Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) 23 January 2019 IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE TODAY Economic data is an important factor that will have an impact on market direction. There are a number of economic figures releases daily. Below are some important data to watch out for, which would have impact to today s market. No Time Event Actual Forecast Previous 1 11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 2 12:00 BoJ Press Conference - - - 3 13:00 Singapore CPI (YoY) (Dec) - 0.4% 0.3% 4 23:00 Eurozone Primary Consumer Confidence (Jan) - -6.5-6.2 Market Update (Fundamentals): 1) Global stock index futures: Pared early losses despite market pessimism on the global economy Prices as at 10.30am: Mini Dow Futures: +0.20% Mini S&P 500 Futures: -0.06% FTSE China A50 Futures: +1.10% MSCI Singapore Free Index (SiMSCI) Futures: +0.46% Source: Bloomberg/ Phillip Futures Global indices futures pared early losses this morning, posting modest gains. This is despite market pessimism on the global economy still weighing down markets, and capping gains. The Davos summit that began yesterday was lacking the presence of UK and US. Both leaders were back home settling domestic issues, namely Brexit and the US government partial shutdown. This resulted in less focus to be place on the talks as compared to past years due to the absence of these major powers. Meanwhile, corporate executives have joint the IMF in warning that the global economy is slowing faster than expected, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. US-China relations were also brought back into spotlight after there were reports that US and China have cancelled preparatory trade talks due to a lack of progress. Although White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow subsequently denied it, he did also mention that enforcement and structural issues poses certain level of difficulties. We note that US- China relations will remain as a key market theme. Thus, eyes will be on the development of the situation, and market sentiments will be swayed based on the ongoing developments. Hence, with more uncertainty ahead, coupled with the ongoing earning season that is set to be weaker, we foresee more potential downside in global indices. On the US front, the development on the US Partial shutdown will be key. Senate leaders have finally agreed to vote on proposals to reopen the government that will take place tomorrow, although President Trump could eventually reject it, as he had repeatedly indicated he would reject any proposal that does not include budget for the wall. Hence, any failure to break this deadlock could result in further selloff in US indices. On the Chinese front, positivity was observed after the PBOC offered 257.5 billion yuan of liquidity, to banks to encourage banks lending to small businesses. This is seen as support measures by the Chinese government to avert the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Hence, should the pace of reform in China continue and increase, coupled with the potential of China opening its doors wider to other nations, it would give more upside potential for the FTSE China A50 Futures. Locally, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat expressed his upbeatness on the One Belt One Road initiative during the World Economic Forum in Davos. The other panel members chimed in, and expressed that the mega project will create plenty of economic opportunities and growth for countries. Thus with Singapore a strong support for this initiative, the positive benefit could act as temporary catalyst for SIMSCi futures. Written By: Samuel Siew Rep No.: SWE300299240 Phone: (65) 6531 5474 Email: samuelsiewwe@phillip.com.sg pfpl_commentaries@phillip.com.sg Please carefully read the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2) Currencies: GBP saw strength as "hard Brexit" possibility lowered; JPY little changed after BOJ announcement The GBP saw some strength after the UK Parliament moved closer to stop a "hard Brexit". The main opposition Labour Party is now increasingly likely to support a proposal to extend the 29th March exit day deadline, which decreases the possibility of a "hard Brexit". However, much will also be dependent of whether the EU is agreeable for the extension. The EU is currently split, with some pushing for an extension of as much as a year to facilitate the possibility of a second referendum, while others oppose a postponement of any sort and want pressure to be put on the UK to accept a deal as soon as possible. Moreover, the impasse persists in the UK Parliament to decide the next move for Brexit. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's "Plan B" Brexit plans win little favour from the Parliament, while the Labour opposition party is pushing for parliament vote on new Brexit referendum. Therefore, the GBP is expected to remain news driven, as investors are likely to adopt a cautious approach until there is more clarity of the situation. It is to be noted that although risk of a hard Brexit have decreased recently, it is still not ruled out yet, and its re-emergence could sink the GBP again. The BOJ did not increase rates as expected during its policy meeting today. However, it did lower its Fiscal 2019 inflation targets. This increases the possibility of the BOJ raising rates should its inflation rates meet the lowered inflation targets this year. Nonetheless, the JPY had little change after the decision. This could be due to the fact there is still no strong market expectations of the new inflation targets being met anytime soon. Going forward, close attention have to be paid towards the Japanese economy as well, as the BOJ have listed many risk factors. This could prompt the BOJ to increase their easing measure if the economic numbers falter further. Technical Chart pick of the day: USD/JPY Bullish On a technical perspective, the trend is bullish, with prices above the 20, 40, 100 and 200 EMA. A bullish crossover formed, with the 20 EMA crossing the 40 EMA. This indicates that buying strength is present. The uptrend line is still intact. Based on the pivot point analysis, prices are currently above the pivot level. This signifies bullishness. Resistance: R1: 109.649, R2: 109.945, R3: 110.495 Support: S1: 109.099, S2: 108.845, S3: 108.295 USD/JPY Hourly Chart PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 2
Economic Calendar United States 01/22/19 23:00 Existing Home Sales MoM Dec -- -1.13% 1.90% -- 01/22/19 23:00 Existing Home Sales Dec -- 5.26m 5.32m -- 01/23/19 20:00 MBA Mortgage Applications Jan-18 -- -- 13.50% -- 01/23/19 22:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM Nov -- -- 0.30% -- 01/23/19 23:00 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jan -- -- -8 -- 01/24/19 21:30 Initial Jobless Claims Jan-19 -- -- 213k -- 01/24/19 21:30 Continuing Claims Jan-12 -- -- 1737k -- 01/24/19 22:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jan-20 -- -- 58.1 -- 01/24/19 22:45 Markit US Composite PMI Jan P -- -- 54.4 -- 01/24/19 22:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan P -- -- 53.8 -- 01/24/19 22:45 Markit US Services PMI Jan P -- -- 54.4 -- 01/24/19 23:00 Leading Index Dec -- 0.00% 0.20% -- 01/25/19 0:00 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Jan -- -- 3 21.0938 01/25/19 21:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec P -- -- -- -- 01/25/19 21:30 Durables Ex Transportation Dec P -- -- -- -- 01/25/19 21:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Dec P -- -- -- -- 01/25/19 21:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Dec P -- -- -- -- 01/25/19 23:00 New Home Sales Dec -- -- -- -- 01/25/19 23:00 New Home Sales MoM Dec -- -- -- -- India - - - - - - - - PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 3
China 01/21/19 10:00 Retail Sales YoY Dec -- 8.18% 8.10% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Retail Sales YTD YoY Dec -- 8.96% 9.10% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Industrial Production YoY Dec -- 5.31% 5.40% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Industrial Production YTD YoY Dec -- 6.15% 6.30% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Dec -- 5.99% 5.90% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Property Investment YoY Dec -- -- 9.70% -- 01/21/19 10:00 Surveyed Jobless Rate Dec -- -- 4.80% -- 01/21/19 10:00 GDP YoY 4Q -- 6.35% 6.50% -- 01/21/19 10:00 GDP SA QoQ 4Q -- 1.47% 1.60% -- 01/21/19 10:00 GDP YTD YoY 4Q -- 6.60% 6.70% -- Singapore 01/23/19 13:00 CPI NSA MoM Dec -- -- 0.20% -- 01/23/19 13:00 CPI YoY Dec -- 0.48% 0.30% -- 01/23/19 13:00 CPI Core YoY Dec -- 1.80% 1.70% -- 01/23/19 16:00 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Jan-23 -- -- 25920 -- 01/23/19 16:00 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Jan-23 -- -- 32909 -- 01/23/19 16:00 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Jan-23 -- -- 32200 -- 01/25/19 13:00 Industrial Production SA MoM Dec -- -- 2.80% -- 01/25/19 13:00 Industrial Production YoY Dec -- 5.33% 7.60% -- 01/25/19 URA Private Home Prices QoQ 4Q F -- -- -0.10% -- PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 4
Japan 01/21/19 15:00 Convenience Store Sales YoY Dec -- -- 0.60% -- 01/22/19 12:00 Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY Dec -- -- 2.80% -- 01/22/19 13:00 Supermarket Sales YoY Dec -- -- -2.50% -- 01/23/19 7:50 Trade Balance Dec -- - 78.25b - 737.3b - 738b 01/23/19 07:50 Trade Balance Adjusted Dec -- - 312.79b - 492.2b -- 01/23/19 07:50 Exports YoY Dec -- -2.13% 0.10% -- 01/23/19 7:50 Imports YoY Dec -- 3.71% 12.50% -- 01/23/19 12:30 All Industry Activity Index MoM Nov -- -0.36% 1.90% -- 01/23/19 13:30 Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Dec -- -- 0.20% -- 01/23/19 13:30 Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Dec -- -- -0.60% -- 01/23/19 14:00 Machine Tool Orders YoY Dec F -- -- -18.30% -- 01/23/19 BOJ Policy Balance Rate Jan-23 -- -- -0.10% -- 01/23/19 BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target Jan-23 -- -- 0.00% -- 01/24/19 7:50 Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jan-18 -- -- 2209.9b -- 01/24/19 7:50 Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jan-18 -- -- - 172.5b -- 01/24/19 07:50 Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jan-18 -- -- 711.7b -- 01/24/19 7:50 Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Jan-18 -- -- - 428.2b -- 01/24/19 8:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan P -- -- 52.6 -- 01/24/19 13:00 Leading Index CI Nov F -- -- 99.3 -- 01/24/19 13:00 Coincident Index Nov F -- -- 103 -- 01/25/19 7:30 Tokyo CPI YoY Jan -- 0.15% 0.30% 0.40% 01/25/19 7:30 Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Jan -- 0.88% 0.90% -- 01/25/19 7:30 Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY Jan -- 0.57% 0.60% -- PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 5
Australia 01/23/19 7:30 Westpac Leading Index MoM Dec -- -- -0.09% -- 01/23/19 8:00 Skilled Vacancies MoM Dec -- -- -0.10% -- 01/24/19 6:00 CBA Australia PMI Mfg Jan P -- -- 54 -- 01/24/19 6:00 CBA Australia PMI Services Jan P -- -- 52.7 -- 01/24/19 6:00 CBA Australia PMI Composite Jan P -- -- 52.9 -- 01/24/19 08:30 Employment Change Dec -- 17.12k 37.0k -- 01/24/19 8:30 Full Time Employment Change Dec -- -- -6.4k -- 01/24/19 8:30 Unemployment Rate Dec -- 5.06% 5.10% -- 01/24/19 8:30 Part Time Employment Change Dec -- -- 43.4k -- 01/24/19 8:30 Participation Rate Dec -- 65.67% 65.70% -- New Zealand 01/22/19 5:30 Performance Services Index Dec -- -- 53.5 -- 01/23/19 5:45 CPI QoQ 4Q -- 0.01% 0.90% -- 01/23/19 5:45 CPI YoY 4Q -- 1.79% 1.90% -- 01/24/19 10:00 Credit Card Spending MoM Dec -- -- 0.40% -- 01/24/19 10:00 Credit Card Spending YoY Dec -- -- 6.10% -- 01/25/19 5:45 Net Migration SA Nov -- -- 4660 -- PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 6
United Kingdom 01/21/19 8:01 Rightmove House Prices MoM Jan -- -- -1.50% -- 01/21/19 8:01 Rightmove House Prices YoY Jan -- -- 0.70% -- 01/22/19 17:30 Claimant Count Rate Dec -- -- 2.80% -- 01/22/19 17:30 Jobless Claims Change Dec -- -- 21.9k -- 01/22/19 17:30 Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Nov -- 3.27% 3.30% -- 01/22/19 17:30 Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Nov -- 3.30% 3.30% -- 01/22/19 17:30 ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Nov -- 4.11% 4.10% -- 01/22/19 17:30 Employment Change 3M/3M Nov -- 79.00k 79k -- 01/22/19 17:30 Public Finances (PSNCR) Dec -- -- 4.4b -- 01/22/19 17:30 Central Government NCR Dec -- -- 8.4b -- 01/22/19 17:30 Public Sector Net Borrowing Dec -- 1.37b 6.3b -- 01/22/19 17:30 PSNB ex Banking Groups Dec -- 2.15b 7.2b -- 01/23/19 19:00 CBI Trends Total Orders Jan -- 5 8 01/23/19 19:00 CBI Trends Selling Prices Jan -- 10.67 14 -- 01/23/19 19:00 CBI Business Optimism Jan -- -23.33-16 -- 01/25/19 17:30 UK Finance Loans for Housing Dec -- 38950 39403 -- 01/25/19 19:00 CBI Retailing Reported Sales Jan -- -2.33-13 01/25/19 19:00 CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales Jan -- -- 10 -- PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 7
Eurozone 01/22/19 18:00 ZEW Survey Expectations Jan -- -- -21 -- 01/23/19 23:00 Consumer Confidence Jan A -- -6.93-6.2 -- 01/24/19 17:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan P -- 51.34 51.4 -- 01/24/19 17:00 Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan P -- 51.47 51.2 -- 01/24/19 17:00 Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan P -- 51.28 51.1 -- 01/24/19 20:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate Jan-24 -- 0.00% 0.00% -- 01/24/19 20:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility Jan-24 -- 0.25% 0.25% -- 01/24/19 20:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate Jan-24 -- -0.40% -0.40% -- Source: Bloomberg/ Phillip Futures Note: Releases highlighted in red denote indicators which are deemed by the analyst to potentially cause significant market movements PHILLIP FUTURES PTE LTD 8
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