MEIC PRE-CONFERENCE SURVEY: MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA MARKET ISSUES March 2013
SURVEY RESULTS
POLITICAL STABILITY & GOOD GOVERNANCE WOULD HAVE THE MOST POSITIVE IMPACT ON ECONOMY 60% What do you think would have the most positive impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economy in 2013? (N=188) 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 19% 10% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 0% Political stability and good governance Increased investment in infrastructure Increased investing in SMEs Development of a private sector Improved capital markets regulation Regional economic integration Increased investment in education Other
SAUDI ARABIA AND QATAR LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2013 60% Which of the following countries in the MENA region do you think will experience the strongest economic growth in 2013? (N=187) 50% 40% 34% 33% 30% 23% 20% 10% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
49% PREDICT DECREASED ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES FROM THE ARAB SPRING OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS What do you think the economic impact of the political change occurring from the Arab Spring will be for the MENA region over the next five years? (N=188) No change in economic growth rates 13% Decreased economic growth rates 49% Increased economic growth rates 38%
CHINA TO HAVE THE MOST POSITIVE FOREIGN ECONOMIC INFLUENCE ON THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS 60% Which country or region do you think will have the most positive foreign economic influence on the MENA region over the next five years? (N=188) 50% 46% 40% 30% 24% 20% 10% 0% 12% China United States European Union 9% 3% 2% 3% 0% India Russia Japan Brazil Other
FREEDOM OF LABOUR & CAPITAL AND REGULATORY ALIGNMENT WOULD HELP STIMULATE INVESTMENT 60% 56% Which of the following, if any, do you think would stimulate investment in the MENA region? Select all that apply. (N=188) 50% 47% 40% 34% 30% 20% 19% 10% 11% 11% 4% 0% Freedom of labour and capital across the region Regulatory alignment across the MENA region Creating an economic trading union A single capital market A single currency Other None
57% THINK THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REGULATORS IN 2013 SHOULD BE THE PROTECTION OF INVESTORS What should be the primary focus in 2013 for regulators of securities markets in the MENA region? (N=187) Other 8% Reduction of systemic risk 35% Protection of investors 57%
ONE-QUARTER OF RESPONDENTS THINK EQUITIES ARE THE MOST UNDER-VALUED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS 60% In the MENA region, which of the following, if any, do you think is currently most under-valued (as of February 2013), when looking ahead over the next 12 months? (N=186) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 25% 18% 15% 11% 5% 2% 2% 22% 0% Equities MENA Market Equities GCC Market Equities Real Estate Commodities Corporate bonds Government bonds None of the above
SEVERAL AREAS OF THE INDUSTRY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT IN 2013 60% Which area(s) of the financial services industry in the MENA region, if any, do you think will experience growth in employment opportunities over the next 12 months? Select all that apply. (N=187) 50% 40% 39% 38% 35% 30% 20% 28% 26% 24% 22% 18% 10% 5% 2% 6% 0%
INVESTOR TRUST & CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE WITH IMPROVED CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PRACTICES & TRANSPARENCY OF FINANCIAL REPORTING What do you think would improve investor trust and confidence across markets in the MENA region? Select all that apply. (N=188) Improved corporate governance practices Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved investor education among clients Stronger deterrents to prevent market and investor abuses Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Adoption of a code of ethics and professional conduct for all professionals managing investments Improved auditing practice and standards 47% 46% 46% 46% 43% 41% 70% 70% Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Increased levels of industry knowledge for those working in financial services but outside investment roles Other 1% 30% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
ABOUT THE STUDY Global Market Sentiment Survey 2013 12
ABOUT THIS SURVEY To coincide with the 2013 Middle East Investment Conference held in Dubai on 20-21 March 2013,, in collaboration with member societies in the Middle East, conducted a survey to gather opinions on market issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to raise the profile of members, societies, and and build meaningful dialogue within the region. METHODOLOGY An online survey was conducted from 19 February to 3 March 2013. CFA Institute members, those with charters pending, and June 2013 Level III CFA Program candidates in 11 countries across the Middle East and Northern Africa were invited to participate in the survey, totaling 2,248. 188 responded, for an overall response rate of 8% and a margin of error of ±6.8%. The survey consisted of nine questions in total.
RESPONDENT PROFILE Region COUNTRY UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 41% North Africa 9% SAUDI ARABIA 15% BAHRAIN 9% KUWAIT 9% LEBANON 9% EGYPT 7% JORDAN 4% OMAN 3% QATAR 3% Middle East 91% MOROCCO 2% TUNISIA 1%
RESPONDENT PROFILE Years with the CFA Charter Top Job Functions 6-10 years 9% > 10 years 7% Portfolio Manager Chief-Level Executive 9% 10% 2-5 years 12% Research Analyst 6% < 2 years 17% No Charter 55% Consultant 6% Risk Manager 4% Relationship Manager 4% 0% 10% 20%
ABOUT CFA INSTITUTE is the global association of investment professionals that sets the standard for professional excellence and credentials. The organization is a champion for ethical behavior in investment markets and a respected source of knowledge in the global financial community. The end goal: to create an environment where investors interests come first, markets function at their best, and economies grow. has more than 110,000 members in 138 countries and territories, including over 103,000 CFA charterholders, and 138 member societies. For more information, visit www.cfainstitute.org. QUESTIONS? Media inquiries: Nicole Haroutunian Public Relations Manager nicole.haroutunian@cfainstitute.org Survey inquiries: Melissa Looney Director, Market Intelligence melissa.looney@cfainstitute.org
APPENDIX
QUESTIONNAIRE 1. What do you think would have the most positive impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economy in 2013? [RANDOMIZE] Regional economic integration Development of a private sector Increased investment in education Increased investment in infrastructure Increased investing in SMEs Political stability and good governance Improved capital markets regulation Other (please specify): [text] 2. Which of the following countries in the region do you think will experience the strongest economic growth in 2013? Drop down: Full list of MENA countries 3. What do you think the economic impact of the political change occurring from the Arab Spring will be for the MENA region over the next five years? Increased economic growth rates Decreased economic growth rates No change in economic growth rates Not sure 4. Which country or region do you think will have the most positive foreign economic influence on the MENA region over the next 5 years? [RANDOMIZE] United States China Russia Japan India Brazil European Union Other (please specify): [text] 5. Which of the following, if any, do you think would stimulate investment in the MENA region? Select all that apply [RANDOMIZE] A single capital market
Creating an economic trading union Regulatory alignment across the MENA region A single currency Freedom of labour and capital across the region Other (please specify): [text] [ANCHOR] None [CLEARS ALL OTHER] [ANCHOR] 6. What should be the primary focus in 2013 for regulators of securities markets in the MENA region? [RANDOMIZE] Protection of investors Reduction of systemic risk Other (please specify): [text] 7. In the MENA region, which of the following, if any, do you think is currently most under-valued (as of February 2013), when looking ahead over the next 12 months? [RANDOMIZE] Equities Government bonds Corporate bonds Real Estate Commodities GCC Market Equities MENA Market Equities None of the above [ANCHOR] 8. Which area(s) of the financial services industry in the MENA region, if any, do you think will experience growth in employment opportunities over the next 12 months? Select all that apply [RANDOMIZE] Sovereign Wealth Funds Private Equity Commercial Banking Investment Banking Insurance Real Estate Hedge Funds Asset Management Alternative Asset Management Other (please specify): [text] [ANCHOR]
None [CLEARS ALL OTHER; ANCHOR] 9. What do you think would most improve investor trust and confidence across markets in the MENA region? Select all that apply [RANDOMIZE] Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved corporate governance practices Improved auditing practice and standards Stronger deterrents to prevent market and investor abuses Improved investor education among clients Increased levels of industry knowledge for those working in financial services but outside investment roles Adoption of a code of ethics and professional conduct for all professionals managing investments Other (please specify): [text box] [ANCHOR] Not sure [CLEARS ALL OTHER; ANCHOR]
OPEN-END COMMENTS 1. What do you think would have the most positive impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economy in 2013? (Other-specify) Political stability liquidity and foreign ownership Don't see anything positive Less Imperialist Meddling Increased credit to various sectors clear immigration policy a one year timeframe is completely random Country LEBANON OMAN SAUDI ARABIA 4. Which country or region do you think will have the most positive foreign economic influence on the MENA region over the next five years? (other-specify) Asia Pacific ex Japan None of the above none irrelevant Africa Country BAHRAIN KUWAIT 5. Which of the following, if any, do you think would stimulate investment in the MENA region? Select all that apply. (other-specify) when they stop mixing politics with religion Political Stability its the political stability again for a country like Egypt (also Tunisia, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon). for GCC, it s the government, so oil prices Political stability Decreased government and donor crowding out and participating in markets Transparent regulation that favors foreign capital flows Country BAHRAIN EGYPT EGYPT JORDAN JORDAN KUWAIT
Political stability Stability allowing foreign ownership of capital assets Decreased political risk Freedom of capital aiming for more foreign involvement in the capital markets Reduced Imperialist Meddling Legislative improvements Increased transparency Increase markets transparencies and corporate governance immigration policy Foreign Ownership limits relaxed/removed Foreign Ownership Laws (land, enterprise) End to hostilities KUWAIT LEBANON OMAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA 6. What should be the primary focus in 2013 for regulators of securities markets in the MENA region? (otherspecify) Markets Stability Reduction of restrictions to investment while enforcing equitable rules to all types of investors better corporate governance, BOD authorities and responsibilities corporate disclosure and governance Improved Market Liquidity Refining Regulations Open up some of the closed markets for foreign investments reducing trading costs, enabling easier access for smaller firms Prevent: Derivatives, Short Selling, Margin Trading, Excessive Corporate Debt need more listed securities Issue licenses for IFAs. This will promote portfolio management by individuals which currently is zero. Increase markets efficiencies by allowing free foreign capitals to flow in and out freely Country BAHRAIN EGYPT JORDAN OMAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA
improved governance and transparency implementing the current laws Amending IPO rules to encourage new listings 8. Which area(s) of the financial services industry in the MENA region, if any, do you think will experience growth in employment opportunities over the next 12 months? Select all that apply. (other-specify) Microfinance non-banking Fin. Inst. Private banking Brokerage Country JORDAN SAUDI ARABIA 9. What do you think would improve investor trust and confidence across markets in the MENA region? Select all that apply. (other-specify) Reduced Imperialist Meddling enact ability to conduct hostile takeovers Country Please provide any additional comments related to MENA market issues: MENA stock markets lacks liquidity and suffers from high bid ask spread. Major threat, market instability due to political turmoil making government dysfunction and ineffective to provide for needed favorable environment to support economic growth and social stability of its citizens. low liquidity, deterrence to foreign ownership in the domestic economy, weak regulation and corporate governance, large concentration of ownership by govt. and hence low free float. Move to semi-annual dividend payments to break strong seasonality in markets which should also improve liquidity and investor participation in markets year round. / Lower issuance thresholds for smaller business in debt and equity finance to build a deeper listed securities market, this may involve some disintermediation of the banking sector. / Improved market access by streamlining account processes for international investors. It should take no more than 3 days to establish and begin trading an account if there is a passport system for recognition out of well-established jurisdictions. Country BAHRAIN KUWAIT OMAN QATAR
One possible announcement in the Saudi exchange market (Tadawul) can provide substantial liquidity this year; that is allowing foreign investors to enter the market. Curbing speculation and inclusion of and Qatar to Emerging market indices would improve investor confidence. Predominantly oil economies and those with untapped consumer potential should continue to be attractive for foreign investors (leading among them being Saudi Arabia). Those with limited / diminishing oil reserves but that enjoy strong foreign linkages (such as Qatar and ) will flourish if alternative industry sectors continue to be encouraged and perform well and profitably. Governance is obviously a key issue (the being an exception - which has been hailed for its good governance practices). Investor participation (especially the retail investor's participation) in the equity markets is constrained by a number of factors such as limited knowledge, lack of sufficient public issues, limited marketing of issuances, lackluster performance of some of the stock market heavyweights (which are mostly huge public sector / royal family owned companies) whose ratings and performance are inextricably linked to the strength and fortunes of their respective governments / rulers. More private sector participation is also needed in some of the economies. Political stability, well regulated labor market, protection of human rights, maintaining rule of law, well regulated debt & equity markets, etc. will ensure a sustainable growth in MENA region. need to have more listed companies for equities / MENA region is really plagued by corporate governance issues. Whistle blowers are not only at risk of being isolated, they can be threatened due to political regimes' lack of freedom. Arab spring has just been a step backward. MENA markets are promising region when the political instability resolve, the heavily oil dependent economies might face a challenge with more alternative energy sources are being developed. / Those countries with less oil concentrated economies (especially Arab Spring countries) might offer a good chance to invest for long term. / Political risk is an issue in the meanwhile, but stability in the years to come might reward those who held positions now MENA market has huge potential among local populations. Islamic investments would be of great appeal to this segment of the market. I feel this is an untapped market, which has huge potential. Investor protection and transparency are key SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA