BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 25,919 7,740 Bloomberg ONGC IN Equity Shares (m) 8,555.5 M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 3,437.6/56.1 52-Week Range (INR) 472/234 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -4/19/11 Financials & Valuation (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales 1,886 2,027 2,100 EBITDA 643 767 804 Adj. PAT 296 369 387 Adj. EPS 34.3 42.7 44.8 (INR) EPS Gr. (%) 12.4 24.5 5.0 BV/Sh.(INR) 221 249 277 RoE (%) 16.3 18.2 17.0 RoCE (%) 14.0 15.7 15.0 Payout (%) 34.1 35.6 3 Valuation P/E (x) 11.7 9.4 9.0 P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 4.3 4.1 D. Yield (%) 2.5 3.2 3.5 13 August 2014 FY15 Results Update Sector: Oil & Gas ONGC CMP: INR402 TP: INR485 Buy EBITDA above estimates, but PAT impacted by dry well write-offs: ONGC reported above estimate EBITDA at INR126b (est. INR114b; +50% YoY, +13% QoQ) primarily due to lower subsidy at INR132b (est INR149b), and (b) lower opex at INR28b (est INR32b). Adjusted for subsidy differences, adj. EBITDA is largely in-line. However PAT at INR48b (est. INR61b; +19% YoY and -2% QoQ) was impacted by (a) higher D,D&A at INR64b (est. INR42b; +64% YoY and +7% QoQ) led by INR35b dry well write-off at KG-DWN-98/2 and Rajamundri blocks, and (b) lower other income at INR10b (est. INR13.5b; -22% YoY and -45% QoQ) impacted by lower interest income. FY15 net realization at USD47.2/bbl (v/s USD41/bbl in FY14): FY15 gross realization stood at USD109.7/bbl (+6% YoY and +3% QoQ) and post the subsidy of USD62/bbl net realization stood at USD47.2/bbl (+17% YoY and +44% QoQ). Production uptick expected: FY15 standalone production in oil was at 5.5mmt (-0.3% QoQ) and bcm (-2.7% QoQ). ONGC guides FY15 standalone production for oil at 23.5mmt (v/s 22.3 in FY14) and for gas at 24bcm (v/s 23.3 in FY14). Expect under recoveries to halve by FY16 v/s FY14: We estimate diesel reforms to cut gross under recoveries by ~46% by FY16 to INR750b. However, we model ONGC s subsidy reduction only at 28% as we believe given the precarious government finances it will first keep the benefit before passing it on to upstream. Upside potential to our FY15 gas price assumption: We model gas price of USD4.2/mmbtu in FY15 and assume est. USD5.3/6.3/mmbtu in FY16/17. USD1/mmbtu hike increases ONGC s EPS by ~6%. Maintain Buy: We remain positive on ONGC due to (1) likely increase in net realization due to lower subsidy driven by continued diesel price hikes, (2) significant upside potential of decision on gas price, and (3) attractive valuations. The stock trades at 9.4x FY16E EPS of INR42.7 with an implied dividend yield of ~3%. Our SOTP-based target price for ONGC is INR485. Buy. Harshad Borawake (HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432 Nitish Rathi (Nitish.Rathi@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
ONGC (standalone): Quarterly performance snapshot FY15 subsidy payout of INR132b; net realization at USD47/bbl ONGC s subsidy payout stood at INR132b (v/s INR126b in FY14 and INR162b in FY14). Gross realization stood at USD109.7/bbl, while the subsidy was at USD62/bbl resulting in net realization of USD47.2/bbl, +17% YoY and +44% QoQ. ONGC: FY15 Net realization at USD47/bbl Net Realization Subsidy Burden Gross Realization 50 56 55 50 69 47 34 25 43 58 56 58 51 48 63 65 39 48 83 45 44 47 47 48 51 40 45 46 33 47 22 4 22 37 51 73 2 14 19 28 33 48 16 24 70 73 67 77 63 63 62 63 63 64 62 74 62 72 57 59 61 78 71 77 79 33 81 79 91 89 100 126 119 109 121 116 111 122 110 110 110 114 103 109 108 107 109 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 13 August 2014 2
FY15 subsidy at INR132b; @USD62/bbl subsidy (INRb) 127 85 98 61 36 38 49 9 4 26 35 50 55 30 121 42 120 125 57 162 142 138 123 123 138 132 123 124 126 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Conservatively model 27% decline in upstream subsidy by FY16 as against 48% decline in gross under recoveries (INR b) Other key highlights ONGC s FY15 production guidance indicates standalone oil production of 23.51mmt and including JV at 27.14mmt. While on the gas front it guides for standalone production of 24bcm and including JV at 25.34bcm. KG-DWN-98/2 update: ONGC management indicated that DGH is yet to reply its submission of its Declaration of Commerciality (DoC) of the KG-DWN-98/2 discoveries. ONGC has submitted DoC for 9 oil & gas discoveries to DGH. ONGC will continue to capitalize interest cost on the Mozambique related loans, while Oil India had indicated that it will be expensing the same from P&L. 13 August 2014 3
FY15 operational highlights Oil production (excl. JV) stood at 5.5mmt (-1.4% YoY and -% QoQ); sales (excl. JV) were at 4.72mmt (-1.6% YoY and -0.1% QoQ). Gas production (excl. JV) stood at 5.65bcm (down 2% YoY, -2.7% QoQ); sales (excl. JV) were at 4.38bcm (-4.4% YoY, -3.9% QoQ). JV oil production was 0.95mmt (+4.2% YoY, flat QoQ), while JV gas production was 0.38bcm (-5.7% YoY, +6.1% QoQ). QoQ gas production increase was led by higher Panna-Mukta production Oil standalone (excl. JV) production down 1.4% YoY (mmt) Oil sales (incl. JV) marginally down YoY and QoQ (mmt) JV gas production down 7% YoY and 10% QoQ (bcm) JV ONGC Total (incl. JV) Gas sales (incl. JV) down % YoY and 3.3% QoQ (bcm) JV ONGC Total (incl. JV) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.7 1 6.25 6.36 6.31 6.16 6.39 0 6 2 6.36 6.34 6.22 6.18 6.21 6.29 6.17 6.04 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 5.15 5.04 5.09 4.98 4.88 5.05 5.02 5.23 5.12 5.06 5.02 4.95 4.93 4.89 4.90 4.86 4.70 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Oil + Gas production +6% QoQ led by Panna Mukta (mmtoe) Gas (bcm) Oil (mmt) Total (mmtoe) Oil + Gas Sales down ~2% QoQ (mmtoe) Gas (bcm) Oil (mmt) Total (mmtoe) 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.6 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.0 13.01 13.10 13.39 13.11 12.92 13.22 13.15 13.15 12.96 12.89 12.93 12.69 12.67 12.70 12.83 12.64 12.49 16 10.95 10.96 10.81 17 10.86 10.66 11.16 11.02 10.93 11.06 10.83 10.86 10.66 10.89 10.78 10.60 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 13 August 2014 4
High well write-offs increases D,D&A sharply on YoY basis ONGC s D,D&A expenses in FY15 stood at INR64b (v/s est. of INR42b); +64% YoY and +7% QoQ. The sharp YoY increase is led by INR35b dry well write-offs. ONGC incurred high exploratory write-off cost at INR35b (v/s INR16b in FY14) primarily due to abandonment of deep-water wells at KG-DWN-98/2 (write-off at ~INR17b) and Rajamundri (write-off at ~INR9b) As on March 2014, management indicated that it had carried exploratory wells of INR100b on its balance sheet. Despite the current quarter write-off the exploratory wells on the balance sheet are largely same due to further additions. ONGC s depreciation declined led by increase in useful life as per the companies Act 2013. Historically it has been observed that the D,D&A charges are normally higher during second half of the year as ONGC typically charges the well write-offs at the end of the year when it reviews its exploration performance. D,D&A (incl. write-off) +7% QoQ +64% YoY basis to INR64b (INRb) Depletion Depreciation Dry Wells Survey Others Average 80 60 40 20 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Historically, ONGC typically reviews its exploration portfolio for write-offs in 2H (INRb) 33 52 41 54 37 61 50 71 55 91 75 84 74 94 65 115 84 104 1HFY06 2HFY06 1HFY07 2HFY07 1HFY08 2HFY08 1HFY09 2HFY09 1HFY10 2HFY10 1HFY11 2HFY11 1HFY12 2HFY12 1HFY13 2HFY13 1HFY14 2HFY14 13 August 2014 5
Valuation and view We remain positive on ONGC due to (1) likely increase in net realization due to lower subsidy, driven by continued diesel price hikes, (2) Decision on gas price hike in FY15, and (c) attractive valuations. Key things to watch are: (1) continuance of diesel reforms, (2) clarity on benefit of gas price hike, (3) subsidy sharing, and (4) visibility on production growth. Upside potential to our gas price assumption: We model gas price of USD4.2/mmbtu in FY15 and assume est. USD5.3/6.3/mmbtu in FY16/17. USD1/mmbtu hike increases ONGC s EPS by ~6%. Timely execution of diesel reforms and passing on of benefits of gas price hike could lead to a re-rating. The stock trades at 9.4x FY16E EPS of INR42.7 with an implied dividend yield of ~3%. Our SOTP-based target price for ONGC is INR485. Buy. ONGC: Valuation Summary Source: MOSL ONGC: Key Assumptions 13 August 2014 6
ONGC: Story in charts Despite ad-hoc subsidy, last 10 yr EPS CAGR at ~10% (INR) EPS (Standalone) EPS (OVL) EPS (MRPL & Others) EPS (Consolidated) 42.7 34.3 6.8 3 28.3 31.0 3.2 5.2 6.1 23.1 22.7 24.5 3.3 2.4 3.0 18.9 19.6 2 26.8 24.5 2 27.1 34.5 Impressive RRR of >1 in last eight years Reserves/ Production (Years) RRR (x) - Actual 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Expect Production increase in FY15 led by development projects Expect Production increase in FY15 led by IOR / redevelopment projects Expect domestic production uptick in coming years (mmt) Oil Prodn (mmt) Gas Prodn (bcm) Total (mmtoe) 53.1 52.6 52.1 52.6 52.5 51.5 50.9 52.3 54.0 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.3 25.5 25.3 24.9 25.5 26.2 27.9 27.1 2 27.3 27.0 26.1 26.0 26.8 27.8 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Recent acquisitions to lead OVL to next growth phase (mmt) 8.0 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.4 9.6 10.9 Vietnam 8.8 7.2 8.1 Sakhalin-1 GNOP, Sudan 5A Sudan 6.3 AFPC, Syria 5.1 Colombia 3.9 Venezuela Imperial Brazil BC-10 Myanmar Carabobo Azerbaijan FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16E Mozambique 13 August 2014 7
ONGC: Story in charts Expect under recoveries to halve by FY16E (INRb) Under Diesel Kerosene LPG recoveries in INR b 1,610 1,385 1,399 1,033 461 780 948 750 Leading to increase in net realization (USD/bbl) Net Upstream Discount Gross 117 111 107 108 105 88 89 72 62 63 40 36 66 60 47 16 48 56 54 55 48 41 48 58 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY16E EPS sensitivity to domestic gas price 39.8 ONGC FY16E Cons EPS (INR) USD1/mmbtu Chg = 6% EPS Chg 42.2 45.1 48.1 51.0 54.0 Total oil & gas reserves are at 2004mmtoe ONGC JV OVL Total 1,667 2,004 637 962 601 36 33 207 31 724 1,033 1,331 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) 1P 2P 3P Structural policy changes boosting earnings: ONGC s fair value could rise to INR612 and to INR865 at nil subsidy ONGC fair value in grey shade 485 505 534 42.3 1.8 2.5 593 612 5.2 1.7 865 22.2 865 75.7 ONGC 1 Yr Fwd P/E Chart PE (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) 15 Median(x) Min(x) 13.5 12 9 9.8 9.5 7.2 1 6 Base EPS Kero hike (INR/ltr per month) LPG hike (INR10/cyl per month) Susidy share (@50%) Gas Price (@USD7/ mmbtu) Nil subsidy New likely EPS Jul-04 Oct-05 Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 13 August 2014 8
ONGC: an investment profile Company description ONGC, a Fortune 500 company, is an eminent exploration and production (E&P) company in India. With over 300 discoveries, it has established in-place reserves of 6.9b ton of oil equivalent (btoe), with ultimate reserves of 2.4btoe. It currently accounts for ~68% of India's domestic oil and gas production. Through its 100% subsidiary ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), it has equity investments in E&P blocks in 16 countries. Downstream presence is marked through its subsidiary (71.6% stake), MRPL. Key investment arguments Diesel reforms to significantly cut under recoveries: Recently announced diesel reforms (a) increasing diesel prices by INR /ltr every month and (b) Market pricing for bulk buyers; would lead to a significant cut in under recoveries (~46% reduction in under recoveries in FY16 over FY14). Gas price hike could add significantly to ONGC s earnings: We model gas price of USD4.2/mmbtu in FY15 and assume est. USD5.3/6.3/mmbtu in FY16/17. USD1/mmbtu hike increases ONGC s EPS by ~6%. Increased capex, IOR/EOR projects to provide production growth: Impressive RRR>1 for last 6 years. Production likely to be flat in short-term, however we expect volume growth in long term led by IOR/EOR, marginal fields and monetization of the discovered fields. Increased capex in the large unexplored NELP acreage could result in significant reserve accretion in future. Key investment risks Ad-hocism in subsidy sharing. Delay in implementation of announced diesel reforms. Acquisition of overseas assets at high valuations against stiff competition from China. Slowdown in deep water development due to technological barriers. Recent developments In FY15 ONGC reported 5 discoveries (2 New Prospects and 3 New Pools) Valuation and view The stock trades at 9.3xx FY16 EPS of INR42.7. Our SOTP-based target price for ONGC stands at INR485/sh. Buy. EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR) MOSL Forecast Consensus Forecast Variation (%) FY15 34.3 37.7-9.1 FY16 42.7 42.4 0.8 Target price and recommendation Current Target Upside Reco Price (INR) Price (INR) (%) 402 485 20.6 Buy Shareholding pattern (%) Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13 Promoter 68.9 68.9 69.2 DII 10.6 10.9 10.7 FII 6.9 6.7 6.3 Others 13.6 13.5 13.7 Notes: FII includes depository receipts Stock performance (1-year) 13 August 2014 9
Financials and valuation 13 August 2014 10
N O T E S 13 August 2014 11
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