James Butterfill Head of Research and Investment Strategy research@etfsecurities.com 2 May 217 ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Profit taking in precious metals continues Profit taking in precious metals continued with outflow in gold totalling US$113m last week Crude ETP inflows of US$62m as recent oil price weakness seen as a buying opportunity Continued inflows into agri-commodities, potential bargain hunting given recent price weakness Bearish EUR positioning after dovish ECB comments Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals -1 6 Agriculture Livestock Equities Bonds FX -5 Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Crude oil Coffee Silver EM Bonds Global Equity Industrial metals Aluminium Diversified Agriculture Gold Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers Lean Hogs Live Cattle Lead Wheat Palladium JPY Silver Heating Oil Platinum Gasoline -2% -1% % 1% 2% So urce: ETF Securities No te: s ee next page (*) -7-9 -2 5 1 4 64-15-1-5 5 1-4.6-7. -7.1-7.7 8.6 8.5 4.2 3.7 59.4-1 -5 5 1-2.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.4% -5.4% 8.3% 6.3% 5.% 2.7 % 2.6% Profit taking in Precious Metals continued with gold outflows totalling US$113m last week. Following the first round of the French Presidential elections, the worst case in terms of market concerns, a Melenchon/Le Pen second round, was averted. Consequently risk assets rallied and defensive assets sold off, with gold bearing the brunt of this with US$125 of outflows last week. Despite this more bearish position in gold over the week we have seen minor outflows in short gold positions. Silver bucked this trend with inflows of US$8.5m, it remains attractively value relative to gold but in the short-term is vulnerable to a sell-off to as futures positioning highlights alltime-highs in positive sentiment. Crude ETP inflows as recent oil price weakness seen as a buying opportunity. Recent weakness in the oil prices has been seen as a buying opportunity with inflows of US$62m into long position and outflows of US$3m in short positions. Investor flows into crude remain very volatile as investors remain tactical; we typically see outflows when Brent crude reaches US$55/bbl and inflows when it falls close to US$5/bbl. Year-to-date figures highlight that investors remain broadly constructive on further price gains with inflows totalling US$175m. We continue to see oil range bound: expectations that OPEC could announce another production cut at their 25 th May meeting could provide support, however, falling marginal costs in the US tight oil industry and rising oil exports continue to undermine OPEC efforts. Following the presidential election in France there has been surprisingly bearish activity in the EUR. EUR long positions saw outflows of US$13m while EUR short positions inflows of US$9m, suggesting investors have become more bearish, although this maybe due to the more dovish than expected rhetoric from the ECB in Thursday s meeting where an announcement of QE tapering was expected following the positive outcome from the French presidential elections. Much of the more negative views on the EUR were against the USD and the Swiss Franc. We continue to see inflows into agricultural commodities, which we believe is due to bargain hunting given recent price weakness. We saw a 9 th straight week of inflows into Cocoa ETP: US$66mn inflows YTD. Coffee also saw strong inflows las week totalling US$8.6m (1% of ) and US$26m YTD. Note: All flow and data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETP numbers to 21 April 217 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2 ETF Securities ETF Securities Commodity ETP Flow Trends ETP FLOWS (in US$m) ASSETS TOTAL -49.6 116.4 1,351. 3,55.7 22,242 Diversified -7.1-9.7 136.9 43.3 1,168 Precious Metals -16.3-42.9 423.8 2,192.1 15,67 PERFORMANCE (US$) Basket.6 14.5 33.4 157.2 498-2.2% -.6% 8.8% -4.4% Gold -113.5-52.3 477.3 2,36.1 12,523-1.2% 1.7% 9.1% -1.9% Silver 8.5 3.6 13.1 131.6 1,391-3.2% -3.6% 7.% -3.% Platinum.2 4.2 34. 62.4 871-3.4%.6% 4.1% -11.6% Palladium -2.1-13. -134.1-195.2 324 2.6% 3.2% 21.7% 3.6% Energy 64. 77.9 192.1-213.7 1,81 Basket 2.7 4.6-9.1-89. 7 -.7% -3.1% -14.2% -3.7% Crude oil 59.4 75.6 175.4-129.2 1,59 -.7% -3.3% -11.% -4.2% Natural Gas.3-2.7 25.3 5.6 17 2.5%.6% -16.8% 7.2% Heating Oil.2.9 -.1 1.3 4.8-3.2% -4.7% -14.7% -2.4% Gasoline 1.4 -.5.7-2.1 29-5.4% -8.7% -2.% -13.3% Carbon... -.3.7 1.8% -.9% -28.6% -31.3% Industrial Metals -8.8 11.1 161.5 282.5 87 Basket -4.6-2.2 13.5 176.7 344 1.% -3.5% 3.6% 12.6% Aluminium -7. -6.2 5. 13.4 115-1.2% -3.% 11.7% 1.2% Copper 2.8 12.9 47.3 7.5 255 2.2% -2.3% 2.8% 1.9% Nickel -.5 9.5 2.4 25.2 128 1.1% -5.9% -6.5% -2.6% Zinc.1 -.8-12.6-1.9 21 1.5% -5.6% 1.1% 32.% Tin.3-2.2.1-1.7 4.4.8% -1.5% -5.9% 15.8% Lead.1.1-2.3.1 2.9 5.% -4.% 11.3% 21.8% Agriculture 5.4 36.1 112.5 182. 711 Basket -7.7-15.5 -.7-13.7 269.3% -1.3% -4.6% -1.2% Wheat 1.8 6.7 6.8 95.2 151 2.7% -1.7% -.2% -25.9% Corn -2. -4.3 -.6 25.8 6.7% -1.4% -.1% -16.3% Soybeans. 1.6-1.7 5.1 14 -.5% -.1% -7.% -9.8% Cotton -.1 -.7 5.4 3.2 17 -.6%.% 7.5% 17.1% Coffee 8.6 14.9 25.7-6.1 84.4% -5.8% -5.9% -.7% Sugar 2.3 8.1 12. -11.2 37-2.3% -3.8% -17.4% -4.9% Soybean Oil.3.4 -.1.3 3.5-1.4% -1.% -1.1% -9.8% Cocoa 2.2 25. 65.7 83.2 77 -.5% -12.9% -15.3% -43.1% Livestock.2 1..3-1.3 12 Basket..6.7-1.7 2.7 6.9% 8.1% 8.7% 4.9% Lean Hogs.2.4 -.6 -.3 6.2 8.3%.2% -7.% -17.4% Live Cattle...2.7 2.6 6.3% 11.8% 17.3% 19.3% Equities.7 25.3 336.7 581.3 1,178 Global 3.7 35.5 31.6 484.6 714 2.1% 1.7% 8.7% 15.3% US -1.5-4.2 19.1 53.8 112 1.7% 1.2% 7.4% 18.1% Europe -2.3-5.1-1.9 3.6 285 2.4% 1.1% 7.2% 15.4% Asia...3 12.3 33-1.2% -1.5% 2.7% 1.2% Australia.8 -.8 17.6 27.1 34.3 1.1%.8% 5.3% 16.6% Bonds 4.2 11.7 58.9 138.4 434 Global.. -12.6 14.8 81 -.3%.9% 2.3% -.6% Europe.. -5.4-5.9 24.1%.5% -.4%.7% Emerging Markets 4.2 11.7 76.9 129.5 33.1%.9% 6.6% 5.% FX -1.7 6. -71.8-14. 461 G1.4 1.6 4.5 5.7 6.3 USD -.6 2.3-84.9-25.3 339 -.9% -1.3% -3.1% 6.4% CAD..1 -.4-1. 3. -1.% -2.5% -1.9% -7.3% EUR -3.7 -.9-9.6 15.8 332 1.5% 1.1%.6%.1% GBP -.5-5.8 15.1-32.5 15 -.3% 1.9% 1.9% -8.9% CHF -.8-13.6-1.2-4. 13.5 -.8% -.8% -.6% 1.8% NOK. -.5 -.2-1.8 7.7 -.2% -1.5% -2.7% -.1% SEK. 1.2 2. 3.3 9.3.9% -.5% -.3% -4.2% JPY -.1-4.1-9. 11.4 45-2.4% -.4% 3.9% -.8% CNY.. -.3-34.8 3.7 -.2% -.6% -2.5% -3.3% INR.. -.1 -.1.7.5%.5% 3.3% 7.9% AUD -.7 -.2 -.8-2.1 7.8 -.5% -2.8%.5% 1.7% NZD...1.6 1.7-1.6% -1.5% -3.7% 1.9% Commodity FX.1 11.7 19.9 2.1 2.6 (*) All data as at 28 Apr 17, based on ETF Securities global commodity ETP flows and assets. In FX due to being pair trades there is double counting. Price performance is based on NAV data for commodities, indices for Bonds & Equities, Trade weighted indices for FX, Bloomberg
3 ETF Securities Net Cumulative Flows by Asset Classes over the past year Com modities 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Bonds 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Equities 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Currencies 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 All Commodity ETPs Flows Analysis DIVERSIFIED Diversified -7.1-9.7 136.9 43.3 1,168 All Commodities -7.1-11.4 116.9 372.4 1,63 Ex-Energy...1.2 1 Ex-Ags and Liv. 1.8 19.9 3.7 13 Past Month Flows in Diversified ETPs DIVERSIFIED$. -$9.6 All Commodities $. -$11.4 Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock $1.8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Net Cumulative Flows into Diversified Commodities 4 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 45 4 All Commodities 35 3 25 2 15 1 5
4 ETF Securities Energy ETPs Flows Analysis ENERGY Energy 64. 77.9 192.1-213.7 1,81 Energy Basket 2.7 4.6-9.1-89. 7 Crude oil 59.4 75.6 175.4-129.2 1,59 Natural Gas.3-2.7 25.3 5.6 17 Heating Oil.2.9 -.1 1.3 5 Gasoline 1.4 -.5.7-2.1 29 Carbon... -.3 1 Past Month Flows Trends in Energy ETPs ENERGY Energy Basket Crude oil -$.4 -$.1 $78.2 $4.6 $75.7 Natural Gas -$.6 -$2.2 Heating Oil $.8 Gasoline -$.6 $.2 Carbon $. $.1 Net Cumulative Flows into Energy 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% -5-1 -15-2 Crude oil -25-3 -35-4 -45-5 Precious Metals ETPs Flows Analysis PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals -16.3-42.9 423.8 2,192.1 15,67 PM Basket.6 14.5 33.4 157.2 498 Gold -113.5-52.3 477.3 2,36.1 12,523 Silver 8.5 3.6 13.1 131.6 1,391 Platinum.2 4.2 34. 62.4 871 Palladium -2.1-13. -134.1-195.2 324 Past Month Flows in Precious Metals ETPs PRECIOUS METALS -$42.9 PM Basket $14.5 Gold -$52.2 Silver $3.2 $.5 $. Platinum $4.6 Palladium -$13. Net Cumulative Flows into Precious Metals 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 2,5 Gold 2, 1,5 1, 5-5
5 ETF Securities Industrial Metals ETPs Flows Analysis INDUSTRIAL META Industrial Metals -8.8 11.1 161.5 282.5 87 IM Basket -4.6-2.2 13.5 176.7 344 Aluminium -7. -6.2 5. 13.4 115 Copper 2.8 12.9 47.3 7.5 255 Nickel -.5 9.5 2.4 25.2 128 Zinc.1 -.8-12.6-1.9 21 Tin.3-2.2.1-1.7 4 Lead.1.1-2.3.1 3 Past Month Flows in Industrial Metals ETPs INDUSTRIAL METALS -$.9 $11.9 IM Basket Aluminium -$2.3 -$6.2 $.1 Copper Nickel -$.9 -$.1 $13.9 $9.6 Zinc -$1. $.1 Tin -$2.2 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 Net Cumulative Flows into Industrial Metals 6 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 8 7 Copper 6 5 4 3 2 1 Agriculture ETPs Flows Analysis AGRICULTURE Agriculture 5.4 36.1 112.5 182. 711 Agri Basket -7.7-15.5 -.7-13.7 269 Wheat 1.8 6.7 6.8 95.2 151 Corn -2. -4.3 -.6 25.8 6 Soybeans. 1.6-1.7 5.1 14 Cotton -.1 -.7 5.4 3.2 17 Coffee 8.6 14.9 25.7-6.1 84 Sugar 2.3 8.1 12. -11.2 37 Soybean Oil.3.4 -.1.3 3 Cocoa 2.2 25. 65.7 83.2 77 1,5 1,3 1,1 9 7 5 Net Cumulative Flows into Agriculture 3 212 213 214 215 216 217 Past Month Flows in Agricultural ETPs AGRICULTURE -$2.4 $38.5 Agri Basket -$15.5 $. Wheat -$1.2 $7.8 Corn -$4.6 $.3 Soybeans $1. $.6 Cotton -$1.4 $.7 Coffee -$1.1 $16. Sugar Soybean Oil $7.9 $.4 $.2 $.1 Cocoa $. $25. -1% -5% % 5% 1% 9 8 Cocoa 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1
6 ETF Securities Livestock ETPs Flows Analysis LIVESTOCK Livestock.2 1..3-1.3 12 Livestock Basket..6.7-1.7 3 Lean Hogs.2.4 -.6 -.3 6 Live Cattle...2.7 3 Past Month Flows in Livestock ETPs LIVESTOCK $.7 $.3 Livestock Basket $. Lean Hogs $.1 $.3 Live Cattle $. Net Cumulative Flows into Livestock 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 1.5 Live Cattle 1..5. -.5-1. Equity ETPs Flows Analysis EQUITIES Region.7 25.3 336.7 581.3 1,178 Global 3.7 35.5 31.6 484.6 714 US -1.5-4.2 19.1 53.8 112 Europe -2.3-5.1-1.9 3.6 285 Asia...3 12.3 33 Australia.8 -.8 17.6 27.1 34 Themes 1.7 3.3 315.4 515.3 793 Small Cap. -4.2.1 7.7 43 MLP -2. -1. 13.7 23.1 37 Gold Miners.. 11.6 19.2 13 Robo. 23.4 221.7 355.8 455 Cyber 3.7 12.1 68.3 19.6 156 Past Month Flows in Equity ETPs EQUITIES Global US $2.2 $35.5 -$4.2 $5.2 Europe Asia Australia -$1.3 -$.8 $5.2-1% -5% % 5% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Equities 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 212 213 214 215 216 217 4. 35. Robo 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5..
7 ETF Securities Bond ETPs Flows Analysis BONDS Bonds 4.2 11.7 58.9 138.4 434 Global.. -12.6 14.8 81 Europe.. -5.4-5.9 24 Emerging Markets 4.2 11.7 76.9 129.5 33 Government 4.2 11.7 74.1 142.8 364 Corporate.. -15.2-4.4 7 Past Month Flows in Bond ETPs BONDS $11.7 Global Europe Emerging Markets $11.7 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Bonds 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 215 216 217 18 16 Emerging Markets 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Currency ETPs Flows Analysis CURRENCIES FX -1.7 6. -71.8-14. 461 G1.4 1.6 4.5 5.7 6 USD -.6 2.3-84.9-25.3 339 CAD..1 -.4-1. 3 EUR -3.7 -.9-9.6 15.8 332 GBP -.5-5.8 15.1-32.5 15 CHF -.8-13.6-1.2-4. 14 NOK. -.5 -.2-1.8 8 SEK. 1.2 2. 3.3 9 JPY -.1-4.1-9. 11.4 45 CNY.. -.3-34.8 4 INR.. -.1 -.1 1 AUD -.7 -.2 -.8-2.1 8 NZD...1.6 2 Commodity FX.1 11.7 19.9 2.1 21 n.b. Due to each currency being a pair, there is double counting in the flow data 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 Net Cumulative Flows into Currencies 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 G1 USD CAD EUR GBP -$2.1 CHF-$.5 NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX 4. 2.. -2. -4. -6. -8. -1. -12. Past Month Flows in Currency ETPs -$3.4 -$13.1 -$.5 -$.3 -$13.6 -$3.7 $. -$.7 $. $. $.1 $1. $12.7 $1.7 $.1 $1.3 $. -1% -5% % 5% 1% USD -14.
8 ETF Securities Important Information General This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited ( ETFS UK ) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the FCA ). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. 94 ETF Securities (UK) Limited 3 Lombard Street London EC3V 9AA United Kingdom t +44 ()27 448 433 f +44 ()27 448 4366 e info@etfsecurities.com w etfsecurities.com