学校编码 :10384 分类号密级 学号 : 15720090153743 UDC 博士学位论文 对外援助, 国际收支平衡及经济增长 以赞比亚为例 FOREIGN AID, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH-THE CASE OF ZAMBIA Francis Mulenga Muma 指导教师姓名 : 黄梅波教授 专业名称 : 世界经济 论文提交日期 : 2012 年 4 月 论文答辩时间 : 2012 年 5 月 学位授予日期 : 2012 年 5 月 答辩委员会主席 : 评阅人 : 2012 年 5 月
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XIAMEN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS DEPARTMENT PhD THESIS ON FOREIGN AID, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH-THE CASE OF ZAMBIA SUBMITTED BY FRANCIS MULENGA MUMA STUDENT NO.15720090153743 SUPERVISOR: PROF. HUANG MEIBO PhD TITLE: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Thesis submitted in partial requirements of the School of Economics for the fulfilment of the degree leading to PhD in International Economics and Business.
TOPIC: FOREIGN AID, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH THE CASE OF ZAMBIA
TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements... VI 摘要... VIII Abstract...XII Chapter 1 Introduction... 1 1.1 Introduction... 1 1.2 Significance of the Research... 1 1.3 Literature Review... 7 1.4 Historical and General Perspectives of Foreign Aid... 16 1.4.1 History... 16 1.4.2 Definition... 19 1.4.3 Criticism of Aid... 22 1.4.4 The Effectiveness of Aid... 23 1.4.5 Where Aid Actually Goes... 26 1.4.6 Implications... 28 1.4.7 Response to Criticisms of Aid... 30 1.4.8 Dynamic Way of Extending Aid... 30 1.4.9 Impact... 33 1.5 Development Assistance and Humanitarian Aid... 33 1.5.1 Specific Types of Aid... 37 1.5.2 OECD Categories... 38 1.6 Possible Improvements of Foreign Aid Extension... 39 1.6.1 Global Poverty... 40 1.7 Statement of Purpose... 46 1.8 Research Questions... 47 1.8.1 General Objectives of the Study... 47 1.8.2 Specific Objectives... 48 1.9 Design: Strategy and Framework... 49 1.9.1 Sample Plan... 49 1.9.2 Data Analysis... 49 I
1.9.3 Limitations and Delimitations... 50 1.9.4 Ethical issues: Consent, Access and Participants Protection... 50 1.9.5 Structure of the Thesis... 50 Chapter 2 Theoretical Framework of Foreign Aid, BoP and Economic Growth... 52 2.1 Empirical Evidence on the Associations of Aid and Economic Growth.. 52 2.2 Theories of Foreign Aid and Economic Growth- Two-Gap Model... 65 2.3 Effects of Foreign Aid on Savings and Investment... 68 2.3.1 Direct Impact of Aid on Domestic Savings, Investment and Growth (Public Sector)... 68 2.4 Foreign Aid and Domestic Savings: The Crowding Out Effects... 71 2.4.1 The Crowding Out Hypothesis... 72 2.4.2 Indirect Impact of Aid on Domestic Savings, Investment and Growth (Private Sector)... 75 2.5 The Two- gap Analysis Theory and the Three-gap Model... 77 2.6 General Observations about the Effects of Foreign Aid on Savings and Investment... 79 Chapter 3 Econometric Analysis of Aid and Economic growth... 83 3.1 Research Methodology-Conceptual Framework, Theory, Hypotheses and Theoretical Modelling... 83 3.2 Construction and Review of Econometric Models... 89 3.2.1 The Model by Gupta and Islam... 90 3.2.2 Paul Mosley s Model... 91 3.3 Hypothesis... 98 3.4 Methodology and Data... 99 3.4.1 Specification of the Model... 99 3.5 Variable Description and Data Sources... 103 3.6 Econometric Regression Results... 106 3.7 Interpretation of Econometric Results... 109 Chapter 4 Aid Fungibility Effects on an Economy...114 4.1 Results from the Prevailing Literature... 115 4.2 Fungibility and Off-Budget Aid... 116 4.3 Taking into Account Off-Budget Aid... 118 II
4.4 Why Aid might not be Fungible... 119 4.5 Disadvantages of Foreign Aid... 120 4.6 Corresponding Flows of Funds - Fungibility... 123 Chapter 5 Chinese Aid, Trade and Investment to Zambia...127 5.1 Chinese Foreign Aid, Trade and Investments in Africa... 130 5.1.1 Chinese Trade and FDI in Africa... 130 5.1.2 Chinese Foreign Aid to Africa... 131 5.1.3 Chinese Trade and FDI to Zambia... 132 5.2 Chinese Foreign Aid in Zambia... 136 5.2.1 Macroeconomics Dynamics in Zambia... 141 5.2.2 Sino- Zambia Relations- Chinese Foreign Aid to Zambia... 152 5.3 Chinese, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment... 154 5.4 Political Relations... 162 5.5 Trade Relations, Economic and Technical Cooperation... 163 5.6 Exchanges in the Field of Culture, Education and Health... 173 5.7 Commentary on Investment as the Key Issue... 173 Chapter 6 Effectiveness of Development Assistance from China...176 6.1 Motivations and objectives of foreign aid... 200 6.1.1 Inspirations: Why Foreign Assistance Matters... 200 6.2 Progressive Objectives of Aid... 203 6.3 Aid Administration and Effectiveness... 205 6.4 Strategy... 206 6.4.1 Finding the Suitable Legal and Political Foundation... 206 6.4.2 Administering Competing National Interests... 207 6.4.3 Achieving Greater Policy Consistent for Development... 208 6.4.4 Public Consciousness... 209 6.5 Organizational Management... 211 6.5.1 Recognition of a workable Leadership Structure... 211 6.5.2 Bilateral aid: Dealing with Institutional Diffusion... 212 6.5.3 Managing Contributions to the Multilateral Institutions... 213 6.5.4 Dispersing Management to the Field... 214 6.6 Management of Discharge of Development Aid... 216 6.6.1 Managing the Balancing up of Development aid... 216 III
6.6.2 Maintaining a Spotlight Approach: Countries and Sectors... 217 6.6.3 Performance-Based Administration, Evaluation and Quality Control219 6.6.4 Human Resource Administration Priorities... 221 6.7 Observations... 223 6.8 Aid Failure, Conditionality and Evaluation... 224 6.9 Pay-out Pressures... 232 6.9.1 Structural Adjustment Loan Conditions... 232 6.9.2 Debt Pressures... 232 6.9.3 Aid, Trade and Investment... 234 6.9.4 Observations on Aid-Trade-Investment Relationship... 244 Chapter 7 Conclusion and Recommendations...248 7.1 Conclusion... 248 7.2 Policy Recommendations... 251 Appendix 1...253 References...254 IV
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1.0: Development Aid... 35 Picture1.0: The number of Poor People Declining Everywhere... 41 Chart 1.0: Number of People living below $1.25 a Day and Population living below $2.00 a day % of Total... 42 Picture1.1: Boom Harvest in Afghanistan... 42 Table 2-1: Summary Effects of Different Types of Aid... 64 Table 3-1: GDP Growth and Government Spending on Foreign Aid in the 1990s and 2000s... 96 Table 3-2: GDP Growth and Aid in the 1990s and 2000s... 98 Table 3-3: Regression Results of Equation (3.12)... 107 Table 3-4: Regression Results of Equation (3.13)... 108 Table 3-5: Regression Results of Equation (3.14)... 108 Table 3-6: Regression Results of Equation (3.15) (passes all tests)... 109 Table 5-1: Inflation, Average Consumer Prices... 146 Table5-2: Zambia - GDP - Per Capita (PPP) (US$)... 148 Table 5-3: Zambia GDP- Real Growth Rate 2003-2011... 150 Table 5-4: Zambia's Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Product - 1994 To 2009... 156 Figure 7 Reliance on Aid African Countries... 253 V
Acknowledgements In four years I have been studying, conducting this research and writing the thesis I have accrued more debts than I can actually repay. Consequently, this paper would be incomplete without showing gratitude to the following institutions and people, who have made my PhD studies a reality; first and foremost I would like to thank the Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC) and the Government Republic of Zambia for sponsoring my course, the Bank of Zambia (BoZ), my employers, for giving me a paid study leave to come and pursue my studies here in China, and University of Xiamen for accepting me, my supervisor Professor Huang Meibo, for her inspirations, mentorship, tutorship, guidance and spending her valuable time to review this Thesis, whom I personally owe a lot. She has been very firm on me, but kind. My further thanks go to Professor Manenga Ndulo, Dr Stumbeko Musokotwane, Dr Denny Kalyalya and Dr Francis Chingunta of University of Zambia, formerly Minister of Ministry of Finance, former BoZ Deputy Governor-Operations and former Special Assistant for Political Affairs, to the President respectively for encouraging me to accept the PhD offer from China. Furthermore, I would like to thank Zambia Development Agency, particularly Mr Muhabi Lungu, Ministry of Finance and National Planning largely Messrs Emmanuel Kaunda, and Mukuli Chikuba for data collection for this research to be successful. Lastly, but not the least, Dr Trywell Kalusopa of University of Botswana for assisting me with statistical references for this research. Further acknowledgements are extended to Mr Chisha Mwanakatwe, my Director, Ms Penelope Mapoma, Director HR, Mrs Edina Mudenda my former Director, Mr Lameck Zimba my former immediate supervisor at BoZ, Dr Noah Mutoti, Assistant Director Economics Department, lastly all my colleagues and workmates for giving me support and encouragements to achieve this objective of acquiring this PhD degree. To my wife and children, I say many thanks for being patient and understanding. And finally, to all my lecturers, friends, WISE Institute and Economics Department staff whom I may not have a space to mention here individually. However, all the shortcomings of this Paper are entirely mine, and no person mentioned herein bears any responsibility for them. VI
Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my late beloved parents Mr. Ignatius Chishimba Muma and Mrs. Mary Mubanga Muma for bringing me on this earth. Secondly, to my beloved wife Cleopatra Chona Muma, for her lovely care and support during my study at Xiamen University. Lastly but not least, to my beloved children Mulenga, Chipego (Chichi) and my nephew Mubanga Muma who accepted missing their Daddy and uncle respectively and provided lovely support to me while studying at Xiamen. Further, I dedicate this Thesis to the Poor Children of the Third World Countries who barely have a single meal a day. assurance and guidance. (Luke, 11: 9-10). I have been able to achieve the PhD degree through God s VII
摘要 长期以来, 对外援助对于发展中国家经济增长的作用成为各界广泛争论的焦 点 对外援助对于发展中国家的减贫来讲是一个值得探讨的话题 然而, 之前的 对于对外援助和经济增长两者之间关系的实证研究得出的结论是不一致的 因此, 本论文希望通过从经济角度来分析中国对赞比亚的援助对其国际收支 经济增长 的影响, 以期得到比较确定的结论 本论文将建立 两缺口和三缺口模型 来就该问题进行研究, 这些模型是 Gupta and Islam 模型 Paul Mosley 模型和 Harrod-Domar 模型 目前, 撒哈拉以南非洲国家和赞比亚认为中国的对外援助很少有或者没有附加条件, 这与西方国家和其他多边组织提供的对外援助不同 对外援助的附加条件对于援助的实施效果存在积极或消极的作用 研究对外援助对国际收支和经济增长的影响的文献相当丰富, 这些研究可以归结为对 援助经济效益 的研究 本论文除了研究援助的目的和动机, 而且还涉及对外援助的有效性 管理 条件性以及对外援助对国际收支平衡和经济增长的影响等方面 一些学者认为条件性对于避免援助的替代效应 确保援助实施的有效性是必不可少的 与之相反, 有些学者认为条件性可能对国内政策存在挤出效应从而影响援助的效果 鉴于此, 本论文通过建立援助和经济增长的理论模型来就该问题进行考察, 在此基础上进一步分析得出的结论 虽然中国对非援助的有效性和透明性还有所欠缺, 但是本论文还是试图基于对外援助的正反两方面来评估中国对撒哈拉以南非洲援助的 效果 为了研究中国相对于西方国家对撒哈拉以南非洲国家援助的效果, 本论文定性地分析了双边援助的优点和不足以及中国同其他 OECD 国家的对外援助的差异 研究过程中面临的一个问题是某一个国家接受的援助集中记录在国际收支平衡表的一个项目中, 这样就不能将中国的援助 西方国家的援助和其他国家提供给的援助分割开来 除此之外, 本论文考察了中国对外援助的积极效果以及援助如何通过改善受援国的国际收支平衡来增加其自有资本 VIII
在研究对外援助和经济增长的关系时, 需要了解的一个情况是低收入国家经常面临储蓄和投资不足的问题, 因此增加储蓄和投资来刺激经济也成为低收入国家的一个目标 Rostow (1960) 认为对外援助的一个积极作用就是缓解这些国家的资本限制 根据 双缺口模型 理论, 当国家储蓄不能跟投资相匹配时, 唯一的解决措施是从国外获取资本 因此, 对外援助就发挥了作用 历史的经验是, 基于该理论的马歇尔计划 (The Marshall Plan) 对战后欧洲的重建便是一个成 功的案例 但是, 在非洲的援助并不成功 因此, 改进对外援助的传输和组织设 置是必要的, 这些改进的目的是消除冷战对抗 债务危机和世界银行 国际货币基金组织的结构调整项目的失败 在这种情况下, 千年发展目标 (Millennium Development Goals,MDGs ) 已经将对外援助提到了一个空前的高度 非洲在实现千年发展目标方面已经相对落后, 阻碍了年均 8% 的经济增长目标的实施 (UNCTAD 2006, pg1) 但是非洲也正在为达到千年发展目标进行一些新的尝试 本论文也分析了多边和双边提供的带有附加条件的援助存在的不足, 例如由于附加条件对国内政策的实施存在挤出效应从而不利于受援国的经济增长 由于受援国在接受援助之前存在一些既定的目标, 而援助附加条件又是硬性的, 因此实施附加条件需要付出很大的成本, 这就影响了该国预设的一些社会指标的实现, 加剧了贫困水平 更甚的是, 援助通过挤出效应对于受援国的储蓄和投资带来负面影响 由于来自中国等新兴经济体的援助大都不附加条件, 受援国很喜欢这种援助方式 本论文研究了中国的对外援助是否存在增加其对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的影响的政治和经济动机, 以探究中国的对外援助更多的是为了实施本国的国家战略, 还是为了帮助撒哈拉以南非洲国家减贫 这一问题在很多文献中也有涉及 自古以来, 中国就对非洲和赞比亚提供了大量援助 一些观察者认为中国是非洲和赞比亚事务的新的参与者, 这一观点具有误导性 中国对于赞比亚的援助可以追溯到赞比亚还是英国的殖民地的时候 那时, 中国已经向赞比亚提供了一些项目支持 中国虽然对很多贫困国家提供了援助, 但是中国的对外援助由商务部下的对外援助司负责, 中国没有成立专门负责对外援助的特定部门, 也不存在对外援助的规划议程 很多发达国家由专门的部门来负责对外援助事务, 比如美国的美国国家开发署 (United States Agency for International Development, USAID) 英国的国际发展部(Department for International Development, IX
DFID) 日本的国际合作署(Japanese International Corporation Agency, JICA) 和加拿大的国际发展署 (Canadian International Development Agency, CIDA) 等 本论文建议中国也成立一个独立的部门来负责管理 评估和协调对外援助事务 很多模型通过使用面板最小二乘法对对外援助和经济增长的关系进行分析 然而,Quartey (2005), Ouattara (2006) and McGillivray, et al. (2006) 则利用时间序列数据对该问题进行分析 本论文也采取时间序列数据进行实证分 析 本论文得到的结论是援助对赞比亚的经济增长起到了推动作用, 虽然这同其他很多研究得出的结论是不一致的 如果援助变量对于经济增长的负效应是显著的, 那么援助的替代效应就应该被考虑 (Sonja Fagernäs and John Roberts 2004) 然而, 在我们所选取的模型中, 对外援助和经济增长存在正向关系, 所有的变量都是显著的, 尤其是援助变量的系数为 3.2%, 自由度为 5%, 这就意味着每增加一单位的援助就可以带来 3.2% 的 GDP 增长率 同本研究巧合的是,2011 年赞比亚从低收入国家晋升为中低收入国家 当然, 赞比亚的晋升还存在很多其他促进因素, 比如对外援助带来的冲击以及近些年来铜价格的提高等 对外援助带来的冲击带来了对赞比亚的国内储蓄具有积极的替代效应, 这一结论不同于目前对对外援助和受援国经济增长关系的研究所得到的结论 积极的替代效应体现在援助可以释放受援国本来用于资本开支的那部分国内收入, 这部分国内收入可以起到刺激经济的作用 本论文的这一观点具有原创性 此外, 由于 FDI 和 GDFI 等变量都与经济增长存在明显的正相关性, 那么对外援助是否是协同 FDI 通过增加资本品和技术的进口来增加边际生产率 推动技 术内生来促进经济增长呢? 本论文考察的是中国的援助对赞比亚经济增长的贡 献 由于各种原因, 我们不能通过计量的方法给予该问题一个确切的答案 因为所有的对外援助在一国的国际收支平衡表中都集中在一项中, 那么很难对中国和西方国家对外援助的有效性进行定量和计量分析, 只能对该问题进行定性地研究 另外,Burnside and Dollar (2000) 的实证研究表明, 只有在存在良好的宏观经济政策的国家, 援助才能很好地发挥作用 但是, 这一结论在赞比亚案例的考察中是不确定的 这是因为在对开放度和通胀率这两个宏观经济变量进行考察时得到了不一致的结论 在本论文的研究中, 开放度变量是显著的, 而通胀率变 X
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