Building Africa s s global bank

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Transcription:

Building Africa s s global bank Victor Osadolor Group Chief Finance Officer Merrill Lynch EEMEA Banks Investor Forum 10-11 September 2008

Forward looking statements Presentation and subsequent discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group. These forward-looking statements represent the Group s expectations or beliefs concerning future events and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. 2

Key messages Market leader in Nigeria Focus on earnings growth Careful cost control Best-in-class risk management Asset growth in challenging conditions Clear growth strategy 3

Key ratios 12m2007 9m2008 NIM/Average Interest Earning Assets 4.9% 6.4% Return on average Assets 2.1% 3.3% Return on average Equity 20% 22% Cost to Income ratio 62% 59% NPL/Gross Loans 4.4% 2.9% Loans/Assets 27% 40% Loans/Deposits 35% 54% Capital Adequacy ratio 22% 21% 4

Focus on shareholder returns

Rapid underlying EPS growth Earnings per share & dividends per share (N) 2.50 EPS DPS 2.23 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1.60 1.67 1.20 1.04 0.80 0.56 0.17 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 FY 2008 95% CAGR in underlying EPS since 2006 despite major capital raising @40% growth in EPS in 2008 2008 final dividend has not yet been declared Notes: 1 Following the merger with STB in 2005, UBA changed its financial year end from March to September in 2006. September 2006 results represent 18 months of trading 2 EPS based on weighted average number of shares outstanding over the year. DPS based on shares outstanding at end of relevant period 3 EPS & DPS have been adjusted to account for the effect of bonus share issues in 2007 and 2008 in order to give truer picture of underlying growth 4 FY2008 EPS based on extrapolation of first 9 months results. FY2008 DPS indicative only based on prior year 6

Increasing ROE Return on equity (%) 40% 35% 30% 34.3% Historical industry- 25% 20% 15% 19.8% +2% 21.8% leading ROE Short-term impact of 2007 capital raising 10% 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 Note: ROE calculated on simple average equity for the period 7

UBA provides value relative to sector Price/Earnings ratio (2008E) 25 20 15 10 5 Lowest current year PE ratio of Nigerian peers PE < 10 also presents value compared to emerging markets banks 0 UBA OCB FBN ICB UBN ZBL PHB GTB Access Source: Renaissance Capital estimates as at 8 August 2008 8

UBA provides value relative to sector Price/Earnings ratio (2009E) 20 15 PE = 6.5 for 2009 earnings 10 5 0 UBA OCB FBN ICB UBN ZBL PHB GTB Access Source: Renaissance Capital estimates as at 8 August 2008 9

Overview of UBA Group

Group structure 6 strategic business units & 3 strategic support units Board Of Directors Board Audit Committee GMD/CEO Group Executive Office Group Internal Audit CEO UBA Capital DMD Nigeria North DMD Nigeria South CEO UBA International CEO Retail Financial Services ED Products & Segment Banking Group CFO Group CRO Group COO 11

Largest Nigerian distribution network 3 distinct branch networks: myuba, UBA Prestige & UBA Microfinance 621 operational branches 1,205 ATMs in Nigeria 855 active POS machines >6.5 million customer accounts 72% deposit conversion from P&A 5,081 employees in Nigeria Note: All operational data as at 31 July 2008 12

Nigerian market leader Market share Market size Market position Cards volume >30% 24.4 million 1 ATMs 1 >20% 5,894 POS terminals 1 >30% 2,746 Web acquired transactions value >40% N625 million 1 Card usage on mobile channels >30% 15,046 1 Source: Interswitch at end of July 2008 13

Expanding international operations Nigeria Burkina Faso Tchad Dubai India China Senegal Gambia Sierra Leone Liberia Cote d Ivoire Ghana Cameroun Gabon Uganda Kenya Tanzania Zambia UBA Capital Europe UBA New York branch Operational South Africa Regulatory approval 14

Track record of earnings growth

Focus on delivering earnings growth Gross earnings and profit before tax & exceptionals (N billion) 150 109.5 120.3 100 50 90.4 75% CAGR in gross earnings 163% CAGR in PBT&X 0 12.8 29.5 34.9 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 Gross earnings PBT&X Note: 2006 FY was 18 months. 9 months to June 2008 are unaudited 16

Consistent income growth Gross earnings (N billion) 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 60% 75.3 34.3 39.0 39.1 42.2 22.1 24.8 28.4 120.3 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 9M07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 9M08 Consistent QoQ growth Gross earnings +60% for 9 months of 2008 Capital raising and expanding operations in 2H07 facilitated quantum leap in performance Note: Quarterly results are unaudited 17

Consistent profit growth Profit before tax & exceptionals (N billion) 40 30 20 10 0 77% 19.7 13.0 9.8 10.6 11.2 5.3 6.5 7.9 34.9 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 9M07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 9M08 Consistent QoQ growth PBT&X +77% for 9 months of 2008 Note: Quarterly results are unaudited 18

Growth in both interest & fee income Operating income (N billion) 100 80 80.8 85.6 Sundry 2% Transaction 24% 60 45.1 56% 55.9 48.6 57% Trading 9% 40 20 35.7 44% 49% 51% 27.4 28.5 36.7 43% Fund-based 65% 0 12m 2007 9m 2007 9m 2008 Other income Net interest income Capital raising in 2007 reweighted balance of income towards fundbased sources Notes: 1 Results for 9-months ended 30 June 2007 and 30 June 2008 are unaudited 2 Operating income excludes provision for non-performing loans 19

Core business remains Nigerian banking Gross earnings (1H08) Profit before tax & exceptionals (1H08) Nigerian banking (85%) Nigerian banking (83%) Ex-Nigeria banking (9%) Non-banking 1 (6%) Ex-Nigeria banking (6%) Non-banking 1 (11%) Note 1: Non-banking operations encompass all subsidiary activities including investment banking, asset management, custody, registrars, stock-broking & insurance-broking 20

Increasing efficiency

Increasing interest margin Net interest margin/average interest earning assets (%) 8% 6% 6.0% 4.9% +1.5%% 6.4% Capital raising in 2007 impacted returns Asset base rapidly re- 4% weighting towards higher yielding loans 2% 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 Note: Denominator calculated on simple average for the relevant period 22

Leveraging economies of scale Cost-to-income ratio (%) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 77.9% 61.7% -1.7%% 59.2% 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 Negative short-term impact of merger in 2006 Group-shared services- project covering entire bank Target 50% by 2011 Note: Cost/Income ratio calculated as Operating expenses /(Net interest income + other banking income provision of loans) 23

Making asset base work harder Return on average assets (%) 4% 3% +1.2% 3.3% Strong ROA improvement as lending grows 2% 2.0% 2.1% 1% 0% 18m 2006 12m 2007 9m 2008 Note: ROA calculated on simple average assets for the relevant period 24

Improving asset quality NPL ratio¹ 12.6% Comments NPL ratio improving due to recoveries in specific provisioning 4.4% 2.9% 2006 2007 9m 2008 Coverage ratio² 65.2% 102.2% 103.6% 2006 2007 9m 2008 Notes: 1 NPL ratio defined as non-accrual portion of overdue loans as a percentage of gross loans 2 Coverage ratio defined as provisions for loan losses as a percentage of non-performing loans. Provisions include interest in suspense 25

Sound risk management

Sound capital management Capital adequacy ratios 25% 20% Tier I Tier II 21.9% 1.6% 20.9% 1.4% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15.2% 4.1% 20.3% 19.5% 11.1% 30 Sep 06 30 Sep 07 30 Jun 08 Highly liquid position Regulatory minimum = 10% UBA prudential guide-line = 15% Risk-Weighted Assets (N billion) 318.8 771.4 889.5 27

Investment grade risk ratings Short-term ratings Local International Fitch: F1 B GCR: A1+ Long-term ratings Local International Fitch: A+ B+ GCR: AA+ BB- 28

Strong corporate governance framework Responsible for: Setting & approval of: Risk philosophy Risk mgt principles/policies Risk appetite & tolerance UBA BOARD BOARD COMMITEES Risk Mgt; Finance & General Purpose; Nomination & Evaluation; Ethics & Corp. Governance Accountable to: Stakeholders Regulators The community Implementation of: Risk mgt principles Approving of: Risk policies Risk limits Oversight of: Risk profile of the group Risk limits per business unit/subsidiary & risk type Control & compliance environment Management of: All risk exposures in the business unit/subsidiary GMD/CEO; Group EXCO MANAGEMENT COMMITTEES EXCO; ALCO; COC; CRESCO; R/MGT ENTERPRISE-WIDE RISK MGT Risk Mgt Dimension Risk Control Departments Business units/subsidiaries Board of Directors Regulators Stakeholders Board of Directors Group Risk Committee GMD/CEO CRO 29

Risk management framework Enterprise-wide risk management Operating executive Audit & Investigation Risk Management Risk Control Financial Focus Credit risk Market risk Operational focus Operational risk Info sec risk Physical security risk mgmt Strategic focus Assurance (internal control) Compliance Legal Business units/subsidiaries risk mgt. Subsidiaries/foreign branches Commercial/Corporate Retail Investment Global Enterprise-wide risk management across functions 30

Stable capital structure Shareholders Staff (6%) Foreign investors (16%) Local investors (78%) Comments 17,245m outstanding shares (after June 2008 bonus issue) Foreign institutions include IFC (1.8%) & African Development Bank (1.6%) Significant shareholders are Stanbic Nominees (10%), BGL Securities (9.4%) & First Dominion Investment (6.5%) Note: Shareholder split is UBA estimate based on Registry records at 15 May 2008 31

Asset growth in challenging market conditions

Growth in corporate & retail lending Net loans by type (N billion) 500 Retail Corporate 454 400 300 320 291 128% CAGR in net loans & advances 200 100 0 195 110 67 125 164 43 Sep-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Significant growth in corporate lending in 3Q08 Retail lending continues steady growth 33

Significant capacity for loan growth Assets by type (Jun 08) Net loans by type (Jun 08) T-bills + Gov. bonds (14%) Corporate (64%) Cash + STMM (30%) Net Loans (40%) Other (16%) Retail (36%) Total assets = N1,146b 34

Challenging deposit-taking environment Deposits (N billion) 1,000 750 500 906 865 776 Sep-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Deposit growth slowed in 2008 due to equity market activity Uniform accounting year-end caused intense competition for deposits & race to be biggest Following withdrawal of requirement we have reached N1,016b by end of August 2008 35

Focus on improved deposit mix Deposits by class (Sep 2007) Deposits by class (Jun 2008) Time (34%) Time (26%) Demand (53%) Demand (58%) Savings (13%) Savings (16%) Choosing not to compete for expensive time-deposits 36

Growth strategy

Africa s global bank Global presence wherever business with Africa is done Representation in key money centres globally Leading bank in African region Operational in 30 African countries by 2010 Dominant leader in Nigeria Target 25-30% market share in all businesses 38

Nigerian market leadership built on key strengths Financial size & profitability Dynamic & visionary leadership team Strong brand equity Large & profitable customer base Wide network including alternative channels Wide product range & innovation 39

Nigerian market segmentation Different entities for different clientele Prestige Banking HNIs MNCs Corporate Banking Energy Banking UBA Global Markets UBA RFS myuba Mass Affluent Local Corporates myuba Mass Market Small & Medium Scale Businesses Individuals Businesses UBA Stockbrokers UBA Asset Management UBA Insurance Brokers 40

Outlook

Outlook for 2009 Reversal of uniform year-end to take some heat out of market UBA FX Mart & Microfinance Bank already launched with rest of Consumer-banking platform imminent Strategic partnership with Arsenal FC to stimulate product demand with more partnerships to follow Aggressive international expansion Mobile banking Internal transformation through IT & shared services CDB partnership IFRS & Basle II compliance by end of 2009 42

Q&A

Appendices

Detailed earnings (N million) 12 months to 31 March 18 months to 30 September 12 months to 30 September 9 months to 30 June 2005 2006 2007 2008 Gross earnings 26,089 90,447 109,512 120,256 Interest income 14,456 57,693 73,724 Interest expense (3,490) (26,954) (28,649) Net interest income 10,966 30,739 45,075 Other banking income 11,633 32,754 35,733 Operating expenses (16,039) (45,111) (47,581) Provision for loans & other accounts (40) (5,571) (3,702) Profit before tax & exceptional items 6,520 12,811 29,525 34,889 Exceptional items - - (4,161) (1,740) Profit before tax 6,520 12,811 25,364 33,149 Taxation (1,599) (1,261) (3,923) (4,301) Profit after tax 4,921 11,550 21,441 28,848 Minority interest - - 99 4,921 11,550 21,540 Transfer to statutory reserves (697) (1,720) (2,975) Transfer to SSI reserve (624) (1,147) - Transfer to bonus issue reserve - - - Proposed dividend (1,836) (7,060) - Transfer to general reserve (6,685) (1,623) (18,565) Earnings per share - basic (k) 263 187 261 Dividend per share- actual (k) 60 100 120 45

Detailed financial position (N million) As at 31 March As at 30 September As at 30 September 2005 2006 2007 Assets Cash and short-term funds 110,517 471,494 570,315 Treasury bills and government bonds 59,832 207,341 157,519 Loans and advances 67,610 109,896 320,406 Other assets 4,455 35,618 44,926 Investment securities 2,193 26,597 48,129 Fixed assets 6,176 33,191 49,747 Total assets 250,783 884,137 1,191,042 Liabilities Deposits 205,110 776,135 971,819 Other liabilities 19,068 47,784 43,825 Taxation payable 2,535 1,644 5,149 Deferred tax 1,073 1,502 994 Dividend payable 1,878 7,102 42 Borrowings 1,676 1,135 1,135 Total liabilities 231,340 835,302 1,022,964 Equity Share capital 1,530 3,530 5,748 Share premium - 23,209 119,066 Other reserves 17,207 10,565 31,674 Fixed assets revaluation reserve - 11,231 11,231 Shareholder s funds 18,737 48,535 167,719 Minority interest - 300 359 18,737 48,835 168,078 Liabilities and equity 250,077 884,137 1,191,042 Acceptances and guarantees 81,821 167,184 451,110 46

Detailed cashflow (N million) As at 31 March As at 30 September As at 30 September Cash flows from operating activities 2005 2006 2007 Interest and commission receipts 25,644 89,093 105,767 Foreign exchange income received 445 1,354 3,657 Interest expense (3,490) (26,954) (28,649) Cash payments to employees and suppliers (14,881) (37,790) (45,999) Income tax paid (1,470) (2,757) (926) Operating profit before changes in operating assets 6,248 22,946 33,850 Changes in Operating Assets/ Liabilities Loans and advances (11,474) (47,730) (213,789) Exchange reserve (3,175) (822) - Term loan - 1,135 - Borrowing (1,709) (1,676) - Other assets 10,888 (31,845) (11,065) Deposit and current accounts 53,181 571,025 143,232 Other liabilities (12,754) 28,716 (3,684) Managed funds 0 0 52,452 Net cash from operating activities 41,205 541,749 996 Cash flows from Investing Activities Purchase of fixed assets (1,315) (12,470) (20,645) Proceeds from sale of fixed assets 16 62 94 Exchange difference on fixed assets (1) - 5,000 Proceeds from the disposal of investments - 8,684 1,244 Purchase of treasury bills (17,946) (26,050) (26,755) Purchase of investments (121) (27,703) - Net cash used in investing activities (19,367) (57,477) (41,062) Cash flows from Financing Activities Proceeds on sale of shares 0 0 102,968 Share issue expenses 0 0 (5,599) Dividend paid (1,530) (1,836) (7,060) Net cash used in financing activities (1,530) (1,836) 90,309 Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 20,308 482,436 50,243 Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 149,252 169,560 651,996 Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period 169,560 651,996 702,239 47

A positive outlook for Nigeria Real GDP Indicators Growth in non-oil sector 480 440 400 Real per Capita GDP Real per capita GDP growth 12% 8% 10.7% 4.4% Real GDP Growth 8.6% 7.4% 7.2% 6.0% Real non-oil GDP growth 9.4% 8.0% 5.6% 4.3% 8.0% 7.0% 360 4% 320 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F Population (million) 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 US$/Naira exchange rate 130 125 120 115 135.0 110 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook April 2008, Bloomberg 48

Brief history of UBA 1949 French & British Bank Limited ( FBB ) commences business 1961 Incorporation of UBA to take over the banking business of the FBB 1970 IPO on the NSE 1984 Establishment of NY branch 1998 GDR programme established 2004 Establishment of UBA Ghana 2005 Merger with Standard Trust Bank Acquisition of Continental Trust Bank New senior management team in place 2006 Purchase & assumption of Trade Bank out of liquidation 2007 Successful Public Offer and Rights Offer Purchase & assumption of 3 liquidated banks: City Express Bank, Metropolitan Bank & African Express Banks Investment in Afrinvest in UK (re-branded UBA Capital) 2008 Purchase & assumption of 2 liquidated banks: Gulf Bank & Liberty Bank Establishment of UBA Cameroun, UBA Cote d Ivoire, UBA Uganda, UBA Sierra Leone & UBA Liberia Launch of UBA Microfinance Bank Launch of UBA FX Mart (Bureau de change) 49

Consensus estimates 12m to 30 September 2008 Mean High Low N billion N billion N billion Sales 170.3 181.8 155.3 Profit before tax 51.6 63.1 37.3 Profit after tax 44.8 55.4 31.6 N N N Target share price 48.24 62.48 25.82 BVPS 10.95 11.14 10.64 EPS 2.62 3.21 1.83 DPS 1.42 1.87 0.92 Note: consensus estimates current as at 7 August 2008 50