Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: The Skies are Beginning to Clear Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
Before this Year TX Economy Has Grown Above Trend and Stronger than Most States In past five years growth in energy, construction and exports provided a strong stimulus to Texas. 214 growth was broad based across sectors. Energy, construction, business services, health care, exports and tourism strong. In 215, low oil prices, strong dollar and labor market tightness restraining job growth. I expect job growth will slow in 215 to between.5% and 1.5% (from 3.6% in 214).
Texas Economic Growth Dipping Below Trend (Texas Business Cycle Index) 12 M/M SAAR 1 8 6 4 2 2.6% trend -2-4 -6-8 NOTE: Shaded areas represent Texas recession.
ND FL TX GA UT NV OR CO WA CA NC SC AR AZ TN US DE ID KY MA LA WY MI WI OK NY AL NM MD CT IN IA KS OH NH MN RI PA IL DC VT AK VA SD MO NJ NE MS MT ME HI WV Texas Ranked Third in Job Growth in 214, Growth in Energy States Varied Widely Percent Change, Dec. 213 - Dec. 214 5 4.5 4 3.5 TX 3 2.5 U.S. 2 1.5 1.5 -.5 NOTE: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NV UT SD ID WA MI SC FL CO CA HI MA OR IN VT NY RI US NC CT MN ME KY IA VA MD GA TN DE AR NJ TX MT OH MO MS PA NH WI AZ IL AL KS DC NE NM LA OK AK WV WY ND Texas Ranked 31 rd in Job Growth So Far in 215, But Above Most Energy States Annualized Percent Change, Dec. 214 - June 215 5 4 3 2 U.S. 1 TX -1-2 -3-4 NOTE: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Texas Jobs Growing Below the Nation So Far in 215 Percent, Job Growth Y/Y 5 U.S. 4 Texas 3.5 3.6 3 2 1 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.8.8 1.8 1.1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Note: 215 data annualized through June. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214-3.8-3.4
Job Growth has been Broad-Based Across Large Texas Metro Areas Nonfarm Employment Index Aug. 28=1 125 12 Austin 115 11 15 San Antonio Houston Dallas TX Ft. Worth Corpus Christi El Paso 1 U.S.* 95 9 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 *Indexed from U.S. Peak Employment in January 28 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Unemployment Rate Well Below Nation Percent, SA 1.5 9.5 US unemployment rate 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 Texas unemployment rate 5.3 (June) 4.2 (June) 3.5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Energy, Construction & Manufacturing Have Weakened Significantly in 215 Dec/Dec Percent Change (Job Growth 212-215) 2 15 Oil & Gas Construction 1 5 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Manufacturing Business Services Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Leisure & Hospitality Information Services Health & Education Government -5-1 -15-2 Share of Total Employment (2.4%) (5.6%) (2.2%) (7.4%) (13.4%) (6.%) (1.5%) (1.7%) (13.3%) (15.7%) Note: Striped bars represent Dec. 214 - June 215 annualized change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Construction Contract Values Increasing Strongly This Year Real $, Mil 5MMA, SA 1 9 8 Total 7 6 5 4 Residential 3 Non Residential 2 1 Non Building 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Source: F.W. Dodge, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
TX Home Inventories Remain at Historically Low Levels Months 18 16 14 Texas U.S. 3.4 4.8 12 1 8 June 215 6 4 2 Source: Multiple Listing Service
TX Office Vacancy Rising and New Construction Declining Real, Millions $, 5MMA 45 4 35 3 Office Vacancy Rate Office and Bank Buildings Contract Value Percent 35 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 5 1 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Source: F.W. Dodge, CBRE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5
TX Manufacturing Beginning to Show Signs of Improvement Index 1 8 6 4 2 July 15-2 -4-6 -8 Production Volume of New Orders Company Outlook -1 Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Texas Exports Have Weakened as Value of the Dollar has Risen Index, SA, Real Jan. 2=1 26 Index Jan. 1988=1 115. 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Texas Value of the Dollar Texas U.S. minus Texas 11. 15. 1. 95. 9. 85. 8. 75. 7. 8 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Source: U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, WISERtrade, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 65.
Oil Prices Low, Drilling Rig Count Down by 6% Number 1 Rig Count Nominal $ 16 9 14 8 12 7 1 6 8 5 6 4 3 Oil price Gas price(*1) 4 2 2 Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Baker Hughes.
Texas Metro Areas Differ Greatly in Share of Jobs in the Oil and Gas Industry El Paso* Brownsville-Harlingen Mcallen-Edinburg-Pharr Sherman-Denison San Antonio Beaumont-Port Arthur Austin-Round Rock Lubbock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Laredo Amarillo College Station-Bryan Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Corpus Christi Tyler San Angelo Abilene Victoria Longview Odessa Midland 5 1 15 2 25 3 Share of Employment in Mining Sector *El Paso data as of 28. All others as of 212. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
What Impact Does a Decline in Oil Prices Have on the Texas Economy? Oil prices have declined by nearly 6% since last July, initial drop from $16 to $8 likely was good for TX economy Sustained drop from $8 to $45 is hurting TX economy - $45- $55 is below the breakeven point for majority of shale drilling. Q1 SWE article by Michael Plante suggested that 5% decline in oil prices would lead to job loss of 14,
Energy s Share of TX Economy Increased with Shale Drilling Percent, SA 5 Percent 16 4.5 Mining as a Share of Nominal Texas GDP 13.8% 14 4 3.5 12 3 1 2.5 2 Mining as a Share of Total Texas Employment 2.4% 8 6 1.5 1 4.5 2 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 NOTE: GDP values prior to 1997 and employment values prior to 199 extrapolated from SIC coded data. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRB Dallas.
TX Job Growth Relative to Nation Impacted by Oil Prices Percent difference in TX and U.S. growth, 12MMA 4 3 2 1 Texas Job Growth Relative to U.S. Real price, $, monthly average 16 14 12 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Real Oil Price 8 6 4 2-6 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 SOURCES: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pickup in Leading Index Led By Reduced Unemployment Claims Texas Leading Index Components, 3 month change April -June.94 Net Change in Texas Leading Index -.1 Texas Value of the Dollar.62 U.S. Leading Index.56 Real Oil Price -.27 Well Permits.87 New Unemployment Claims -.23 Texas Stock Index -.25 Help Wanted Index -.34 Average Weekly Hours -.4 -.2..2.4.6.8 1. 1.2
Texas Job Growth Likely to be between.5 1.5% in 215, down from 3.6% in 214 Millions of Jobs 12.5 Index (1987=1) 135 12. 11.5 11. Leading Index 13 125 12 115 1.5 1. Texas Nonfarm Employment and TLI Forecast (with 8% confidence band) 11 15 9.5 1 9. Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, author's calculations 95
Summary TX expansion was strong until this year. Initial oil price decline from $16 to $8 had positive impact but movement from $8 to $45-$55 has had sharply negative impacts. Strong dollar and tight labor markets also dampening growth but long-term factors and diversification helping us to do better than other energy states and relative to 198s. Biggest cuts in the energy sector are likely over but recent oil price decline likely means some further cuts in second half. This year Texas job growth likely to be.5-1.5% (58,7 to 176,3 jobs).