Metro Boston Projections Update Tim Reardon Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council Boston MPO November 16, 2017
Presentation Outline Regional Growth since 2010 Regional Population Projections Regional Household Projections Land Use Model Q & A
Averate Annual Growth Rate Population Growth Rates Annual Population Growth Rates by Community Type, Metro Boston 1970-2015 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs -1.5% 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 Source: U.S. Census, Decennial Census and Population Estimates
250,000 MAPC Projections vs Population Estimates 2010-2016, Metro Boston 200,000 Region has grown faster than projected, especially in suburban community types 150,000 100,000 50,000 Developing Suburbs Maturing Suburbs Regional Urban Centers Inner Core - MAPC Stronger Region Scenario (prorated) U.S. Census Population Estimates
Domestic Outmigration is a Drag on Growth 50,000 40,000 Components of Population Change, 2011-2016 Metro Boston (5 County) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 Total Population Change Net international Migration Natural Increase Net Domestic Migration -20,000-30,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Projected Demand vs. Permitted Units, 2010-2016, Metro Boston 120,000 100,000 New multifamily units meeting only 64% of estimated demand 80,000 60,000 40,000 Multifamily -- Developing Suburbs Multifamily -- Maturing Suburbs Multifamily -- Regional Urban Centers Multifamily -- Inner Core Single Family -- Developing Suburbs 20,000 Single Family -- Maturing Suburbs Single Family -- Regional Urban Centers 0 Projected Demand (prorated) Permitted Units, 2010-2016 Single Family -- Inner Core
Change School-age residents: projected vs. enrollment Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, MAPC Analysis
Employment Change Post-Recession Employment Growth, by Community Type, Metro Boston (labeled with percent of total) 250,000 200,000 19% Developing Suburbs 150,000 19% Maturing Suburbs Nearly two-thirds of recent job growth is in urban communities 100,000 50,000-17% 15% 22% 8% 45% 54% 2004-2008 2009-2015 Regional Urban Centers Inner Core Source: MA EOLWD, ES-202
Regional Population Projections
MassDOT Projections Committee Participants: MassDOT 13 Regional Planning Agencies / MPOs EOEEA, EOHED Technical Consultant: Umass Donahue Institute Population Estimates Program Methods: Traditional Cohort Component: Births Deaths + Migration Migration rates based on 2005 2011 period Calibrated to match 2015 population estimates Benchmark region municipalities > RPAs Preliminary projections released November 10 Future work: labor force estimates, employment by RPA
UMDI projections: An even Stronger Region? 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 Historical Population and Projections, MAPC Region 2010-2040 UMDI - PROVISIONAL MAPC Stronger Region 17.5% 14.9% 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 Census 2000 Census 2010 2020 2030 2040
UMDI Projections: An Aging Region MAPC Region Population by Age 2010-2040, UMDI - PROVISIONAL 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Population 2015 Population 2020 Population 2025 Population 2030 Population 2035 Population 2040 Census 2010 -
Household Projections
Labor Force and Household projections (MAPC) Refine existing regional population and household model Population detail: Race & Ethnicity Education* Labor force participation* Wage* Headship rate* Household detail Age of householder Families with children Household size Income ($) Workers Tenure * * These variables may be adjusted to test a range of assumptions and create multiple scenarios
Household Agents Categorized by householder age, household size, household structure, income NON-FAMILY 15-34 1 2 3 4+ 35-44 1 2 3 4+ 45-64 1 2 3 4+ 65+ 1 2 3 4+ FAMILY 15-34 2 3 4+ 35-44 2 3 4+ 45+ 2 3 4+
Land Use Projections
MAPC s Land Use Allocation Model Allocates growth to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) using Cube Land modeling software. Real estate market equilibrium between suppliers (developers) and consumers (households and firms) Accessibility to jobs & labor is explicit factor in where firms/households locate Economic model assuming rational behavior Real estate properties are occupied by the household or firm willing to pay the most Developers maximize profits when deciding what type of buildings to provide
Integrated Land Use / Transportation Modeling Household and Employer Location Preferences Land Use Regulation Accessibility & Congestion Future Land Use Transportation Projects & Programs Travel Demand
Land Use Allocation Model - Specifications Model components 18 household agent types 11 employer/firm types (NAICS codes) 8 real estate types 2700+ TAZs Key factors Peak period travel times to every other zone, by auto and transit Transit station proximity Neighborhood demographics Current rents and commercial lease prices, by zone Land use inputs Development capacity, by real estate type Subsidies for certain households or firms Development pipeline / Real estate supply Products Households classified by size, workers, income, auto availability Employment by sector New real estate square footage
Massbuilds A key input 4,000 developments statewide
Zonal Allocation, 2015 LRTP projections (households) Municipal Household Totals based on 2014 population and household projections Regional household totals (by agent type).. MAPC Boston Cambridge Somerville Wrentham TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457
NEW Land Use Allocation Model Regional household totals (by agent type).. Inputs: development pipeline, zoning capacity, transportation accessibility, etc MAPC TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457 Boston No predetermined municipal projections!
Creating Regional Scenarios Modify assumptions regarding: Migration rates Headship rates and family formation Education levels and income Development pipeline Zoning capacity Public subsidies Household location preferences Use scenarios for LRTP modeling, MAPC Regional Plan Update
Thank you Tim Reardon Director of Data Services treardon@mapc.org www.mapc.org