5% 4.% % 29% Neal Communities of 14% % 13% 13% 13% 13% 5 223 6.2% Southwest Florida % 6 Wade Jurney Homes 192 5.4% 7 GL Homes 132 3.7% 8 Adams Homes 124 3.5% 9 Stock Development 71 2.% 1 Taylor Morrison 66 1.8%.8% Top 1 Totals 3,254 91.1% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 17
Houston, TX 7% % 5% % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 67% % 33% % 47% 33% 47% 53% The increased to 3 from 11 last August. The rose to 47 from 41 in the prior year: Despite a slight sequential decline, elevated home prices are forcing entry-level buyers to look in the periphery. School is starting slowing things down a bit. Stable oil prices has led to a stable real estate market. Affordability is forcing many entry-level buyers to purchase further out. First-time buyers leaning more towards new construction. Land prices have increasingly gone up. Buyers cautious due to the stigma of Hurricane Harvey and purchasing previously flooded homes. 2 nd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 39,14 3% 27% 4 Hovnanian Enterprises 1,4 4.8% 22.6% % 13% 5 Long Lake Limited 1,96 4.3% 1% % % 6 Taylor Morrison 179 4.3% 13.4% % 7 KB Home 173 4.2% 9.8% 8 PulteGroup 938 3.7% 4.5% 9 Meritage Homes 91 3.6% 11.7% 9 LGI Homes 91 3.6% 15.4% Top 1 Totals 13,454 53.3% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 18 17 Houston as a % of Total 1 D.R. Horton 2,582 1.2% 5.5% 2 Lennar Corp. 2,221 8.8% 5.1% 3 Perry Homes 1,459 5.8%
Inland Empire, CA <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations The fell to from 33 last year. The lowered to 25 from 67 in the prior year: Agents reported prices lower than the prior month for the first time this year. Buyers being priced out of the market. Affordability is impacting traffic levels. % <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 75% % 16 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 9,95 % 1 Lennar Corp. 2,76 23.8% 4.7% % 5% 5% 5% 2 D.R. Horton 1,232 14.1% 2.6% % 25% 25% 25% 3 KB Home 916 1.5% 8.4% % % % % % 4 TRI Pointe Group 818 9.4% 17.4% % 5 PulteGroup 416 4.8% 2.% 6 Brookfield Homes 388 4.5% 7 Woodside Homes 364 4.2% 8 M.D.C. Holdings 296 3.4% 5.3% 9 William Lyon Homes 259 3.% 8.% Top 9 Totals 6,765 77.7% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 19 17 Inland Empire as a % of Total
Jacksonville, FL % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The dropped to 46 from 57 last year: Traffic levels came in just under expectations with agents noting demand outpacing supply at the lower price points. The decreased to 54 from 71 in the prior year. Normal August traffic and school starting. Good economy, decent amount of inventory and still buying season before the November holiday slowdown. Newcomers to the area, including first-time buyers. Difficult for entry-level buyers to compete in the multiple offer situations on lower-priced homes. Demand for median-priced homes far outpaces supply. th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 9,824 1 D.R. Horton 1,5 24.4% 3.8% % 67% 54% 2 Lennar Corp. 9 12.6% 2.1% % 46% 36% 36% 38% 29% 33% Dream Finders % 23% 23% 3 6 1.9% 15% Homes % % 4 Mattamy Homes 492 6.6% % 5 KB Home 468 6.3% 4.3% 6 PulteGroup 366 4.9% 1.7% David Weekley 7 Homes 251 3.4% 8 M.D.C. Holdings 248 3.3% 4.5% 9 ICI Homes 1 2.7% Top 9 Totals 5,577 75.1% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 17 Jacksonville as a % of Total
Kansas City, MO % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 5% 5% % 25% % 75% % 75% 75% 25% 25% % The fell to 38 from 5 in the prior year. The rose to 75 from 63 in August 17: Home prices remain elevated in the MSA, pushing demand below agents expectations. Back to school. Late summer lull. Demand has kept up with price. Rising prices has led some to rent for longer. 33 rd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 5,9 Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 21 17 1 Summit Custom Homes 273 7.1% 2 Prieb Homes 27 7.% 3 James Engle Custom Homes 116 3.% 4 Johnnie Adams Homes 13 2.7% 5 Don Julian Builders 2.6% 6 Rodrock Homes 96 2.5% 7 Robertson Construction 88 2.3% 8 SAB Construction 78 2.% 9 Hearthside Homes of Kansas City 63 1.6% 1 Integrity Homebuilders 62 1.6% Top 1 Totals 1,249 32.4% Kansas City as a % of Total
Las Vegas, NV % % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 67% 33% % 22% 67% 11% 44% 33% 22% 56% 44% % The declined to 28 from 58 last year: Affordability constraints are increasing, though agents are seeing quick movement and multiple offers on entry-level homes. The fell to 83 from 96 in August 17. Rising prices and higher interest rates. Buyers sitting on the sidelines and affordability issues. Homes on the market are purchased quickly. Multiple offers on entry-level homes. Strong demand. Affordability has decreased with many potential buyers forced to rent. Demand has kept up with the higher prices, but some buyers have been priced out. 15 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 9,7 7 Century Communities 519 5.9% 14.3% 8 TRI Pointe Group 479 5.5% 1.2% 9 Woodside Homes 384 4.4% Top 9 Totals 7,316 83.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 22 17 Las Vegas as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1,598 18.3% 3.6% 2 D.R. Horton 1,221 13.9% 2.6% 3 KB Home 1,13 11.6% 9.3% 4 M.D.C. Holdings 87 9.9% 15.7% 5 American West Homebuilding Group 63 7.2% 6 PulteGroup 2 6.9% 2.9%
Los Angeles, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 77% 81% The fell to 12 from 36 in August 17: Demand fell below expectations with some agents noting affordability concerns forcing first-time buyers out of the market. The declined to 41 from 62 in the prior Back to school and a heat wave. Buyers facing high prices and less inventory. Affordability has forced first-time buyers out of the market with some relocating to states like Texas, Nevada and Arizona. Slight trend towards mobile or manufactured homes. Millennials are still active buyers. Sellers asking for unrealistic prices. 17 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 1,436 % 1 The Irvine Co. 855 9.9% 55% % 44% 2 Lennar Corp. 797 9.2% 1.8% 37% % 19% 24% 21% 23% 3 KB Home 672 7.7% 6.2% % 11% 7% % 4 Toll Brothers 459 5.3% 6.2% % 5 Shea Homes 4 5.1% 6 TRI Pointe Group 438 5.% 9.3% 7 California Pacific Homes 371 4.3% 8 William Lyon Homes 354 4.1% 1.9% 9 Brookfield Homes 31 3.6% Top 9 Totals 4,696 54.2% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 23 year. 17 Los Angeles as a % of Total
Miami, FL <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The dropped to from 35 last August: Realtors continue to see decreased demand from foreign buyers alongside an oversupply of high-end product. The increased to 47 from last month. Abundant inventory given emerging markets crises. Fewer foreign buyers. Hot temperatures not conducive for buying. Few selections properly priced. Oversupply as level of international buyers has decreased. Entry-level buyers need two incomes to qualify. Higher prices raising the amount needed for down payment. 11 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 6,494 % 1 Lennar Corp. 2,651 27.9% 6.% % 64% 2 The Related Group 1,35 14.2% 56% % 44% 45% 42% 3 D.R. Horton 753 7.9% 1.6% % 25% 31% 25% 27% 4 GL Homes 518 5.5% 19% 9% 13% Eastview % 5 39 4.1% Development % 6 Key International 3 4.% Century 7 343 3.6% Homebuilders Hovnanian 8 224 2.4% Enterprises 4.2% Plaza Equity 9 7 2.2% Partners Top 9 Totals 6,816 71.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 24 17 Miami - Ft. Lauderdale as a % of Total
Minneapolis, MN 1 % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The was unchanged YoY at 28: Homes under $3k continue to see multiple offers. The stayed at 5 YoY. End of summer slowdown, families on vacation before school starts. Lack of inventory and rising rates. Spring market craziness frustrated some buyers this year. Under $3k market is tight. Demand for entry-level homes is still very high. Multiple offers on the few listed entry-level homes. 22 nd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 8,6 % 65% 7% 1 Lennar Corp. 1,197 21.6% 2.7% 57% % 2 PulteGroup 462 8.3% 2.2% 39% 35% % 22% 26% 3% 22% 22% 3 D.R. Horton 427 7.7%.9% % 4% 9% 4 M/I Homes 251 4.5% 4.9% % 5 Mattamy Homes 21 3.8% 6 Capstone Homes 7 3.7% 7 Robert Thomas Homes 191 3.4% 8 R Home 144 2.6% 9 Hanson Builders 141 2.5% Top 9 Totals 3,23 58.1% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 25 17 Minneapolis as a % of Total
Nashville, TN <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The was unchanged YoY at 38: August demand held steady YoY given back to school season. The remained the same at 5. Increasingly difficult for entry-level buyers to find an affordable home. Higher rates. Kids are heading back to school. Affordability is beginning to impact traffic levels. 13 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 12,719 Nashville as a % Top 1 Builders How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17 of Total % % 1 Ole South Properties 811 9.2% % 75% 75% 2 NVR 658 7.4% % 3 Goodall Homes 54 5.7% 4.1% % 4 Regent Homes 354 4.% % 25% 25% 5 Beazer Homes 29 3.3% 5.2% % 6 PulteGroup 271 3.1% 1.3% % % % % % % % 7 Lennar Corp. 212 2.4%.5% 8 Signature Homes 3 2.3% 9 The Jones Company of Tennessee 199 2.3% 1 The Drees Co. 189 2.1% Top 1 Totals 3,691 41.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 26
New York Northern NJ <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The was down to 32 from 36 in the prior year. The fell to 44 from in August 17: Several agents commented around slowness at the higher price points. Higher-end market slower than normal. Buyers looking for reductions in price. Rising mortgage rates, lack of tax deductions and homes reaching high selling prices has muted traffic levels. Listing inventory still well below normal. First-time buyers having a hard time. Homes above $75k have extended days on market. 1 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 1,2 % 1 Toll Brothers 744 7.2% 1.1% % % 67% 2 ONEX 463 4.5% % 47% 3 Hovnanian Enterprises 384 3.7% 7.2% 39% 34% % 33% 21% 27% 28% 4 PulteGroup 343 3.3% 1.6% 19% 21% 5 Lennar Corp. 237 2.3%.5% % 6% Magnum Real Estate % 6 179 1.7% Group 7 Greenland USA 176 1.7% 8 NVR 173 1.7% 1.1% Flushing Commons 9 1 1.4% Property Owner, LLC Elad Group and 1 137 1.3% Silverstein Properties Top 1 Totals 2,976 28.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 27 17 NY - Northern NJ - Long Island as a % of Total
Orlando, FL % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The ticked up to 3 from 29 in August 17: Realtors cited builders looking to add entry-level product in an effort to meet demand. The fell to 55 from 71 in the prior Red tide algae in the rivers and canals. Back to school, little inventory and higher home prices. Hot market as rising prices drive buyers to move quickly. New developments being built at affordable prices drawing more buyers who want quicker move-ins. Sellers choosing cash buyers over FHA, USDA and VA financing. 6 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 14,951 % 65% 1 Lennar Corp. 2,629.7% 6.% % % 43% 43% 43% 2 D.R. Horton 1,49 8.3% 2.2% 38% % 3% 3% 3% The Villages of Lake 14% 19% 3 982 7.7% % 5% Sumter % 4 PulteGroup 77 6.1% 3.7% 5 Meritage Homes 649 5.1% 8.4% 6 AV Homes 636 5.% 25.5% 7 Mattamy Homes 568 4.5% 8 Taylor Morrison 536 4.2% 6.7% 9 KB Home 489 3.9% 4.5% Top 9 Totals 8,38 65.5% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 28 year. 17 Orlando as a % of Total
Philadelphia Southern NJ % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % The moved down to 5 from 55 in 17: Traffic met agents expectations despite rising prices and limited available inventory. The came in lower at 62 vs 91 last August. Buyers still in the market for properties at various price points. Limited supply of inventory. Sellers adjusted prices lower towards the end of the month, which buyers snapped up. Affordability is getting tighter but two incomes keep it moving. Affordability constraints are driving more buyers and investors to the broader area. 27 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 7,136 % 62% 1 NVR 1,223 23.7% 7.7% % 46% 38% 38% 38% 2 Toll Brothers 682 13.2% 9.2% % 31% 31% 15% 3 Lennar Corp. 546 1.6% 1.2% % % % % 4 D.R. Horton 171 3.3%.4% % 5 PulteGroup 147 2.9%.7% 6 W.B. Homes 1.9% 7 T.H. Properties 98 1.9% 8 Hovnanian Enterprises 89 1.7% 1.7% 9 V2 Properties 1.6% Top 9 Totals 3,136.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 29 17 Philadelphia as a % of Total
Phoenix, AZ % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The fell to 37 from 5 last year: Agents saw an increased number of first-time buyers alongside continued in-migration esp. from California. The ticked down to from 61 in August 17. Many buyers relocating from California. Summer is slowest for the Arizona market. New industries entering the MSA and attracting prospective buyers. More first-time home buyers. Entry-level buyers having a hard time saving for a down payment with rents at an all-time high. 4 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits:,455 % 63% 1 Lennar Corp. 2, 11.5% 4.6% % 42% 46% 38% 38% 42% 2 D. R. Horton 1,937 11.2% % 25% 29% 29% 21% 21% 3 Meritage Homes 1,295 7.5% 16.8% % 8% 4 Taylor Morrison 1,183 6.8% 14.7% % 5 PulteGroup 1,138 6.6% 5.4% 6 Fulton Homes 794 4.6% 7 Shea Homes 788 4.5% 8 KB Home 59 3.4% 5.4% Richmond 9 569 3.3% American Homes Top 9 Totals 1,294 59.4% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 3 17 Phoenix as a % of Total
Portland, OR % % % % % % 33% <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 5% 17% 83% 5% 33% 17% 17% 33% 67% % % The remained unchanged YoY at 25. The decreased slightly to 58 from : Prices remain elevated with 83% of agents reporting an increase in the length of time needed to sell a home. Forest fires leading to hot, hazy and smoky weather. Buyers taking more time to purchase. Low inventory, especially at the entry-level. Prices and interest rates rising. Lack of inventory at affordable price points. Some buyers being pushed out of the market. 28 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 6,814 Portland as a % 17 of Total 1 D.R. Horton 842 16.7% 1.8% 2 William Lyon Homes 747 14.8% 23.1% 3 Lennar Corp. 382 7.6%.9% 4 New Tradition Homes 169 3.3% 5 Pahlisch Homes 121 2.4% 6 Pacific Lifestyle Homes 119 2.4% 7 Stone Bridge Homes NW 116 2.3% 8 Urban NW Homes 98 1.9% 9 Everett Custom Homes 9 1.8% 1 Manor Homes 86 1.7% 1 Renaissance Custom Homes 86 1.7% Top 11 Totals 2,856 56.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 31
Raleigh, NC <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month The increased to from 8 in 17: Expanding employment opportunities continue to attract buyers to the MSA, but poor weather and limited inventory muted overall traffic levels. The declined to 45 from 83 last year. More rain than usual and back to school/vacation lag. Buyers moving to the MSA note the quality of life and lower taxes. Companies moving into the area, driving demand. Fewer affordable homes for first-time buyers. Limited number of entry-level homes on the market. 18 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 1,785 Raleigh as a % How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... 17 of Total % 1 Lennar Corp. 982 12.2% 2.2% % % 2 Dan Ryan Builders 524 6.5% 5% 56% % 5% 3 PulteGroup 482 6.% 2.3% % 3% 3% % 22% 22% % % % 4 M/I Homes 399 5.% 7.8% % Royal Oaks Building % 5 331 4.1% Group 6 D.R. Horton 33 4.1%.7% 7 Terramor Homes 277 3.4% 8 Taylor Morrison 2 2.7% 2.7% 8 Mungo Homes 2 2.7% Top 9 Totals 3,765 46.7% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 32
Sacramento, CA % % % % % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... % 67% 67% 33% 33% 83% % 17% % % % % The decreased to 42 from 67 in the prior August: Wildfires and hot weather kept traffic below expectations, though agents noted demand returning towards the end of the month. The fell to 17 from 75 last year. Slow down in July given the smoke and hot weather, but buyers returning at the end of August. San Francisco Bay area buyers moving here for retirement. Fewer international buyers in the market. Buyers want move-in ready with upgrades but are not prepared to pay the price for it. Entry-level having to purchase in dicier neighborhoods. 23 rd largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 6,854 % 5 Hovnanian Enterprises 293 5.3% 5.5% 6 Elliott Homes 288 5.2% 7 JMC Homes 287 5.2% 8 D.R. Horton 267 4.8%.6% 9 Beazer Homes 243 4.4% 4.3% Top 9 Totals 3,758 67.9% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 33 17 Sacramento as a % of Total 1 Lennar Corp. 1,212 21.9% 2.8% 2 Taylor Morrison 9 7.4% 5.1% 3 KB Home 391 7.1% 3.6% 4 Woodside Homes 368 6.6%
San Antonio, TX 1 % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The rose to 71 from 25 in August 17: The MSA is seeing an influx of first-time buyers as local economic strength boosted traffic above agents expectations. The dropped to 64 from 83 last year. Inbound relocations due to booming local economy. Job opportunities, low taxes. Buyers mostly first-time or upgrading. Entry-level buyer demand still strong with no trouble qualifying for loans. Enormous demand for homes $15-k, but builders having trouble delivering at this price range. 9 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 7,428 83% 1 D.R. Horton 1,833 17.7% 3.9% % 71% 57% 2 KB Home 1,115 1.7% 1.2% % 43% 43% 3 PulteGroup 821 7.9% 3.9% % 29% 4 Lennar Corp. 742 7.1% 1.7% 14% 14% 14% 17% 14% % 5 Meritage Homes 495 4.8% 6.4% % % 6 LGI Homes 4 4.6% 8.2% 7 Chesmar Homes 337 3.2% 8 M/I Homes 325 3.1% 6.4% 9 Armadillo Homes 3 3.1% 1 Legend Homes 316 3.% Top 1 Totals 6,784 65.2% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 34 17 San Antonio as a % of Total
San Diego, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The rose to 21 from 15 last year: Buyers moved to the sidelines as rising rates and prices are beginning to impact consumer confidence. The decreased to 57 from 69 in August 17. New construction pulling potential buyers away from the resale market. Higher rates and high asking prices. Vacations and school starting alongside changing buyer confidence. Entry-level buyers scouring the condo market. Buyers sitting on the sidelines. 49 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,74 % 71% 67% 1 Lennar Corp. 7 24.% 1.4% 57% 57% % 2 TRI Pointe Group 351 13.9% 7.5% % 29% 29% 3 Shea Homes 2 1.3% 14% 14% 14% 14% 17% 17% % 4 KB Home 225 8.9% 2.1% % 5 Toll Brothers 146 5.8% 2.% 6 Taylor Morrison 121 4.8% 1.5% 7 Baldwin & Sons 98 3.9% Cornerstone 8 88 3.5% Communities 9 Meritage Homes 62 2.5%.8% Top 9 Totals 1,958 77.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 35 17 San Diego as a % of Total
San Francisco, CA % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The lowered to 25 from 56 in the prior year: Affordability constraints are causing some first-time buyers to purchase condos rather than single-family homes. The fell to 5 from 77 last year. Buyer burnout from rising prices. Low inventory and buyers cannot afford to purchase. Vacation and back to school activities. Many entry-level buyers are opting to purchase more affordable condos instead of single-family homes. Diminishing demand, though limited inventory is keeping prices stable. 25 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 4,756 73% 75% 1 KB Home 53 1.1% 4.9% % 57% 2 Lennar Corp. 357 6.8%.8% % % 33% 3 D.R. Horton 354 6.7%.8% % 21% 21% 27% % 19% 4 Toll Brothers 343 6.5% 4.6% % 7% 6% 5 TRI Pointe Group 315 6.% 6.7% % 6 Shea Homes 312 5.9% 7 William Lyon Homes 36 5.8% 9.4% A.D. Seeno 8 Construction Co. 287 5.5% 9 PulteGroup 2 4.9% 1.2% 1 Trumark Cos. 233 4.4% Top 1 Totals 3,297 62.6% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 36 17 San Francisco as a % of Total
Sarasota, FL % <5 - Below Expectations; =5 - Meets Expectations; >5 - Exceeds Expectations <5 - Lower than Prior Month; =5 - Flat vs Prior Month; >5 - Higher than Prior Month How Do the Recent 3 Days Compare to the Prior 3 Days... The Buyer Traffic index decreased to 23 from 5 last year: Several agents commented on the presence of red tide algae discouraging buyers. The lowered to 58 from 75 in August Red tide algae affecting the area and daily thunderstorms. Summer in Florida not that many buyers. Red tide issues along the southwest coast. Decreased affordability though most of the market is retirees seeking to leave colder climates. Higher and still rising prices are causing buyers to look at more condos rather than single-family homes. 26 th largest market in the country 17 single family permits: 6,66 1 Lennar Corp. 1,225 23.4% 2.8% % 67% 69% 69% 62% Neal Communities of % 2 861 16.4% Southwest Florida % 25% 23% 23% 23% 3 D.R. Horton 767 14.6% 1.6% % 8% 8% 8% 4 PulteGroup 699 13.3% 3.3% % 5 Taylor Morrison 468 8.9% 5.8% 6 Mattamy Homes 2 4.6% 7 The Kolter Group 114 2.2% 8 Maronda Homes 9 1.7% 9 Medallion Homes 89 1.7% Top 9 Totals 4,553 86.8% Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau, Builder Magazine, Metrostudy, Company Data Slide 37 17. 17 Sarasota - North Port as a % of Total