AZ Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation Coverage Implications for Arizona Residents This fact sheet examines how a reconciliation bill similar to the one vetoed in January 2016 will affect health care coverage in Arizona. The estimates supplement two Health Policy Center reports: Implications of Partial Appeal of the ACA through Reconciliation (Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, and John Holahan) and Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation: Coverage Implications for Parents and Children (Buettgens, Genevieve M. Kenney, and Clare Pan). Information on data and methods is available in those reports. FIGURE 1 Health Insurance Coverage for Arizona Residents under Age 65, 2019 ACA 2016 reconciliation bill 4,551 3,008 1,714 1,459 1,384 750 349 40 Uninsured Medicaid/CHIP Private nongroup Employer coverage TABLE 1 Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage among Arizona Residents under Age 65, with the Affordable Care Act and under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 ACA Reconciliation Bill Difference (thousands of people) Insured 5,261 88% 4,551 76% -709 Employer 3,008 50% 2,938 49% -70 Nongroup (eligible for tax credit) 126 2% 0 0% -126 Nongroup (other) 224 4% 40 1% -184 Medicaid/Children s Health Insurance Program 1,714 29% 1,384 23% -330 Other (including Medicare) 190 3% 190 3% 0 Uninsured 750 12% 1,459 24% 709 Total 6,010 100% 6,010 100% 0 2100 M Street NW Washington DC 20037 urban.org
TABLE 2 Characteristics of Arizona Residents Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 Uninsurance rate under ACA Uninsurance rate under reconciliation bill Age (years) < 18 122 17% 8% 14% 18 24 120 17% 16% 34% 25 34 137 19% 18% 32% 35 44 109 15% 16% 28% 45 54 120 17% 13% 27% 55 64 104 15% 10% 22% Family income level < 100% FPL 210 29% 11% 25% 100 150% FPL 112 16% 11% 29% 150 200% FPL 79 11% 15% 29% 200 300% FPL 105 15% 12% 24% 300 400% FPL 61 9% 7% 16% > 400% FPL 146 21% 16% 24% Family employment status At least one full-time worker 463 65% 11% 21% Part-time only 105 15% 18% 36% No worker 144 20% 15% 30% White, non-hispanic 361 51% 8% 20% Black, non-hispanic 29 4% 11% 20% Hispanic 221 31% 20% 30% Asian/Pacific Islander 30 4% 10% 24% American Indian/Alaska Native 59 8% 14% 29% Other, non-hispanic 12 2% 6% 17% Adult education attainment Less than high school 88 15% 33% 50% High school 228 39% 17% 34% Some college 158 27% 11% 24% College 73 13% 7% 18% Graduate school 33 6% 4% 14% Total 580 100% 14% 29% Notes: ACA = Affordable Care Act; FPL = federal poverty level. Columns may not sum to totals because of rounding. 2
FIGURE 2 Uninsured Children in Arizona, 2019 of children Uninsured under the ACA Difference from ACA scenario 130 280 203 158 158 158 158 ACA 2016 reconciliation bill 2016 reconciliation bill and no MOE 2016 reconciliation bill and no separate CHIP program Notes: ACA = Affordable Care Act; CHIP = Children s Health Insurance Program; MOE = maintenance of eligibility. Children are ages 18 and younger, following Medicaid/CHIP guidelines. Medicaid/CHIP eligibility under the no MOE scenario is at federal minima for all states under the 2016 reconciliation bill: 138 percent of the federal poverty level for children younger than 6 and 100 percent of the federal poverty level for children ages 6 to 18. If the MOE provision is eliminated, states would decide whether to reduce eligibility levels for children. FIGURE 3 Uninsured Parents in Arizona, 2019 Uninsured under the ACA Difference from ACA scenario 151 177 177 ACA 2016 reconciliation bill Note: ACA = Affordable Care Act. 3
TABLE 3 Characteristics of Arizona Children Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 Losses under Reconciliation state of children total Additional Coverage at Risk under No MOE state of children total Age 0 4 28 21% 27 18% 5 18 104 79% 123 79% Family income < 100% FPL 15 11% <1 0% 100 150% FPL 13 10% 91 61% 150 200% FPL 14 11% 59 39% 200 300% FPL 36 27% <1 0% 300 400% FPL 17 13% <1 0% > 400% FPL 36 28% <1 0% White, non-hispanic 62 47% 40 26% Black, non-hispanic 4 3% 9 6% Hispanic 42 32% 85 57% Asian/Pacific Islander 6 4% 2 1% American Indian/Alaska Native 13 10% 12 8% Other, non-hispanic 5 4% 3 2% Family employment status At least one full-time worker 111 84% 112 75% Part-time only 7 5% 14 9% No worker 7 5% 14 10% No parent at home 7 6% 9 6% Notes: CHIP = Children s Health Insurance Program; FPL = federal poverty level; MOE = maintenance of eligibility. Columns may not sum to totals because of rounding. Children are ages 18 and younger, following Medicaid/CHIP guidelines. Medicaid/CHIP eligibility under the No MOE scenario is at federal minima for all states under the 2016 reconciliation bill: 138 percent of FPL for children younger than 6 and 100 percent of FPL for children ages 6 to 18. If the MOE provision is eliminated, states would decide whether to reduce eligibility levels for children. 4
TABLE 4 Characteristics of Arizona Parents Losing Coverage under the 2016 Reconciliation Bill, 2019 of parents Age 19 24 9 6% 25 34 40 26% 35 44 58 39% 45 54 37 25% 55 64 7 4% Family income < 100% FPL 33 22% 100 150% FPL 42 28% 150 200% FPL 16 11% 200 300% FPL 18 12% 300 400% FPL 11 7% > 400% FPL 31 20% White, non-hispanic 72 47% Black, non-hispanic 4 3% Hispanic 56 37% Asian/Pacific Islander 8 5% American Indian/Alaska Natives 9 6% Other, non-hispanic 2 2% Employment status At least one full-time worker 116 77% Part-time only 16 11% No worker 19 13% Source: Urban Institute analysis using HIPSM 2016. Note: FPL = federal poverty level. Acknowledgments This fact sheet was prepared by Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan, Genevieve M. Kenney, and Clare Pan. These estimates were funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of Urban experts. Further information on the Urban Institute s funding principles is available at http://www.urban.org/support. Copyright January 2017. Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. 5