Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators June 213 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone 239-59-7319 Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 1: SW Florida International Traffic Trend... 7 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend... 8 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend... 8 Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues... 1 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues... 1 Single-Family Building Permits... 11 Chart 7: Lee County... 11 Chart 8: Collier County... 12 Chart 9: Charlotte County... 12 Taxable Sales... 13 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 14 Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier... 14 Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier... 15 Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier... 15 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 16 Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 17 Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 17 Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 18 Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 18 Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 19 Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 19 Chart 2: Lee County... 2 Chart 21: Collier County... 2 Chart 22: Charlotte County... 21 Consumer Confidence Index... 21 Consumer Price Index... 22 Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 23 Population... 24 Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 21... 25 Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to 21... 25 Chart 28: Projections by County... 26 2
Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7319 Email: gjackson@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Phone: 239-59-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Introduction: Regional and National Background The Southwest Florida economy continues its recovery. March 213 taxable sales for the region were eight percent higher than March 212. Passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International Airport in April 213 was up three percent from April 212. Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties issued a total of 365 single-family home permits in May, 19 percent more than May 212. May 213 sales of Lee, Collier, and Charlotte existing single-family homes increased by eight percent over May 212, while median single-family home prices were up by 17 to 27 percent over the same period. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index for May 213 reflects these changes, rising to 81, an increase of three points from the May 212 figure, and the highest since August 27. National housing prices increased 12.1 percent for the 2-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home price index in the 12 months ending in April 213. The region s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate continued to show improvement over the prior year, declining from 9.3 percent in May 212 to 7.4 percent in April 213. County details can be found beginning on page 16. For the U.S., the real GDP growth was revised downward to 1.8 percent for the first quarter of 213 compared to only.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 212. Real personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter were more positive, growing at 2.6 percent compared to 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The national unemployment rate edged up to 7.6 percent in May 213 from 7.5 percent in April 213. This constituted a drop of.6 percentage points from May 212. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) is 4.4 million or 39.3 percent of all unemployed. The May Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,, an increase over April s 149,. The May employment increases included 57, in professional and business services, 43, in leisure and hospitality, 28, in retail trade, 26, in education and health services, 13, in other services, 8, in wholesale trade, 7, in construction, and 4, in financial activities. In contrast, manufacturing declined by 8,, transportation and warehousing declined by 4,, and government employment declined by 3,. The national consumer price index increased by 1.4 percent from May 212 to May 213, compared with 1.1 percent increase from April 212 to April 213. Medical care services increased 2.9 percent but energy prices declined by 1. percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. 3
The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on June 19 th, and is summarized below: Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace; Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated; Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth; Inflation has been running below the Committee s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable; The Committee sees the downside risks to the economic outlook and the labor market as having diminished since the fall, and anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective; To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $4 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month; The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities; Along with rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative; The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability; The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee decided to keep the target range of the federal funds rate at to ¼ percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 2-1/2 percent, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. The Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments; When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. There is uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce or taper its security purchases, increasing interest rates. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 3 th 31 st, 213. The FOMC released its latest forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on June 19, 213, which is shown on the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and 4
the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The June forecast was similar to the March forecast with a slightly lower range of forecast GDP growth for 213 and 214. The GDP chart shows that recovery started in 29, but it is expected to be several years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 213, the overall projected range of growth is 2. to 2.6 percent with a central tendency range of 2.3 to 2.6 percent. For 214, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.6 percent with a central tendency range of 3. to 3.5 percent growth. For 215, the overall projected range is 2.3 to 3.8 percent with a central tendency range of 2.9 to 3.6 percent growth. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 2. to 3. percent growth with a central tendency of 2.3 to 2.5 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 19, 213. As shown in the chart on the next page, the 212 national unemployment rate was high at 7.8 percent but an improvement over the 211 rate of 8.7 percent. For 213, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 6.9 to 7.5 percent with a central tendency range of 7.2 to 7.3 percent. For 214, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 6.2 to 6.9 percent with a central tendency range of 6.5 to 6.8 percent. For 215, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5.7 to 6.4 percent with a central tendency range of 5.8 to 6.2 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5. to 6. percent with a central tendency of 5.2 to 6. percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 5
Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 19, 213. Issues related to the Federal budget, state budgets, European sovereign debt issues, health care costs, income and estate tax uncertainties, and oil prices continue to create some headwinds. RERI thanks all of the individuals and organizations that have helped to bring together the regional information for this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 6
Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Total activity for the three Southwest Florida airports amounted to 961,76 passengers in April 213. This represented a 25-percent decrease from March 213 but a three-percent increase over April 212. Passenger activity increased by 128,218 to 4,83,51 in the four months ended April 3, 213, a threepercent increase over the same period in 212. Chart 1 shows SW Florida International airport passenger activity of 815,978 in April 213, three-percent above the figure for April 212. Sarasota Bradenton passenger activity amounted to 117,579 in April 213, which was 13 percent below April 212, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity was 28,23 in April 213, three times higher than April 212. 12 Chart 1: SW Florida International Traffic Trend RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend 11 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 21 211 212 213 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7
225 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend SRQ (Sarasota Bradenton Int'l) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 2 175 15 125 1 75 5 21 211 212 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend PGD (Punta Gorda Airport) Passenger Arrivals plus Departures Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 211 213 21 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 8
Tourism Tax Revenues Tourism tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4, 5, and 6, based on month of occupancy. Total April 213 tourism tax revenues for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties were down by one percent from April 212, and, following the seasonal pattern, down by 62 percent from March 213. Year-to-date regional results show a six-percent increase over the four months through April 212, amounting to $1,49,227. Lee County tourism tax revenues for April 213 declined to $2,363,725, down nearly $4, from April 212. Collier County s April 213 tourism tax revenues were $1,462,849, a two-percent increase over April 212. Charlotte County tourism tax revenues for April 213 amounted to $171,511, a decrease of 14 percent from April 212. Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues 7, Lee County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 21-213 6, Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 21 211 212 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9
Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues 3,5 Collier County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 21-213 3, Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 21 211 212 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues 7 Charlotte County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 21-213 6 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 5 4 3 2 1 21 211 212 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 1
Single-Family Building Permits Total single-family building permits for the three coastal counties showed an increase of 19 percent in May 213 over May 212. Single-family permits issued in the region amounted to 365 in May 213, compared to 38 in May 212 and 366 in March 213. A total of 19 single-family building permits were issued in Lee County in May 213, an increase of 18 percent from May 212, as shown in Chart 7 (which employs a logarithmic scale on its y-axis to more clearly portray long-term trends). Collier County issued 131 permits in May 213, up from 125 in May 212, as shown in Chart 8. Charlotte County recorded 44 permits in May 213, a 1 percent increase over May 212. The 12-month moving averages of Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties show moderate upward movement. Hendry County issued one permit in May 213, bringing its total to six in the five months ended May 31, compared to seven permits issued in the first five months of 212. Chart 7: Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 23-212 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) 1 1 Permits Trend 1 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. 11
Chart 8: Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 23-212 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 3 25 Permits Issued 2 15 1 Permits Trend 5 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. Chart 9: Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 23-212 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 2 Permits Issued 15 1 Permits Trend 5 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. 12
Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants collections, and not the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. The five reporting counties saw an eight-percent increase in total taxable sales in March 213 over March 212, amounting to an added $156 million. Taxable sales for the region rose by 16 percent from the prior month of February 213. Taxable sales for the coastal counties are shown in Chart 1. Charlotte County s taxable sales of $22.7 million in March 213 were five-percent higher than March 212. Lee County taxable sales rose to $1,193.2 million in March 213, a nine-percent increase over March 212. Collier County reported taxable sales of $735.2 million in March 213, seven-percent higher than March 212. Taxable sales for Hendry and Glades Counties are shown in Chart 11. Hendry County s taxable sales of $28.2 million in March 213 were one-percent below the March 212 figure. Glades County reported March 213 taxable sales of $2.7 million, a 17-percent increase from March 212. Charts 12, 13, and 14 depict percentage changes in taxable sales from the same month a year earlier. Lee and Collier Counties continue to show positive year-over-year comparisons for every month in the twoyear measurement period. Charlotte County has recorded positive changes for each of the past 18 months, and 21 of the past 24. 1,4 1,2 Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Coastal County Taxable Sales 23 to Present 23-212 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data 1,97 1,193 Taxable Sales - $ Millions 1, 8 6 4 2 23 24 23-212 Monthly Avg Charlotte 25 26 27 Lee 853 Collier 518 28 29 21 211 166 212 687 735 21 221 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Most recent 13 months Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 13
4 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Inland County Taxable Sales 23 to Present 23-212 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data 35 Taxable Sales - $ Millions 3 25 2 15 1 Hendry 23-212 Monthly Avg 24.1 28.4 28.2 Most recent 13 months 5 Glades 2.1 2.3 2.7 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 12% Lee County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 14
Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 16% Collier County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 1% Charlotte County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 15
Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19 show total persons employed unemployed, and the unemployment rate for each county in the region from January 25 to May 213, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in May 213 showed continued improvement over the corresponding month of the prior year in all five reporting counties. Total employment in the five reporting counties increased by 1,547 persons over May 212, while the number of unemployed dropped by 9,932. The region s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell from 9.3 percent to 7.4 percent. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.3 percent in May 213, a slight increase from the April 213 figure of 7.2 percent, and down from 9.2 percent in May 212. Employment in Lee grew by 6,967 persons from May 212 to May 213, while the number of unemployed decreased by 5,521. Collier County s unemployment rate was 7. percent in May 213, up.2 from April 213, but well below the 8.8 percent rate of May 212. Collier County saw an increase of 3,285 persons employed in May 213 compared to May 212. Charlotte County had an unemployment rate of 7.4 percent in May 213, up from 7.2 percent in April 213, but down from 9.2 percent in May 212. Hendry s unemployment rate rose to 12.7 percent in May, an increase of.6 percentage points from the April 213 figure, but a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from May 212. The May 213 unemployment rate in Glades County increased to 8.1 percent from 7.6 percent in April, decreasing 1.5 percentage points from May 212. The State of Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined to 7.1 percent in May 213, the lowest rate since September 28. This was a slight decrease from the April 213 figure of 7.2 percent; and was 1.7 percentage points lower than May 212. The seasonally-adjusted national unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in May 213, up from 7.5 percent in April 213, but below the 8.2 percent of May 212. 16
Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 17
Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 18
Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Charts 2 through 22 show the existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. The line represents median price with the scale on the right side and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. Sales of single-family homes in the coastal counties rose to a total of 2,121 units in May 213, up eight percent from May 212, and up five percent from April 213. Median prices increased by 17 to 27 percent from the previous May. Sales of 1,255 units were reported in Lee County for May 213 at a median price of $176,333. Unit sales were up nine percent over May 212, while the median price rose 25 percent over the same time period. Sales were seven percent above the previous month s figure of 1,172. Collier County had 466 single-family home sales in May 213, a seven-percent decrease from May 212, and a four-percent decrease from the April 213 figure of 486. The median price increased to $32, in May 213, compared to $252, in May 212, a 27-percent increase. Charlotte County recorded 4 single-family home sales in May 213, up 27 percent over May 212, and 1-percent higher than the prior month. The median price of $145, in May 213 was 17 percent higher than that of May 212. 19
Chart 2: Lee County 14 Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $2 Number of Homes Sold 12 1 8 6 4 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Median Sale Price - Thousands Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Source: REALTOR Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 21: Collier County Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS 6 $35 5 $3 Number of Homes Sold 4 3 2 1 Collier Homes Sold * Collier Median Sale Price $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 Median Sale Price - Thousands * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of REALTORS (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 2
Chart 22: Charlotte County 45 4 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $16 $14 Number of Homes Sold 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 May 213 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Median Sale Price - Thousands Source: Florida REALTORS Punta Gorda, Florida MSA ; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Confidence Index Chart 23 shows monthly data for the last three years and 12-month moving average trend lines for both the Florida Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The national ICS rose to 84.5 in May 213, an 8.1-point increase from April 213, and a 5.2 point increase from May 212. The May 31 st Surveys of Consumers notes, A rising stock market and higher home prices prompted consumers to report their most improved financial situation in more than five years. The May gain was largest among upper-income households, although gains were recorded across all income groups...leading households to adopt the most improved outlook for the national economy since 27. Importantly, the most common news item that consumers mentioned hearing was about rising employment. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index for May 213 rose to 81, an increase of 2 points from the April figure, and 3 points higher than May 212. Confidence in the Florida economy is at a post-recession high, said Chris McCarty, the Survey Director. The last time consumer sentiment was this high was August of 27 when it was 82, shortly before the Great Recession began. This month we are on an upward trend with three straight months of increases. Last month s increase was largely due to increased consumer sentiment among respondents under age 6 who were optimistic about their personal finances and U.S. economic conditions. While younger respondents maintained that level of optimism in May, older respondents were substantially more optimistic about long term U.S. economic conditions over the next five years as that component increased 15 points for those over age 6. 21
Chart 23: Consumer Confidence Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Confidence Data Most Recent 3 Years and Trend 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 FL CCI US ICS FL CCI Trend US ICS Trend 5 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Year-to-year changes in the consumer price indices (CPI) for the nation, the U.S. Southern Region, and the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area are shown in Chart 24 through April 213. As reported last month, inflation rates for all three indices at April 213 were lower than the corresponding figures for April 212. The National CPI grew by 1.4 percent from May 212 to May 213, compared to 1.1 percent from April 212 to April 213. The Southern Region CPI growth rate dropped to.9 percent in April 213, compared to 2.5 percent in the year ended April 212. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale increase was.9 percent in April 213. 22
Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National -4% -6% Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Source: BLS The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending April 213 are shown in Chart 25. The largest increases were seen in education (2.5 percent), other (2.2 percent), recreation (2.1 percent), and medical care (2.1 percent). Apparel costs declined by 4.8 percent, and transportation by 1.1 percent. 23
Chart 25: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending April 213 Education and communication Other goods and services * Recreation Medical care Housing Apparel Food and beverages Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: BLS 12 Month Percentage Change Population As previously reported, the following charts reflect the most recent county population forecasts released by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Population growth from 199 to 21 is shown in Charts 26 and 27. Collier County grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 3.8 percent from 199 to 21. Lee County s population grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 1.8 and 2.7 percent per year. Chart 28 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. These projections have been lowered slightly from those previously reported. However, the overall rate of regional growth still averages 1.6 percent per year for this period, resulting in a 3-year increase of 59 percent for the five-county region from 21 to 24. 24
7 Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 6 619 Population - Thousands 5 4 3 2 335 152 Lee Collier 322 16 1 111 Charlotte 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21 45 Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry 39 Population - Thousands 3 25 2 15 26 Glades 13 1 8 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21 25
Populaton (Thousands) 2, 1,8 Chart 28: Projections by County Population Projections 215-24 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 215 22 225 23 235 24 Glades 13,286 14,135 14,953 15,723 16,442 17,127 Hendry 38,488 39,615 4,665 41,62 42,484 43,279 Charlotte 164,784 173,129 181,28 188,32 194,94 21,123 Collier 341,959 375,585 48,254 439,367 468,77 497,11 Lee 674,992 763,232 847,963 928,484 1,4,53 1,77,279 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, updated March 212. 26