A S I A P A C I F I C VIETNAM OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEW NORMAL
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 2
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 1. VIETNAM ECONOMY 3
E N V I R O N M E N T A L I S S U E S C H A L L E N G E S F R O M D R O U G H T, F L O O D A N D O T H E R S More than 200 tons of died fish collected in Westlake, Hanoi 4
U R B A N M I G R A T I O N A N D I T S N E T E F F E C T 159,501 Passenger Cars Sold in 2016 (up 36% y-o-y) 3,121,023 Motorbikes Sold in 2016 (up 9.5% y-o-y) 8,000 motorbikes/day 5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 2016 G D P G R O W T H L O W E R T H A N E X P E C T E D S T I L L A M O N G R E G I O N S S T R O N G E S T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 6.21% Forecast Source: GSO, Oxford Economics 2016. 6
Interest rate (%) INFLATION PICKS UP WHILE INTEREST RATES STAYED LOW 25 20 15 Average CPI: 2.7% y-o-y Basic Inflation: 1.83% y-o-y 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: GSO, CBRE Vietnam. Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate 7
Index M A J O R A S S E T C L A S S E S 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: HNC, Gold.org, SJC, SBV. 2014 2015 2016 Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil 8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Registered FDI (US$ Billions) F D I R E A C H E D 8 - Y E A R H I G H Vietnam Registered FDI in 2016: US$24.4 billion Major Real Estate Deals, 2016 80 60 40 20-24 1 2 US$315m US$309m Industrial Park - Quang Ninh Township - Dong Nai Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment. Real estate accounts for 7% of registered FDI, ranks 2 nd among sectors 3 US$300m 21-storey building - Hanoi 9
R E A L E S T A T E D A S H B O A R D ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current CPI (%) y-o-y 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 4.7 Trade balance (US$, bil) Retail & services Turnover (VND, tril) (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) 273.3 294.7 295.8 294.4 302.9 320.2 VN-Index 576.1 545.3 652.2 682.3 663.5 681.3 USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,458 21,881 21,862 22,156 22,156 22,161 Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.4 32.8 36.8 35.8 36.1 36.7 Lending Rate (%)* 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4% Deposit rate (%)** (1-year term) 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% Source: GSO, Dec, 2016 Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, Jan, 2017 REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current Real Estate Holding & Development Listed Companies Real Estate Services Listed Companies Source: Stockbiz, Jan 2017 48.60 45.22 51.00 47.24 45.63 46.55 52.8 41.3 28.3 30.89 26.98 27.06 HCMC New launches (unit) 70,902 37,278 21,088 11,926 6,272 3,957 HN New launches (unit) 45,921 25,485 17,460 10,409 5,712 2,712 Source: CBRE, Dec 2016 (*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only. (**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards. 10
Percentage change Percentage change B C I N U M B E R S PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION, Y-O-Y CHANGE ALL FUTURE PROJECTS (2016 2030), Y-O-Y CHANGE 300% 2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015 300% 2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015 100% 100% -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong Projects Under Constructio n HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong Office 142 161 27 20 13 16 29 Retail 100 81 47 2 14 6 8 Hospitality and SA 35 16 55 4 35 10 3 Residential 286 105 22 8 23 13 8 Total 563 363 151 34 85 45 48 Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. All Future Projects (2017-2030) HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong Office 253 247 53 33 20 36 47 Retail 164 132 66 5 22 11 11 Hospitality and SA 60 31 76 4 56 17 6 Residential 404 188 42 13 13 22 10 Total 881 598 237 55 111 86 74 Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. 11
T H E M A I N N E W F O C U S E S A N Y T H I N G B U T T P P Forget TPP, The Focus is now on RCEP 12
T H E O N E B I G M A N U F A C T U R E R Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016 Taiwan 1,860 China 1,875 Singapore Japan South Korea 2,419 2,590 7,036 9.3% y-o-y US$ 36.4 billion Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment. 13
T H A T O N E B I G D E V E L O P E R 14
H C M C 2 0 G O L D E N S I T E S 2 C O M P L E T E D, 4 U N D E R C O N S T R U C T I O N 16 SJC 14 8 13 4 12 6 5 17 7 VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER VINCOM CENTER DONG KHOI 2 19 18 1 3 20 SAIGON MELINH TOWER 9 15 11 THE SPIRIT OF SAIGON UNION SQUARE 15
WALKABOUT IN HCMC BUSY CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN DISTRICT 1 AND DISTRICT 3 Only 2 Grade A 45 projects found on 24 streets in District 3 3 Others 10 Unknown 2 Hotels 8 Private Use 2 SAs 2 Residential 18 Offices 95 projects found on 132 streets in District 1 15 Cleared Sites 7 Hotels 33 Offices 2 Retail 5 Public Projects 6 Residential 16
Food & Drug Stores Telecommunications Apparel Transportation Chemical Technology Energy Engineering & Construction Household products Business Service Motor Vehicles & Parts Retailing Wholesalers Finance Health Care Industrials Food, Beverages & Tobacco Hotels, Restaurants & Aeorospaces & Defense Materials Media No. of companies FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 FORTUNE COMPANIES IN VIETNAM 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 218 companies in 2015 230 companies in 2016 2015 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam. 17
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 2. INFRASTRUCTURE 18
INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S Retail Office Amenities P Parking 1 2 3 4 5 6 Under construction Under planning 19
INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION THE EIGHT METRO LINES OF HANOI D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S Retail 3 Office Amenities P Parking 2 Under Construction Metro Line Under Planning Metro Line 20
MEANWHILE IN BANGKOK 21
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 3. CONDOMINIUM 22
OVERSUPPLY CONCERN Hot launches near Thu Thiem FOREIGN BUYERS AT CBRE 147 deals closed from July 2015 up to December 2016 Some projects in Thao Dien already reached the 30% threshold of foreign buyers Main groups of foreign buyers in 2016: Singapore: 18% Japan/Hong Kong/Europe: 16% each 23
No. of unit No. of unit N E W L A U N C H D E C R E A S E Y - O - Y B U T H I G H E R O N 1 0 - Y R A V E R A G E HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR 50,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable HCMC - 2016 HANOI - 2016 30,028 units 13% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016 37,419 units 10% y-o-y y-o-y 24
M I D - E N D S E G M E N T E X P A N D I N G E A S I N G H I G H - E N D O V E R S U P P LY F E A R HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN 100% 100% 80% 80% 36% 40% 60% 36% 40% 47% 60% 42% 56% 40% 40% 51% 20% 20% 0% 2014 2015 2016 Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 0% 2014 2015 2016 Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Luxury: >US$3,500 per sm High-end: US$1,500 to US$3,500 per sm Mid-end: US$800 to $1,500 per sm Affordable: US$800 per sm 25
N EW LAUNCH REMAINS STRONG IN DECENTRALIZED D I STRICTS H C M C : E A S T A N D S O U T H H A N O I : W E S T A N D S O U T H W E S T North 7% West 11% Central 8% East 41% West 37% North 4% Midtown 7% CBD 1% East 10% CBD fringe 6% South 34% South West 24% South 12% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 26
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F New launch supply (units) New launch supply (units) L O W E R S E G M E N T S I N T H E L I M E L I G H T F O R T H E N E X T 3 Y E A R S HCMC - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST HANOI - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST 50,000 Forecast 50,000 Forecast 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 0 - Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016 27
S A L E S D E C R E A S E Y - O - Y B U T I S C AT C H I N G U P F A S T W I T H N E W L A U N C H NEW SALES 2016 HCMC HANOI 35,008 units 21,188 units 4% y-o-y 2% y-o-y TOTAL SOLD UNITS (*) NEW LAUNCH (%) HCMC 2016: 94% 2015: 88% HANOI 2016: 69% 2015: 64% (*) Total sold units include both units sold at newly-launched projects in the period and at previously-launched projects Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016 28
No. of sold units No. of sold units S A L E S M O M E N T U M R E M A I N S U P B E A T HCMC - SOLD UNITS BY YEAR HANOI SOLD UNITS BY YEAR 45,000 Forecast 45,000 Forecast 40,000 40,000 35,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F2018F2019F 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016 29
H C M C : H I G H S A L E S R A T E S I N D I S T R I C T 2, 9 A N D N H A B E ~68.6% of new launches sold in 2016 Implication for districts only, not exact project location No. of Project 1 4 4 6 3 9 7 9 3 3 5 14 11 3 2 9 1 Sales rate (%) 88% 69% 48% 48% 32% 73% 53% 57% 42% 72% 53% 62% 70% 65% 42% 50% 44% 30
H I G H S A L E S R A T E S I N B A D I N H, H A I B A T R U N G D I S T R I C T S ~64% of new launch in 2016 sold No. of Projects Sales rate (%) 5 62% 2 82% 5 69% 2 62% 5 86% 3 76% 13 75% 13 65% 8 48% Implication for districts only, not exact project location 7 53% 31
Percentage change (%) Percentage change (%) P R I M A R Y P R I C I N G U P A C R O S S S E G M E N T S 200% 150% 100% 50% HCMC - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST Forecast 0% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable HANOI - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Note: (1) Base year is 2005 (2) No luxury projects in Hanoi until 2011. 32
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 4. OFFICE 33
A P A C O F F I C E R E N T A L C Y C L E Shanghai Shenzhen Auckland Bangkok Taipei Tokyo Beijing Hong Kong New Delhi Melbourne Sydney Hanoi Perth Seoul Singapore Brisbane Guangzhou Ho Chi Minh City Mumbai Bangalore Tenant - Driven Landlord Driven Source: CBRE Research, January 2017. 34
Sydney Bangalore Melbourne Bangkok Guangzhou Gurgaon Auckland Tokyo Brisbane Mumbai Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Taipei Delhi Seoul Hong Kong Grade A Effective Rental Growth (%) Shanghai Shenzhen Perth Beijing Jakarta Singapore W E A K E R R E N T A L G R O W T H I S E X P E C T E D 30 25 Bottoming Out Peaking 2016F 2017F 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Source: CBRE Research, January 2017. 35
V A C A N C Y T R E N D S D I F F E R HCMC Rents Hanoi Grade A Grade B Grade A Grade B Rents US$36 US$21 US$28 US$18 1.9% y-o-y 6.2% y-o-y 2.9% y-o-y 0.6% y-o-y Vacancy rate (%) Vacancy rate (%) 8.0% 2.8% 15.8% 16.5% 3.3 ppts y-o-y 1.6 ppts y-o-y 3.3 ppts y-o-y 5.6 ppts y-o-y Rent: US$/sm/month, excludes VAT and Service charge Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 36
Total Supply (NLA, sm) Total Supply (NLA, sm) S U P P L Y G R O W T H F A S T E R I N H A N O I HCMC - TOTAL SUPPLY HANOI - TOTAL SUPPLY 1,200,000 1,200,000 900,000 900,000 600,000 600,000 300,000 300,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grade A Grade B 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grade A Grade B 321,557 sm 758,280 sm 415,355 sm 774,792 sm Grade A: +7.7% Grade B: y-o-y +1.5% y-o-y Grade A: +14% Grade B: y-o-y +5% y-o-y Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 37
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F New Supply (NLA, sm) New Supply (sm, NLA) No New Supply B U T H C M C S T A R T E D T O C A T C H U P HCMC - NEW SUPPLY FORECAST HANOI NEW SUPPLY FORECAST 250,000 200,000 Forecast 250,000 200,000 Forecast 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 Grade A Grade B Grade A Grade B Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 38
Net absorption (NLA, sm) Net Absorption (NLA, sm) N E T A B S O R P T I O N L A G S B E H I N D 2 0 1 5 HCMC Net Absorption 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 HANOI Net Absorption 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B 39
Asking rents (US$ psm pm) Asking rents (US$ psm pm) M O D E R A T E R E N T A L G R O W T H I N H C M C W H I L E R AT E S A R E S TA B I L I Z I N G I N H A N O I HCMC - ASKING RENTS HANOI - ASKING RENTS 50 40 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grade A Grade B Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grade A Grade B US$36.6 Grade A: +1.9% Grade B: y-o-y US$21.0 +6.2% y-o-y US$ 28.5 Grade A: -2.9% Grade B: y-o-y US$ 17.8 +0.6% y-o-y 40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Rente (US$ psm pm) Vacancy Rate (%) Rents (US$ psm pm) Vacancy rates (%) S T I L L L A R G E L Y A T A L E O F T W O C I T I E S L I M I T E D R E N TA L G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S HCMC PERFORMANCE FORECAST HANOI PERFORMANCE FORECAST 50 Forecast 50% 50 Forecast 50% 40 40% 40 40% 30 30% 30 30% 20 20% 20 20% 10 10% 10 10% 0 0% 0 0% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. The presented rents are rents of Q4 of each respected year. Grade A Rents Grade A Vacancy Grade B Rents Grade B Vacancy 41
D I S R U P T I V E T E C H & E N T R E N E U R S H I P P R O P T E C H, R E T E C H, C O -W O R K I N G S PA C E 42
O P P O R T U N I T I E S A B O U N D F O R T H E M A R K E T Decentralization Flight to Quality Diversified Demand Supply Growth Limited space in CBD: Rental growth for CBD buildings Certain winners in Midtown and West Big occupiers to relocate and expand to higher quality buildings High demand from traditional sectors Start-ups boom: Growth of Co-working space New supply coming from CBD and Non- CBD area to meet strong market demand Hanoi Hanoi & HCMC HCMC 43
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 5. RETAIL 44
Supply (NLA, sm) Supply (NLA, sm) R E T A I L S U P P L Y G R O W T H A C C E L E R A T I N G I N B O T H C I T I E S HCMC HANOI 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 300,000 200,000 100,000 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 45
R O B U S T N E W S U P P L Y I N A N D O U T O F H C M C CBD 26,000 sm NLA Expected 2018 40,000 sm GFA Expected 2017 35,000 sm GFA Expected 2020 48,000 sm GFA Expected 2018 53,000 sm GFA Opened Q1 2016 32,000 sm GFA Opened Q2 2016 28,000 sm GFA Opened Q1 2016 50,000 sm GFA Opened Q3 2016 114,000 sm GFA Opened Q3 2016 59,000 sm NLA Expected 2017 2017-2020 Completion (E) 2016 Opening 46
R E T A I L S U P P L Y I S F U R T H E R D E C E N T R A L I Z E D I N H A N O I TAY HO DONG ANH 91,000 sm GFA Expected 2019 TU LIEM 15,365 sm GFA Expected 2017 CAU GIAY BA DINH WEST LAKE HOAN KIEM LONG BIEN 24,000 sm GFA Opened Q3 2016 27,000 sm GFA Opened Q4 2016 26,850 sm GFA Opened Q4 2016 41,450 sm GFA Expected 2017 DONG DA HAI BA TRUNG HOAI DUC 180,000 sm GFA Expected 2018 THANH XUAN GIA LAM 53,864 sm GFA Expected 2018 HOANG MAI 2017-2019 Completion (E) 18,900 sm GFA Expected 2017 HA DONG THANH TRI 2016 Opening 47
P L A C E M A K I N G M A D E I T S W A Y T O V I E T N A M T R A D I T I O N A L V A L U E S W I T H A C R E AT I V E T O U C H R E TA I L E R S D E M A N D PLACEMAKING IS ABOUT CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT PEOPLE WANT TO VISIT AND RETURN TO Luxury F&B Fast Fashion ASIA PACIFIC VIETNAM Sport Entertainment Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. 48
E-commerce Revenue (USD billion) CAGR 2015-2020 C H A N G I N G D I G I T A L L A N D S C A P E I N V I E T N A M E - C O M M E R C E : F U T U R E T R E N D? 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 9% Hong Kong 36% Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, 2016 37% 19% 8% India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand 22% 12% 5% 19% 19% 29% Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia- Pacific 2015 E-commerce Revenue CAGR 2015-2020 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 49
Asking Rent (US$/sm/month) Asking Rent (US$/sm/month) R E N T A L G R O W T H L I M I T E D T O CBD M A L L S CBD Non-CBD CBD Non-CBD HCMC 15.1% y-o-y -4.4% y-o-y HANOI 2% y-o-y -5.9% y-o-y 150 150 120 120 90 90 60 30 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CBD Non-CBD Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. (US$ per NLA sm on ground and first floor, excl. tax and service charge) 60 30 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CBD Non-CBD 50
Rent (US$/sm/month) Vacancy Rate (%) Rent (US$/sm/month) Vacancy Rate (%) R E N T A L R A T E S T O S T A B I L I Z E A M I D S T F U R T H E R S U P P L Y 80 Forecast 30% HCMC 60 40 20 20% 10% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 0% HANOI 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Rent Vacancy 51
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 6. LOGISTICS 52
M O R E Q UA L I T Y S U P P LY Local Foreigner RISING DEMAND FROM E-COMMERCE AND HI-TECH SECTORS E-commerce Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Electronics Automobile & Motorcycle 53
NFA ('000 sqm) Vacancy Rate NFA ('000 sqm) Vacancy Rate M O V I N G U P T H E V A L U E C H A I N M O R E Q U A L I T Y S U P P LY 200 160 120 80 40 0 Warehouse - New supply and vacancy rate Forecast 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0% Ready-built-factory - New supply and vacancy rate 200 160 120 80 40 0 Forecast 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0% New Supply - South Vacancy Rate - South New Supply - North Vacancy Rate - North New Supply - South Vacancy Rate - South New Supply - North Vacancy Rate - North Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen 54
Rental rate (US$/sm/month) % Growth Y-o-Y Rental rate (US$/sm/month) % Growth Y-o-Y M O D E S T R E N T A L G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S Warehouse - rental rate Ready-built-factory - rental rate 5 Forecast 15% 5 Forecast 15% 4 12% 4 12% 3 9% 3 9% 2 6% 2 6% 1 3% 1 3% 0 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 0% 0 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 0% Rents - South Rental Growth - South Rents - North Rental Growth - North Rents -South Rental Growth - South Rents - North Rental Growth - North Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen 55
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 7. CAPITAL MARKET 56
Perth Hanoi Brisbane Tokyo Auckland Ho Chi Minh City Bangkok Melbourne Seoul Sydney Mumbai Kuala Lumpur Taipei Beijing Shanghai New Delhi Guangzhou Bangalore Singapore Shenzhen Hong Kong Office Yield Spread 8% 6% Y I E L D S P R E A D C O N T I N U E S A T L O W L E V E L S O F F I C E Y I E L D V S 1 0 -Y E A R G O V E R N M E N T B O N D Y I E L D Yield spread narrowed to 100 bps or below 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Ten Year High 2017F Ten Year Low Source: CBRE Research, December 2016. 57
A Y E A R O F M & A Hanoi International Centre KEPPEL LAND LTD. VINACAPITAL @ US$ 13.8 MIL. OFFICE Source: RCA. 58
T O P 1 0 R E A L E S T A T E S T O R I E S 1. Growing Hospitality Market 2. Issuance of 06/2016/NHNN Circular 3. The end of 30.000 billion VND package 4. Public announcement of mortgaged projects 5. Name projects that are unqualified for Fire Safety 6. Active M&A market 7. Trend of green in buildings development 8. The growth of affordable segment 9. Renovation of old apartments 10. The entrance of non-real estate players 59
R E A L E2 S0T 1A 7 T E A SM I A RPK AE CT I OF IUC T L O O K 60
2 0 1 7 R O A D S H O W S A V E T H E D A T E ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL REPORT JANUARY 24 City Venue Date Singapore Arts House January 24 Seoul, South Korea Four Seasons February 14 Sydney, Australia Sydney Conservatorium of Music February 22 Brisbane, Australia To be announced March 7 Melbourne, Australia Park Hyatt Melbourne March 9 Auckland, New Zealand To be announced March 14 Hong Kong To be announced April 5 New Delhi, India To be announced April 19 Adelaide, Australia To be announced May 9 Perth, Australia To be announced May 11 Tokyo To be announced June 2 VIETNAM NATIONAL REPORT MID-FEBRUARY 61
D I S C L A I M E R S A N D W A I V E R S This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE s current views of the commercial realestate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE s control. In addition, many of CBRE s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE s securities or of the performance of any other company s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities of CBRE or any other company based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein. 62
Thank You