Innovation and the Future of Tax Exploring new directions in the world of tax 2018 Financial Services Tax Conference July 19, 2018 kpmg.com
Notices The following information is not intended to be written advice concerning one or more Federal tax matters subject to the requirements of section 10.37(a)(2) of Treasury Department Circular 230. The information contained herein is of a general nature and based on authorities that are subject to change. Applicability of the information to specific situations should be determined through consultation with your tax adviser. 2
Today s presenters Joe Gagliano Senior Vice President, Global Head of Tax American Express E: joe.gagliano@aexp.com Tal Kaissar Partner, Tax, Insurance KPMG LLP E: tkaissar@kpmg.com Getty Chin Managing Director, Tax Goldman Sachs E: getty.chin@gs.com Brad Brown Chief Innovation Officer, National Tax Transformation & Technology Leader KPMG LLP E: bradbrown@kpmg.com Amit Ringshia Managing Director, KPMG Ignition KPMG LLP E: aringshia@kpmg.com 3
Agenda 01 Evolution of the Tax Department Strategy 02 Technology & Process Initiatives 03 The Tax Team 04 What s Next
Evolution of the tax department strategy
Why is this topic so hot now? Sensing meaningful disruption with the PEST model Political Economic Social Technology Global tax reform Globalization versus localization Tax transparency and responsibility Data residency, ownership, privacy Use of technology Cost of noncompliance GE transaction Budget constraints Access to Big 4 Scale Labor arbitrage in remote locations Outsourcing Transformation Data access Digital vs. Human labor Evolving workforce skills and desires Gig economy Alternative workforce solutions Cloud Intelligent automation Enterprise data strategies Block chain Cross function business digitization These global trends are significantly impacting the tax function 6
2018 global CEO outlook About the research Our global research surveyed CEOs of many of the world s largest and most complex businesses in order to understand the challenges and opportunities they face and their vision for the business of tomorrow. The research was conducted by Longitude on behalf of KPMG. Respondents were split across the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, the Nordics and Africa. For the global research we surveyed 1,300 CEOs. Of their organizations: 34 percent have in excess of US$10 billion a year in revenues, 42 percent have between US$1 billion and US$9.9 billion a year in revenues, and 24 percent have between US$500 million and US$999 million a year in revenues. Eleven main sectors were covered asset management, automotive, banking, consumer and retail, energy, infrastructure, insurance, life sciences, manufacturing, technology, and telecommunications. The survey details the responses of 1,300 CEOs, of which 111 respondents are U.S. financial services CEOs, with views from the banking, insurance and asset management sectors. Significant differences across sector responses are noted throughout. The sample sizes were as follows: Banking, n = 39 Insurance, n = 40 Asset management, n = 32 Please note that, due to rounding, the numbers presented throughout this deck may not add up exactly to the totals provided, and percentages may not reflect the absolute figures precisely. 7
Organizations are embracing disruption Full CEO Population U.S. CEOs are nearly unanimous in their view on the benefits of disruption: 98 percent see it as more of an opportunity than a threat. Nearly nine in 10 (86 percent) agree that they are actively disrupting the sector in which they operate, compared with only 54 percent of CEOs globally. Extent to which CEOs agree or disagree with statements about disruption within their industry My organization is struggling to keep pace with the rate of technological innovation in our sector Overall disagree 84% 44% U.S. Overall agree 8% 8% 7% 2% Overall disagree 35% 15% 20% Global 29% Overall agree 36% 28% 8% 1% We see technological disruption as more 1% of an opportunity than a threat 1% 65% 33% 98% 1% 1% 4% 45% 50% 95% Fast-advancing technology is not the only significant disruption my business faces 81% 29% 19% 13% 6% 29% 10% 19% 6% 39% 26% 65% The lead times to achieve significant progress on transformation often seem overwhelming 82% Rather than waiting to be disrupted by 6% competitors, my organization is actively 1% 6% 8% disrupting the sector in which we operate 28% 46% 16% 9% 7% 2% 86% 41% 30% 9% 21% 20% 21% 5% 26% 37% 31% 65% 28% 54% 22% Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree Question: To what extent do you agree with the following statements about disruption within your industry? Sample sizes: 400 (US) and 1300 (core) 8
Strong industry prospects, but a modest growth outlook While CEOs are confident about prospects for their company and industry, growth rates are expected to be moderate: over half project modest topline growth of between 0 and 2 percent and headcount increase of less than 5 percent. US financial services CEOs who are confident about growth prospects for the following over the next 3 years Company Industry Financial services Banking 98% 100% Financial services Banking 83% 77% CEOs who disagree with the following statement Growth over the next 3 years will be harder earned than ever before. Financial services 61% Banking 77% Insurance 55% Asset management 50% Insurance Asset management 95% 100% Insurance Asset management 85% 88% Banking CEOs are more likely than insurance or asset management CEOs to disagree that growth will be more difficult to achieve over the next 3 years Outlook for topline revenue growth over the next 3 years Country Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management 86% 75% 92% 90% Banking CEOs are more confident than asset management CEOs about growth prospects for the country Global economy Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management Insurance and asset management CEOs are more confident than banking CEOs about growth prospects for the global economy Q1: In terms of growth prospects, please indicate your level of confidence in the following over the next three years. Q9: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about your organization's growth? Q2: What is your organization s outlook for topline revenue growth over the next 3 years? Q3: How do you expect your organization s headcount to change over the next 3 years? 33% 52% 65% 59% 2 4.99% 0.01 1.99% Financial services Banking Expected headcount change over the next 3 years Increase 6% or higher Insurance Asset management 45% 38% 45% 53% 55% 62% 55% 47% Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management 33% 28% 35% 38% Increase less than 5% 64% 72% 60% 59% Stay the same or decrease 3% - 5% 3% 9
CEOs look to emerging markets for growth U.S. financial services organizations are prioritizing emerging markets for growth, with a focus on Central/South America. Only one in five says that developed markets are priority for expansion over the next 3 years. U.S. financial services CEOs priorities for geographical expansion over the next 3 years Emerging markets 81% Banking 82% Insurance 85% Asset management 75% Emerging markets prioritized for expansion over the next 3 years n = 90 (those prioritizing emerging markets) Central/South America Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management 42% 41% 47% 38% Eastern Europe 26% 19% 24% 38% Middle East 19% 19% 21% 17% Asia-Pacific * 9% 13% 9% 4% Developed markets Not applicable: we do not plan to enter any new country markets 1% 18% Banking 18% Insurance 13% Asset management 25% Q4a: Which of the following, if any, will be your organization s biggest priority for geographical expansion over the next 3 years? Q4b: Which developed markets are you primarily prioritizing for expansion over the next 3 years? Which emerging markets are you primarily prioritizing for expansion over the next 3 years? Africa 4% 9% - 4% * Excludes Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore Developed markets prioritized for expansion over the next 3 years n = 20 (those prioritizing developed markets) Financial services Australasia 35% North America 30% Europe 25% Asia-Pacific ** 10% Note: sub-sector sample sizes too small to be shown: banking (n = 7), insurance (n = 5) and asset management (n = 4) ** Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore 10
Strategic alliances and M&A are the most important growth drivers U.S. financial services CEOs are employing a range of strategies, with strategic alliances and M&A their top priority. Their M&A appetite is high to moderate, and their top drivers for M&A are cost reduction and eliminating a direct competitor. Most important strategy for achieving growth objectives over the next 3 years Strategic alliances with third parties M&A Joint venture Organic growth Outsourcing 24% 28% 18% 28% 21% 23% 18% 22% 17% 18% 15% 19% 12% 8% 20% 6% 26% 23% 30% 25% Ranked #1 most important Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management Q6: Which of the following strategies will be most important for achieving your organization s growth objectives over the next 3 years? Q5a: Over the next 3 years, how would you describe your organization s M&A appetite? Q5b: What are the primary drivers of your organization s M&A appetite over the next 3 years? (All with a high or moderate M&A appetite) Low M&A appetite Moderate M&A appetite High M&A appetite US financial services CEOs view of their organization s M&A appetite over the next 3 years 20% 40% 41% US financial services CEOs top drivers of M&A appetite over the next 3 years Rank # Financial services 1 Reduce costs 2 Eliminate a direct competitor 3 On-board new digital technology 4 Use cheap financing before interest rates rise Banking 18% Insurance 20% Asset management 22% Banking 49% Insurance 38% Asset management 31% Banking 33% Insurance 43% Asset management 47% Banking: (1) On-board new digital technology; (2) Reduce costs; (3) Diversify the business Insurance: (1) Reduce costs; (=2) Increase market share; (=2) Eliminate a direct competitor; (4) Onboard new digital technology Asset management: (=1) Eliminate a direct competitor; (=1) Use cheap financing before interest rates rise; (=3) Reduce costs; (=3) Diversify the business 11
Operational risk is the greatest threat to growth CEOs see operational risk as the stand-out threat to their organization s growth. Other serious concerns are interest rate risk, cyber security risk, talent risk and a return to territorialism. Assessment of risks is largely consistent across sub-sectors, although banking CEOs are relatively more concerned about interest rate risk, and insurance CEOs are relatively more concerned about a return to territorialism. Risks considered to pose the greatest threat to their organization s growth among US financial services CEOs (ranked 1/2/3) 71% 43% 41% 35% 35% 25% 12% 12% 11% 9% 4% Operational risk Cyber security risk Return to territorialism Environmental/climate change risk Top 5 risks considered to pose the greatest threat to their organization s growth among financial services CEOs, by sub-sector (ranked 1/2/3) Rank # Banking Insurance Asset management Regulatory risk Supply chain risk 1 Operational risk Operational risk Operational risk 2 Interest rate risk Return to territorialism Talent risk 3 Cyber security risk Cyber security risk Return to territorialism 4 Emerging technology risk Talent risk Cyber security risk 5 Talent risk Emerging technology risk Interest rate risk Q8a: Which of the following risks poses the greatest threat to your organization s growth? Banking CEOs consider interest rate risk to be a greater threat than insurance or asset management CEOs Insurance CEOs see a return to territorialism as a greater threat than banking CEOs 12
Technology & process initiatives
Organizations are investing in innovation to achieve growth CEOs are increasingly relying on a network of third parties to support their growth objectives. Their top priorities over the next 3 years are setting up accelerator or incubator programs for startup firms and making products and services available online. One in four CEOs cites the difficulty of sharing data securely with third parties as the biggest barrier to obtaining value from third-party networks. Actions organizations intend to take over the next 3 years in pursuit of their growth objectives (ranked 1/2/3) Rank # Action 1 2 3 Set up accelerator or incubator programs for startup firms Make products and services available via an online platform provider Collaborate with innovative startups Financial services Banking Ranked 1, 2, 3 Insurance Ranked 1, 2, 3 51% 1 =2 Asset management Ranked 1, 2, 3 46% =2 =1 44% 2 3 4 Corporate venturing 43% 3 1 =5 =5 Partner with third-party data providers Partner with third-party cloud technology providers 41% 41% =1 The challenges considered by U.S. financial services CEOs to be the biggest barriers to extracting value from thirdparty networks Difficulty sharing data securely with third parties Legacy IT systems are incompatible with nimble approaches by startups Challenges measuring ROI from third-party partnerships Concerns about sharing commercially sensitive data Lengthy and complex procurement processes 26% 15% 33% 31% 23% 28% 25% 13% 22% 28% 18% 19% 17% 18% 15% 19% 13% 10% 10% 19% Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management Q28: Does your organization intend to undertake any of the following actions over the next 3 years to help in pursuing your growth objectives? Q29: To what extent do you agree with the following statements about your organization s experiences of partnering with third-party firms? Q30: Which of the following challenges represents the biggest barrier to your organization extracting value from networks of third-parties? 14
Expectations are high for returns on digital transformation U.S. financial services CEOs have a strong understanding of how to calculate ROI from technology investments, and the majority are looking at significant returns from the overall program in the short term. Very few say that their technology investment is tactical instead of part of a long-term plan, and a minority say that the board has an unreasonable expectation of returns on digital transformation investment. Proportion of U.S. financial services CEOs who say their organization has a strong or very strong understanding of how to calculate ROI from the following technology investments U.S. financial services CEOs who agree with the following statements about their organization s investment in digital transformation Overall digital transformation program Artificial intelligence systems 95% 93% Banking 100% Insurance 95% Asset management 91% Banking 92% Insurance 98% Asset management 88% My company s board of directors has an unreasonable expectation of a return on investment related to digital transformation Most of our technology investment is tactical, to solve today s business challenges, rather than strategic investment focused on a long-term plan 15% 13% Banking 10% Insurance 13% Asset management 25% Banking 5% Insurance 15% Asset management 19% Timescales over which US financial services CEOs expect to see significant ROI on technology investments Financial services Banking Insurance Asset management Robotic process automation 1% Insurance CEOs are more likely than banking CEOs to have already achieved significant ROI from both their overall digital transformation program and AI systems Q12: To what extent does your organization understand how to calculate the rate of expected return on investment (ROI) from the following Banking CEOs are most likely to be looking technology investments? Q14: To what extent do you agree with the following at longer-term ROI from both their overall statements about your organization s investment in digital transformation program and AI digital transformation? systems Q13: Over what time period do you expect to see significant return on investment from a) digital transformation, b) artificial intelligence, and c) robotic process automation? (All those investing in each technology) Overall digital transformation program Artificial intelligence systems Already achieved 14% 5% 23% 13% Within 3 years 74% 75% 68% 85% In 3+ years 12% 21% 11% 3% Already achieved 10% 3% 18% 9% Within 3 years 62% 54% 60% 72% In 3+ years 29% 44% 23% 19% 15
Artificial intelligence will provide a range of benefits CEOs are divided on whether AI and robotics technologies will create more jobs than they eliminate, with insurance CEOs more likely and banking CEOs less likely to see them as overall job creators. CEOs believe that these technologies impact will be most pronounced in accelerating revenue growth and improving the customer experience. AI is not yet embedded into process automation: half of CEOs have started limited implementation for specific purposes. Benefits expected to be delivered to the organization by AI over the next 3 years (ranked 1/2/3) Application of AI in the automation of the organization s processes, U.S. financial services Rank # Benefit Financial services Banking Ranked 1, 2, 3 Insurance Ranked 1, 2, 3 Asset management Ranked 1, 2, 3 We have not implemented any AI in the organization 1% Banking 3% Insurance - Asset management - =1 Accelerate revenue growth 43% 1 1 =2 We are piloting/trialing AI in just a small number of processes 22% Banking 28% Insurance 18% Asset management 19% =1 3 Improve the customer experience Increase agility as an organization 43% =2 =3 1 40% =2 2 We have begun a limited implementation of AI for some specific processes 45% Banking 41% Insurance 48% Asset management 47% 4 Improve risk management 37% =2 5 Reduce operating costs 36% =3 We have already implemented AI to automate some of our processes 32% Banking 28% Insurance 35% Asset management 34% 6 Improve data governance 35% 7 Improve productivity 34% =2 Q26a: Over the next 3 years, which of the following is the most likely impact of artificial intelligence and robotics technologies on your organization? Q27: What do you expect will be the biggest benefits delivered to your organization by artificial intelligence over the next 3 years? Q26b: Which of the following best describes your organization s application of artificial intelligence in the automation of its processes today? 16
Technology initiative buckets Tax & Finance User Experience Smart Review Smart Workflow Collaboration Documents Management Data Models & Apps Intelligence & Insights Intelligent Automation Basic Automation ML / NLP Chat Artificial Intelligence 17
The tax team
Emerging technology skills are in great demand CEOs are reconfiguring their workforce to focus on new technology skills, with emerging technology specialists and scenarioand risk-modeling specialists the priority. The majority are waiting to achieve certain growth targets before hiring new skills, and are making moderate to widespread use of a contingent workforce. The workforce capabilities considered by U.S. financial services CEOs to be highly important in supporting the organization s growth plans The organization s approach to recruiting new skill sets into the organization, U.S. financial services Emerging technology specialists Scenario- and risk-modeling specialists Cyber security specialists Sustainability experts Data scientists Digital transformation managers Governance/ethics experts Emerging markets experts Evolving workforce experts 85% 78% 75% 70% 54% 47% 43% 42% 34% Banking top three: 1. Emerging technology specialists 2. Scenario- and risk-modeling specialists 3. Cyber security specialists Insurance top three: 1. Emerging technology specialists 2. Cyber security specialists 3. Scenario- and risk-modeling specialists Asset management top three: 1. Scenario- and risk-modeling specialists 2. Emerging technology specialists 3. Cyber security specialists We are hiring new skills, regardless of future growth Banking 26% Insurance 28% Asset management 25% 26% 74% We are waiting to achieve certain growth targets before hiring new skills Banking 74% Insurance 73% Asset management 75% % who selected 6 or 7, highly important Q23a: How important do you expect these workforce capabilities to be in supporting your organization s future growth plans? Q24: Which of the following best describes your organization s approach to recruiting new skill sets into the organization? Q25a: To what extent does your organization make use of a contingent workforce (i.e. freelancers, independent professionals, temporary contract workers, independent contractors) model today to ensure that the right skills are in place? Q25b: What do you consider to be the biggest challenges when relying upon a contingent workforce model? (All who use a contingent workforce) 19
Artificial intelligence: uncertain impact on job creation CEOs are divided on whether AI and robotics technologies will create more jobs than they eliminate, with insurance CEOs more likely and banking CEOs less likely to see them as overall job creators. CEOs believe that these technologies impact will be most pronounced in accelerating revenue growth and improving the customer experience. AI is not yet embedded into process automation: half of CEOs have started limited implementation for specific purposes. Most likely impact of AI and robotics technologies on the organization within the next 3 years, U.S. financial services It will create more jobs than it eliminates Banking 36% Insurance 63% Asset management 50% 50% 50% It will eliminate more jobs than it creates Banking 64% Insurance 38% Asset management 50% Banking CEOs are more likely than insurance CEOs to believe that AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates Q26a: Over the next 3 years, which of the following is the most likely impact of artificial intelligence and robotics technologies on your organization? Q27: What do you expect will be the biggest benefits delivered to your organization by artificial intelligence over the next 3 years? Q26b: Which of the following best describes your organization s application of artificial intelligence in the automation of its processes today? 20
Use of a contingent workforce is more widespread in the U.S. More organizations in the U.S. are using contingent workers than globally. Just under half (45 percent) make moderate use of this model, while 31 percent make widespread use of it across the organization. CEOs see a range of challenges in using a contingent workforce as equally relevant. Use of a contingent workforce Challenges when relying on a contingent workforce Full CEO Population We make limited use of a contingent workforce model in a small number of areas 23% 47% Risks associated with sharing data/information 51% 50% We make moderate use of a contingent workforce model We make widespread use of a contingent workforce across the organization 13% 31% 39% 45% Uncertainty about ownership of intellectual property Difficulty aligning contingent workers behavior with our organization s key values/purpose Lack of proximity to workforce creates management/control issues 50% 50% 50% 51% 49% 49% We do not use a contingent workforce model 1% 1% Other United States Global Question: To what extent does your organization make use of a contingent workforce (i.e. freelancers, independent professionals, temporary contract workers, independent contractors) model today to ensure that the right skills are in place? Sample sizes: 400 (US) and 1300 (core) Question: What do you consider to be the biggest challenges when relying upon a contingent workforce model? (All who use a contingent workforce.) Sample sizes: 397 (US) and 1291 (core) United States Global 21
What s next?
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