ROMANIA Press Office 16 Libertăţii Avenue, Sector 5, Bucharest Phone/Fax: 318 18 69; Fax 312 48 75 e-mail: romstat@insse.ro; biroupresa@insse.ro PRESS RELEASE No. 160 of July 4, 2013 Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter 2013 - provisional data (2) - In Q1 2013, GDP increase by 2.2% as against Q1 2012, unadjusted series, and by 0.6% as against Q4 2012, seasonally adjusted series.. The evolution of quarterly GDP for 2011 Q1 2013, unadjusted and seasonally adjusted series, is presented in the table belllow. Quarterly Gross domestic product Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year - in % as against the corresponding period of the previous year - Unadjusted series 2010 101.5 101.2 104.1 101.6 102.2 2011 100.4 101.9 99.5 101.1 100.7 2012 102.2 - - - - Seasonally adjusted 2010 101.6 100.8 103.5 101.8 - series 2011 100.5 101.8 99.5 101.1-2012 101.9 - - - - - in % as against the previous quarter - Seasonally adjusted 2010 101.1 99.6 101.9 99.4 - series 2011 99.7 100.8 99.6 100.9-2012 100.6 - - - - The revision of GDP estimated for Q1 2013 provisional data (2) was based on: - detailed data on budgetary executions and accounting data for public companies reclassified into General Government sector used for compiling the full sequence of accounts for this sector; - rectified data on imports and exports of goods and services from the Balance of payments. 1
Seasonally adjusted series The Gross Domestic Product seasonally adjusted data - estimated for Q1 2013 amounted to 154233.1 million lei current prices, increasing in real terms by 0.6% against Q4 2012 and by 1.9% against Q1 2012. Quarterly GDP, in Q1 2013 - seasonally adjusted series Q1 2013 Millions RON, current prices In % as against the previous quarter In % as against the corresponding period of the previous year Provisional (1) 154887.5 Provisional (2) 154233.1 Differences -654.4 Provisional (1) 100.7 Provisional (2) 100.6 Differences -0.1 Provisional (1) 102.2 Provisional (2) 101.9 Differences -0.3 Unadjusted series The Gross Domestic Product estimated for Q1 2013 amounted to 120895.6 million lei current prices, increasing in real terms by 2.2% against Q1 2012. Quarterly GDP, in Q1 2013 - unadjusted series Trim. I 2013 Millions RON, current prices In % as against the corresponding period of the previous year Provisional (1) 121447.7 Provisional (2) 120895.6 Differences -552.1 Provisional (1) 102.2 Provisional (2) 102.2 Differences 0.0 2
As compared to the provisional version (1), the GDP and the Gross value added growth rates, by industries, did not recorded any changes; the net taxes on products growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points as a consequence of the volume growth of taxes collected by the state budget, form +1,3 to 1.5%. The contribution of GDP resources to the nominal value and growth rate of GDP, in Q1 2013 Contribution to the nominal value of GDP - % Contribution to the growth rate of GDP - % Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 3.1-0.3-0.3 Minning and quarrying; manufacturing; 28.8 28.9 0.7 0.7 Construction 4.5 4.5 0.1 0.1 Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants 12.7 12.7 0.4 0.4 Information and communication 3.9 3.9 0.3 0.3 Financial intermediation and insurance 3.2 3.3 0.1 0.1 Real estate activities 7.1 7.1 0.2 0.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities; activities of administrative services and support services 5.3 5.3 0.4 0.4 Public administration and defence; social insurance of public sector; education; health and social assistance 14.6 14.0 0.0 0.0 Shows, culture and recreation activities; repair of households goods and other services 3.3 3.3 0.1 0.1 Gross value added 86.5 86.1 2.0 2.0 Net taxes on products 13.5 13.9 0.2 0.2 Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 2.2 2.2 From GDP uses standpoint, significant changes in the contribution to the growth rate of GDP between the two estimates were recorded for: - Gross fixed capital formation, form -0.1% to -1.0%, due to the change in its volume by -4.7 percentage points (from 99.3% to 94.6%); the decrease was determined by the rectification of the General Government sector investments value; - Net export of goods and services, which recorded a positive contribution to GDP growth rate, by 4.4%. 3
The contribution of GDP expenditure to the nominal value and growth rate of GDP, in Q1 2013 Contribution to the nominal value of GDP - % Contribution to the growth rate of GDP - % Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Total final consumption 85.1 84.4-0.2-0.2 Actual individual consumption of households 76.9 76.6-0.2-0.2 Final consumption expenditure of households 64.7 64.9-0.2-0.2 Final consumption expenditure of Non-profit institutions serving households 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 Individual final consumption expenditure of General government 11.4 10.9 0.0 0.0 Collective final consumption expenditure of General government 8.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 Gross fixed capital formation 18.2 17.5-0.1-1.0 Change in inventories -1.9-2.2-0.5-1.0 Net export -1.4 0.3 3.0 4.4 Export of goods and services 47.9 50.6 2.0 4.4 Import of goods and services 49.3 50.3-1.0 0.0 Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 2.2 2.2 4
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY RESOURCES AND USES, IN Q1 2013 Milions RON current prices - unadjusted series - Volume indices Price indices în % as against în % as against Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3770.8 92.0 104.1 Minning and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and supply; water supply; sewerage, waste management and decontamination activities 34911.6 102.6 105.5 Construction 5503.2 101.6 98.3 Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants 15306.3 103.2 97.8 Information and communication 4687.4 108.8 100.0 Financial intermediation and insurance 3931.5 102.6 105.6 Real estate activities 8608.6 102.6 101.0 Professional, scientific and technical activities; activities of administrative services and support services 6389.6 106.8 102.8 Public administration and defence; social insurance of public sector; education; health and social assistance 16973.0 100.2 112.3 Shows, culture and recreation activities; repair of households goods and other services 3952.6 101.3 105.7 Gross value added 104034.6 102.3 104.1 Net taxes on products 1) 16861.0 101.5 109.9 Gross domestic product 120895.6 102.2 104.9 Final consumption 102098.4 99.7 104.3 Actual individual consumption of households 2) 92609.4 99.7 103.9 Final consumption expenditure of households 78483.0 99.7 103.2 Final consumption expenditure of Non-profit institutions serving households 1001.1 101.5 103.7 Individual final consumption expenditure of General government 13125.3 99.9 108.3 Collective final consumption expenditure of General government 3) 9489.0 99.7 108.6 Gross capital formation 18471.8 88.4 103.7 of which: Gross fixed capital formation 21098.3 94.6 101.5 Net export 325.4 - - Export of goods and services 61115.1 109.1 101.3 Import of goods and services 60789.7 99.9 100.1 1) Represents the difference between taxes on product due to the State Budget (VAT, excise duties, other taxes) and product subsidies paid from the State Budget. 2) Comprises: expenditure of population households for purchasing goods and services in view to meet their members needs, the expenditure for individual consumption of public administration (education, health, social security and social activities, culture, sport, leisure activities, collection of household waste) and the expenditure for individual consumption of non-profit institutions serving households (religious organisations, trade unions, political parties, unions, foundations, cultural and sport associations). 3) Comprises the expenditure for collective consumption of public administration (general public services, national defence and territory security, public order and security, legislative and regulatory activities, research & development, etc.). 5
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY RESOURCES AND USES, IN Q1 2013 Milions RON current prices - seasonally adjusted series - Volume indices Price indices în % as against în % as against Q4 2012 Q4 2012 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8297.6 99.4 113.6 Minning and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and supply; water supply; sewerage, waste management and decontamination activities 42388.2 101.0 96.8 Construction 12423.1 101.0 99.2 Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants 16845.2 100.3 98.2 Information and communication 6047.5 96.3 101.7 Financial intermediation and insurance 3998.5 100.6 102.2 Real estate activities 12534.4 101.2 97.9 Professional, scientific and technical activities; activities of administrative services and support services 9640.1 95.8 106.5 Public administration and defence; social insurance of public sector; education; health and social assistance 16579.6 99.3 102.9 Shows, culture and recreation activities; repair of households goods and other services 4026.2 130.3 77.8 Gross value added 132780.4 100.4 99.8 Net taxes on products 1) 19319.0 99.7 104.6 Statistical discrepancy 2133.7 - - Produs Intern Brut 154233.1 100.6 102.8 Final consumption 116254.7 99.4 103.2 Actual individual consumption of households 2) 106156.9 99.5 102.7 Final consumption expenditure of households 90549.7 99.5 102.7 Final consumption expenditure of Non-profit institutions serving households 2012.1 100.4 100.4 Individual final consumption expenditure of General government 13595.1 98.6 103.0 Collective final consumption expenditure of General government 3) 10097.8 98.2 110.4 Gross capital formation 36932.4 96.0 100.1 of which: Gross fixed capital formation 37405.5 97.8 101.3 Net export -4161.2 - - Export of goods and services 61623.5 109.1 91.6 Import of goods and services 65784.7 102.6 98.0 Statistical discrepancy 5207.2 - - 1) Represents the difference between taxes on product due to the State Budget (VAT, excise duties, other taxes) and product subsidies paid from the State Budget. 2) Comprises: expenditure of population households for purchasing goods and services in view to meet their members needs, the expenditure for individual consumption of public administration (education, health, social security and social activities, culture, sport, leisure activities, collection of household waste) and the expenditure for individual consumption of non-profit institutions serving households (religious organisations, trade unions, political parties, unions, foundations, cultural and sport associations). 3) Comprises the expenditure for collective consumption of public administration (general public services, national defence and territory security, public order and security, legislative and regulatory activities, research & development, etc.). 6
Methodological notes The quarterly Gross Domestic Product at market prices (QGDP), the main macroeconomic aggregate of national accountancy, represents the final result of production activities carried out by resident productive units, during a defined period, namely a quarter. The quarterly Gross Domestic Product at market prices is estimated based on two methods: a) production method: QGDP = GVA+TP-PS, where: GVA = gross value added at basic price; TP = taxes on product; PS = product subsidies b) expenditure method: QGDP = FC+GCF+E-I, where: FC = actual final consumption; GCF = gross capital formation; E = exports of goods and services; I = imports of goods and services. The main data sources used for the estimation of quarterly Gross Domestic Product: statistical sources: infra-annual surveys on industrial production, construction, services, trade; the agricultural production account; infra-annual surveys on earnings and employees number; financial-bookkeeping sources: balance sheets of financial institutions; administrative sources: execution of state budget and of local budgets, as well as of state social insurance budget; balance of payments. Estimation of production in current prices: - for non-financial companies (enterprises), population households and non-profit institutions it was estimated by activity branches, extrapolating the production level of the same quarter of the previous year, using the volume, price and value indices available from statistical data sources; - for financial companies and public administrations it was directly determined based on administrative data sources (balance sheets and budgets execution). Estimation of intermediate consumption: - for non-financial companies (enterprises), population households and non-profit institutions it was estimated by activity branches applying the weight of intermediate consumption in output for the same quarter of the previous year, for which more complete and reliable data sources were available, based on the assumption that the technological coefficient are unchanged; - for financial companies and public administrations it was directly determined based on administrative data sources (balance sheets and budgets). Estimation of Gross Value Added: The Gross Value Added was calculated as the difference between production and intermediate consumption. Calculation of taxes and subsidies on product: based on the data from the consolidated budget. 7
The quarterly Gross Domestic Product is estimated at current prices, at the prices of the previous year corresponding period and at average prices of the year 2000. The estimates at average prices of the year 2000 are compiled by chaining the volume indices. Beside the raw estimates of quarterly Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted estimates are also compiled through the regressive method, this being the method recommended by the European regulations. Seasonal adjustment envisages the removal of seasonal effects from the data series in view to point out the real economic evolution during consecutive periods 1. For the adjustment of main aggregate series, based on which the GDP is estimated through the production and the expenditure methods, the DEMETRA package is used (TRAMO/SEATS method). This leads to the estimation of seasonal effect (events occurring at the same moment, with the same scale and direction each year, such as: seasons, holidays, etc., the working days number different from one month to another and the calendar effect (Orthodox Easter, leap year and other national holidays) as well as to the identification and correction of outliers (occasional, transitional or permanent changes in level) and the interpolation of missing values. The quarterly national accounts of Romania present, in general, strong seasonality, while the working days number and the calendar do not have a significant effect. Due to this consideration, adjustment methods application is not necessary for these two components. The seasonally adjusted series was obtained by removing the seasonal effect from the unadjusted series, by means of correction coefficients, established depending on the regression model used (additive or multiplicative). The additive or the multiplicative model used for regression is automatically identified by Demetra, depending on the nature of series subject to adjustments. The seasonally adjusted GDP is obtained through the direct method, therefore entailing statistical discrepancies between the GDP and the sum of its components seasonally adjusted in an independent manner. The seasonally adjusted series are quarterly re-estimated due to the change in adopted models, in the number of regression factors used, in the unadjusted series and in the number of available observations. Beginning with Q I 2012, the policy related to Quarterly Gross Domestic Product estimation and dissemination was changed, by introducing a third estimate called provisional data (2) that is to be published, according to the Press release calendar posted on INS web-site, within 95 days after the end of the reference quarter. The main objectives of this revision relate to: the integration of statistical, financial-banking and administrative information which became available or were rectified after the publication of first provisional estimates, within 65 days after the end of the reference quarter; ensuring the consistency between the aggregates on which quarterly GDP is based and the aggregates from quarterly accounts of institutional sectors, particularly those of Public administration sector, the dissemination deadline being 90 days after the end of the reference quarter. The additional information used for the estimation of Gross Domestic Product provisional data (2) refers to: 1 GDP seasonally adjusted series, is used in view to compare the reference quarter with the previous quarter, while the GDP unadjusted series is preponderantly used for the comparison with the corresponding period of previous year. At the same time, in Eurostat view, entering/leaving the economic recession period is appreciated according to the evolution of GDP seasonally adjusted series, based on the growth or fall recorded during two consecutive quarters. 8
rectified statistical data for the last month of the quarter, regarding: industrial production indices, industrial production price indices, construction works indices, construction cost indices, indices of turnover volume for retail, excepting motor-vehicles and motorcycles, indices of turnover volume for wholesale and retail, maintenance and repairs of motorvehicles and motorcycles, value indices of turnover for wholesale, indices of turnover volume for market services rendered to population, value indices of turnover for market services mainly rendered to enterprises; additional statistical data on passengers and freight transport; administrative data on budgetary execution; rectified data the Balance of external payments. The data on quarterly GDP unadjusted and seasonally adjusted series for the period Q1 2000 Q1 2012 are published on the INS website: www.insse.ro section Products and services Statistical data Quarterly GDP. The Gross Domestic Product for Q 2 2013 Flash estimates is to be published by means of a press release, according to the schedule presented on the INS website, on August 14, 2013. Comparative data with the other European Union Member States could be obtained from the Eurostat press release to be published on July 4, 2013 and which could be read by accessing the following link: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/. 9