Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators July 2016 Lutgert College Of Business 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-590-7090 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 4 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Tourist Tax Revenues... 6 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 6 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues... 7 Single-Family Building Permits... 7 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 8 Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 8 Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 9 Taxable Sales... 9 Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region... 10 Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties... 10 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 11 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 11 Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 12 Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 12 Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 14 Sales of Existing Single Family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 14 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County... 15 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County... 15 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 16 Consumer Sentiment Index... 16 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index... 17 Consumer Price Index... 17 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 18 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change... 19 Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment... 19 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040... 20 Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run... 21 Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run... 22 2
Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7090 Email: cwestley@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Copyright 2016 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background Data made available in June depicts a strong regional economy consistent with established seasonal trends that still shows signs of caution some seven years into a national economic expansion. These included a 5- percent increase in seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales for the region in March 2016 over March 2015 and a 3-percent decrease in seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the coastal counties during the same period. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in May 2016 dropped to 4.1 percent for Lee County, 4.3 percent for Collier County, 4.9 percent for Charlotte County, 5.2 percent for Glades County, and 7.6 percent for Hendry County. State of Florida unemployment was 4.7 percent in May 2016. The unemployment rate for the five-county region dropped to 4.3 percent in May from 4.9 percent in April and from 5.6 percent in May 2015. Seasonally-adjusted regional employment increased by 8,399 from May 2015, while the number of unemployed has dropped by 6,937. Lee registered the largest percentage increase in employment during this time period with 2.5 percent, followed by Charlotte (0.5 percent), and then Collier (0.4). Hendry was the only county to register a decrease in employment during this time period, with a 0.9 percent decrease. Other highlights of the July 2016 report include: While existing single family home sales by a Realtor decreased by 2 percent in the coastal counties from May 2015 to May 2016, there were increases in median prices. Single family building permits in the coastal counties held nearly steady in total compared to May 2015, although Lee and Collier Counties showed small decreases. Passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports rose 2 percent in April 2016 over April 2015. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 89 reported for June 2016, compared to 90 in May 2016 and 89.8 in June 2015. Beginning with this issue of Regional Economic Indicators, the title date will reflect the forthcoming month instead of the current month. Thus, this issue is for July, and there will be no issue titled June 2016. The RERI staff extends its sincere thanks and appreciation to the dedicated individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include FGCU student workers affiliated with the RERI; the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council; the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee counties; the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties; the regional airport authorities; the Realtors of Lee and Collier County; the University of Florida Survey Research Center; and the county and city permit offices. 3
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate this seasonality as well as the changes from year to year. Total passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports equaled 1,126,636 in April, up 2 percent over April 2015, and seasonally down 27 percent from March 2015. Charts 1-3 show that only PGD had higher volume in April 2016 versus April 2015, at 98,101, a 31 percent increase. Southwest Florida International Airport reported passenger activity of 900,594, and Sarasota-Bradenton had a passenger count of 127,941, with both airports showing a decrease of less than 1 percent from April 2015. Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 2013 2014 2015 2016 800 700 600 500 400 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 4
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity 150 125 2013 2014 2015 2016 100 75 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 140 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity 120 100 80 60 2015 40 2014 20 0 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5
Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4 and 5, and are based on month of occupancy. In April 2016, Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties showed a 3-percent decline in total tourist tax revenues from April 2015, and a slight (less than 1 percent) increase over March 2016. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues equaled $1,643,398 in April 2016, a 9-percent decrease from April 2015. Over the same time period, Lee County s seasonally-adjusted revenues equaled $3,098,659 (a less-than-1-percent increase), and Charlotte County s seasonally-adjusted revenues equaled $276,669 (a 5 percent decrease). Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties 16.0 14.0 Tourist Tax Revenue 2011 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 6
Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues 4.0 County Tourist Tax Revenue - 2011 to present 3.5 3.0 2.5 Lee 2.0 1.5 Collier 1.0 0.5 Charlotte 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports and seasonal adjustment by RERI Single-Family Building Permits Both Lee and Collier Counties saw a slowdown of single-family building permits in May 2016, with 328 building permits issued by Lee County in May 2016, a decrease of 19 from May 2015 and 11 fewer than April 2016, as shown in Chart 6. Collier County s total for May 2016 amounted to 250, down 2 from May 2015 and 12 fewer than April 2016, as shown in Chart 7. Both Lee and Collier s 13-month trends remain negative. In contrast, Charlotte County issued 75 building permits in May 2016, an increase of 20 over May 2015 and 11 more than April 2016, as depicted in Chart 8. Hendry County has issued 21 permits through May 2016, compared to 7 permits issued through the first five months of 2015. 7
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Permits Issued 2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Permits Issued 1200 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1000 800 600 Permits Linear Trend 400 200 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs, and Fort Myers Beach permits. Data excludes Estero. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 350 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 300 250 200 150 100 50 Permits Linear Trend 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 8
2006 Av 2007 Av 2008 Av 2009 Av 2010 Av 2011 Av 2012 Av 2013 Av 2014 Av 2015 Av May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 250 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 2006-2015 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 200 150 100 Permits Linear Trend 50 0 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections. This data is reported for the month prior to the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five Southwest Florida counties reported seasonally-adjusted taxable sales totaling $2.079 billion in March 2016, an increase of 5 percent (or $102 million) over March 2015, and 1 percent above the February 2016 figure. Charts 10 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $1.08 billion in March 2015 to $1.126 billion in March 2016, a 4- percent increase. Collier County s taxable sales rose from $664.0 million to $702.0 million in March 2016, up 6 percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by 8 percent, from $200.6 million in March 2015 to $215.9 million in March 2016. Hendry County s taxable sales were up 7 percent from $28.9 million in March 2015 to $31.1 million in March 2016. Taxable sales in Glades County jumped 26 percent, increasing from $3.4 million in March 2015 to $4.3 million in March 2016. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 9
Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3.0 Taxable Sales 2011 to Present - 5 County Region 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 0.0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,200 Coastal County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 1,000 800 Lee 600 Collier 400 200 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 10
Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present 30 Hendry 25 20 15 All Data Seasonally Adjusted 10 5 Glades 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 12-16 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 2005 to May 2016, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region dropped to 4.3 percent in May 2016, down 0.6 points from April 2016, and 1.3 points below May 2015. This is a result of an increase of 8,399 (1.6 percent) in seasonally-adjusted employment since May 2015, while the number of unemployed dropped by 6,937 (22 percent). May 2016 unemployment rates for the three coastal counties declined noticeably from April 2016. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in May 2016, down from 5.3 percent in May 2015, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate dipped to 4.3 percent in May 2016, down from 5.4 percent in May 2015, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County was down to 4.9 percent in May 2016, compared to 6.1 percent in May 2015, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s May 2016 unemployment rate declined to 7.6 percent from 8.9 percent in April 2016, and from 10.7 percent in May 2015, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 5.2 percent in May 2016, compared to 7.4 percent in May 2015 and 6.4 percent in April 2016, as shown in Chart 16. Florida s unemployment rate dipped to 4.7 percent in May 2016 from 4.8 percent in April 2016, and from 11
5.4 percent in May 2015. The national unemployment rate declined to 4.7 percent in May 2016, down from 4.8 percent in April 2016, and from 5.5 percent in May 2015. Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 12
Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 13
Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single Family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts 17-19. The line represents median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. There was a 2 percent decline in Realtor sales of single family homes for the three counties from May 2015 to May 2016. However, the total of 2,126 was 2 percent higher than the prior month. Lee County reported sales of 1,294 units in May 2016, only 1 unit fewer than May 2015, along with a 5 percent increase in the median price to $225,000. Collier County single-family home sales declined to 396 units in May 2016 from 430 units in May 2015, down 8 percent. Collier s median price increased by 1 percent to $432,000 over the same span. Charlotte County reported 436 single-family homes sold in May 2016, down 4 percent from May 2015; the median price increased by 11 percent to $191,000 over the same period. 14
Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 1600 $250 1400 1200 $200 1000 800 600 $150 $100 400 200 0 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $50 $0 Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 600 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $500 500 400 300 200 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 100 0 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $100 $50 $0 * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 15
Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 20 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The national ICS has declined from 96.1 in June 2015 to 94.7 in May 2016 to 93.5 in June 2016. In the June 24, 2016 issue of Survey of Consumers, it was noted that [c]onsumers were a bit less optimistic in June due to rising concerns about prospects for the economy. While no recession is anticipated, consumers increasingly expect a slower pace of growth in the year ahead. Importantly, the persistent strength in personal finances will keep consumer spending at relatively high levels and support an uninterrupted economic expansion. The June 2016 Florida Consumer Sentiment Index shows little change from 89.8 in June 2015, 90 in May 2016, and 89 in June 2016. While the decline in the sentiment index was marginal, it s worth noting that this is the third straight month of declines, said Christopher McCarty, director of UF s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The national and international context may contribute to further declines over the next few months. As the campaigns for U.S. president get in full swing, it s not unusual to see drops in sentiment as consumers hear negative economic opinions and anticipate what each candidate might do. 16
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index 100 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 50 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Chart 21 shows year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through April 2016. As noted in last month s report, consumer price inflation continues at a moderate level, albeit somewhat higher than one year ago. The April 2016 National CPI was 1.1 percent above the April 2015 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI increased only 0.9 percent over that same 12-month period. Consumer price inflation continues slightly higher in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area, as that index increased by 1.4 percent between April 2015 and April 2016. 17
Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisics As noted last month, Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending April 2016. The largest increases since April 2015 were in medical care (4.1 percent) and housing (2.7 percent). Lower gasoline prices contributed to a 1.6 percent decrease in the transportation segment, while the apparel segment declined by 2.6 percent. 18
Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending April 2016 Medical care Housing Recreation Food and beverages Other goods and services * Education and communication Transportation Apparel * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 Month Percentage Change Appendix: Trends in Regional Population, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Unemployment The data presented in this appendix are not released on a monthly basis. The first two charts, Charts A1 and A2, show historic population growth through 2014, as well as projections updated annually by the state of Florida s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, working in conjunction with the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The second two charts, Charts A3 and A4, depict historic measures of U.S. GDP growth rates and unemployment as well as projections by the Federal Reserve s Federal Open Market Committee. These charts are updated quarterly. Regional Population From 1990 to 2014, regional population growth averaged 2.7 percent per year. The compound average annual rate of growth for 1990 to 2014 was 2.8 percent in Lee County, 3.4 percent in Collier County, 1.7 percent in Charlotte County, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.6 percent in Hendry County. The righthand sections of Charts A1 and A2 show projected population increases from 2015 to 2040. These projected rates of increase are lower than the historic growth rates of 1990 to 2014. The regional projected population growth averages 1.6 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 51 percent for the five-county region from 2014 to 2040, bringing the total to 1,814,478. This represents nearly 609,000 additional residents. Lee County s population is projected to grow an average of 1.9 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at 0.7 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of 0.2 percent per year and Glades County at 0.7 percent per year. 19
Population - Thousands Population - Thousands 1200 Chart A1: Coastal Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 1000 800 600 Lee Historic 2014 653 Projected 2040 1,074 2040 487 400 1990 335 Collier 2014 337 200 1990 152 2040 198 1990 2014 Charlotte 111 164 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 45 Chart A2: Inland Counties Population, 1990 to 2040 Historic and Projected Population Glades and Hendry Counties 40 Hendry 35 30 2014 37.9 2040 40.3 25 20 15 10 1990 25.8 1990 7.6 Historic 2014 12.9 Projected 2040 15.5 5 Glades 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research. 20
Percentage National GDP and Unemployment Charts A3 and A4 depict both historical trends and the Federal Open Market Committee s projections for national Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) and Unemployment. The FOMC s projections are released quarterly and reflect the assessments of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and of Federal Reserve District Bank presidents, with the most recent figures shown in the following charts. The dotted lines depict the highest and lowest projections or the range of all projections while the darker blue area within the dotted lines depict the central tendency forecast within those projections. Consistent with the March forecast, the June forecast indicates slight decreases in projections for GDP growth for the remainder of 2016. While the range is fairly constant, the central tendency forecast falls between slightly above 2 percent growth to slightly below 2 percent growth through 2018, and then decreases in the long run. None of the projections achieve the 3 percent GDP measure that economists generally associate with an economy operating with a full employment of resources. Chart A3 shows the recovery in GDP growth following the most recent recession, and current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 2016, the overall projected range is 1.8 to 2.2 percent with a central tendency range of 1.9 to 2.0 percent. These numbers mark a decline from the 2016 projections announced at the March 2016 meeting. For 2017, the overall projected range is 1.6 to 2.4 percent with a central tendency range of 1.9 to 2.2 percent. For 2018, the overall projected range is 1.5 to 2.2 percent with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2.1 percent. The long-run trend for real GDP has a range of 1.6 to 2.4 percent growth with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2.0 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. 3.0 2.0 1.0 Chart A3: Historic and Projected GDP Growth, 2007 to Long Run U.S. Growth of Real GDP 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.0-1.0-0.3 Range Central Tendency -2.0-3.0-2.8-4.0 Source: Historical data obtained from Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected data obtained from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 15, 2016. 21
Percentage Chart A4 shows the decline in national unemployment following the most recent recession, as well as current projections close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). Consistent with the March forecast, the June forecast projects continued declines in unemployment through 2018, with an average central tendency forecast of 4.6 percent for 2017 and 2018. The Fed s forecast projects rising unemployment in the long run, most likely due to recessionary concerns among some Fed officials. For 2016, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.5 to 4.9 percent with a central tendency range of 4.6 to 4.8 percent. The projections are unchanged from those reported in March. For 2017, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 4.8 percent with a central tendency range of 4.5 to 4.7 percent. For 2018, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.3 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency range of 4.4 to 4.8 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.6 to 5.0 percent with a central tendency of 4.7 to 5.0 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. Chart A4: Historic and Projected Unemployment, 2007 to Long Run 10.0 9.0 U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.6 9.3 8.9 Range Central Tendency 8.0 8.1 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.0 4.0 4.6 Source: Historical data obtained from Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projected data obtained from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 15, 2016. The next quarterly release of projections for GDP and Unemployment will be released following the FOMC meeting scheduled in September. These projections will be updated in the October 2016 edition of Regional Economic Indicators. 22