Company update Korea / Construction & 26 September 212 BUY 목표주가 현재주가 (25 Sep 12) 22, 원 189,5 원 Upside/downside (%) 16.1 KOSPI 1991.41 시가총액 ( 십억원 ) 7,58 52 주최저 / 최고 166,5-255,5 일평균거래대금 ( 십억원 ) 3.9 외국인지분율 (%) 4.31 () 모멘텀회복에대한기대 과현대중공업이하반기메이저프로젝트인 UAE Upper Zakum phase II 프로젝트수주에근접한것으로알려짐 (MEED 9/25). 총사업비가 42 억불에이르는대형프로젝트로수주성공시금액은 2 억달러에이를것으로예상. 동프로젝트수주성공시의신규수주누계액은 11.7 조원으로연간수주목표 16 조원의 73% 를달성하게됨. 21 년하반기부터마진하락에대한우려가증대되었으나, Upper Zakum 등공종및시장다변화노력감안시 214 년이후마진안정화예상. 올해대형건설사중수주목표달성가능성이가장높을뿐만아니라가시화되고있는공종및지역다각화감안하여투자의견 BUY 및목표주가 22, 원유지. Forecast earnings & valuation Fiscal year ending Dec-11A Dec-12E Dec-13E Dec-14E 매출액 ( 십억원 ) 9,298 11,316 13,381 15,597 영업이익 ( 십억원 ) 717.3 752.6 872.9 11.2 당기순이익 ( 십억원 ) 514.5 567.3 663.9 766.7 수정순이익 ( 십억원 ) 513.3 567.7 663.9 766.7 EPS ( 원 ) 12,832 14,192 16,598 19,168 EPS 성장률 (%) 44.6 1.6 17. 15.5 P/E (x) 15.7 13.4 11.4 9.9 EV/EBITDA (x)..2.1.1 배당수익률 (%) 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 P/B (x) 6. 4.2 3.2 2.5 ROE (%) 38. 31.3 28.2 25.7 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) 3.4 8.8 6.8 5.3 Performance KRW 252, 232, 212, 192, 172, 152, Price(LHS) Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 KOSPI(RHS) 96% 86% 76% 66% Performance 1M 3M 12M 절대수익률 (%) 2.7 8.3 (14.8) KOSPI 대비상대수익률 (%) (1.) (.8) (32.2) UAE Upper Zakum 수주현대중공업과경쟁과현대중공업이하반기메이저프로젝트인 UAE Upper Zakum phase II 프로젝트수주에근접한것으로알려짐 (MEED 9/25). 총사업비가 42 억불에이르는대형프로젝트로수주성공시금액은 2 억달러에이를것으로예상. 당초 FEED 제공업체인 Technip 컨소시엄 (Technip + NPCC) 이다소유리할것으로예상되었으나, ( 단독입찰 ) 과현대중공업컨소시엄 ( 현대중공업 + KBR) 이가장경쟁력있는가격을제출한것으로판단. 최종수주업체선정은 1 월이내에이루어질것으로전망. 동프로젝트수주시연간수주목표달성가능성증대동프로젝트수주성공시의신규수주누계액은 11.7 조원으로연간수주목표 16 조원의 73% 를달성하게됨. 특히 4 사분기에는이참여하고있는사우디 Luberef refinery(1 억달러 ), 사우디 Rajhi 철강프로젝트 (3 억달러 ), 이라크 Zubair 가스전프로젝트 (15 억달러 ) 등총 55 억달러규모의발주가있을예정. 특히발주가지연되고있는사우디얀부 III 발전소 (3 억달러 ) 가계약될경우올해 15.3 조원의수주예상치달성가능성은높아질것으로판단. 214 년부터마진안정화기대상반기예상보다높은매출시현으로하반기매출둔화에대한우려가있으나, 213 년부터는다시외형성장세지속예상. 212 년과 213 년수주를각각 15.3 조원과 18.3 조원으로전망할경우매출액은 212 년 11.3 조원에서 213 년 13.4 조원으로 18.2% 증가할전망. 하지만전반적인수주환경악화추이감안시 213 년수주및매출전망다소감소할가능성존재. 하지만이라크시장, off-shore 시장, 미국시장진출등시장및공종다각화에힘입어세전이익율은 213 년에 6.5% 로 (212 년 6.6% 예상 ) 바닥확인할전망. 투자의견 BUY 유지 변성진, Analyst 3774 1457 sjbyun@miraeasset.com 김정환 3774 1782 jeffkim@miraeasset.com 21 년하반기부터마진하락에대한우려가증대되었으나, Upper Zakum 등공종및시장다변화노력감안시 214 년이후마진안정화예상. 올해대형건설사중수주목표달성가능성이가장높을뿐만아니라가시화되고있는공종및지역다각화감안하여투자의견 BUY 및목표주가 22, 원유지. See the last page of this report for important disclosures
Figure 1 Samsung s major project list - 1 ZADCO - Upper Zakum Full Field: Early Production Facility: Onshore: EPC 2 Luberef - Yanbu Refinery Expansion ADMA-OPCO - Umm Al Lulu Field Development: Full Field Development: Package I ADMA-OPCO - Umm Al Lulu Field Development: Full Field Development: Package II Sector Oil / Gas Production Refining Oil / Gas Production Oil / Gas Production Country UAE Saudi Arabia UAE UAE Zakum Development Company (ZADCO) Saudi Aramco Lubricating Oil Refining Co (Luberef) Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (Adma-Opco) Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company (Adma-Opco) Budget value (US$ m) 4,2 1, 5 65 Project start 1-12-212 1-12-12 1-2-213 1-3-213 Completion date 1-7-215 1-1-16 1-1-218 1-1-218 Project status Main Contract Bid Main Contract Bid Main Contract Bid Main Contract Bid EPC contract Bidders List Hyundai Heavy Industries/KBR, Technip /NPCC, JGC/Daewoo & Construction, Petrofac/Daewoo Shipbuilding & Daewoo & Limited, Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), J Ray McDermott, JGC Corporation, (NPCC), Petrofac Limited, Saipem SpA, Swiber Offshore Construction Pte Limite Hyundai E&C, Saipem SpA, Tecnicas Reunidas Chiyoda Corporation, CTCI Corporation, Daelim, GS E&C, Hyundai E&C, JGC Corporation, Petrofac Limited, Saipem SpA, SK E&C, Tecnicas Reunidas Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), J Ray McDermott, (NPCC), Samsung J Ray McDermott, L&T, Leighton Offshore Pte Ltd, (NPCC), Saipem SpA, Technip France Daewoo Shipbuilding & Company Limited, Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), Saipem SpA, Samsung, Technip Daewoo Shipbuilding & Company Limited, Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), J Ray McDermott, L&T, (NPCC), Saipem SpA, Technip Figure 2 Samsung s major project list - 2 Al Rajhi Steel Industries - King Abdullah Economic City: Steel Plant SEC - Rabigh 2 IPP SEC - Shuqaiq Power Plant Sector Metal Power Power Country Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Al Rajhi Steel Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) Budget value (US$ m) 3, 1,8 2, Project start 1-11-212 1-2-213 1-2-213 Completion date 1-1-215 1-4-217 1-12-215 Project status Main Contract Bid Main Contract Bid Main Contract Bid EPC contract Bidders List Daelim, Hyundai & Construction, Samsung ACWA Power, Adani Power Limited (APL), GD Power Development Company Ltd, GDF Suez Daelim, Hanwha E&C, Hyundai Development, General Electric (GE), & Construction, International Power PLC, Jindal Petrofac Emirates, Samsung Power Limited, Samsung Engieering Korea Electric Power Corporation, Marubeni Corporation, Mitsui & Co, SembCorp Engineers 2 2
Figure 3 Samsung s major project list - 3 Package I Package II Sector Refining Refining Refining Country Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Company Kuwait Company MAA Package Kuwait Company Budget value (US$ m) 6, 6, 6, Project start 1-1-213 1-1-213 1-1-213 Completion date 1-12-218 1-12-218 1-12-218 Project status Main Contract PQ Main Contract PQ Main Contract PQ EPC contract Bidders List Figure 4 Samsung s major project list - 4 Project: Package 1 (Process Plant) Project: Package 2 (Process Plant) Project: Package 3 (Utilities & Offsites) Project: Package 4 (Tankage) Sector Refining Refining Refining Oil / Gas Production Country Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Company Kuwait Company Kuwait Company Kuwait Company Budget value (US$ m) 4, 3,5 4, 1,5 Project start 1-1-213 1-1-213 1-1-213 1-1-213 Completion date 1-12-217 1-12-217 1-12-217 1-12-217 Project status Main Contract PQ Main Contract PQ Main Contract PQ Main Contract PQ EPC contract Bidders List Figure 5 P/E band chart Figure 6 P/B band chart (KRW) (KRW) 4, 45, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 21.x 16.8x 12.5x 8.3x 4.x 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 7.2x 5.9x 4.6x 3.3x 2.x 28 29 21 211 212 28 29 21 211 212 자료 : Quantiwise, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 자료 : Quantiwise, 미래에셋증권리서치센터 3 3
Summary financial statements 손익계산서 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 211A 212E 213E 214E 매출액 9,298 11,316 13,381 15,597 매출원가 (8,219) (1,77) (11,947) (13,922) 매출총이익 1,79 1,238 1,433 1,675 판매비와관리비 (46) (533) (6) (75) 영업이익 ( 조정 ) 619 76 833 97 영업이익 717 753 873 1,1 순이자손익 28 69 38 4 지분법손익 1 1 1 기타 689 682 833 969 세전계속사업손익 687 743 876 1,11 법인세비용 (172) (176) (212) (245) 당기순이익 515 567 664 767 당기순이익 ( 지배주주지분 ) 513 568 664 767 EPS ( 원 ) 12,863 14,183 16,598 19,168 EPS ( 지배주주지분, 원 ) 12,832 14,192 16,598 19,168 대차대조표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 211A 212E 213E 214E 유동자산 4,157 4,48 5,277 6,168 현금및현금성자산 56 556 571 656 단기금융자산 192 17 177 185 매출채권 2,723 2,965 3,776 4,538 재고자산 기타유동자산 682 716 752 789 비유동자산 1,32 1,462 1,555 1,622 유형자산 7 886 895 852 투자자산 63 258 292 361 기타비유동자산 34 29 24 2 자산총계 5,189 5,87 6,832 7,79 유동부채 3,645 3,79 4,196 4,515 매입채무 3,417 3,446 3,85 4,168 단기금융부채 43 157 157 157 기타유동부채 185 187 189 19 비유동부채 23 294 36 319 증가율 & 마진 (%) 211A 212E 213E 214E 매출액증가율 78.2 21.7 18.2 16.6 매출총이익증가율 34.6 14.8 15.7 16.9 영업이익증가율 65.8 4.9 16. 15.7 당기순이익증가율 45. 1.3 17. 15.5 EPS 증가율 45. 1.3 17. 15.5 매출총이익율 11.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 장기금융부채 2 1 1 1 기타비유동부채 228 293 35 318 부채총계 3,875 4,84 4,52 4,834 지배주주지분 1,351 1,812 2,356 2,983 비지배주주지분 (37) (26) (26) (26) 자본총계 1,313 1,786 2,33 2,957 BVPS ( 원 ) 33,766 45,39 58,96 74,574 영업이익률 7.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 당기순이익률 5.5 5. 5. 4.9 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 현금흐름표 12 월결산 ( 십억원 ) 211A 212E 213E 214E 영업현금 175 327 299 362 당기순이익 515 567 664 767 유무형자산상각비 38 59 65 64 기타 16 48 11 11 운전자본증감 (483) (348) (441) (48) 투자현금 91 (458) (164) (137) 주요투자지표 12 월결산 211A 212E 213E 214E 자기자본이익률 (%) 38. 31.3 28.2 25.7 총자산이익률 (%) 12.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 매출채권회수기간 ( 일 ) 17 95.7 13 16 매입채무결재기간 ( 일 ) 134 111 15 97.5 순차입금 / 자기자본 (%) 143 116 14 94.7 이자보상배율 (x) (37.3) 25.8 4.2 5.4 자본적지출 (267) (235) (69) (16) 기타 (1,248) (1) (742) (746) 재무현금 (18) 129 (12) (14) 배당금 92 12 14 자본의증가 ( 감소 ) (92) (12) (14) 부채의증가 ( 감소 ) (16) 129 기초현금 49 56 556 571 기말현금 56 556 571 656 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 자료 : 미래에셋증권리서치센터추정치 4 4
Recommendations 종목별투자의견 (12 개월기준 ) BUY : 현주가대비목표주가 +1% 초과 Hold : 현주가대비목표주가 ±1% 이내 Reduce : 현주가대비목표주가 1% 초과단, 업종투자의견에의한 ±1% 내의조정치감안가능 업종별투자의견 Overweight : 현업종지수대비 +1% 초과 Neutral : 현업종지수대비 ±1% 이내 Underweight : 현업종지수대비 1% 초과 Compliance Notice 본자료는투자자의증권투자를돕기위하여당사고객에한하여배포되는자료로서어떠한경우에도복사되거나대여될수없습니다. 본조사자료에수록된내용은당사리서치센터가신뢰할만한자료및정보로부터얻어진것이나당사는그정확성이나완전성을보장할수없습니다. 따라서, 어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의증권투자의결과에대한법적책임소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 동자료는기관투자가또는제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 자료에게재된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인함. 작성자 : 변성진, 김정환 담당자보유주식수종목담당자종류수량취득가취득일 1% 이상보유여부 유가증권종목 계열사담당자 자사주종류 REMARK:Korean analyst is only responsible for Korean securities and relevant sectors only. Target Price and Recommendation Chart Stock Price & Target Price Trend Stock Price Target Price B - Buy H - Hold R - Reduce 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 B B H Aug-8 Feb-9 Aug-9 Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Samsung () Date Recommendation 12m target price 29-9-28 BUY 117, 29-1-21 BUY 152,(UP) 29-1-28 BUY 152, 29-11-9 BUY 152, 29-11-27 BUY 152, 29-12-29 BUY 152, 21-4-25 BUY 142,(Change) 21-5-3 HOLD 121,(Change) 21-1-27 BUY 195,(UP) 211-1-11 BUY 225,(UP) 211-3-1 BUY 225, 211-3-18 BUY 225, 211-4-12 BUY 3,(UP) 212-1-4 BUY 3, 212-2-1 BUY 275,(Change) 212-3-5 BUY 275, 212-3-6 BUY 275, 212-4-19 BUY 262,(Change) 212-6-4 BUY 245,(Change) 212-7-17 BUY 22,(Change) 212-9-26 BUY 22, 5 5