University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics and Finance 8-217 Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Adam G. Walke University of Texas at El Paso, agwalke@utep.edu Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo University of Texas at El Paso, eduarteronquillo@miners.utep.edu Omar Solís University of Texas at El Paso, osolis3@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/border_region Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Walke, Adam G.; Ronquillo, Ernesto Duarte; and Solís, Omar, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8" (217). Border Region Modeling Project. 41. https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/border_region/41 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Economics and Finance at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.
August 217 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Adam G. Walke Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo Omar Solís Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number 8 Regional Growth Uptick Indices measuring metropolitan business cycle movements and household economic stress levels indicate that El Paso area economic conditions continue to improve. The El Paso County unemployment rate (with no seasonal adjustment) was 5. percent in June 217, slightly below the value registered in June 216. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) enrollment has also remained below levels recorded last year. The median El Paso County home price in June rose, for the fourth consecutive month, to $15,275. Months of housing inventory remain low by recent historical standards, suggesting a relatively strong local housing market. In contrast to housing prices, gasoline prices in El Paso have declined in recent months. Summer months are usually associated with increases in gasoline prices induced by a seasonal bump in travel demand. This year, however, gasoline prices are lower than in January. Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 5 West University Avenue El Paso, TX 79968-543 Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso Email tomf@utep.edu agwalke@utep.edu Telephone 915-747-7747 915-747-7775 Fax 915-747-6282 Unemployment rates in El Paso and Doña Ana counties often tend to increase between May and June due to seasonal factors. That is true again this year, but the increases are relatively small. In the case of Doña Ana County, the unemployment rate rose to only 7.4 percent in June, compared to rates of more than 8 percent recorded in June of every year since 29. Though the most recent unemployment figure is preliminary and subject to change, it may augur a long-awaited improvement in Las Cruces area economic conditions. In another promising sign for the local economy, SNAP enrollments grew relatively little between April and June of this year. The peso-to-dollar nominal exchange rate has declined in recent months and it appears to be gradually converging towards the restaurant price ratio series collected by the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP). The latter has risen slightly, coinciding with somewhat higher general price inflation this year in Mexico relative to the United States. These trends have led to a reduction in the real exchange rate index calculated by the BRMP using data on nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in the United States and Mexico. The real exchange rate index in June was 118.3, the same as the figure recorded in March of 216. International bridge crossings have remained near the levels observed during the first half of 216. The sharp reduction in the purchasing power of the peso observed Website through January of this year appears to have had relatively little effect on the total http://academics.utep.edu/border number of northbound pedestrian and personal vehicle border crossings in the El Paso- Ciudad Juárez area. The border crossing data aggregate trips by United States and Mexican residents. Even though the total number of cross-border trips has not Border Commerce & Economics changed drastically in the last year it is possible that the recent exchange rate fluctuations may have changed the nationality composition of cross border traffic flows as consumers who earn dollar incomes can find relative bargains on items purchased in Mexico. Northbound cargo vehicle border crossings grew by about 3.1 percent during the first half 217 compared to the same period last year. Real and nominal total trade through the El Paso Customs District, which covers the ports from Antelope Wells to Presidio, increased in May and June. Export-oriented manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juárez rose to 279,972 in May 217, 9.1 percent above the figure for May 216. Other indicators for Ciudad Juárez and the state of Chihuahua indicate generally stable economic conditions.
Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 24 216-217 6'.,,,,,,.,_ Jllllll"""",... I I I I I I I I I Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 6' 223 +--l II O'\... ;... cu,.d 22 +----.'------..._, >< cu "'d -"'d 21 -----..-----! ::s <r: >-. 2 +--'II-... cu r/1 19 -+--------' 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
El Paso Household Economic Stress Index 216-217 >< 5 +-_..,.,.--=-==----'. ----::;;o--i i:::... Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
El Paso Household Economic Stress Index -15 -+- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
El Paso County Unemployment Rate 216-217 +J b 4 -+--------! <;\ '\<;> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
El Paso County Unemployment Rate,,...,, 1 "'d (1)... ::s 9 >.. i::: 8 (1) r./'1... 6 (1)... (1) 7 6..... E (1) 5 4 -+-----' 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 216-217.el 185, +----------------------:::;;m::... -----..,-------l i:: Cl)........ u Cl)... i 18, +-----"'11111...,..._---------------------------l r./j. c...,... Cl),. ) z 175, -+------------------------------! Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
2, El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment........ u CJ.) :::... 18, i 16, r:/). 4-; ;..., CJ.).r:J z 14, 12, 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Starting in September, 214, the number of SNAP recipients is recorded for the end of each month. Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
El Paso Median Housing Prices 216-21 7 Cl) u. ;:::::....5 E z $145, $14, Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
El Paso Median Housing Prices v (.) i:::... ca.5 E z $14, $13, $12, $11, ----------------------.---' 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso 216-217 1 r:n 6. -1--------------------------..--------l Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso -+-.------' 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
El Paso Gasoline Prices 216-217,.--..., = ;... Cl).. rn a ::::::l '--" Cl) u i:....s $2.5 $2. E $1.5 z Source: GasBuddy.com
$3. El Paso Gasoline Prices """"' $4. -+-----------------------------------! ;..., Cl)... :::::::I..._,, -t---_...,._.._.... $. -<------------------ 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: GasBuddy.com
Dona Ana County Unemployment Rate 8.5 216-217 (!)... IJl ;:::! < h IJl ro (!) r./'l... 6 (!) ::: 1:: (!) 5 >... -... 5 (!) : 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. -.-- lb-<:, \ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dofta Ana County Unemployment Rate,,.-.,. 8 -f----------j "'d (l) +-> r:n ;:::l 7 ;-----------'---W..--------J-Wl,---9--------------- ----.---, i::: r:n 6 -+-------------------------------------< 'C/J +-> 6 5.,_------------11tt-----------------------------j ::: 1:: (l) E S4 +--_..'-----='---9-------------------------------------1.. 5 i:: 3 -+-----------------------------------< 2 -+- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases 216-217 rfl ;..., Cl),. :) 29, -+-----k------------------------1 z 26, --..------------------,..., Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Q) 3, -t---------------------------lt--l u... <l'.'. z r/j 4-< ;... Q).D z 2, -+--------------------------------! 1, --+----------------- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 216 Restaurant Price Ratio - 216 Nominal Exchange Rate - 217 Restaurant Price Ratio - 217 Nominal Exchange Rate 2 ::::::i Cl 18 16 -!.. Q)... 14 12 1, N, :V '\'b- Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate - Restaurant Price Ratio - Nominal Exchange Rate 8 ::::::::l Q!-+ Q) 16 -+--------j rfj rfj Q)... 8 -+- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index 21 6-21 7,.-,. 14 -t- 8 - II 11 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Real Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate Index 6' II {'"-- 11 -+------.-----------1.., >< $::::... 7 -+--.-----------.----.-, 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,2, 216-217 Cl)... u t+-< ;... Cl) z 1,1, 1,, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,5, --------------------------- 1,4, Q)... u 1,1, +----------'"--111------------------ 4-l!--; ] 1,, -+----------------------------- s z 9, 6, -+------------------- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 216-217 rn - 6, rn cu "'C cu... ;... cu.d 5, z 4, ---------------------- 'b-<;\ \-::> Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 8, rn.e 7, (1) "O (1).. 4-o 1--o (1) 6, 3 z 5, 4, -+--------------------...----' 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 216-217 rn u 2 7, f--< u (+...; ii), :) s 6, z 5, ------------------------! :\> '\ Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso r:n 7, -+--- - bl) ;..., u 4-o ;..., Q), :; 5, -+-----------------------------I 3, --+-------------------- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
V'l Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District 216-217 $1, ------------------------------ Q + t $7, -+---------------------------------<.. &j '--" l-+ r ] $6, -+-----------------------<.;:,. \'?!- Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
Vl a ::::::l Cl.s E z <.+-.; Vl i::: a.s,,---._ Vl t::.. E... + Vl t::.. >< w '--' Cl) "O ro ca... $1, $8, $6, $4, Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $2, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District 216-217 C/'l :::::::! Q N O'\ -c..-. C/'l i::: ;:.s Cl) '"d Cd... $5, $4,5 $4, $3,5 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District rll @ ::::::l Cl N O'\ -I..+-; rll i::: s.s Cl) "'d ca... $5, $4, $3, $1, ------------------,--J 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 216-217 29, 28, ti)., ) _, (+..., ;... Cl)., ) z 27, 26, 25, 24, Source: INEGI
Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juarez 14, -+---------------------------- 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: INEGI
Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 216-217 6'... I Cl) '.._,/ >< Cl) "'d... 6 55 5 45 4 -t-----< 'b-<;\ '\ Source: Banco de México
Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index I 3 -+- 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Banco de México
Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 215-216 1 -+-, Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI
Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 6' II 8 1 -+-------.-------,.._---... 1---a--------------1 N '-" ><... 6 -+- 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: INEGI
Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 216-217 2,, Cl)... N, N Cl) -. I.._. '"d ;:j... 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, Source: INEGI
Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua <l)... N 1,5, N <l)... (+...; 'g 1,25, -+---- "' ;:j 75, -+-------------------------- 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: INEGI
Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 216-217 225. 2. 6' ii" 175. N '--" 15. "'d i:: - 125. 1. Source: INEGI
Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 6' 15. -+----------------t----- '-' >< Cl) "O... = 75. -+-------------------- 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: INEGI
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President Howard Daudistel, Interim Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice Provost UTEP College of Business Administration Robert Nachtmann, Dean Steve Johnson, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness City of El Paso Office of Management & Budget UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: http://academics.utep.edu/border. For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 5 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX 79968-543, USA, (915) 747-7775.