Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Recommendation BUY Extended winter will support near term RESULT!!! CMP 381 Upside 15-20% Sector Stock Details Textile BSE Code 538836 NSE Code Bloomberg Code Montecarlo MOCF IN Market Cap (Rs cr) 828 Free Float (%) 35.23 52- wk HI/Lo (Rs) 664/328 Avg. volume (BSE+NSE) (Quarterly) 51040 Face Value (Rs) 10 Dividend (FY 18) 12 Shares o/s (Crs) 2.17 Relative Performance 1Mth 3Mth 1Yr Monte -1.3% 2.6% -37.8% Sensex -1.2% 1.5% 5.1% 650.00 600.00 550.00 500.00 450.00 400.00 350.00 300.00 Shareholding Pattern Sep 18 Promoters Holding 64.77 Institutional (Incl. FII) 7.27 Corporate Bodies 5.64 Public & others 22.32 Akansha Jain (+91 22 3926-8034) Research Analyst akansha.jain@nirmalbang.com Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd, established in 1984, has a comprehensive product portfolio of garment & winter wears across woolen, cotton & cotton blended, home furnishing and kids segments. Company sells its product under umbrella brand of Monte Carlo. As on Sep 18, the company has 2500+ MBO, 242 EBO &334 NCS. Q3 is the seasonally strong quarter as this season sales comprises of Winter wear & cotton wear Investment Rational Buy back with no promoter participation - As on Sep 2018, promoter holding in the company stands at 64.77%, and since the promoters are not participating in the buyback their holding post buy back would increase to 67.9%, Other than this, buy back will lead to effective cost of buying to come down which will create room of safety for investors. At CMP of Rs 381, with 15% acceptance ratio at a price of Rs 550, the effective cost of buying share will come down to Rs 351. With buyback return ratio will also improve Lower interest in midcap stock with Weak H1 led to attractive valuation- On half yearly basis; H1FY19 vs. H1FY18, company sales grew by 9.8%, However, Ebitda margins depressed by 546 bps. Inspite of this, for the year, the management has maintained its guidance for 15% growth and stable margin at last year i.e.17.5%, indicating improved performance in Q3 which is seasonally strong quarter contributing around 55-60% of revenue. From Dec 31 2017, till date share price has corrected by ~38%. This correction we feel is mainly due to lower interest in mid cap stock and Weak H1 result. With Q3 to be strong we expect MCFL to give reasonable return in near term. Strong brand - Monte Carlo enjoys a good brand name and customer loyalty. and is recognized as Super Brand for woolen knitted apparel since Sep 2004 Diversification of business portfolio Over FY12-18, the cotton segment has grown at a CAGR of 10.8%, Home furnishing by 126.6%, & kids wear grew by 43.4% whereas woolen segment has grown at a CAGR of 1.4%. Higher growth in cotton, home furnishing and kids wear segment is helping the company in diversifying and expanding its reach to different geographies. Valuation & Recommendation Over F12-18, company sales has grown at a CAGR of 9.6%, operating profit has grown by 3.5%. Going ahead, Q3 being the best quarter and with extended winter this season we expect management will be able to meet its guidance and company s sales to grow by 15% in FY19E. We expect operating margins to remain stable at 17.5%. Management has guided average sustaining capex to be in the range of Rs 8-10 cr on yearly basis in the next two years and near term growth would be achieved by higher capacity utilization. Higher profit with low capex will generate higher FCFF. Higher operating margins will lead ROE & ROCE to improve to 12.9% & 16.6% in FY19E.We expect company to report EBITDA of Rs 115.9 cr in FY19E and is likely to do PAT of Rs 66.5cr and EPS of Rs 30.5 in FY19E At CMP, the share is trading at EV/Ebitda of 6.6x and PE of 12.5x FY19E EPS. We recommend a BUY on Monte Carlo for 15 20% return in near term. Year Net Sales Growth % EBITDA Margin % PAT Margin% EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROE % FY15 582.6 15.7% 124.2 21.3% 61.0 10.5% 28.1 13.6 6.6 14.8% FY16 621.5 6.7% 123.3 19.8% 58.8 9.5% 27.0 14.1 6.7 12.2% FY17 578.5-6.9% 77.6 13.4% 44.4 7.7% 20.4 18.7 10.0 8.9% FY18* 575.9-0.4% 100.8 17.5% 59.8 10.4% 27.5 13.9 7.7 11.3% *FY18 numbers are restated as per INDAS. Previous nos are not comparable 1
Business Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd, established in 1984, is recognized as Superbrand for woolen knitted apparels by Consumer Superbrands India since 2004. Under the umbrella brand of Monte Carlo, Company has a comprehensive product portfolio across woolen, cotton & cotton blended, home furnishing and kids segments. The Company has various sub-brands under the Umbrella Brand Monte Carlo Product portfolio and Ranges of Brand Monte Carlo Woolens & Woolenblended Cottons & Cottonblended Home Furnishing Kids Monte Carlo Premium and mid-premium segments for men Luxuria Premium range for Men Denim Mid-premium Range Alpha Exclusive range for Women Tweens Exclusive Kids wear Collection for 7-13 years age group Cloak & Decker Economy range for men Sportswear fitness & fashion wear range Rock.it Sweaters, Pullovers thermals, woolen accessories (caps, mufflers, shawls, stoles) Cash-wool sweaters, blazers, coats Sweaters, cardigans Shirts, trousers, t- shirts, track-suits and jackets Cotton shirts, trousers and t-shirts Denim trousers (jeans) and shirts Shirts, t-shirts, tops, trousers, jackets and sweat-shirts Cotton and cottonblended t-shirts Tank, Polo T-Shirts, Shorts, Track Pants Mink blankets, bed sheets and quilts Sweat-shirts Sweaters, Cardigans, Shirts, t-shirts &Bottoms The company has 3 manufacturing facilities in Ludhiana, Punjab - 1 for woolen apparels & 2 for cotton apparels. The manufacturing facilities include facilities for product development, design studio and sampling infrastructure. The company has recently started in-house manufacturing of cotton t-shirts and thermals. The home furnishing products are outsourced from a network of job work entities. The company has wide-spread retail presence across India through a judicious mix of EBOs, MBOs and national chain stores located in 22 states & 1 union territory As on Sep 2018 Multi Brand Outlet National Chain Stores Exclusive Brand Outlet Co Owned Co Operated Exclusive Brand Outlet Franchise Owned Franchise Operated Total Number of Outlets 2500+ 334 25 217 % of Revenue Contribution 63% (MBO+NCS) 4% 29% Distribution Sale Model Pre-Booking of orders Outright Sales SOR Sale or Return / Outright Sales Inventory owned by Company Pre-Booking of orders Outright sale Inventory Risk No Yes Yes Minimal (5% - 15 % of Products Return Allowed) Discount Sharing No Yes Yes Yes (Range of 5% - 17.5%) Payment Collection Credit Exclusive commissioned Reputed retail chains - Bank guarantee's and Risk agents are liable to pay PDC taken from franchise 2
CMP Geography wise Of these EBOs, 2 EBO are in Nepal and 1 in Bangladesh. Other than this, the company has E- commerce presence through its own portal www.montecarlo.in and www.rockit.co.in as well as tie-ups with Digital platforms such as Flipkart, Amazon, Jabong, Myntra & Kapsons etc. Online sales currently contributes 4% to the revenue Quarter Sales(%) Q1 10-15% Company has very high seasonality in sales with Q3 (Oct Dec) quarter contributing Q2 15-20% over 55% of annual sales. This is mainly because of sales of winter wear are Q3 55-60% concentrated in this quarter Q4 10-15% Revenue Contribution (FY18) Segment wis 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5% 13% 9% 4% 3% 14% 13% 13% 16% 22% 25% 57% 59% 27% 26% 24% 25% 51% 53% 53% 51% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 North East central South West 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 57% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% 10% 9% 8% 48% 51% 53% 51% 58% 61% 42% 43% 37% 35% 34% 28% 26% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Wollen Segment Cotton segment Home Furnishings Kids Being largely dependent on woolen segment the company was more focused towards north and east. However, the company plans to expand in western and southern markets in India with diversification of its product portfolio. Investment Rationale Buy back with no promoter participation Monte Carlo is doing Buy-Back of 1,000,000 Equity Shares at a price of Rs 550 per share for an aggregate maximum amount of Rs 55 crore. Promoter will not be participating in offer. As on Sep 2018, promoter holding in the company stands at 64.77%, and since the promoters are not participating in the buyback their holding in the company post buy back would increase to 67.9%. Other than this, the buyback will lead to effective cost of buying coming down. This creates room of safety for investors. At CMP of Rs 381, with 15% acceptance ratio at a price of Rs 550, the effective cost of buying share will come down to Rs 351 ( ~-7.9% from the buy price). The following table shows what will be the effective cost of buying on different acceptance ratio. Apart from this buyback ratio will improve the ROE & ROCE of the company Adjusted Price to Buy back Acceptance ratio 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 381 362 351 339 325 309 290 3
Lower interest in midcap stock with Weak H1 led to attractive valuation On half yearly basis, H1FY19 vs. H1FY18, company sales grew by 9.8%.increase in sales led to higher gross margins which improved by 85.6 bps. However, Ebitda margins of the company depressed by 546.3 bps coming in at 15.2% in H1FY19 vs. 20.6% in H1FY18. Dip in Ebitda margins was mainly due to higher advertisement and other expenses. Advertisement cost came at Rs.14.3 Cr in H1FY19 vs. Rs 8.4 cr in H1FY18.Other expenses for the company came in at Rs 52.5 cr in H1FY19 vs. Rs 41.9 cr in H1FY18. For the year, the management has maintained its guidance for 15% growth and stable margin at last year level i.e.17.5%. With Dip in margins in H1FY19 and Q4 being seasonally loss making, this translates Q3 margins to be strong. Q3 being the best quarter for the company (records ~55% of yearly sales); with extended winter season we feel the company will be able to achieve its yearly guidance. Higher sales will in turn improve the margins of the company. From Dec 31 2017, till date price has corrected by ~38%. This correction we feel is mainly due to lower interest in mid cap stock and Weak H1 result. With Q3 to be strong we expect prices will bottom out and would move from here. At CMP, Share is trading at EV/Ebitda of 6.6x and PE of 12.5x FY19E EPS Strong brand Monte Carlo enjoys a good brand name and customer loyalty. The company s marketing plans which includes advertising, endorsements through well-known personalities etc. helps the company to create awareness amongst the people especially youngsters. Monte Carlo is recognized as Super Brand for woolen knitted apparel since Sep 2004. Diversification of business portfolio Over FY12-18, the cotton segment has grown at a CAGR of 10.8%, Home furnishing by 126.6%, & kids wear grew by 43.4% whereas woolen segment has grown at a CAGR of 1.4%. Higher growth in cotton, home furnishing and kids wear segment is helping the company in diversifying and expanding its reach to different geographies. Monte Carlo was majorly depended on woolen segment. As such earlier its sales was majorly from northern and the eastern region. With the focus on different segment like cotton, home furnishing, kids, Monte Carlo contribution of central, western, southern region are increasing FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Woollen Segment 43% 37% 35% 34% 28% 26% Cotton segment 48% 51% 53% 51% 58% 61% Home Furnishings 7% 8% 8% 10% 9% 8% Kids 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 4
Key Risks and concerns The company has high dependency on woolen yarn which it purchases from its group company who in turn imports it from Australia The company s business being seasonal in nature generates largest revenue in the winter season (~55%). Any delay in the winter season would lead to low generation of the revenue and will in turn impact the total revenues for the fiscal year. Winter is highly seen in the northern and the eastern region. As such company is more dependent on northern and eastern region. Any change in demand from this region would affect the financial performance of the company Valuation and Recommendation We have compared MCFL with Kewal Kiran Clothing, Page Industries and Indian terrain. Although the business is not completely comparable the comparison is primarily on the basis of competition, brand image, style, performance and quality. Valuations for MCFL at PE of 13.9x and 7.7x its EV/EBIDTA for FY 18 earnings are lower than the peer group. FY18 Sales EBITDA Margin PAT Margin EPS PE EV/EBITDA ROE Monte Carlo 575.9 100.8 17.5% 59.8 10.4% 27.5 13.9 7.7 11.3% Kewal Kiran 460.3 98.22 21.3% 73.19 15.9% 59.4 21.3 16.4 18.3% Page Industries 2551.4 541.72 21.2% 346.98 13.6% 311.2 72.9 46.8 41.0% Indian Terrain 401.5 47.81 11.9% 25.44 6.3% 6.7 20.6 11.7 12.5% Source: Company Data, NBRR Over F12-18, company sales has grown at a CAGR of 9.6%, operating profit has grown by 3.5%. Going ahead, Q3 being the best quarter and with extended winter this season we expect management will be able to meet its guidance and company s sales to grow by 15% in FY19E. We expect operating margins to remain stable at 17.5%. Management has guided average sustaining capex to be in the range of Rs 8-10 cr on yearly basis in the next two years and near term growth would be achieved by higher capacity utilization. Higher profit with low capex will generate higher FCFF. Higher operating margins will lead ROE & ROCE to improve to 12.9% & 16.6% in FY19E.We expect company to report EBITDA of Rs 115.9 cr in FY19E and is likely to do PAT of Rs 66.5cr and EPS of Rs 30.59 in FY19E At CMP, the share is trading at EV/Ebitda of 6.6x and PE of 12.5x FY19E EPS. We recommend a BUY on Monte Carlo for 15 20% return in near term. 5
Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 PE Band - Price 12x 15x 18x 23x Half Yearly Financials H1FY19 H1FY18 Var Net Sales 185.0 168.6 9.8% Gross Profit 124.0 111.5 11.2% Gross Margin (% of net sales) 67.0% 66.2% 85.62 Total Expenditure 157.0 133.83 17.3% EBITDA 28.0 34.8-19.3% % of net sales 15.2% 20.6% -546.38 Net Profit 13.2 20.8-36.6% Equity 2.2 2.2 EPS (Unit Curr.) 6.1 9.6 Source: Company data, Nirmal Bang Securities Q3 is the best quarter for the company due to winter sale + cotton sales. Although gross margins improved by 85.6 bps but Ebitda margins declined by 546.3 bps due to higher other expense and advertisement cost. Advertisement cost came at Rs.14.3 Cr in H1FY19 vs. Rs 8.4 cr in H1FY18. Other expenses for the company came in at Rs 52.5 cr in H1FY19 vs. Rs 41.9 cr in H1FY18. 6
Financials Income Statement (Rs. In Cr) FY16 FY17 FY18 Balance Sheet (Rs. In Cr) FY16 FY17 FY18 Revenues - Net 621.5 578.5 575.9 Issued Share Capital 21.7 21.7 21.7 % change 6.7% -6.9% -0.4% Reserves & Surplus 457.4 474.2 507.2 EBITDA 123.3 77.6 100.8 Net Worth 479.2 495.9 528.9 EBITDA margin 19.8% 13.4% 17.5% Minority Interest Depreciation 29.3 24.7 21.0 Net Deferred Tax liabilities 0.2 0.0 0.0 Operating income 94.0 52.8 79.9 Total Loans 98.4 65.4 55.7 Interest 16.2 11.7 7.7 Trade Payables 106.8 103.3 110.2 Other Income 13.9 23.9 17.8 Provisions 2.6 5.5 3.3 PBT 91.7 65.0 89.9 Other CL 29.3 33.5 44.9 Exceptional (Gain)/ Loss -0.2-0.3-0.1 Total Liabilities 716.4 703.7 743.0 PBT 91.6 64.7 89.9 Net Fixed Assets 163.9 165.6 156.3 Tax 32.9 20.6 30.1 Tax Asset 1.6 6.0 11.4 PAT 58.7 44.2 59.7 Investments 58.4 116.8 128.3 Minority intererst / share of associate 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventories 221.8 202.0 200.5 PAT 58.7 44.2 59.7 Cash and cash equivalent 70.8 26.0 18.1 APAT 58.8 44.4 59.8 Sundry Debtors 151.7 146.3 192.6 Shares o/s ( No. in Cr.)* 2.2 2.2 2.2 Loans & Advances 5.2 4.0 4.2 Adj EPS 27.0 20.4 27.5 Other CA 43.0 36.8 31.6 Quarterly (Rs. In Cr)(stand) Dec.17 Mar.18 Jun.18 Sep.18 Total Assets 716.4 703.4 743.0 Revenue including OI 355.9 86.3 59.2 125.8 Cash Flow (Rs. In Cr) FY16 FY17 FY18 EBITDA 79.9-13.3 13.3 14.7 EBITDA 123.3 77.6 100.8 Dep 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.7 Exceptional & forex -0.2-0.3-0.1 PBIT 74.5-18.4 8.7 10.0 Change in WC -88.5 36.2-23.8 Interest 2.5 1.6 1.6 2.5 Tax -32.9-20.6-30.1 Other Inc. 0.9 8.0 3.2 3.8 CF from Operations 1.8 92.9 46.8 Forex & exceptional 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex and change in WIP -10.8-23.7-12.1 PBT 72.8-12.0 10.3 11.3 Investment -10.4-58.4-11.6 Tax 25.0-3.2 4.1 4.3 Other Income 13.9 23.9 17.8 PAT 47.8-8.8 6.2 6.9 Cash from Investment -7.3-58.1-5.9 Comprehensive income 0.0-0.4 0.1 0.1 Dividend paid -26.3-26.3-26.2 Total Comprehensive income 47.8-9.2 6.3 7.0 Share Capital and Premium 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (Rs.) 22.0-4.1 2.9 3.2 Interest Paid -16.2-11.7-7.7 Operational Ratio FY16 FY17 FY18 Change in Borrwing -30.4-32.9-9.7 EBIT margin (%) 15.1% 9.1% 13.9% Others 67.1-8.7-5.2 Adj.PAT margin (%) 9.5% 7.7% 10.4% Cash from Financing -5.8-79.6-48.8 Adj. ROE (%) 12.2% 8.9% 11.3% Net change in Cash -11.3-44.8-7.9 ROCE (%) 16.3% 9.4% 13.7% Opening cash balance 82.1 70.8 26.0 Debt Equity Ratio 0.21 0.13 0.11 Closing cash balance 70.8 26.0 18.1 Valuation Ratio FY16 FY17 FY18 Per Share Data FY16 FY17 FY18 Price Earnings (x) 14.1 18.7 13.9 Cash EPS 40.5 31.7 37.1 Price / Book Value (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 BV per share 220.5 228.2 243.4 EV / Sales 1.3 1.3 1.3 Cash per share 32.6 12.0 8.3 EV / EBIDTA 6.7 10.0 7.7 Dividend per share 10.0 10.0 12.0 Source: Company data, Nirmal Bang Securities *FY18 numbers are restated as per INDAS. Previous nos are not comparable 7
Disclosure: This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBSPL ) for private circulation. NBSPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001766. NBSPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. It is also a registered Portfolio Manager having registration no as INP000002981. NBSPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBSPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBSPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBSPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBSPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives hold / do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBSPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBSPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBSPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I, Akansha Jain, the research analysts and authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 8
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