Challenges & policies to attain sustainable economic convergence in CESEE countries Debora Revoltella Director, EIB Economics Department Frankfurt am Main, 5 Oct 2017 European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 1
Convergence so far: strong investment growth, but also a strong correction Saving, investment and current account balance in cohesion economies (% GDP) Net international investment position ( % GDP, 4-qtr moving sum) Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on Eurostat. Note: Annual data, last record 2017 based on EC Spring forecast. Private balance stands for the private saving minus private investment balance European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 2
Investment recovery, but strong dependency from the Funds cycle Real gross fixed capital formation contributions by asset type, (% yoy) Domestic and funded public investment in CESEE- (% GDP) Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on Eurostat and ECB data. Note: CESEE-: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania. European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 3
Companies in CESEE invest less in intangible assets (R&D in particular) than the rest of the, and there is room for optimizing allocation of resources Investment areas Evolution of the dispersion in the marginal product revenue of capital (MRPK) and the marginal product revenue of labour (MRPL) over the period 2000-2014. 3 groups of countries 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cohesion MRPK Periphery MRPK Other MRPK Cohesion MRPL Periphery MRPL Other MRPL Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on Orbis and EIBIS European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 4
Foreign-owned firms: they invest and innovate more 90% Share of firms investing 50 Share of machinery that is state of the art 85% 40 80% 75% 30 20 10 70% domestic foreign 0 domestic foreign 100% Innovation activity 40 Share of building stock that is energy efficient 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% domestic foreign 30 20 10 0 domestic foreign no inno new to firm new to country new to world Base: all CESEE firms Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on EIBIS European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 5
Lack of skilled staff and uncertainty are the key barriers to firm investment & aging and outward migration critical for municipalities Firms: Long term barriers to investment Municipalities: Drivers of demographics To a great extent To some extent Share of municipalities 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Cesee Cesee Cesee Cesee Low fertility An ageing population Outward migration Inward migration Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on EI BIS and EIB Municipality Survey Base: All municipalities. Sectors are aggregated by the corresponding sub-national share in public investment. European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 6
Budget and length of approval process as main obstacles to infrastructure investment. Short term orientation of policies CESEE: Long term investment barriers Budget Change of public expenditure composition 2007-2016, (difference in percentage points) () Debt Ceiling Access to external finance Technical capacity Coordination Length of approval process Political and reg. stability 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Share of municipalities A major obstacle A minor obstacle Base: All municipalities. Q. To what extent is each of the following an obstacle to the implementation of your infrastructure investment activities? Source: EIB/ECON calculations based on EIB Municipality Survey and AMECO
Policy conclusions Do not waste the opportunity! good policies proper planning and prioritization long term views focus on competitiveness European Investment Bank Group 06/10/2017 8