Delta Associates Spring Seminar The U.S. and Washington Area Economies: Current Performance and Outlook: 24-29 Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University May 5, 25 The U.S. Economy s Current Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis
35 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 3 25 2 5 5 982-Q3 99-Q 2-Q4 29-Q2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 23456789222223 *in 992 or 29 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Percent of GDP Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 22 Quarters Post-Recession 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.%.% 99-Q 5.2% 2-Q4 4.7% 29-Q2 4.3% 3.5% 4.% 2.7% 3.4% 3.% 982-Q3.% 3 5 7 9 3 5 7 9 2 23 Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 5 5-5 - -5-2 -25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 - -2 Jan U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
65 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices 6 55 5 45 4 Mfg N-Mfg 35 3 Source: Institute for Supply Management U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Ranked by Size in 25 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = 3,28 54 72 662 326 49 88 5 286 73 7 59-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Ranked by Size in 24 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -2 (s) Total = 26 - - -2 - -5 5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2 6 8 9 3 26 38 4 (s) 5 Initial Claims for Unemployment 2-Present 4-Week Moving Average 45 4 35 3 25 Apr 8 295 Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9 8 7 6 5 4 Mar = 5.5 IHS FCST 5 5.5 6 5.2 7 5.2 8 5.3 9 5.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics April 25 5 4 3 2 % Consumer Prices 2-29 Forecast > > > - 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 2 2 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics April 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
Interest Rates 2-29 8 Forecast > > > 7 6 5 4 3-Yr -Yr Treas Fed 3 2-2 23 25 27 29 2 23 25 27 29 Source: IHS Economics April 25 $/barrel 2 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Source: IHS Economics April 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
Consumer Confidence 4 2 8 6 4 2 Current Situation Expectations Mar- Mar- Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
Household Formation Slowed in 24: Contributing Causes Poor wage growth/weak growth in higher value added jobs Slower immigration Lower marriage rates Limited access to credit Degraded mobility Student loan burdens Uncertainty in global markets reduced international transfers of family money in support of housing purchases Changing generational values and preferences Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts (millions of Units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales 25 2.73 7.76 2.62 4.278 22.783 4.66 23.93 5.74 24. 4.92 25.2 5.252 26.38 5.63 27.463 5.436 28.59 5.399 29.565 5.532 Source: IHS Economics, US Executive Summary, April 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
% 6 5 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > 4 3 2 3.8 3.5 3. 3. 2.6 2.2.9 2.3 2.4 2.5.8 3.2 3. 2.9 2.5 2.5 - -2 -.3 -.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 25 % 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 27 25 Forecast - 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Economic Performance % 2 5 5-5 - -5-2 -25 Forecast > > > > GDP Non-Res: Structures Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Residential Fixed State & Local Federal Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics April 25 The Washington Economy: Impacts of the Recession and the Post-Recession Recovery and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 2 Feb 2-Mar 25-49 -34-24 -23 - -2-8 - -7-5 (s) Total -8 Total 224-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 6 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4 3 3 8 28 43 5 62 The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 28-March 25 (in 24 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 8,3 - $29,44,64, + 223,7 + $22,75,, 2 + 42,4 - $6,868,964, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $6,2 per job contribution to GRP 2 $99,3 per job contribution to GRP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2-24 Federal Procurement Outlays declined $3.3 billion or 6.% between FY 2 and FY 23. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2, losing 2,8 jobs or 5.6%. Federal payroll declined by $2.4 billion or 5.7% between FY 2 and FY 24 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. 25 2 5 5-5 - -5-2 Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 29 2 2 22 23 24 Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar 28 25 22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-5 Total: 36.2 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
25 2 5 5-5 - -5-2 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 3 29 2 2 22 23 24 Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar 28 25 22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-5 Total: 79.2 (s of 23 $s) 72. Average Wages in the Washington Metro Area, 2-23 7. 68. 66. 64. 63. 63. 63.9 65.5 66.2 67. 68.2 67.8 69.5 7.6 69.8 69.3 68.3 62. 6. 58. 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
(s of 23 $s) 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 Average Wage, Washington Metro Area 99 99 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 Region D.C. Virginia Maryland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 23* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,99 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 2,5 - $,675 Fairfax County,79 - $249 Loudoun County 6,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,49 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS -Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 23 dollars GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
(s) 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% % % % 5 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 23 24 Washington +.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.%.5%.%.5%.% 5 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 24 Mar 25 Washington +.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 22-25 Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year 8 2 2 22 23 24 28 25 22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Washington MSA -2-2 - 2 (s) Total = 5,7 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 6 3 3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Washington MSA - 2 (s) Total = 7,5 2 4 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7 (s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4 28 25 22 Annual Job Change District of Columbia, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 District of Columbia - 2 (s) Total,6 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 District of Columbia - (s) Total 7 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
(s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4 28 25 22 Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Suburban Maryland - - (s) Total 9,2 2 3 4 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Suburban Maryland (s) Total, 2 2 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 28 25 22 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 22-25 Annual Month over Year 2 2 22 23 24 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 24 Mar 25 Northern Virginia -2 - - 2 (s) Total 6,2 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 6 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 25 Mar 25 Northern Virginia - - (s) Total 6,3 3 (2.) (.) -. 2. 3. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
2 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 28-25 8 6 4 2 7.3 DC 5.5 U.S. 4.6 SMD 4.7 MSA 4. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) 7. % 6. 5. 4. 3. 2... 5 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Mar 25 US 5.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area 4 2 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 25, MSA Mar = +6.8% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
5, Active Listings Washington MSA All Housing Types, each month by year 4, 3, 2,, 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4, Active Listings District of Columbia All Housing Types 3,5 3, 2,5 2,,5, 5 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
2, Active Listings Suburban Maryland All Housing Types, each month by year 7,5 5, 2,5, 7,5 5, 2,5 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25, Active Listings Northern Virginia All Housing Types, each month by year 2, 5,, 5, 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
25 2 Total Listings Per Sale March Each Year PG 5 5 - LDN PW ARL DC MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2, Total Sales by Sub-State Area Washington MSA All Property Types 7K, 8, 6, 4, 2, 7K West VA No. VA Sub. MD D.C. Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
8, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA All Housing Types, each month by year 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 22 23 24 25, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Existing Home Sales District of Columbia All Housing Types, each month by year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 22 23 24 25 Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 28
3, Existing Home Sales Suburban Maryland All Housing Types, each month by year 2,5 2,,5, 22 23 24 25 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5, Existing Home Sales Northern Virginia All Housing Types, each month by year 4, 3, 2, 22 23 24 25, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 29
2, Total Sales by Property Type Washington MSA All Property Types 7K, 8, 6, 4, 2, 7K SFD SFA Condo Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 5 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $377.7K Mar 25 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
$5, $4, $3, $2, $, Median Sale Price March of Each Year Washington MSA All Housing Types D.C. No. VA MSA Sub. MD $ 997 998 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis $,2, $,, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Average Sale Price March of Each Year Washington MSA Single-Family Detached Homes 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 D.C. No. VA MSA Sub. MD Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
$,2, $,, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Average Sale Price March of Each Year Washington MSA Single-Family Attached Homes 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 D.C. MSA No. VA Sub. MD Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis $,2, $,, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Average Sale Price March of Each Year Washington MSA Condo Properties 999 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 25 D.C. MSA No. VA Sub. MD Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 32
4, Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and Listings, 24 Washington MSA Sales New Listings 3, 2,, -, -2, -3, <$2K $2-399K $4-599K $6-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and New Listings, 24 District of Columbia 5 5-5 - Sales New Listings -5 <$2K $2-399K $4-599K $6-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 33
Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and New Listings, 24 Suburban Maryland 2,,5, 5-5 -, Sales New Listings -,5 <$2K $2-399K $4-599K $6-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and New Listings, 24 Northern Virginia 2,5 2,,5, 5-5 -, -,5 Sales New Listings <$2K $2-399K $4-599K $6-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 34
4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2,,5, 5 Washington MSA Building Permits 2 24, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis New Building Permits for Privately Owned Residential Units, WMSA 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 5,, 5, 24: 38K 24: 25K Building Type: 5+ Units 2-4 Units SF - 2 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 2 22 23 24 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 35
Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 24-29 % 4 2 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 27 25 29 (Annual % Change) U.S. -2 Washington -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 36
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 22 23 24* 25 26 27 28 29 D.C. 9.2 3. 6.5 7.9 9.. 2.7.7 Sub. MD 4. 6.. 2.5 7. 2. 6.9 5.8 No. VA 26.4 8.9.3 5.6 22.8 26.7 9. 7.9 REGION 39.6 28. 8.9 36. 48.9 58. 48.6 45.4 Average Annual Change 99-2 = 35,98 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 25) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area, 24-29 (in thousands) Growth Job % of Total Average Value Sectors Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser. 4.4 48.3 $57,969 Construction 48.8 2.5 $,992 Education/Health 28.7 2. $72,62 Hospitality Services 27..4 $5, State and Local 2.2 8.5 $8,736 Sub-Total 239.2.8 $9,749 Overall Total 236.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24$s GMU Center for Regional Analysis 37
Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Area s Other Sectors, 24-29 (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value Change Job Change Added per Job* Federal Gov t - 22.3-9.4 $85,84 Retail Trade.5.2 $64,478 Other Services 2.6. $86,5 Financial Services -.. $62,922 Information Services 2..9 $4,37 Manufacturing.. $249,934 Transportation 8.8 3.7 $23,5 Wholesale Trade 6.2 2.6 $25,783 Sub-Totals - 2.3 -.9 $97,8 Overall Total 236.9. $54,3 Sources: IHS Economics, Inc.; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 24 $s % 6 5 4 3 2 - -2 Economic Outlook (GRP), 27-29 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) SM NV MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 25 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 38
Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 39