HAZUS 2014 7 th Annual Conference
Welcome
2 Nicky Hastings, Natural Resources Canada REFLECTING ON AN EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS FOR A MID-SIZED URBAN COMMUNITY IN WESTERN CANADA
Opportunity or Liability? Resilience Risk
What can we expect from a major quake? hazards: ~ 20 seconds of severe ground shaking liquefaction along river valleys and waterfront landslides along steep/unstable slopes building damage: casualties: lifelines: ~ 300 with significant damage, but repairable ~ 850 damaged beyond repair ~ 2,350 people injured ; ~100 are life-threatening ~165 fatalities ~14,000 homes without potable water @ 7 days ~6,700 homes without power @ 7 days ~11,000 truckloads of disaster debris economic losses: ~ $2.3 Billion of building-related losses ~ $4.4M per day of business-related losses
Natural Resources Canada Methods for Disaster Risk Reduction Earthquakes Floods Landslides Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut British Columbia Alberta Manitoba Newfoundland & Labrador Saskatchewan Ontario Québec Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Nova Scotia Project Background
Risk Reduction & Disaster Resilience Planning
We live in earthquake country
What can we expect from a major earthquake?
Coming to terms with earthquake risk natural hazards anthropogenic perils injury & disruption damage & loss people critical assets mitigation adaptation
Part I 1) What are the earthquake hazards for North Vancouver?
Seismic hazard potential - shaking Probabilistic Deterministic MMI Scale Perceived Shaking Damage Potential 2% in 50-year ground motions M7.3 scenario earthquake V VI VII Light felt by some Moderate felt by all Strong difficulty standing Pictures move Objects fall to ground Nonstructural damage VII VII VIII VII VI VIII Very strong difficulty driving Moderate structural damage VIII IX Violent general panic Heavy structural damage X Very violent general panic Extreme structural damage VIII Who and what are vulnerable to known earthquake hazards in the region? What are the likely consequences of a major earthquake in the region?
Earthquake Hazards Ground Shaking Site amplification Not Considered in analysis o Aftershocks o Basin & topographic effects o Tsunami o Interdependency & uncertainty Liquefaction Landslides Fire Following
Ground shaking hazards estimates based on a Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake VII VI VIII VII VIII
Liquefaction hazards
Earthquake-triggered landslides
Part II
Who is vulnerable? social vulnerability index high moderate low contributing factors Income & Family Language & Ethnicity Education Age Single Parents Mobility Service Industry Gender Cost of Renting $ Home Ownership Transportation 0 2 4 6 8 10
An evolving pattern of vulnerability
What is vulnerable?
Development history & vulnerability Design Code 3% 6% 0% 0% 23% 0% 67% Seismic Design Level Pre-Code (1973) Low Code (1973-1990) Moderate Code (1990-2005) Moderate Code Special (1990-2005) High Code (2005-2010) High Code Special (2005-2010)
Part III 3) What are the likely impacts & consequences of a major earthquake?
Disaster Risk Reduction - Performance Measures MMI Scale V VI VII VIII Perceived Shaking Light felt by some Moderate felt by all Strong difficulty standing Very strong difficulty driving Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake Damage Potential Pictures move Objects fall to ground Nonstructural damage Moderate structural damage M7.3 scenario earthquake VIII VII VI Building Damage Casualties IX Violent general panic Heavy structural damage Lifelines X Very violent general panic Extreme structural damage What are the likely consequences of a major earthquake in the region? Economic Loss
Analysis of Damage Potential Likelihood of damage None & Slight minor damage to walls & supports Moderate localized failure of walls & supports Extensive & Complete permanent structural failure & imminent danger of collapse
Buildings likelihood of damage estimates based on M7.3 Georgia Strait earthquake scenario 840 721 Green Tag 291 Yellow Tag Red Tag
Recovery Time- Buildings estimates based on Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake areas likely to be cordoned off during recovery process 840 721 291 Green Tag Yellow Tag Red Tag
Injuries daytime scenario estimates based on Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake Injury Rate proportion of building population likely to sustain injuries > 25% High 5-25% Moderate < 5% Low 165 80 535 1730 GSM7.3_B2 Paramedic Critical Hospital Fatal
Lifeline Functionality - Utilities estimates based on Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake Lifeline Service # buildings without service 14,647 8,515 21,961 19,691 6,736 14,694 3,500 22 At Day 1 At Day 7 At Day 90 Potable Water Electric Power
Economic Losses estimates based on Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake Economic Loss Ratio proportion of building assets likely to sustain loss > 30% Extreme 20-30% High 10-20% Moderate < 10% Low $645 $26 $1,730 GSM7.3_B2 $570 $M Buildings Contents Lifelines Business Revenue
Business Disruption & Loss estimates based on Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake What about system interdependencies? ~ $2.3 Billion of building-related losses Structural Damage Disruption D s No Water Outage Electric Power Outage Disruption D w Disruption D e Research contribution by Autumn Lotze and Stephanie Chang (UBC SCARP) Yes ~ $4.4 M per day of business-related losses lost wages & business income rental & relocation costs $4.4M/day ~90% DNV Gross Daily Revenue ~$5M per day = loss
What can we expect from a major quake? Mean Economic Loss Ratio ~14% hazards: ~ 20 seconds of severe ground shaking liquefaction along river valleys and waterfront landslides along steep/unstable slopes building damage: ~ 300 with significant damage, but repairable ~ 850 damaged beyond repair casualties: lifelines: economic losses: ~ 2,350 people injured ; ~80 are life-threatening ~165 fatalities ~14,000 homes without potable water @ 7 days ~6,700 homes without power @ 7 days ~11,000 truckloads of disaster debris ~ $2.9 Billion capital stock losses ~ $4.4M per day of business-related losses
The 2011 Christchurch earthquake M6.3 Earthquake Event and Related Aftershocks Mean Economic Loss Ratio ~9.5% 24 seconds of violent ground shaking which triggered liquefaction and landslides 837 buildings have so far been demolished 7000 buildings classified as being in suburban red zone, -not economically viable to repair 1200+ police officers from Christchurch and nationwide on duty 7 days following quake 185 died as a result of the earthquake 11310 people uprooted two weeks after February quake 300km of sewer pipes and about 124km of water pipes are being fixed 4 million tonnes (~160,000 trucks) of rubble carted away from commercial and residential areas $2 billion- Christchurch City Council s predicted cost to rebuild city infrastructure $30 billion- Reserve Bank s estimated total cost of earthquake claims
from knowledge to action 4) How might knowledge about earthquake risk be used to reduce future losses and increase disaster resilience in the community?
Land Use Planning Performance measures - disaster resilience: societal risk building safety economic security lifeline functionality Incorporate disaster resilience measures into development process Seismic retrofits of most vulnerable buildings
Potential Benefits of Seismic Retrofits
Emergency Management Emergency Plans earthquake response plan business continuity plan recovery plan Strengthen capabilities for response and recovery Community outreach and engagement to promote a culture of disaster resilience
Emergency Management
Next steps Goals Mitigation Earthquake Ready Community Coordinated Response Rapid Recovery
EARTHQUAKE READY ACTION PLAN 1. MITIGATION 1.1. Increase resiliency of District facilities and infrastructure 1.2. Develop Utility service resiliency 1.3. Seismic design guidelines for liquefaction hazard areas 1.4. Seismic retrofits in high risk areas 2. EARTHQUAKE READY COMMUNITY 2.1. Culture of preparedness in the DNV workplace 2.2. Encourage residents to be prepared to be self-sufficient for 72hrs to one week. 2.3. Business Continuity and emergency plans for commercial/industrial 2.4. Multifamily strata councils, senior facilities and daycares 2.5. Recreation Centre, Library and Museum 3. COORDINATED RESPONSE 3.1. Rapid Damage Assessment Unit 3.2. Engineering Department Operations Centre 3.3. Emergency Transportation Strategy 3.4. Operations Earthquake response plan 3.5 Emergency Communications Strategy 4. RAPID RECOVERY 4.1. Development Services Procedures for Recovery 4.2. Disaster Logistics Capacity 38
Questions? Nicky.Hastings@nrcan.gc.ca www.hazuscanada.ca