Professional Indemnity Forum 2009 An Actuary's Analysis of the PI Market 7 P w C
Section one Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of Solvency II Top Tips How to get things right
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Profitability Capital Risks Slide 3
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of underwriting cycle on profitability Market pricing cycle clearly impacting UK Professional Indemnity insurance 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 ULR (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Underwriting year UK Prof essional Indemnit y - Gross of reinsurance and brokerage Source: 2009 FSA return data Slide 4
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Observed rate change Prices have dropped approximately 20% over 2004-2008 Annual rate change 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0 % 10.0 % 5.0% 0.0% 2001 to 2002 2002 to 2003 2003 to 2004 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007 2007 to 2008 UWY 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price Index (exc inflation) 100 125 154 157 145 132 121 126 Price Index (inc inflation) 124 154 184 182 164 144 126 125-5.0% -10.0% -15.0% UK Professional Indemnity Rate Change Source: PwC estimates Slide 5
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of underwriting cycle and observed rate change There is a clear connection between observed ULR s and rate changes ULR (%) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Underwriting year UK Prof essional Indemnity - Gross of reinsurance and brokerage Relative exposure per prem (2001 base) 0.4 Source: ULR s - 2009 FSA return data Relative exposure PwC estimates Slide 6
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Observed Claims Inflation Extremely subjective difficult to assess either prospectively or retrospectively. An implied claims inflation can be derived considering the following relationship: ULR x+ 1 = ULR x 1+ c 1+ r x x+ 1 x x+ 1 c x x+ ULR x+ 1 1 = ( 1+ rx x+ 1) 1 ULRx UWY (x) 2006 2007 ULRx + 1 ULR x 108% 107% rx x +1 c x x + 1-9.3% -2.1% -8.5% -2.3% Reasons for the implied negative claims inflation over 2006 2007? Slide 7
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Observed Claims Inflation 100.00 90.00 UWY (x) 2006 2007 ULRx + 1 ULR x 108% 107% rx x+1 c x x+ 1-9.3% -8.5% -2.1% -2.3% 80.00 70.00 60.00 ULR (%) 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2005 UWY Rate change Claim inf 2006 UWY Rate change Claim inf 2007 UWY Slide 8
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of recent market turmoil Potential impact on both future years and historical underwriting years 100.0 90.0 Stability Turmoil 80.0 70.0 ULR (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Underwriting year Slide 9
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of recent market turmoil - Scenario Gross ULR s could easily hit 90% by 2010. All else being equal Assumes 2006 2010 are Non-Event years UWY Rate Change Claims inflation 2006-9.3% 5% 2007-8.5% 5% 2008 4.1% 5% 2009 & 2010 0% 5% 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 ULR (%) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Underwriting year Slide 10
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Key risks and uncertainties - Identification Risk / uncertainty Property Crash Economic Recession Claims Inflation Financial Crisis Market Pricing Cycle Rate Change Profitability Lower Investment Returns Slide 11
Profitability Stability and Turmoil Key risks and uncertainties Measurement and management Risk / uncertainty Measurement Management Property Crash Economic Recession Financial Crisis Market Pricing Cycle Lower Investment Returns Slide 12
Section two Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of Solvency II Top Tips How to get things right
Impact of Solvency II Solvency II requires insurers to implement and embed an integrated risk management framework ( RMF ) Profitability Capital Risks Slide 14
Impact of Solvency II The PwC ERM Framework 1 Placing a risk dimension at the heart of the organisation. Risk 2 Risk appetite clearly articulated reflecting the group s risk carrying is core consideration when setting strategy, formulating 1 capacity, business strategy and financial goals. Processes and business plans, managing performance and rewarding Risk procedures in place to manage risk on an enterprise wide basis management success Strategy within defined (hard and soft) boundaries without stifling day to day operations 3 5 7 9 Identification and assessment of all (current and emerging / desired and undesired) risk faced by the organisation. Robust processes in place to aggregate and prioritise risks on an enterprise wide basis Governance structure ( three lines of defence model emerging as industry norm). Senior management accountability and responsibility for top tier risks. Clear risk management policies and procedures for managing all material risks Internal risk and capital models at the heart of the ERM framework. Models meet highest quality standards, appropriately calibrated ( real time ) and fully tested and documented. Models subjected to independent scrutiny and validation Required level of MI to support ERM framework. MI appropriately tailored to roles, responsibilities and authority levels. 6 5 7 Risk appetite Risk profile External communication and stakeholder management Governance, organisation and policies Risk and capital assessment (including internal models) 8 People and reward 9 Management 10 information 4 3 2 4 ERM focused external communications strategy centred around actively managing stakeholders (policy holders, regulators (group and local legal entity), rating agencies, debt and equity investors, etc) in order to yield shareholder value added and capture wider business benefits 6 Technology and infrastructure Business performance measured on a risk adjusted basis. Capital allocated to OEs / transaction opportunities based on risk : reward trade off. Risk reflected in factory gate product design and pricing and post sale portfolio management. Capital managed to optimise R.O.R.A.C. but cognisant of stress scenarios 8 People behaviour aligned with group risk, capital and performance strategy / business plans through balanced score cards, MBOs and incentive and reward schemes. Required level of skill, experience and knowledge exhibited by majority of staff 10 Core technology to support fully integrated ERM approach. Focus on organisational span, data quality and automated processing Business strategy Business management Business platform Slide 15
6 5 7 Risk Strategy Risk appetite Risk profile External communication and stakeholder management Governance, organisation and policies Risk and capital assessment (including internal models) People and reward Management information 8 9 10 4 3 2 1 2 4 6 Technology and infrastructure 8 10 Impact of Solvency II The PwC ERM Framework Professional Indemnity Section Area Examples Business strategy Risk Strategy Risk Appetite Risk Profile Write long tail / SME business Lose no more than one years average earnings 10% Solicitor s vs. 15% Appetite Business management Risk & Capital assessment (including internal models) Professional Indemnity Underwriters to sign off key assumptions Business platform People and Reward Management Information Bonus claw back (or deferred) for underwriters of long tail business Key Performance indicators Technology and Infrastructure Data Warehouse Slide 16
Section three Profitability Stability and Turmoil Impact of Solvency II Top Tips How to get things right
Top Tips Need to consider all aspects of the business to get things right e.g. capital costs, risk aggregation, pricing and reserving Profitability Risk Aggregation Cost Of Capital Capital Pricing & Reserving Risks Slide 18
Top Tips Top Tips Reserving & Pricing Cyclical monitoring and planning crucial in times of stability and more so in turmoil Monitoring Reserving Pricing Planning Slide 19
Top Tips Top Tips Risk Aggregation (Catastrophes) Professional Indemnity yet to be impacted by a Catastrophe. Significant analysis and estimation of catastrophes exists for a number of insurance lines. What allowance is made for catastrophes when pricing Professional Indemnity insurance? Discussion raised during PIF 2006 - Will action only be taken when it s too late? When pricing, what goes wrong? What allowance is made for catastrophes? 120 100 80 60 12%?? 40 68% 20 0 Premium Attritional Large Cat Slide 20
Top Tips Top Tips Aggregations of risk (Sideways cover) Same issues remain from PIF July 2006 what has been done? PI market environment Issues Cost Premium rate Allowing for sideways cover. PI standard contracts currently leave insurers open to many claims from one source. IFA mis-selling No aggregate policy limits? RI aggregation clauses Competition / substitutes 2m limit 1m limit e.g. solicitors 1m limit n * 1m limit.. Cost / value? Slide 21
Top Tips Top Tips Cost of Capital Year one (Premium charge) 12 Net Earned Premium Premium Capital charge* 10 10.0 8 Amount ( m) 6 5.6 4 3.7 2 0 Slide 22
Top Tips Top Tips Cost of Capital Year one (Premium charge) 12 10 Net Earned Premium 10.0 Premium Capital charge (BBB Rated)* 8 Amount ( m) 6 5.6 4 3.7 2 0 *Capital Charges Based on A.M Best BCAR calculation tool excluding impact of diversification. For diversified portfolios a reduction of 10% could be considered appropriate Capital charges above based on a BBB rating Slide 23
Top Tips Top Tips Cost of Capital Year one (Premium charge) 12 Net Earned Premium Premium Capital charge (BBB Rated)* Premium Capital charge (A Rated)* 10 10.0 8 Amount ( m) 6 5.6 4 3.7 2 0 *Capital Charges Based on A.M Best BCAR calculation tool excluding impact of diversification. For diversified portfolios a reduction of 10% could be considered appropriate Capital charge for A rating approximately 150% higher than BBB rating Slide 24
Top Tips Top Tips Cost of Capital Year one (Premium charge) 12 Net Earned Premium Premium Capital charge (BBB Rated)* Premium Capital charge (A Rated)* 10 10.0 8 Amount ( m) 6 5.6 4 3.7 2 0 *Capital Charges Based on A.M Best BCAR calculation tool excluding impact of diversification. For diversified portfolios a reduction of 10% could be considered appropriate Managing for the upturn Year one cost of capital for A rating @ 9% p.a. = 5.6m * 9% = 0.5m E.g. Impact of delay between earning and payment of premium? Slide 25
Top Tips Top Tips Cost of Capital Year two (reserve charge) 12 Reserves at year end (10% paid @ 80% ULR) Reserve Capital charge (BBB Rated)* Reserve Capital charge (A Rated)* 10 8 7.2 Amount ( m) 6 4.5 4 3.0 2 0 *Capital Charges Based on A.M Best BCAR calculation tool excluding impact of diversification. For diversified portfolios a reduction of 10% could be considered appropriate Continued capital charges Year two cost of rating @ 9% p.a. = 4.5m * 9% = 0.4m E.g. Impact of reserve deterioration? Slide 26
Top Tips - Summary The current global focus on risk management means we have to consider both the impact and interactions of profitability, capital and risk. The current state of the Professional Indemnity Insurance market means it is vital to get these things right now. Consideration needs to be given to the realistic possibility of significant aggregation of risks in the future (e.g. Professional Indemnity catastrophes and sideways cover). Slide 27
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