Riverside Local School District Five Year Forecast Presentation October 22, 2018 Presented by: Gary A. Platko
Guidance The Ohio Department of Education (ODE) has developed a guide to assist teachers, administrators, Boards of Education, community members or other individuals in developing a general understanding of a school district s five-year forecast. http://education.ohio.gov/getattachment/topics/fina nce-and-funding/five-year-forecast/how-to-read-a- Five-Year-Forecast/HOW-TO-READ-A- FORECAST.pdf.aspx
General Information The five year forecast contains estimates based on the best information available at the time it is prepared The forecast is required to be updated and filed with ODE in October and May of each fiscal year The forecast contains three previous years of actual data (2016-2018) and five years of forecasted data (2019-2023) The numbers on the forecast only tell a small part of the story. The information contained in the forecast assumptions is an integral part of the forecast Riverside s forecast includes the General Fund and Lake County School Financing District fund
Material Changes from Previous Forecast Significant increase in Public Utility Personal Property valuations resulting in additional revenue. Tax Year 2015: $28,057,970 Tax Year 2016: $29,877,430 Tax Year 2017: $49,381,520 Tax Year 2018: $50,035,010 Increase due a valuation increase in excess of $18.5M for American Transmission Systems in Leroy Township PUPP Revenue FY2016 Actual: $1,351,584 PUPP Revenue FY2017 Actual: $1,420,598 PUPP Revenue FY2018 Actual: $2,104,217 PUPP Revenue FY2019 Projected: $2,742,372 PUPP Revenue collects at full voted millage rate (56.69 mills)
Material Changes from Previous Forecast
Executive Overview Solvent through the end of fiscal year 2023 (See line 7.020) Deficit spending is projected to start in fiscal year 2021 Deficit spending is where expenditures exceed revenues See line 6.010 Excess of Revenues and Other Financing Sources over (under) Expenditures and Other Financing Uses FY2020 begins another state biennium budget (Another in FY2022) The district will continue to carefully monitor future potential reductions in state funding and monitor staffing levels, which will change with the opening of the two new elementary schools in August 2019 (FY2020).
Executive Overview
Revenues vs. Expenditures Note: Fiscal years 2016-2018 are actual. Fiscal years 2019-2023 are projected.
Revenue Note: Based on fiscal year 2019 projected revenue.
Revenue Major Components General Property-Real Estate: $27,248,519 (57%) Primarily residential community (82.87%) Total valuation for TY2017 was $963,672,210 vs. $1,092,640,400 in TY2008 Increasing valuation results in additional revenue only from the district s inside millage (4.80 mills) and the substitute levy (4.49 mills, on new construction only) All levies are in place for a continuous period The 4.90 mill levy passed in May 2017 started collection in the second half of FY2018 TY2018 is a reappraisal year. Projecting 4% value increase.
Revenue Major Components
Revenue Major Components Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid: $8,839,091 (19%) State funding formula funding based on enrollment Formula starts with $6,020 per student but is reduced by the state share index based on the district s valuation per pupil and median income compared to state averages Riverside receives only 21.1% or $1,268 per student before guarantee The district is back on the guarantee Projected $903,203 in FY2019 ODE SFPR October #1 calculates the transitional aid guarantee at $844,298.99 Casino tax revenue - $52.00 per student
Revenue Major Components
Enrollment Projection (Headcount)
Kindergarten Enrollment District saw an unexpected spike in kindergarten enrollment in FY2019 All-Day kindergarten to begin in FY2020
Revenue Major Components Property Tax Allocation: $3,650,297 (8%) Homestead and rollback reimbursements from the state (No rollbacks apply to new levies passed after the August 2013 election) TPP reimbursement phase-out Previous and current biennium budget resumed phase-out by reducing it by 5/8 of property tax mill per year $3,096,995 in FY2011 $2,366,917 in FY2012 $1,644,808 in FY2013, FY2014, and FY2015 $947,309 in FY2016 $188,307 in FY2017 $0 in FY2018 and beyond!
Revenue Major Components
Revenue Major Components All Other Operating Revenues: $4,450,254 (9%) Joint Financing District - $2,139,289 In effect through tax year 2019 / collection year 2020 (1 st half of FY2021) Non-renewal of this levy would be detrimental! Monitoring effect of closing of Perry Nuclear Power Plant Pay to Participate fees - $200,591 Open Enrollment In - $647,933 Classroom fees - $195,724 Medicaid Reimbursements - $245,000 Interest Revenue - $175,000 Includes various other revenue streams such as interest, SF14 tuition, excess cost, shared services, field trips, kindergarten tuition, rentals, fines, and manufactured homes tax revenue
Revenue Major Components
Expenditures Note: Based on fiscal year 2019 projected expenditures.
Expenditures Major Components Personnel Services: $23,406,684 (52%) Includes salary and wages for certified, classified, exempt, and administrators Also includes cost of substitute teachers Two bargaining units: RLEA and OAPSE RLEA contract in effect through fiscal year 2021 OAPSE contract in effect through fiscal year 2020 Certified step increase estimated at nearly 3% per year Certified degree changes estimated at 0.33% per year Classified salaries based on negotiated agreement Administrative and exempt salaries estimated to increase 3% per year Forecast assumes some adjustment to staffing levels and savings from retirements
Expenditures Major Components Employees Retirement/Insurance Benefits: $9,810,976 (22%) Projections based on percentage of salaries include: retirement (14.00%), Medicare (1.45%), workers compensation (1.00%) Projections not based on percentage of salaries, but based on employee enrollment include: Medical Insurance: Increase of 8% per year in 2019 and beyond (Actual increase for FY2019 is 9%, but changes were made to the portion paid by employees) Dental and Vision: Increase of 3% per year in 2019 and beyond Member of Lake County Schools Council to help contain costs
Expenditures Major Components Purchased Services: $9,686,165 (22%) Approximately 50% of the costs for purchased services are for tuition based costs, which includes open enrollment out ($1,801,545), community school deductions ($800,000), scholarships out ($919,538), and other tuition related items ($1,317,012) Purchased services includes a wide range of other items including special education services, instructional services, utilities, postage, printing, repairs, security, contracted transportation services, insurance, legal services, etc. Each item is assessed individually and projected based on historical information, current trends, and information known at the time the forecast was prepared
Open Enrollment Students Based On Funded FTE FY2018 In: 104.944 Out: 293.724 Loss: 188.780 FY2019 In: 105.254 Out: 294.134 Loss: 188.880 Note: FY2019 based on SFPR Sept. #2 and FY2018 based on SFPR May #1 payment from ODE.
Community School Deduction Note: FY2019 based on SFPR September #2 and FY2018 based on SFPR May #1 payment from ODE.
Cash Balance Ending Cash Balance (Line 7.020) This line represents the total cash balance without including reservations or outstanding obligations. In ODE s experience, school districts should attempt to maintain a 30 60 day cash reserve Ending cash balance expressed in number of days at June 30 th : 2016 Actual: $6,516,309 57.91 Days 2017 Actual: $5,367,589 46.12 Days 2018 Actual: $8,904,643 75.04 Days 2019 Projected: $11,339,213 91.80 Days 2020 Projected: $12,629,447 98.87 Days 2021 Projected: $12,473,366 94.23 Days 2022 Projected: $10,594,704 77.20 Days 2023 Projected: $7,211,242 50.71 Days
Cash Flow FY2018 and FY2019
What Could Change? Revenue: Property Tax Reappraisal Year PUPP Valuation Reversal Enrollment Spikes (Fairway Pines - 250+ homes and Former Leimco Property Development - 150+ homes) Funding Formula Changes (FY2020) Changes to the Guarantee? Future Open Enrollment Policies Lake County School Financing District Renewal Expenditures Staffing Levels New buildings All day kindergarten Preschool Psychologists Transportation Health Care Plan Changes Purchased Services (Preschool, Community Schools, Open Enrollment)