ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 7/29/07 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, July 31, 2007 Surge in Confidence Abates, But its Overall Trend is Up Last week s surge in consumer confidence abated this week, but its gradual advance from an early June low remains on course. Zagging where it last zigged, the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index now stands at -8 on its scale of +100 to -100 this week, after an unusual six-point gain to -5 last week. July was bouncy for the CCI, -5 to -11, but better than its -15 on June 3. The stock market s slide seems to have had little effect, while gas prices, more of a daily concern for most people, carry more weight. Gas dropped eight cents to $2.88 a gallon in this week s U.S. Department of Energy survey; it s 33 cents below its May 21 high. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since 2006 5 0-5 Average -10-15 -20 01/15/06 01/29/06 02/12/06 02/26/06 03/12/06 03/26/06 04/09/06 04/23/06 05/07/06 05/21/06 06/04/06 06/18/06 07/02/06 07/16/06 07/30/06 08/13/06 08/27/06 09/10/06 09/24/06 10/08/06 10/22/06 11/05/06 11/19/06 12/03/06 12/17/06 12/30/06 01/14/07 01/28/07 02/12/07 02/25/07 03/11/07 03/25/07 04/07/07 04/22/07 05/06/07 05/21/07 06/03/07 06/17/07 07/01/07 07/15/07 07/29/07 The index has averaged -6 for the year, enough if it holds through December to be its best year since 2001, when it averaged +4. That was down from +29 in go-go 2000.
INDEX The ABC/Post index is based on views of the buying climate, now rated positively by 38 percent of Americans; the national economy, 42 percent; and personal finances, higher as usual at 58 percent positive. The CCI s improvement since June has been in positive ratings of the buying climate and the economy overall, each up five points from June 3. Personal finances ratings, while higher overall, have remained flat in the last two month. ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week June 3 2007 avg. 21-yr. avg. National economy 42% 37 43 40 Buying climate 38 33 38 38 Personal finances 58 57 60 57 Consumer Comfort Index -8-15 -6-9 40 30 20 ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 10 0 Recession 3/01-10 Average -20-30 -40 Recession 7/90-50 -60 1986 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 TREND The CCI about matches its 2007 average, -6, but is 10 points below its high for the year, +2 on March 11. It s averaged -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, ranging from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992 ABC/Post CCI This week -8 2007 low -15 June 3 2007 high +2 March 11 2007 average -6 2000 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year 2
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-50 Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +49 among higher-income people while -53 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among those who ve been to college while -32 among high-school dropouts and -5 among whites but -37 among blacks. Unusually, it s essentially the same among men and women, -8 and -9 respectively; the index customarily is lower among women. Partisan differences remain: The CCI is +25 among Republicans, but -11 among independents and -22 among Democrats. But the 47-point gap between Democrats and Republicans has been far bigger, peaking at 90 in July of 2004. ABC/Post CCI Since 2006: Positive Ratings 70 Personal finances 60 50 Economy 40 Buying climate 30 20 01/15/06 02/12/06 03/12/06 04/09/06 05/07/06 06/04/06 07/02/06 07/30/06 08/27/06 09/24/06 10/22/06 11/19/06 12/17/06 01/14/07 02/12/07 03/11/07 04/07/07 05/06/07 06/03/07 07/01/07 07/29/07 Here s a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: NATIONAL ECONOMY Forty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 44 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 42 5 37 58 40 18 Avg. since 12/85 40 4 37 60 40 20 3
PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 59 percent last week. The best was 70 percent last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 58 7 51 42 30 12 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 30 13 BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-eight percent say it s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 39 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 38 3 35 62 43 19 Avg. since 12/85 38 3 36 62 41 21 METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending July 29, 2007. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Madeleine Perez. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.go.com/us/pollvault/. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934. 07/29/07 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -8-5 -7-5 -10 2-19 -7 State of Economy -16-12 -20-14 -22-4 -34-16 Personal Finances 16 18 22 26 22 30 10 21 Buying Climate -24-22 -22-26 -30-12 -36-25 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -8-4 -3 9 6 17-12 4 Women -9-6 -8-18 -25-3 -32-16 4
Age: 18-34 -8 0 6-3 -4 6-24 -3 35-44 -14-13 -1-11 -14 11-23 -7 45-54 1 2-13 -1-21 2-30 -11 55-64 -18-15 -12-5 -10 22-26 -7 65+ -4-4 -20-5 -6 8-22 -7 Income: Under $15K -53-41 -55-54 -65-21 -71-49 $15K To $24.9K -39-42 -42-33 -44-15 -62-36 $25K To $39.9K -15-23 -30-32 -7 0-41 -19 $40K To $49.9K -24-6 1-4 -6 15-34 -10 Over $50K 20 21 26 22 13 35 6 21 $50K To $74.9K 2 0 21 8-9 29-20 6 $75K To $99.9K 18 20 8 16 22 44 1 20 Over $100K 49 46 44 40 29 56 19 40 Region: Northeast -11-8 -15-17 -13 11-35 -14 Midwest -19-18 -20-6 -13 2-33 -13 South -7-1 -3-1 -17 16-19 -3 West 4 3 10 1 6 23-11 2 Race: White -5-3 -2 1-7 10-12 -2 Black -37-29 -41-34 -38-11 -54-36 Politics: Republican 25 28 29 40 24 45 12 30 Democrat -22-20 -29-26 -34-13 -37-25 Independent -11-8 -10-20 -19 1-28 -14 Education: < High School -32-34 -31-13 -53-13 -53-33 High Sch. Grad. -15-13 -20-18 -14 0-31 -16 College + 4 10 13 8 4 18-9 8 Home: Own -3 0 1 0-3 10-12 0 Rent -19-17 -25-22 -29-12 -40-24 Marital Status: Single -11-6 -6-13 -12 1-32 -12 Married 2 4 3 7 2 17-10 5 Sep/Wid/Div -31-27 -33-24 -44-19 -45-29 Employ. Status: Full-Time -7-4 10 6-5 15-12 4 Part-Time -16-4 -16-7 -10 13-29 -8 Not Employed -7-8 -22-18 -18-7 -43-23 ***END*** 5