INDUSTRY AUTOS CMP(as on 25 Jan 2019) Rs 6,516 Target Price Rs 7,400 Nifty 10,781 Sensex 36,026 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MSIL IN No. of Shares (mn) 302 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,968 / 27,632 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 6,394 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 9,929 / 6,410 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (3.1) (33.3) (29.8) Relative (%) (10.1) (31.0) (29.7) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters 56.21 FIs & Local MFs 13.43 FPIs 22.67 Public & Others 7.69 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia aditya.makharia@hdfcsec.com +91-22-3021-2077 Abhishek Jain abhishekkumar.jain@hdfcsec.com +91-22-6171-7314 A Trough Quarter Maruti s 3QFY19 results (PAT of Rs.14.9B, -17% YoY) disappointed as EBITDA margins came in at 9.8% (which was significantly below estimates). The OEM offered higher discounts towards the year end to normalize channel inventory, post a weak festive season. Thus, discounts increased to Rs.24.3K in 3Q (from Rs.18.7K QoQ,). Margins were also impacted by a combination of adverse factors including higher Commodity prices (80bps QoQ) and FX impact(30bps), one time gratuity provision of Rs.480m and higher marketing spends. We expect margins to improve from hereon as i) inventory levels have once again normalized ii) the refreshes for its Ertiga (order backlog for 55K units) and Wagon R have been well received in the market. There are further refreshes lined up over the year iii) To partially offset cost pressures, Maruti has taken price hikes in January (+0.7%). iv) The recent fall in commodity prices will ease inflationary pressures. We believe Maruti remains well positioned in the passenger car segment with a broad based product portfolio as well as a diversified geog raphic presence (rural is ~39% of sales). The management is confident of growing ahead of the industry, driven by product refreshes and its dominant network. We are lowering our earnings estimates by ~11% over FY19-21E to factor in the weaker 3Q results. Post the RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY19 25 JAN 2019 Maruti Suzuki BUY recent correction in the stock price, Maruti trades at 26/22/19x on FY19/20/21E EPS. We maintain BUY with a reduced one year TP of Rs 7,400 (based on 22x Dec 20 EPS). Conference Call highlights Encouraging response to product refreshes: The management highlighted that the recent launch of the Ertiga and the Wagon R has been well received with an order back log of 55Kunits for the Ertiga and ~15K units for the Wagon R. Demand over 1HCY20 will partially benefit from the moderation in fuel prices as well as any election related activity. The management now expects full year industry growth at ~5% in FY19 and Maruti is expected to grow ahead of the same (YTD they have grown at 7%). Commissioning of Phase II at Gujarat: Production at the SMG facility in Gujarat was 58K vehicles in 3Q vs 67K units qoq. The second phase has gone onstream and Maruti will benefit as the engine facilities are also commissioned at Gujarat. Royalty payments to move to INR: The new Wagon R will incur royalty based in INR. This is the sixth vehicle which has moved to rupee based royalty. The sensitivity to JPY fluctuation will reduce as all models will move to INR based royalty by 2022. Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 1,96,683 1,92,832 2.0 2,24,332 (12.3) 7,97,627 8,65,767 9,62,385 10,65,116 EBITDA 19,311 30,378 (36.4) 34,313 (43.7) 1,20,615 1,15,915 1,36,352 1,55,759 APAT 14,892 17,990 (17.2) 22,404 (33.5) 77,217 75,949 90,795 1,05,314 Diluted EPS (Rs) 49.3 59.6 (17.2) 74.2 (33.5) 255 251 301 349 P/E (x) 25 26 22 19 EV / EBITDA (x) 16.2 16.8 14.2 12.3 RoE (%) 20.0 16.9 17.8 18.2 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
While wholesales were flat in the quarter, the OEM reported healthy retails in December (90K units more than dispatches) this has resulted in inventory levels normalizing EBITDA margin declined sharply due to higher discounting, adverse foreign exchange variation, commodity inflation and higher sales promotion expenses, marginally offset by cost reduction efforts Royalty rate stood at 5.5% in 3Q (vs 5.7% in 2QFY19) of net sales Quarterly Financials Snapshot: Standalone Particulars 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) Volumes (in units) 4,28,643 4,31,112 (0.6) 4,84,888 (11.6) Net ASP (Rs/veh) 4,58,850 4,47,290 2.6 4,62,647 (0.8) Net sales (incl OOI) 1,96,683 1,92,832 2.0 2,24,332 (12.3) Material Expenses 1,40,437 1,33,323 5.3 1,52,849 (8.1) Employee Expenses 8,811 6,869 28.3 7,917 11.3 Other Operating Expenses 28,124 22,262 26.3 29,253 (3.9) EBITDA 19,311 30,378 (36.4) 34,313 (43.7) Depreciation 7,677 6,890 11.4 7,212 6.4 EBIT 11,634 23,488 (50.5) 27,101 (57.1) Other Income 9,173 2,449 274.6 5,266 74.2 Interest Cost 207 263 (21.3) 257 (19.5) PBT 20,600 25,674 (19.8) 32,110 (35.8) Tax 5,708 7,684 (25.7) 9,706 (41.2) RPAT 14,892 17,990 (17.2) 22,404 (33.5) EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - - - APAT 14,892 17,990 (17.2) 22,404 (33.5) Adj EPS 49.3 59.6 (17.2) 74.2 (33.5) Margin Analysis: Standalone 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (bps) 2QFY19 QoQ (bps) Material Expenses % Net Sales 71.4 69.1 226 68.1 327 Employee Expenses % Net Sales 4.5 3.6 92 3.5 95 Other Operating Expenses % Net Sales 14.3 11.5 275 13.0 126 EBITDA Margin (%) 9.8 15.8 (594) 15.3 (548) Tax Rate (%) 27.7 29.9 (222) 30.2 (252) APAT Margin (%) 7.6 9.3 (176) 10.0 (242) Page 2
We expect volumes to benefit from Maruti s broad based product portfolio as well as a diversified geographic presence (rural is ~39% of sales). The management is confident of growing ahead of the industry, driven by product refreshes and its dominant network We are lowering our estimates for factor in the weaker 3Q Volume Assumptions (in units) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Domestic sales 13,05,351 14,44,541 16,53,500 17,81,626 19,16,349 20,77,528 % YoY 12 11 14 8 8 8 Export sales 1,23,897 1,24,062 1,26,074 1,07,163 1,13,593 1,20,408 % YoY 2 0 2-15 6 6 Total sales 14,29,248 15,68,603 17,79,574 18,88,789 20,29,942 21,97,936 % YoY 11 10 13 6 7 8 Average Net ASP 4,02,061 4,33,729 4,48,212 4,58,371 4,74,095 4,84,598 % YoY 4% 8% 3% 2% 3% 2% Change In Estimates In mn New Old Change (%) FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E Volume 1.89 2.03 2.20 1.91 2.13 2.30 (0.9) (4.8) (4.3) Net Sales 8,65,767 9,62,385 10,65,116 8,89,233 10,22,032 11,26,788 (2.6) (5.8) (5.5) EBITDA 1,15,915 1,36,352 1,55,759 1,29,418 1,58,793 1,77,393 (10.4) (14.1) (12.2) Adj PAT 75,949 90,795 1,05,314 83,574 1,04,041 1,17,566 (9.1) (12.7) (10.4) Adj EPS (in Rs) 251 301 349 277 344 389 (9.1) (12.7) (10.4) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 3
3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 Volumes Trend EBITDA Margin Trend Blended discounts increased to Rs.24.3.K/unit as the OEM de-stocked inventory in December. 600 550 500 450 400 Volume (000, units) ( % YoY) - RHS 30 25 20 15 10 5 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 EBITDA/vehicle (Rs) EBITDA margin - RHS 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 350 0 30,000 8.0% 300-5 20,000 6.0% While JPY/INR currency remains volatile, new products will incur royalty in INR. Currently 6 models are paying Royalty in Rupees, including the recently launched Wagon R. MSIL s Discount/Vehicle Discount/vehicle (Rs in '000) 24 22 19.9 20 17.9 18 16.6 15.2 15.5 16 15 14 13.7 18.7 24.3 JPY/INR Cross Currency Rate 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.64 0.63 12 0.57 10 8 0.56 0.55 Page 4
3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Maruti is sustaining market share above 50% driven by product refreshes and its dominant retail network MSIL s PV Market Share 53.0% 52.5% 52.1% 52.0% 51.0% 50.5% 51.7% 50.0% 50.4% 50.4% 49.0% 50.0% 48.0% 47.0% 47.4% 47.3% 46.0% 45.0% 44.0% 1 year Forward P/E(X) P/E Avg P/E + 1 SD - 1 SD 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Peer Set Comparison Mcap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs/sh) Reco TP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E Maruti Suzuki 1,968 6,516 BUY 7,400 251 301 349 25.9 21.7 18.7 16.8 14.2 12.3 17 18 18 Bajaj Auto 759 2,623 BUY 3,174 149.4 171.0 190.1 17.6 15.3 13.8 11.6 9.7 8.2 21.5 22.1 21.8 Hero Motocorp 533 2,670 BUY 3,602 185.0 206.0 220.4 14.4 13.0 12.1 9.0 7.9 7.0 30.1 30.4 29.1 Ashok Leyland 242 83 BUY 150 6.3 8.1 8.6 13.0 10.2 9.6 6.7 5.2 4.7 24.3 27.2 25.2 Page 5
Income Statement (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 6,80,348 7,97,627 8,65,767 9,62,385 10,65,116 Growth (%) 18.4 17.2 8.5 11.2 10.7 Material Expenses 4,67,316 5,49,750 6,04,305 6,66,933 7,37,061 Employee Expenses 23,310 28,338 32,589 35,196 38,011 SG&A Expenses 26,976 33,494 38,701 42,222 46,067 Other Operating Expenses 59,216 65,430 74,256 81,682 88,217 EBITDA 1,03,530 1,20,615 1,15,915 1,36,352 1,55,759 EBITDA Margin (%) 15.2 15.1 13.4 14.2 14.6 EBITDA Growth (%) 18.0 16.5 (3.9) 17.6 14.2 Depreciation 26,021 27,580 29,790 30,970 33,189 EBIT 77,509 93,035 86,125 1,05,382 1,22,570 Other Income (Including EO Items) 22,798 20,455 22,497 24,450 27,884 Interest 894 3,457 122 122 - PBT 99,413 1,10,033 1,08,501 1,29,710 1,50,454 Tax (Incl Deferred) 26,036 32,816 32,550 38,913 45,137 RPAT 73,377 77,217 75,949 90,795 1,05,314 RPAT Growth (%) 68.0 5.2 (1.6) 19.5 16.0 EO (Loss)/Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - - APAT 73,377 77,217 75,949 90,795 1,05,314 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 242.9 255.6 251.4 300.6 348.6 EPS Growth (%) 68.0 5.2 (1.6) 19.5 16.0 s Balance Sheet (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 Reserves 3,62,801 4,16,064 4,69,229 5,32,787 6,06,511 Total Shareholder s Funds 3,64,311 4,17,574 4,70,740 5,34,299 6,08,023 Long Term Debt 4,836 1,108 1,108 1,108 1,108 Short Term Debt - - - Total Debt 4,836 1,108 1,108 1,108 1,108 Net Deferred Taxes 4,640 5,589 6,089 6,589 7,089 Long Term Provisions & Others 12,856 14,406 15,847 17,431 19,174 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 3,86,643 4,38,677 4,93,783 5,59,428 6,35,396 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 1,32,927 1,33,590 1,50,059 1,66,348 1,81,419 CWIP 12,523 21,259 22,259 23,259 24,259 Investments 8,932 12,402 12,402 12,402 12,402 LT Loans & Advances 12,388 11,000 17,315 19,248 21,302 Total Non-current Assets 1,66,770 1,78,251 2,02,036 2,21,258 2,39,384 Inventories 32,622 31,608 35,579 39,550 43,772 Debtors 11,992 14,618 16,604 18,457 20,427 Other Current Assets 3,000 4,965 5,215 5,465 5,715 Cash & Equivalents 2,73,483 3,41,211 3,75,967 4,29,513 4,98,994 Total Current Assets 3,21,097 3,92,402 4,33,365 4,92,984 5,68,908 Creditors 83,673 1,04,970 1,12,991 1,24,471 1,39,518 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 17,551 27,006 28,626 30,344 33,378 Total Current Liabilities 1,01,224 1,31,976 1,41,618 1,54,815 1,72,896 Net Current Assets 2,19,873 2,60,426 2,91,748 3,38,170 3,96,011 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 3,86,643 4,38,677 4,93,783 5,59,428 6,35,395 Page 6
Cash Flow (Standalone) (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 99,413 1,10,033 1,08,501 1,29,710 1,50,454 Non-operating & EO items - - - - - Interest expenses 894 3,457 122 122 - Depreciation 26,021 27,580 29,790 30,970 33,189 Working Capital Change 13,669 30,113 (1,440) 6,776 11,328 Tax Paid (26,137) (31,867) (32,050) (38,413) (44,637) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1,13,860 1,39,316 1,04,922 1,29,164 1,50,334 Capex (31,683) (36,979) (47,259) (48,259) (49,259) Free cash flow (FCF) 82,177 1,02,337 57,663 80,905 1,01,075 Investments (1,05,368) (70,618) (32,000) (42,000) (42,000) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (87,963) (96,743) (79,259) (90,259) (91,259) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 4,062 (3,728) - - - Interest Expenses (894) (3,457) (122) (122) - FCFE 85,345 95,152 57,541 80,784 1,01,075 Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Dividend (26,508) (28,081) (26,476) (31,652) (36,714) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (23,340) (35,266) (26,598) (31,774) (36,714) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 2,558 7,307 (935) 7,132 22,361 EO Items, Others - - - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 2,73,483 3,41,211 3,75,967 4,29,512 4,98,993 Key Ratios (Standalone) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 31.3 31.1 30.2 30.7 30.8 EBITDA Margin 15.2 15.1 13.4 14.2 14.6 APAT Margin 10.8 9.7 8.8 9.4 9.9 RoE 23.2 19.8 17.1 18.1 18.4 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 69.0 88.3 76.1 80.1 87.8 RoCE 22.9 20.0 16.9 17.8 18.2 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 26.2 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 Inventory (days) 17.5 14.5 15.0 15.0 15.0 Debtors (days) 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 Other Current Assets (days) 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 Payables (days) 44.9 48.0 47.6 47.2 47.8 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 9.4 12.4 12.1 11.5 11.4 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (28.8) (37.0) (35.5) (34.6) (35.3) Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net D/E (x) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) Interest Coverage (x) 86.7 26.9 706.6 864.6 NA PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 242.9 255.6 251.4 300.6 348.6 CEPS 329.0 346.9 350.0 403.1 458.5 Dividend 75.0 80.0 75.4 90.2 104.6 Book Value 1,206 1,382 1,558 1,769 2,013 VALUATION P/E (x) 26.8 25.5 25.9 21.7 18.7 P/BV (x) 5.4 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.9 16.2 16.8 14.2 12.3 EV/Revenues (x) 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 OCF/EV (%) 5.8 7.1 5.4 6.7 7.9 FCF/EV (%) 4.2 5.2 3.0 4.2 5.3 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 4.3 4.8 2.9 4.1 5.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 Page 7
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 RECOMMENDATION HISTORY 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 Maruti TP Date CMP Reco Target 9-Jan-18 9,434 NEU 9,525 12-Apr-18 9,275 NEU 9,525 28-Apr-18 8,783 NEU 9,432 9-Jul-18 9,304 NEU 9,432 26-Jul-18 9,396 NEU 9,664 3-Oct-18 7,465 BUY 8,252 8-Oct-18 6,893 BUY 8,252 26-Oct-18 6,725 BUY 8,252 9-Jan-19 7,340 BUY 8,252 25-Jan-19 6,516 BUY 7,400 6,000 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 8
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