Galaxy Resources Mt Cattlin - early mover in lithium project pipeline Contract signed Metals & mining Galaxy (GXY) has signed binding agreements for 2017 delivery for 120,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate at US$830/t with upside to US$905/t at higher concentrate grades. Mining has started, the process plant is operating continuously and trucking of concentrate to the port has commenced with the first export shipment expected by the end of December 2016. Year end Revenue (A$m) PBT* (A$m) EPS* (c) 12/15 0.1 (11.9) (1.1) 0.0 N/A N/A DPS (c) P/E (x) Yield (%) 12/16e 18.0 (6.5) (0.4) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/17e 186.0 80.0 4.4 0.0 11.8 N/A 12/18e 205.8 91.5 5.0 0.0 10.4 N/A Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. 19 December 2016 Price A$0.52 Market cap A$953m US$0.75/A$ Net debt (A$m) at 30 September 2016 20.2 Shares in issue 1,832.5m Free float 45 Code GXY Primary exchange ASX Secondary exchange N/A Share price performance Innovation in lithium concentrate processing The extent to which the process plant at Mt Cattlin has been redesigned may not be fully appreciated. An enormous amount of work has been done to increase its earnings capability. The scope has included a 100% increase in throughput capacity, additional circuits to remove deleterious mica, measures to significantly increase the grade of the concentrate and steps to increase recoveries. Production tests are still underway to maximise revenue by optimising recoveries and concentrate grades. Mt Cattlin almost alone in bringing on new capacity Although there are numerous lithium projects that aspire to be producers in the future, there is a dearth of definite new projects entering production in the near term. GXY is the newest producer supplying up to 20,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) of raw material into the growing lithium market. After the 2016 starts at GXY s Mt Cattlin project and the Mt Marion project (Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium/Mineral Resources/Neometals), there appear to be no new lithium projects until at least late 2017. Valuation: Exposure to the lithium price We have valued GXY using NPV10 methods for Mt Cattlin and Sal de Vida under a base case (conservative) and two scenarios: Case 1 and Case 2 (more bullish). With resource similarities between the Mt Cattlin operation and the James Bay project, we have also determined an indicative valuation for James Bay. Our valuation for GXY s assets is A$0.50/share (base), A$0.55 (Case 1) and A$0.68 (Case 2). Exploration potential at both Mt Cattlin and James Bay could lift the valuation a three-year extension at both properties would lift the valuation to A$0.57/share (base), A$0.62 (Case 1) and A$0.75/share (Case 2). Valuations will increase with time as capital is spent and projects developed. % 1m 3m 12m Abs 45.1 35.5 485.2 Rel (local) 40.1 30.8 431.7 52-week high/low A$0.55 A$0.08 Business description Galaxy Resources (GXY) is a producer and developer of lithium feedstocks, both hard rock concentrate and lithium brine. Mt Cattlin has commenced (160,000tpa lithium concentrate) with planning for its Sal de Vida brine project (25,000tpa lithium carbonate) at an advanced stage. Next events Annual financial report March 2017 Analysts Peter Chilton +61 (0)2 9258 1161 Tom Hayes +44 (0)20 3077 5725 mining@edisongroup.com Edison profile page Galaxy Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
Mt Cattlin: Poised to capture high Li 2 O prices With the reopening of the Mt Cattlin operation, one of the objectives was to redesign and reconfigure parts of the plant to increase its earnings capability. To achieve this, throughput rates were increased from 0.8mtpa to 1.6mtpa and measures were taken to substantially increase the recovery (or yield) and grade of the lithium concentrate (Li2O). Lithium concentrate is sometimes referred to as spodumene. One of the measures taken included the removal of a substantial proportion of the mica, which had previously reported to the product stream and diluted the lithium grade of the concentrate. Under the new plant configuration, earnings benefit from higher sales volumes and a higher value concentrate. Lithium concentrate is the raw material sold to the converters, which then upgrade the lithium concentrate to lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide. These are the higher priced endfeedstocks, which are sold to battery makers. There is an approximate formula for lithium concentrate prices, which is linked to the lithium carbonate price. Prices are generally higher for higher-grade concentrates. There may be penalties for impurities such as mica. Price formulas may vary between contracts and may be affected by supply-demand conditions at the time. GXY is the only existing, independent source of lithium concentrate supply in the market. This is due to the fact that both Greenbushes (operated by Talison Lithium, 51% owned by Tianqi and 49% by NYSE-listed Albemarle Corporation) and Mt Marion are selling their concentrate supplies to their project shareholders rather than in the open market. With no formal spot market for lithium concentrate prices, GXY s concentrate prices are being driven by the incremental supply-demand characteristics of its production. Continuous output achieved at the processing plant GXY has now commenced 24-hour production at the Mt Cattlin processing plant. The company was targeting a lithium concentrate grade of at least 5.5% Li2O with <5.0% mica in the concentrate. However, GXY has achieved better than this. The first five composite samples of production achieved grades ranging from 5.8 to 6.4% Li2O with mica no higher than 4.7% and as low as 1.7%. Both mica and moisture levels were below the contract specification thresholds. The achievement of continuous operations and the improved specifications represent the completion of major milestones for the Mt Cattlin project. Mining underway GXY has recommenced mining at Mt Cattlin using a mining contractor. Initial material for the processing plant was from stockpiled ore. Production of run-of-mine ore is now needed to support the ramp-up of the Mt Cattlin processing plant Optimisation of the process to maximise revenue Although GXY knows it can produce a concentrate at 6% Li2O, this may not necessarily generate the optimum cash flow for the company. As the concentrate grade is increased, Li2O recoveries tend to decrease. There is a trade-off between achieving a high concentrate grade and sacrificing some recovery. GXY currently has insufficient data to analyse the financial impact, so it will carry out production tests and assessments that will look at the relationship between concentrate grade (from 5.5% to >6% Li2O) and Li2O recovery and the financial impact. The impact will be quantified over the next couple of months. Galaxy Resources 19 December 2016 2
The initial targeted Li2O recovery level is 50%. GXY is to work on a number of initiatives during 2017 that have the objective of increasing recovery above the 50% level. If successful, this would increase the lithium concentrate GXY would have available for sale. Trucking of concentrate to the port, first exports imminent Trucking of the Mt Cattlin concentrate to the Port of Esperance began on 5 December 2016. This followed inspection of the product for mica concentration and moisture content by representatives from Esperance Port Authority and Qube Logistics. GXY has given formal instruction to Mitsubishi Corporation to nominate a vessel for the first export shipment of concentrate from Esperance. The company expects the first shipment to take place by the end of December 2016. Offtake agreement for 2017 upside from escalation terms GXY had a binding agreement with its existing China-based buyers for the sale of 120,000 tonnes lithium concentrate to be delivered in calendar 2017. These buyers are chemical converters that produce both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Pricing was not fixed and was finalised as guided and expected in Q416. The lithium concentrate price has now been negotiated at US$830/t FOB, minimum 5.5% Li2O. This is higher than our forecast of US$750/t. There is upside to this price, with US$15/t escalation for every 0.1% improvement in the grade of Li2O delivered. This would lead to an agreed price of up to US$905/t for a 6% lithium concentrate. GXY is discussing longer-term arrangements with its existing customers beyond 2017 and will also look at options to diversify its customer base. Offtake arrangements are settled through partner Mitsubishi Corporation. Exhibit 1: Mt Cattlin an early mover in the development projects pipeline Project Ownership Type Development stage Targeted first production Nameplate production cap. (kt LCE) Capex (A$m) Market cap (A$m) Capex/ market cap (x) Existing production/ cash flow Mt Cattlin Galaxy (100%) Hard rock Commissioning Q416 20 Funded 925 N/A Mt Marion Neometals (14%) Hard rock Commissioning Q416 27 Funded 203 N/A La Negra 2 Albermarle (100%) Brine Evaporating brine Q417 20 Funded 13,819 N/A Pilgangoora Altura (100%) Hard rock DFS released Q417 36 140 166 0.84 Pilgangoora Pilbara Minerals Hard rock DFS released Q118 44 214 706 0.30 (100%) Whabouchi Nemaska (100%) Hard rock DFS released Q318 28 549 365 1.50 Sal de Vida Galaxy (100%) Brine Revised DFS H219 25 501 925 0.54 released Cauchari- Lithium Americas Brine Considering DFS 2019 50 900 226 1.99 Olaroz (50%) revision Total 2,304 Source: Company disclosure Production guidance for 2017 GXY s production guidance for 2017 is for 160,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate (spodumene) based on an approximate 50% recovery. This production level will satisfy the c 40,000 tonnes of 2016 contracted volumes to be delivered at US$600/t and the 120,000 tonnes of newly contracted 2017 volumes at a minimum US$830/t. It is expected that 35,000 tonnes of 2016 contracted offtake will be delivered in 2017. GXY will continue working to improve recoveries at the Mt Cattlin processing plant. This may result in incremental production in 2017. This would be sold to existing and/or new customers. Galaxy Resources 19 December 2016 3
Valuation Our valuations have been revised for Mt Cattlin updates in December 2016 and the revised Sal de Vida DFS in August 2016. Although we have incorporated higher lithium concentrate prices for FY17, the effect on valuations has been immaterial due to the long dated nature of the projects, additional shares in issue and recoveries that are still at the lower end of the future expected range. The share issue was announced on 11 November 2016 for total additional shares of 25.7m comprising conversion of 25m options at A$0.03/share, 0.63m shares issued to a contractor for services at Mt Cattlin with the balance issued as consideration for the acquisition of tenements. Exhibit 2: Price scenarios for lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate (Li2O) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 LT Base case Lithium carbonate (US$/t) 10,000 10,000 10,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 Lithium concentrate (US$/t) 600 830 650 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 Case 1 Lithium carbonate (US$/t) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 Lithium concentrate (US$/t) 600 830 650 650 650 550 550 550 550 550 550 Case 2 Lithium carbonate (US$/t) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 7,500 Lithium concentrate (US$/t) 600 830 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 550 Source: Edison Investment Research Exhibit 3: Valuation of GXY assets We have produced valuations for a base case (conservative) and two scenarios, Case 1 and Case 2 for GXY using price scenarios from Exhibit 2. These are shown in Exhibit 3. Case 1 represents a lower demand scenario than Case 2 with prices falling after 2020. Case 2 represents a high demand scenario with higher prices sustained to 2025. Base case Case 1 Case 2 Projects A$/share A$/share A$/share Sal de Vida (US$m) 372.3 411.1 532.3 Sal de Vida (A$m) 496.4 0.27 548.1 0.30 709.7 0.39 Mt Cattlin (A$m) 320.5 0.17 341.4 0.19 366.1 0.20 James Bay (A$m) 103.9 0.06 125.7 0.07 165.0 0.09 Total 920.8 0.50 1,015.2 0.55 1,240.8 0.68 Issued shares 1,832.5 A$/US$ 0.75 Source: Edison Investment Research Our valuation assumptions include: NPV10 valuation methodology: we have carried out NPV10 valuations for GXY s Mt Cattlin operation and its Sal de Vida and James Bay projects. Lithium carbonate prices: we used the lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate prices in Exhibit 2 for our valuations. For lithium concentrate we used US$600/t in 2016 (contracted at this price), US$830/t in 2017 (contracted at this price for a 5.5% Li2O concentrate) and US$650/t in 2018. We developed a formula that provides an approximate link between the lithium concentrate price and the lithium carbonate price. The lithium concentrate price will also be affected by the supply/demand characteristics of lithium concentrate itself. Potash price: we used US$300/t, which we believe is a long-term sustainable price. Mt Cattlin: our valuation attributes 100% of the project to GXY following the takeover of GMM Sal de Vida: originally, it was proposed to develop Sal de Vida in more than one stage. We now assume the project is developed in one stage. While GXY may sell an interest in this project, our valuation attributes 100% of the project to GXY. If an interest in the project is sold, we assume the transaction is accomplished at the corresponding share of the NPV. James Bay: this is still an early-stage project. A DFS is expected to recommence in H117. However, it is similar in deposit type and size to Mount Cattlin. Lithium (Li2O) grades are slightly Galaxy Resources 19 December 2016 4
higher but tantalum grades have not been recorded. Given the similarities, we have modelled James Bay on a similar basis to Mt Cattlin assuming no tantalum co-product revenue. We assume a capital cost of US$112.5m (A$150m) to develop the project. We have assessed the sensitivity of the GXY valuation to the long-erm LCE price and increased mine lives from exploration success: Valuation sensitivity to assumed LCE price: the base case GXY valuation, across all its projects, changes by approximately A$250m or A$0.14/share for every US$1,000/t change in the long-term LCE price assumed. Valuation sensitivity to exploration success and extended mine lives: recognising the exploration potential at both properties, we have also assessed the valuation impact of an additional three years of mine life at both Mt Cattlin and James Bay (see Exhibit 4). Sal de Vida already has a long mine life in the order of 40 years. Exhibit 4: Valuation of GXY assets: assumes an extra three years life at both Mt Cattlin and James Bay Base case Case 1 Case 2 Projects A$/share A$/share A$/share Sal de Vida (US$m) 372.3 411.1 532.3 Sal de Vida (A$m) 496.4 0.27 548.1 0.30 709.7 0.39 Mt Cattlin (A$m) 409.6 0.22 430.3 0.23 467.6 0.26 James Bay (A$m) 144.6 0.08 166.4 0.09 205.7 0.11 Total 1,050.6 0.57 1,144.8 0.62 1,383.0 0.75 Issued shares 1,832.5 A$/US$ 0.75 Source: Edison Investment Research Financials Upfront prepayments of US$13.5m were received in 2016 in respect of 22,500 tonnes of lithium concentrate. Physical concentrate shipments are anticipated by the end of December 2016. Our net income forecast for FY17 has increased from A$68.6m to A$80.0m, mainly as a result of the higher than expected lithium concentrate settlement of US$830/t vs our forecast of US$750/t. We have not changed price forecasts beyond FY17 and earnings forecasts are essentially unchanged. Galaxy Resources 19 December 2016 5
Exhibit 5: Financial summary A$'000s 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 31-December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 1,459 185 50 18,000 186,005 205,769 210,353 Cost of sales (9,503) (4,494) (1,981) (16,270) (94,769) (99,904) (108,896) Gross profit (8,044) (4,309) (1,931) 1,730 91,236 105,865 101,457 General & administrative costs (5,470) (4,013) (4,488) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) EBITDA (13,514) (8,322) (6,419) (3,270) 86,236 100,865 96,457 Depreciation (6,945) (152) (123) (1,000) (3,450) (3,450) (11,150) EBIT (before amort. and except.) (20,459) (8,474) (6,542) (4,270) 82,786 97,415 85,307 Intangible amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals (48,584) (10,134) (1,258) 0 0 0 0 Share based payments (449) (211) (2,446) (1,600) 0 0 0 EBIT (69,492) (18,818) (10,246) (5,870) 82,786 97,415 85,307 Net Interest (12,346) (10,396) (5,334) (2,207) (2,765) (5,910) (11,773) Profit before tax (norm) (32,805) (18,870) (11,876) (6,476) 80,021 91,504 73,534 Profit before tax (FRS 3) (81,838) (29,214) (15,580) (8,076) 80,021 91,504 73,534 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 (22,060) Profit after tax (norm) (32,805) (18,870) (11,876) (6,476) 80,021 91,504 51,474 Profit after tax (FRS 3) (81,838) (29,214) (15,580) (8,076) 80,021 91,504 51,474 Minority interest 0 133 710 0 0 0 0 Net income (norm) (32,805) (19,003) (12,586) (6,476) 80,021 91,504 51,474 Loss from discontinued operation 26,064 25,490 (70,443) 0 0 0 0 Net income (FRS 3) (107,902) (54,837) 54,153 (8,076) 80,021 91,504 51,474 Average number of shares outstanding (m) 721.8 1,044.2 1,137.7 1,526.0 1,832.5 1,832.5 1,832.5 EPS - normalised (c) (4.5) (1.8) (1.1) (0.4) 4.4 5.0 2.8 EPS - (IFRS) (c) (14.3) (5.1) 4.9 (0.5) 4.4 5.0 2.8 Dividend per share (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 10 49 51 48 EBITDA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A -18 46 49 46 Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) N/A N/A N/A -24 45 47 41 BALANCE SHEET Non-current assets 139,416 132,944 127,239 437,290 565,174 693,057 750,574 Intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible assets 139,314 132,904 125,690 437,290 565,174 693,057 750,574 Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Available for sale assets 102 40 1,549 0 0 0 0 Current assets 177,512 202,385 12,444 (11,190) 67,832 134,553 101,549 Stocks 1,162 1,096 1,065 856 7,481 7,909 8,658 Debtors 537 669 6,618 1,500 15,500 17,147 17,529 Cash 2,565 13,389 4,761 (13,546) 44,850 109,497 75,361 Available for sale assets 173,248 187,231 0 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities (205,437) (277,809) (1,414) (10,802) (17,803) (18,626) (18,817) Creditors (4,547) (5,162) (1,361) (750) (7,750) (8,574) (8,765) Short term borrowings (64,702) (101,233) 0 (10,000) (10,000) (10,000) (10,000) Other (945) (15,610) (52) (52) (52) (52) (52) Liabilities assoc with for sale assets (135,243) (155,804) 0 0 0 0 0 Non-current liabilities 7,376 7,455 35,467 35,413 136,746 238,079 197,546 Long term borrowings 0 0 (28,293) (28,239) (129,572) (230,906) (190,372) Other long term liabilities (7,376) (7,455) (7,174) (7,174) (7,174) (7,174) (7,174) Net assets 104,115 50,065 102,802 379,885 478,457 570,904 635,759 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow (18,560) (8,987) (7,380) 1,446 91,161 100,557 86,837 Net Interest 139 (16,399) (12,952) (2,207) (2,765) (5,910) (11,773) Tax 0 0 185 0 0 0 0 Capex (6,288) (6,915) (1,865) (27,600) (131,333) (131,333) (68,667) Acquisitions/disposals (6,042) 13,030 46,931 0 0 0 0 Equity financing, other 25,573 25 (23) 0 0 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net cash flow (5,178) (19,246) 24,897 (28,307) (42,937) (36,687) 6,398 Opening net debt/(cash) 160,426 197,380 243,648 23,532 51,785 94,722 131,409 Debt initiated (3,278) 25,786 (36,714) 10,000 101,333 101,333 (40,533) Other 40,232 20,482 (183,402) 18,253 (58,397) (64,646) 34,136 Closing net debt/(cash) 197,380 243,648 23,532 51,785 94,722 131,409 125,011 Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research Galaxy Resources 19 December 2016 6
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Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Galaxy Schumannstrasse Resources 34b 19 December 280 High Holborn 2016 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor Level 25, Aurora Place Level 15, 171 Featherston St 7 60325 Frankfurt Germany London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom New York +1 646 653 7026 10167, New York US Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161 88 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555 Wellington 6011 New Zealand