Jammu and Kashmir Bank

Similar documents
Jammu and Kashmir Bank

Punjab National Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,115 Target Price `1,259. 3QFY2011 Result Update Banking.

Allahabad Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `142 Target Price `152. 2QFY2013 Result Update Banking. Investment Period 12 months

Andhra Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `110 Target Price - 4QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period -

HDFC Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `511 Target Price - 1QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period - Key financials

Bank of Maharashtra ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `48 Target Price `55. 4QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period 12 Months

HDFC Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,348 Target Price `2,671. 4QFY2011 Result Update Banking. Key financials

Union Bank of India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `393 Target Price - 2QFY2011 Result Update Banking. Investment Period -

Bank of Maharashtra NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `47 Target Price - 1QFY2013 Result Update Banking. Investment Period - Key financials

Syndicate Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `81 Target Price - 2QFY2014 Result Update Banking. Investment Period -

HDFC Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `485 Target Price - 3QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period -

Indian Overseas Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `137 `155. 1QFY2012 Result Update Banking

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Indian Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `178 Target Price - 2QFY2013 Result Update Banking. Investment Period - Key financials (Standalone)

Punjab National Bank NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `134 Target Price - 2QFY2016 Result Update Banking November 13, Investment Period -

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `279 `348. 2QFY2016 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

HFC NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `678 Target Price - 1QFY2013 Result Update HFC. Investment Period - Key financials

Allahabad Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `155 Target Price `166. 4QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period 12 months

Punjab National Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,066 Target Price `1,326. 4QFY2011 Result Update Banking. Key financials

IDBI Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `105 Target Price `117. 4QFY2012 Result Update Banking. Investment Period 12 months

State Bank of India BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,414 Target Price `2,842. 4QFY2011 Result Update Banking. Key financials

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `869 Target Price `1,183. 4QFY2012 Result Update Banking

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `928 Target Price `1,169. 1QFY2013 Result Update Banking. Investment Period 12 Months

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `328 `416. 3QFY2018 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,152 Target Price `1,352. 4QFY2013 Result Update Banking

Federal Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. Target Price. 1QFY2018 Result Update Banking. Stock Info Sector

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `343 `460. Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Exhibit 1: Key Financials

HDFC Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,145 Target Price `2,500. Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

HDFC Bank BUY. Operating performance strong; improved NIM. CMP `2,268 Target Price `2,500. Q4FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart

HDFC Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,965 Target Price `2,350. Q2FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Exhibit 1: Key Financials

ICICI Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `307 `411. 1QFY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)

LIC Housing Finance BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `532 `630. 3QFY2017 Result Update HFC. 3-Year Daily Price Chart

Axis Bank BUY. CMP Target Price `620 `750. Update Bank. Earnings to normalize with stabilizing credit costs. 3-year price chart.

Dewan Housing Finance

RBL Bank BUY. CMP Target Price `573 `690. Quick take BANK. January 7, year price chart

Banking - 3QFY2013 Result Review

Goodyear India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `326 `374. 1QCY2012 Result Update Tyres. Key financials

GAIL India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `363 Target Price - 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Investment Period -

Yes Bank BUY. CMP Target Price `380 `435. Initiating Coverage Banking. Growth affirmed. 3-year price chart. Key Financials (Standalone)

MRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `9,407 Target Price `11,343. Company Update Automobile. Key financials

KEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `433 `508. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.

KEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. Target Price. 3QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart. Key Financials

Amber Enterprises India Ltd

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Graphite India BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `88 `109. 1QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods

Ambuja Cements NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `184 Target Price - 2QCY2012 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone)

Graphite India BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `93 Target Price `124. 4QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods. Investment Period 12 Months

ACC NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,261 Target Price - 4QCY2012 Result Update Cement. Quarterly results (Standalone) Investment Period -

SpiceJet BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `32 Target Price `43. 1QFY2013 Result Update Airlines. Investment Period 12 Months.

Ambuja Cements NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `155 Target Price - 1QCY2011 Result Update Cement. Investment Period - Key financials (Standalone)

CCL Products BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `278 `360. 3QFY2018 Result Update Coffee. Historical share price chart.

Blue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `754 `867. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.

Garware Wall Ropes ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `550 Target Price `618. 2QFY2017 Result Update Textile. Investment Period 12 months

Century Plyboards Ltd

TVS Motor Company BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `39 `45. 2QFY2013 Result Update Automobile. Quarterly highlights (Standalone)

Hindustan Media Ventures

Cairn India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `338 `382. 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Quarterly highlights (Consolidated)

ITC ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `257 Target Price `284. 3QFY2017 Result Update FMCG. Investment Period 12 Months

Inox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `242 `286. 4QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart

Matrimony.com Ltd BUY. Performance Update. Target Price `1,016. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.

GMM Pfaudler Limited BUY. Performance Update CMP. `945 Target Price ` QFY2019 Result Update Industrial Machinery. Investment Period 12 Months

Maruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `9,315 Target Price `10,820. 1QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart

Parag Milk Foods BUY. Performance Update CMP. `256 Target Price `330. 2QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products. Investment Period 12 Months

Parag Milk Foods BUY. Performance Update CMP. `324 Target Price `410. 1QFY2019 Result Update Dairy Products. Investment Period 12 Months

Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care

Reliance Communication

BGR Energy Systems NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `235 Target Price - 3QFY2013 Result Update Capital Goods. Investment Period -

Hero MotoCorp NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,245 Target Price - 4QFY2012 Result Update Automobile. Investment Period - Key financials

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `237 Target Price - 1QFY2018 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Alembic BUY. Performance Highlights. Target Price. 1QFY2011 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Investment Period 12 months

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Prakash Industries BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `81 `124. 3QFY2011 Result Update Steel

Blue Star Ltd BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `703 `867. 1QFY2019 Result Update Cons. Durable. 3-year price chart.

SUN TV Network NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `297 Target Price - 1QFY2013 Result Update Media. Investment Period -

Bata India BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `842. 1QFY2019 Result Update Footwear. Historical share price chart.

TV Today Network BUY. Performance Update CMP. `323 Target Price `498. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Investment Period 12 Months

Asian Granito BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `270 Target Price `351. Outlook and valuation. 3QFY2017 Result Update Ceramics

Rallis India SELL. Performance Highlights. `231 Target Price 189 CMP. 2QFY2018 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period 12 months

Tech Mahindra ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `659 `693. 3QFY2012 Result Update IT. Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Quick take. Ruchira Papers Ltd. BUY. Creating value through paper. Target Price. Investment Period 12 Months. 3 year daily price chart.

Apollo Tyres BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `71 `82. 4QFY2011Result Update Tyre. Key financials (Consolidated)

Maruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `6,705 Target Price `8,552. 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `242 Target Price - 4QFY2017 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Music Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `293 `475. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Media

Coal India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `338 Target Price `380. Outlook and valuation. 2QFY2016 Result Update Mining

REPCO Home Finance BUY. Reaping the benefits of serving the underserved. CMP Target Price `642 `825. Initiating Coverage HFC.

Quick take. Aditya Birla Nuvo BUY. Deep Value. Valuation Methodology. Exhibit 1: ABNL s Business Structure

HT Media ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `102 Target Price `113. 3QFY2013 Result Update Media. Investment Period 12 months

Bata India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `1,008 Target Price `1,243. 2QFY2019 Result Update Footwear. Historical share price chart.

Tech Mahindra ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `955 Target Price `1,070. 2QFY2013 Result Update IT. Investment Period 12 months

Tata Steel NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `226 Target Price - 2QFY2016 Result Update Steel. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

Music Broadcast BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `329 `475. 2QFY2019 Result Update Media. Historical share price chart.

Goodyear India BUY. Company Update. CMP Target Price `515 `631. Company Update Tyres. 3-year Daily Price Chart. Key Financials

JK Lakshmi Cement BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `63 Target Price `79. 4QFY2012 Result Update Cement. Investment Period 12 Months

Inox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `390 `505. 2QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)

Cadila Healthcare ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP 860 Target Price QFY2013 Result Update Pharmaceutical. Key financials (Consolidated)

Rallis India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `215 Target Price - 3QFY2017 Result Update Agrichemical. Investment Period - 3-year price chart

MRF BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `40,703 Target Price `47,548. 1QSY2015 Result Update Tyre

Transcription:

1QFY2012 Result Update Banking August 9, 2011 Jammu and Kashmir Bank Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) NII 437 416 5.2 366 19.5 Pre-Prov. Profit 316 296 6.9 288 9.7 PAT 182 139 31.6 145 25.4 For 1QFY2012, J&K Bank registered healthy net profit growth of 25.4% yoy (up by strong 31.6% qoq) to `182cr, above our estimates due to lower provisioning expenses than built in by us. Stable asset quality and marginal improvement in reported NIM were the key highlights of the results. We recommend Neutral on the stock. Asset quality remains stable; Margin shows improvement of 10bp: The bank s loan book grew marginally by 0.8% qoq to `26,403cr; however, deposits declined by 3.6% qoq to `43,078cr. Saving deposits increased by strong 3.7% qoq; however, current deposits declined by 21.7% sequentially, leading to a marginal 9bp qoq decline in CASA ratio to 40.4%. Cost of deposits for the bank only increased by 2bp qoq to 5.4%, while yield on advances increased by 27bp qoq to 11.4%, leading to a sequential rise of 10bp in reported NIM to 3.8%. During the quarter, fee income declined by 19.1% qoq to `42cr, while treasury income declined by 55.4% qoq to `10cr. For 1QFY2012, the bank managed to maintain its asset quality with gross NPAs rising marginally by 1.8% qoq to `528cr. Net NPAs, however, rose by 9.6% qoq to `58cr in 1QFY2011. NPA coverage ratio continued to be strong at 92.5% for 1QFY2012 (92.7% in 4QFY2011). According to management, the bank has already switched over all accounts to system-based NPA recognition. Outlook and valuation: The stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV vis-à-vis its historic range of 0.8 1.4x and five-year median of 1.02x. Also, immediate levers in the form of increased CD ratio from the current low 61.3% into higher yielding advances are likely to provide near-term higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative to other mid-size banks. Further, with 40.4% CASA ratio, the bank is more favourably placed than its peers to handle NIM pressures from high deposit rates. However, the stock has already outperformed other mid-size PSU banks significantly in the last six months and in relative terms we believe the premium at which it is trading to other mid-size PSU banks adequately reflects the positive outlook for the bank. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E NII 1,119 1,544 1,710 1,804 % chg 11.9 37.9 10.8 5.5 Net Profit 512 615 697 709 % chg 25.0 20.1 13.4 1.6 NIM (%) 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.1 EPS (`) 105.7 126.9 143.8 146.2 P/E (x) 8.0 6.6 5.8 5.8 P/ABV (x) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 RoA (%) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 RoE (%) 18.2 19.0 18.6 16.5 NEUTRAL CMP `841 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Sector Banking Market Cap (` cr) 4,075 Beta 0.6 52 Week High / Low 938/695 Avg. Daily Volume 10,877 Face Value (`) 10 BSE Sensex 16,858 Nifty 5,073 Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) JKBK.BO J&KBK@IN Promoters 53.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 3.7 FII / NRIs / OCBs 24.1 Indian Public / Others 19.1 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (9.0) (7.8) 11.1 J&K Bank 8.4 5.1 63.7 Vaibhav Agrawal 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com Shrinivas Bhutda 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com Varun Varma 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2012 performance Particulars (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) Interest earned 1,056 1,014 4.1 866 22.0 - on Advances / Bills 751 718 4.5 626 19.9 - on investments 299 290 3.2 236 26.6 - on balance with RBI & others 6 5 11.8 3 79.9 Interest Expended 619 598 3.4 500 23.8 Net Interest Income 437 416 5.2 366 19.5 Other income 67 119 (43.7) 94 (28.5) Other income excl. treasury 57 96 (40.9) 60 (5.3) - Fee Income 42 51 (19.1) 42 (0.6) - Treasury Income 10 23 (55.4) 34 (69.9) - Others 15 45 (65.9) 18 (16.1) Operating income 504 535 (5.7) 459 9.7 Operating expenses 188 239 (21.4) 171 9.7 - Employee expenses 128 167 (23.6) 120 6.7 - Other Opex 60 72 (16.0) 51 16.7 Pre-provision Profit 316 296 6.9 288 9.7 Provisions & Contingencies 44 76 (41.2) 70 (36.5) - Provisions for NPAs 25 32 (21.9) 44 (43.2) - Provisions for Investments 4 20 (81.5) 26 (85.8) - Other Provisions 16 24 (33.5) 0 - PBT 272 220 23.4 218 24.6 Provision for Tax 90 82 9.6 73 23.0 PAT 182 139 31.6 145 25.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 33.0 37.1 (416)bp 33.4 (44)bp Exhibit 2: 1QFY2012 Actual vs. Angel estimates Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%) Net interest income 437 424 3.0 Non-interest income 67 80 (16.3) Operating income 504 505 (0.1) Operating expenses 188 188 0.0 Pre-prov. profit 316 317 (0.1) Provisions & cont. 44 77 (42.4) PBT 272 240 13.5 Prov. for taxes 90 78 15.3 PAT 182 162 12.6 August 9, 2011 2

Exhibit 3: 1QFY2012 performance Particulars (` cr) 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) Advances (` cr) 26,403 26,194 0.8 23,035 14.6 Deposits (` cr) 43,078 44,676 (3.6) 37,629 14.5 Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 61.3 58.6 266bp 61.2 8bp Current deposits (` cr) 4,198 5,360 (21.7) 3,801 10.4 Saving deposits (` cr) 13,204 12,727 3.7 10,437 26.5 CASA deposits (` cr) 17,401 18,087 (3.8) 14,239 22.2 CASA ratio (%) 40.4 40.5 (9)bp 37.8 256bp CAR (%) 14.4 13.7 65bp 16.1 (177)bp Tier 1 CAR (%) 11.8 11.3 50bp 13.1 (128)bp Profitability Ratios (%) Cost of deposits 5.4 5.4 2bp 5.1 28bp Yield on advances 11.4 11.2 27bp 10.9 56bp Yield on investments 6.3 6.3 3bp 6.1 18bp Reported NIM 3.8 3.7 10bp 3.7 12bp Cost-to-income ratio 37.3 44.7 (741)bp 37.3 (0)bp Asset quality Gross NPAs (` cr) 528 519 1.8 451 17.2 Gross NPAs (%) 2.0 2.0 2bp 1.9 5bp Net NPAs (` cr) 58 53 9.6 8 624.8 Net NPAs (%) 0.2 0.2 2bp 0.0 19bp Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 92.5 92.7 (25)bp 98.7 (626)bp Slippage ratio (%) - 2.0 (203)bp 0.5 (50)bp NPA to avg. assets (%) 0.2 0.3 (6)bp 0.4 (21)bp Sequential contraction in business; CASA ratio stable at above 40% The bank s loan book grew marginally by 0.8% qoq to `26,403cr; however, deposits declined by 3.6% qoq to `43,078cr. Saving deposits increased by strong 3.7% qoq; however, current deposits declined by 21.7% sequentially, leading to a marginal 9bp qoq decline in CASA ratio to 40.4%. The bank s outstanding loan book s concentration within the J&K state is ~40%, while that outside the state is ~60%. As margins are higher within the state due to lower cost of deposits on account of higher proportion of CASA deposits, management would like ~45% of loan portfolio concentrated within the J&K state by the end of FY2012. August 9, 2011 3

Exhibit 4: Deposits growth negative for 1QFY2012 Exhibit 5: CASA ratio stable at above 40% levels 15.0 10.0 5.0 - (5.0) Adv. qoq chg (%) Dep. qoq chg (%) CDR (%, RHS) 62.0 61.2 61.3 58.4 58.6 (0.1) 1.1 0.6 5.5 9.4 3.0 3.3 9.3 0.8 (3.6) 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 CASA ratio (%) CASA growth (% yoy, RHS)) 35.6 25.3 19.4 16.8 22.2 37.8 41.1 39.6 40.5 40.4 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Out of the total deposits, ~65% is contributed by the state of J&K. Of this 65%, ~55% of the deposits comprise CASA deposits. The pace of CASA deposits accretion in the state is expected to remain healthy, with the bank planning to further strengthen its presence by opening 60 70 branches in the state in FY2012. Marginal improvement in NIM for 1QFY2012 Cost of deposits for the bank only increased by 2bp qoq to 5.4%, while yield on advances increased by 27bp qoq to 11.4%, leading to a sequential rise of 10bp in reported NIM to 3.8%. Exhibit 6: Higher yield on advances for 1QFY12... (%) Exhibit 7:...leads to marginal improvement in NIM (%) 11.60 11.20 10.80 10.86 11.00 10.71 11.15 11.42 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.70 3.66 3.70 3.72 3.82 10.40 3.20 10.00 3.00 Weak performance sequentially on other income front During the quarter, fee income declined by 19.1% qoq to `42cr, while treasury income declined by 55.4% qoq to `10cr. Consequently, total other income declined by 43.7% qoq (down 28.5% yoy) to `67cr. We expect fee income to grow by 11.9% and 16.2% in FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. August 9, 2011 4

Asset quality remains stable For 1QFY2012, the bank managed to maintain its asset quality with gross NPAs rising marginally by 1.8% qoq to `528cr. Net NPAs, however, rose by 9.6% qoq to `58cr in 1QFY2011. NPA coverage ratio continued to be strong at 92.5% for 1QFY2012 (92.7% in 4QFY2011). The bank s cumulative restructured book as of 1QFY2012 stands at `2,166cr (~`600cr added during FY2011), from which ~`129cr has slipped into NPAs. The outstanding restructured book as of 1QFY2011 stands at `2,035cr According to management, the bank has already switched over all accounts to system-based NPA recognition. The bank s exposure to the power sector is ~13% of its loan book, with no exposure to any SEBs. We estimate slippage ratio to be 1.3% and 1.6% for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. Exhibit 8: Best-in-class asset quality Exhibit 9: Trend in NPA provision-to-avg. assets 2.5 2.0 Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS) 98.7 98.4 95.5 100.0 92.7 92.5 (%) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.0 90.0 80.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.9 0.0 2.2 0.1 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 2.0 0.2 0.1-70.0 0.0 Employee costs decline qoq Operating expenses decreased by 21.4% qoq to `188cr on the back of a 23.6% qoq decline in employee costs to `128cr due to a high base in 4QFY2011 owing to pension costs related to retired employees. Consequently, the cost-to-income ratio improved to 37.3% in 1QFY2012 from 44.7% in 4QFY2011. Investment arguments Well-protected loan book Structurally, the bank's credit mix has only a small portion directly exposed to credit risks from political disturbances in J&K state. For instance, 59.0% of the bank's loan book as of FY2011 is outside the state of J&K, of which 57.5% is towards corporates. The state government repaid `2,300cr during 4QFY2011, which is likely to be deployed in high-rated corporates outside J&K. Only ~17% of the total loans are in the relatively sensitive Kashmir valley region, large portion of which is towards the healthy horticulture and trade sectors, which see minimal disruption even during strikes due to essential linkages with rest of the country. August 9, 2011 5

Robust asset quality Over the years, the bank has maintained robust asset quality, with the best-in-industry provision coverage ratio (92.5% as of 1QFY2012). Slippages were comfortable at 1.3% for 1QFY2012 compared to 2.0% for 4QFY2011, and are lower compared to most other PSU banks. We expect asset quality to sustain at these levels and see slippages at 1.3% and 1.6% for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. Strong branch network and legacy Dominant market share The bank has ~400 branches in J&K. Due to its strong branch network and legacy of banking relationships, the bank has a dominant 70% market share in deposits in J&K. CASA deposits constituted strong 47.8% of incremental deposits growth from FY2004 11. This strong base of low-cost deposits is expected to sustain relatively higher NIM of 3.1 3.3% among mid-size banks. Outlook and valuation The stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV vis-à-vis its historic range of 0.8 1.4x and five-year median of 1.02x. We have a positive view on the bank s business considering its strong deposit mix, dominant regional market share and healthy track record in asset quality. We believe this provides sufficient margin of safety from the risks of political disturbances in J&K, especially in light of the bank's steady performance even during past crises. Even taking into account the inherently lower-than-national average growth (in GDP, deposits and credit) in J&K, at just 0.9x FY2013E P/ABV and with sustainable RoEs of at least 16%, the stock seems adequately priced. Also, immediate levers in the form of increased CD ratio from the current low 61.3% into higher yielding advances are likely to provide near-term higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative to other mid-size banks. Further, with 40.4% CASA ratio, the bank is more favourably placed than its peers to handle NIM pressures from high deposit rates. However, the stock has already outperformed other mid-size PSU banks significantly in the last six months and in relative terms we believe the premium at which it is trading to other mid-size PSU banks adequately reflects the positive outlook for the bank. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. August 9, 2011 6

Exhibit 10: Key assumptions Particulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 Credit growth 19.0 19.0 17.0 19.0 Deposit growth 13.0 13.0 10.0 11.0 CASA ratio 39.7 38.9 40.8 40.7 NIMs 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.1 Other income growth (0.3) 13.6 (11.1) 16.6 Growth in staff expenses - 15.0 2.5 13.0 Growth in other expenses 17.0 15.0 17.0 13.0 Slippages 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 Coverage ratio 92.5 85.0 91.0 85.0 Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investment) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Source: Angel Research Exhibit 11: Change in estimates Particulars (` cr) Earlier estimates FY2012 Revised estimates Var. (%) Earlier estimates FY2013 Revised estimates Var. (%) NII 1,676 1,710 2.0 1,756 1,804 2.7 Non-interest income 364 324 (10.8) 413 378 (8.5) Operating income 2,040 2,034 (0.3) 2,169 2,182 0.6 Operating expenses 799 812 1.6 919 918 (0.1) Pre-prov. profit 1,241 1,222 (1.5) 1,250 1,265 1.1 Provisions & cont. 227 190 (16.4) 173 216 24.9 PBT 1,014 1,032 1.8 1,078 1,049 (2.7) Prov. for taxes 329 335 1.8 350 340 (2.7) PAT 685 697 1.8 728 709 (2.7) Source: Angel Research Exhibit 12: P/ABV band Price (`) 0.5x 0.75x 1x 1.25x 1.5x 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research August 9, 2011 7

Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary Company Reco. CMP (`) Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) FY2013E P/ABV (x) FY2013E Tgt P/ABV (x) FY2013E P/E (x) FY2011E-13E EPS CAGR (%) FY2013E RoA (%) FY2013E RoE (%) AxisBk Buy 1,211 1,648 36.1 1.9 2.7 10.0 20.9 1.5 21.0 FedBk Accumulate 384 441 14.9 1.0 1.2 7.9 19.0 1.2 13.9 HDFCBk Accumulate 466 519 11.4 3.1 3.5 16.2 30.5 1.7 20.9 ICICIBk* Buy 941 1,281 36.1 1.7 2.3 13.3 25.8 1.5 16.0 SIB Buy 21 24 16.1 1.1 1.3 6.5 11.6 0.9 17.2 YesBk Buy 292 353 20.7 1.9 2.3 9.8 19.1 1.2 20.6 AllBk Neutral 191 - - 0.9-5.4 9.2 0.9 17.8 AndhBk Neutral 132 - - 0.9-5.9 (0.6) 0.9 15.9 BOB Buy 854 1,018 19.2 1.2 1.4 6.4 10.8 1.1 19.6 BOI Accumulate 350 397 13.4 1.0 1.1 5.5 18.7 0.8 18.0 BOM Buy 52 61 18.3 0.7 0.8 4.9 30.8 0.6 14.8 CanBk Accumulate 434 490 13.1 0.8 1.0 5.0 (2.4) 0.9 17.2 CentBk Neutral 109 - - 0.8-5.3 (14.0) 0.5 14.4 CorpBk Buy 460 576 25.3 0.7 0.9 4.3 6.1 0.9 17.9 DenaBk Neutral 83 - - 0.6-3.9 7.0 0.8 16.5 IDBI # Neutral 118 - - 0.7-5.5 13.0 0.7 14.3 IndBk Accumulate 213 232 9.0 0.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.2 17.8 IOB Accumulate 128 143 11.3 0.8 0.9 4.9 22.4 0.7 16.4 J&KBk Neutral 841 - - 0.9-5.8 7.3 1.2 16.5 OBC Accumulate 333 372 11.5 0.8 0.9 5.6 7.5 0.9 14.4 PNB Accumulate 1,116 1,217 9.1 1.3 1.4 6.9 7.4 1.0 20.0 SBI* Buy 2,231 2,776 24.5 1.7 2.1 8.2 44.2 1.1 22.6 SynBk Buy 111 131 18.5 0.8 0.9 5.1 8.6 0.6 15.6 UcoBk Neutral 77 - - 1.0-4.6 16.0 0.6 17.0 UnionBk Accumulate 279 313 12.3 1.0 1.2 5.9 20.0 0.8 17.9 UtdBk Buy 87 103 18.3 0.7 0.9 5.1 13.2 0.6 14.1 VijBk Neutral 60 - - 0.8-6.4 61.9 0.4 11.7 ; Note:*Target multiples=sotp Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF August 9, 2011 8

Income statement Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Net Interest Income 768 810 1,000 1,119 1,544 1,710 1,804 - YoY Growth (%) 15.7 5.5 23.4 11.9 37.9 10.8 5.5 Other Income 183 263 261 416 365 324 378 - YoY Growth (%) 64.8 44.1 (0.7) 59.2 (12.4) (11.1) 16.6 Operating Income 951 1,074 1,262 1,536 1,908 2,034 2,182 - YoY Growth (%) 22.7 13.0 17.5 21.7 24.3 6.6 7.3 Operating Expenses 372 404 471 577 759 812 918 - YoY Growth (%) 7.9 8.4 16.7 22.6 31.4 7.0 13.0 Pre - Provision Profit 578 670 791 958 1,149 1,222 1,265 - YoY Growth (%) 34.7 15.9 18.0 21.2 20.0 6.3 3.5 Prov. & Cont. 163 94 159 167 215 190 216 - YoY Growth (%) (3.1) (42.2) 69.3 4.6 29.1 (11.8) 13.6 Profit Before Tax 415 576 631 792 934 1,032 1,049 - YoY Growth (%) 59.0 38.7 9.6 25.3 18.0 10.5 1.6 Prov. for Taxation 141 216 222 279 319 335 340 - as a % of PBT 33.9 37.5 35.1 35.3 34.2 32.4 32.4 PAT 274 360 410 512 615 697 709 - YoY Growth (%) 55.2 31.2 13.8 25.0 20.1 13.4 1.6 Balance sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Share Capital 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 Reserves & Surplus 1,960 2,260 2,574 2,962 3,430 3,964 4,507 Deposits 25,194 28,593 33,004 37,237 44,676 49,144 54,549 - Growth (%) 7.3 13.5 15.4 12.8 20.0 10.0 11.0 Borrowings 620 752 997 500 505 555 616 Tier 2 Capital - - - 600 600 660 733 Other Liab. & Prov. 823 1,102 1,070 1,199 1,249 1,188 1,217 Total Liabilities 28,647 32,756 37,693 42,547 50,508 55,559 61,670 Cash Balances 1,855 3,220 2,303 2,745 2,975 3,194 3,546 Bank Balances 1,759 1,217 2,972 1,870 574 1,111 1,233 Investments 7,392 8,758 10,736 13,956 19,696 19,443 19,144 Advances 17,080 18,883 20,930 23,057 26,194 30,647 36,469 - Growth (%) 17.9 10.6 10.8 10.2 13.6 17.0 19.0 Fixed Assets 183 192 199 204 394 420 452 Other Assets 377 486 552 715 676 744 826 Total Assets 28,647 32,756 37,693 42,547 50,508 55,559 61,670 - Growth (%) 8.3 14.3 15.1 12.9 18.7 10.0 11.0 August 9, 2011 9

Ratio analysis Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Profitability ratios (%) NIMs 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.1 Cost to Income Ratio 39.2 37.6 37.3 37.6 39.8 39.9 42.0 RoA 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 RoE 15.2 18.2 17.4 18.2 19.0 18.6 16.5 B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio 37.0 39.2 38.1 40.7 40.5 40.8 40.7 Credit/Deposit Ratio 67.8 66.0 63.4 61.9 58.6 62.4 66.9 CAR 13.2 12.8 14.5 15.9 13.7 14.3 14.6 - Tier I 12.6 12.1 13.8 12.8 11.3 11.9 12.2 Asset quality (%) Gross NPAs 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.7 Net NPAs 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 Slippages 1.9 1.3 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 NPA Prov./Avg. Assets 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Provision Coverage 61.4 58.0 48.6 86.1 89.7 91.0 85.0 Per Share Data (`) EPS 56.6 74.2 84.5 105.7 126.9 143.8 146.2 ABVPS 400.2 459.2 510.4 620.8 717.4 827.5 939.4 DPS 11.5 15.5 16.9 22.0 26.0 29.0 29.5 Valuation Ratios PER (x) 14.8 11.3 9.9 8.0 6.6 5.8 5.8 P/ABVPS (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 Dividend Yield 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 DuPont Analysis (%) NII 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.1 (-) Prov. Exp. 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Adj. NII 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 Treasury 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Int. Sens. Inc. 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.8 Other Inc. 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Op. Inc. 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 Opex 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 PBT 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 Taxes 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 RoA 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Leverage (x) 15.2 15.4 14.9 14.2 14.3 14.2 13.7 RoE 15.2 18.2 17.4 18.2 19.0 18.6 16.5 August 9, 2011 10

Research Team Tel: 022-39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Jammu & Kashmir Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) August 9, 2011 11