BA-CA ECONOMIC RESEARCH Key Economic Indicators December 2006 Banking for success.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year 2005 2006 2 2007 2 2008 2 GDP (real) 3 2.0 3.2 2.4 2.2 GDP (nominal) 3.9 5.0 4.2 4. Private consumption 3.7.8 2.2 2.2 Investment in machinery & equipment 3 0.2 7.0 5.3 3. Investment in construction 3 0.4 2.7 2.5 2. Exports of goods & services 3 6.4 7.4 4.9 4.9 Imports of goods & services 3 5.2 5.9 5.7 4.9 Consumer prices 2.3.5.9.8 Public Sector: Budget (in % of GDP).5.6.6. Debt (in % of GDP) 63.3 62.3 6.3 59.8 Unemployment rate in % (Eurostat) 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.5 Unemployment rate in % 4 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.2 preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast 3 based on 995 prices 4 national definition GROWTH OF REAL GDP IN AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year, 988-2008 5 4 3 2 988 990 992 994 996 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 calculated in accordance with ESA 95. 2005 preliminary figures. 2006, 2007 and 2008 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast
AUSTRIA S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)* In Euro billion. Gross value added (at current prices) 2002 2003 2004 2005 Agriculture, forestry 4.05 4.00 4.00 3.60 Mining, manufacturing 40.3 40.50 42.00 43.60 Energy & water supply 4.70 4.90 4.80 5.00 Construction 4.77 5.80 6.0 6.70 Wholesale/retail 25.88 26.30 27.63 28.2 Restaurants, hotels 8.84 9.30 9.70 0.0 Transport, communication 4.96 5.00 4.90 5.30 Finance, insurance 0.00 0.60.50.80 Real estate and business services 33.95 34.80 37.30 39.50 Government services.88 2.20 2.30 2.70 Other service activities 29.34 30.20 3.40 33.00 Taxes minus subsidies on products 22.00 22.70 24.30 25.70 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 220.69 226.97 237.82 245.0 In Euro billion. Expenditures (at current prices) 2002 2003 2004 2005 Private consumption 24.56 26.92 32.99 37.58 Public consumption 39.69 40.63 42.70 44.47 Gross fixed capital formation 46.45 49.50 50.9 50.9 Statistical discrepancy 0.6 0.50 0.3 0.49 Total domestic demand 20.08 28.90 225.76 233.45 plus exports of goods & services 07.52 09.78 2.72 33.06 less imports of goods & services 96.9 0.7.65 2.40 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 220.69 226.97 235.82 245.0 *Economic data are computed in accordance with the European System of Integrated Economic Accounts (ESA 95). rounding-off errors
AUSTRIA Annual or monthly averages, change over previous year Industrial Retail Exports production nominal 2003 2.2.5 2.0 2004 7.4 2.4 4. 2005 4.4 2.2 4.7 2006 June 8..8 5.7 2006 July 9.4 2.3 9.7 2006 Aug. 2.8 3.4 0.7 2006 Sept. 7.3 7.3 TOURISM IN AUSTRIA Travel revenues and expenditures, in Euro million Revenues Expendit. Balance Overnight 2003 2,336 0,397,939 7,837 2004 2,327 9,59 2,736 7,25 2005 2,432 8,883 3,549 9,242 2005. Qtr. 4,28,306 2,92 43,522 2. Qtr. 2,345,945 400 9,20 3. Qtr. 3,756 4,386 629 39,453 4. Qtr. 2,3,246 867 7,066 2006. Qtr. 2 4,37 overnight stays (Austrians and foreigners) in thousand 2 As the method for collecting quarterly data is in the process of being revised, quarterly data as from 2006 will again be published beginning in 2007. AUSTRIA S LABOUR MARKET Annual average or end-of-month value, in thousand Employed Unemployed Joblessrate 2003 3,84. 240. 7.0% 2004 3,99.0 243.9 7.% 2005 3,234.6 252.7 7.2% 2006 June 3,306.4 96.4 6.8% 2006 July 3,380.4 96.7 6.7% 2006 Aug. 3,365.9 200.8 6.7% 2006 Sept. 3,336.3 96.4 6.6% 2006 Oct. 3,320.3 24.6 6.6% national definition, monthly figures seasonally adjusted
AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 2005 Imports: EUR 96.499 billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.2% America 4.7% Asia 9.7 % Eastern Europe without EU members 4.6% EFTA and other European countries 4.7% Other EU 25 countries 3.7% New EU member states (CEE) 0.2% Euro area 6.% AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 2005 Exports: EUR 94.705 billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.9% America 7.4% Asia 6.6% Eastern Europe without EU members 6.3% EFTA and other European countries 6.2% Other EU 25 countries 5.9% New EU member states (CEE) 2.8% Euro area 52.7%
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year 5 4 3 2 USA OECD Euro 2 EU-25 Austria 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 forecast 3-MONTH INTEREST RATES In percent, monthly averages 6 5 4 3 2 0 Switzerland Japan GB USA Euro 2.04 2.05 5.05 8.05.05 2.06 5.06 8.06.06
CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year 5 4 3 2 0 - Euro 2 Japan Germany USA Austria 0.04.05 4.05 7.05 0.05.06 4.06 7.06 0.06 measured against the HICPs BOND YIELDS (SECONDARY MARKET) In percent, 0-year government obligations 6 5 4 3 2 0 Switzerland Japan Germany USA Austria.04 2.05 5.05 8.05.05 2.06 5.06 8.06.06
SHARE PRICE INDICES January, 2000 = 00 420 360 300 240 80 20 ATX CECE (EUR) 0.04.05 4.05 7.05 0.05.06 4.06 7.06 0.06 30 20 0 00 90 80 70 60 Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 0.04.05 4.05 7.05 0.05.06 4.06 7.06 0.06 20 0 00 90 80 70 60 Dow Jones Industrial NASDAQ 0.04.05 4.05 7.05 0.05.06 4.06 7.06 0.06
NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2005 World EU 25 Euro Germ. Austria GDP region In Euro billion 35,593 0,282 7,998 2,242 237 Share in % of World GDP 00.0 28.9 22.5 6.3 0.7 USA Japan China Russia Central& Eastern Europe in Euro billion 0,00 3,665,89 606 669 Share in % of World GDP 28. 0.3 5..7.9 new EU countries included REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 200 0.8.4.8 0.8 0.2 2002.0 0. 0.9.6 0.3 2003. 0.2 0.7 2.7.4 2004 2.4..8 4.2 2.6 2005 2.0 0.9.4 3.2 2.7 2006 2 3.2 2.5 2.7 3.3 2.8 2007 2 2.4. 2.0 2. 2.2 preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast, HVB CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 200 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.8 0.8 2002.7.4 2.2.6 0.9 2003.3.0 2. 2.3 0.2 2004 2.0.7 2. 2.7 0.0 2005 2. 2.0 2.2 3.4 0.3 2006 2.7.7 2.2 3.3 0.2 2007 2 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.7 0.5 measured against the HICPs 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast, HVB
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In percent, annual or monthly averages Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 200 3.6 7.4 7.9 4.8 5.0 2002 4.2 8.2 8.3 5.8 5.4 2003 4.3 9.0 8.7 6.0 5.3 2004 4.9 9.5 8.9 5.5 4.7 2005 5.2 9.5 8.6 5. 4.4 2006 2 4.8 8.9 8.0 4.7 4.3 2007 2 4.6 8.4 7.7 5. 4.3 2005 4. Qtr. 5.2 9.2 8.5 4.9 4.5 2006. Qtr. 5. 8.8 8.2 4.7 4.2 3. Qtr. 4.9 8.3 7.8 4.6 4. 3. Qtr. 4.8 8.5 7.8 4.7 4. EU countries are computed pursuant to the Eurostat method 2 BA-CA forecast, HVB BUDGET DEFICIT/SURPLUS In percent of GDP Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 200 0. 2.9.8 0.9 6. 2002 0.4 3.7 2.6 2.2 5.9 2003.5 4.0 3. 3.6 6.8 2004. 3.7 2.7 3.4 6.5 2005.5 3.2 2.4 2.6 5.6 2006 2.6 2.2 2..9 3.8 2007 2.6.6.8 2.0 3. preliminary figures 2 forecast CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES In percent of GDP Euro 2 USA Japan 200 0.3 3.8 2.2 2002 0.7 4.5 2.9 2003 0.4 4.8 3.2 2004 0.6 5.7 3.8 2005 0.3 6.4 3.7 2006 2 0.4 6.5 3.6 2007 2 0.3 6.2 3.4 preliminary figures 2 forecast
MEAN EXCHANGE RATE OF THE EURO In currency for one Euro, annual or monthly averages USD JPY GBP CHF SEK RUB 2000 0.92 99.5 0.6.56 8.45 26.0 200 0.90 08.7 0.62.5 9.26 26.2 2002 0.94 8. 0.63.47 9.6 29.7 2003.3 3.0 0.69.52 9.3 34.7 2004.24 34.4 0.68.54 9.3 35.8 2005.24 36.9 0.68.55 9.28 35.2 2006 Aug..28 48.5 0.68.58 9.2 34.3 2006 Sept..27 49.0 0.68.58 9.27 34. 2006 Oct..26 49.7 0.67.59 9.25 33.9 2006 Nov..29 5. 0.67.59 9.0 34.3 PLN CZK SKK HUF SIT HRK 2000 4.0 35.6 43.4 260.0 206.6 7.7 200 3.67 34. 43.3 256.6 28.0 7.5 2002 3.85 30.8 4.0 243.0 226.0 7.4 2003 4.40 3.8 4.5 253.5 233.9 7.6 2004 4.53 3.9 40.0 25.8 239.6 7.5 2005 4.02 29.8 38.6 248. 239.6 7.4 2006 Aug. 3.90 28.2 37.7 274.4 239.6 7.3 2006 Sept. 3.96 28.4 37.5 274.4 239.6 7.4 2006 Oct. 3.90 28.3 36.8 267. 239.6 7.4 2006 Nov. 3.82 28.0 35.9 258.8 239.6 7.3 Reference rates of the ECB, national statistics KEY INTEREST RATES Rate prevailing on last change Dec. 6, 2006 since in % points Euro 2 (repo) 3.25% Oct. 2006 0.25 USA (fed funds) 5.25% June 2006 0.25 Japan (discount) 0.40% July 2006 0.35 Switzerland (SNB targetband).25 2.00% Sept. 2006 0.25 UK (base rate) 5.00% Nov. 2005 0.50
You will find economic analyses on Bank Austria Creditanstalt s homepage: www.ba-ca.com under Analyses & Research in the section Economic Research Austria or directly at http://economicresearch-e.ba-ca.com Published by Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG 030 Vienna, Vordere Zollamtsstrasse 3 00 Vienna, Am Hof 2 Edited by Economics and Market Analysis Kurt Fesselhofer, telephone +43 (0)5 05 05/4953 Petra Jellen, telephone +43 (0)5 05 05/4952 (email: economic.research@ba-ca.com) Production: Public Relations Department Printed by Holzhausen Graphics: Hans Ljung Photo: Mauritius Sources: Bank Austria Creditanstalt, HVB Research, Eurostat, ECB, OECD, OeNB, Statistik Austria, WIFO, Datastream Closing Date: December 6, 2006