Article No. 7839 Available on www.roymorgan.com Link to Roy Morgan Profiles Monday, 21 January 2019 Far more Australians expect a troubled than a peaceful 2019 A special Roy Morgan web survey taken in mid-december shows 38% of Australians think 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018 while only 10% expect 2019 will be a more peaceful year. However, most Australians say 2019 will be either the same (47%), and 5% don t know. Although more Australians believe 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018, this is well down from the record high reached at the end of 2002 in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War when 76% of Australians said 2003 would be a more troubled year than 2002. In the same year a record low 2% expected 2003 to be a more peaceful year than 2002. Australians are less concerned about 2019 than their counterparts in New Zealand. Over two-fifths of New Zealanders (42%) believe 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018 while a tenth of New Zealanders (10%) expect 2019 will be a more peaceful year than 2018. See here for more details on the New Zealand results. This special Roy Morgan web survey was in mid-december with a cross-section of 1,028 Next Year Troubled, peaceful or the same? (Australia) Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1982-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question in mid-december 2018: Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018? A.B.N. 91 007 092 944 I Head Office: Tonic House: 386 Flinders Lane, Melbourne Vic 3000 I Telephone: +61 (3) 9629 6888 I www.roymorgan.com
Analysis by Age & Gender Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was in mid-december with a cross-section of 1,028 Australia s men (40%) are more concerned that 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018 than women (35%) while slightly more women (11%) than men (10%) say 2019 will be a more peaceful year than 2018. It turns out expectations that 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018 is heavily correlated to the age of a respondent. Only 32% of 18-24yr old respondents expect 2019 will be a more troubled year than 2018, however this rises with each subsequent age group including 35% of 25-34yr olds, 37% of 35-49yr olds and 43% of those aged 50 years and older. Australians aged 50 years and older are the least hopeful about prospects for peace this year. Only 5% of Australians in this age group say 2019 will be a more peaceful year than 2018. Australia Gender Age Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ NZ % % % % % % % % Troubled 38 40 35 32 35 37 43 42 Same 47 46 48 45 46 47 49 42 Peaceful 10 10 11 12 13 13 5 10 Don t know 5 4 6 11 6 3 3 6 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Analysis by States & Regions Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was in mid-december with a cross-section of 1,028 Analysing by State shows respondents in all States are expecting 2019 will be a more troubled year than a more peaceful year compared to 2018 although many respondents expect 2019 will be the same. It is respondents in Tasmania (44%) and New South Wales (43%) that are the most concerned that 2019 will be a more troubled year compared to around a third of respondents in the other four States. There are also more optimists in Tasmania than any other State with 16% expecting 2019 to be a more peaceful year than 2018 ahead of 13% of Victorian respondents. A majority of respondents in South Australia (65%), Queensland (55%), Victoria (54%) and Western Australia (53%) believe 2019 will be the same as 2019 or don t know. Respondents in the Country (39%) are marginally more concerned about 2019 being a more troubled year than 2018 compared to those in the City (37%). Australia States City/ Country NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS City Country % % % % % % % % % % Troubled 38 43 33 35 37 33 44 37 39 42 Same 47 43 48 52 46 61 36 47 47 42 Peaceful 10 10 13 10 10 2 16 12 8 10 Don t know 5 4 6 3 7 4 4 4 6 6 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 NZ
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says: Although Australians are optimistic that 2019 will be a better year than 2018, far more Australians are also convinced this year will be a more troubled year than last year. Nearly two-fifths of Australians (38%) expect a more troubled year in 2019 compared to only 10% that expect 2019 to be a more peaceful year. However, one shouldn t be surprised by this result, as the historical trend for this question over the last 35 years shows respondents in Australia are (so far at least) always convinced the next year will be a more troubled year rather than a more peaceful year. As such, pessimism about this year shouldn t be a surprise, but it is well down on a record high 76% in late 2002 during the run-up to the Iraq War in early 2003. That pessimism was clearly well grounded in the contemporary reality of the time. A trend which perhaps reflects the innocence of youth is that Australians tend to grow more worried about the future being troubled as they age. Only 32% of 18-24yr olds expect 2019 to be a more troubled year than 2018, but this rises in each age group with a high 43% of Australians aged 50+ believing that this year will be a more troubled year than the last. Most strikingly, only 5% of Australians aged 50+ years old are convinced 2019 will be a more peaceful year than 2018 less than half the results for all three younger age groups. Finding No. 7839 This special Roy Morgan web survey was with a representative crosssection of 1,028 Australians on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or more of the same as 2018? Roy Morgan - Enquiries Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309 askroymorgan@roymorgan.com Next Year Troubled, peaceful or the same? (Australia) Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or more of the same as 2018? 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 % % % % % % % % % Troubled 39 58 49 41 34 46 23 28 61 Same 51 37 44 50 58 45 59 51 33 Peaceful 10 5 7 9 8 9 18 21 6 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996* 1997 1998 1999 % % % % % % % % % Troubled 33 41 29 29 28 n/a 35 43 40 Same 53 49 59 59 60 n/a 58 47 50 Peaceful 14 10 12 12 12 n/a 7 10 10 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2018 % % % % % % % % % % % Troubled 39 53 76 45 41 51 44 35 32 35 38 Same 46 34 21 47 51 42 45 56 56 56 47 Peaceful 8 10 2 6 6 4 7 5 10 7 10 Don t know 7 3 1 2 2 3 4 4 2 2 5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 *This survey wasn t in 1996 and between 2010-2017.
About Roy Morgan Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 75 years experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. Sample Size Percentage Estimate 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2