The Council of State Governments Capitol Ideas Webinar Series: Alternative Poverty Measures www.csg.org
CSG Webinar: Alternative Poverty Measures Presenters Elise Gould Economic Policy Institute Timothy Smeeding University of Wisconsin Madison The Council of State Governments www.csg.org
CSG Webinar: Alternative Poverty Measures Elise Gould Director of Health Policy Research Economic Policy Institute Research areas include employersponsored health insurance, inequality and health, poverty, mobility, and the employer tax exclusion. The Council of State Governments www.csg.org
Poverty Measures for the United States Kathleen S. Short, PhD Webinar The Council of State Governments October 1, 2013
The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The author accepts responsibility for all errors. This paper is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau staff. It has undergone more limited review than official publications. 5
Official Poverty Measure First adopted in 1969 Continues under OMB Statistical Directive 14 The 2011 official poverty rate for the nation was 15.0 percent. Not changed from 2010 46.2 million people in poverty 6
National Academy of Sciences Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance May 1995 report, Measuring Poverty: A New Approach The official measure does not account for Provision of in-kind benefits Necessary expenses (taxes, health care, work) Changes in family or household structure Higher standards and levels of living since 1965 Geographic price differences among regions Recommended Changes to Improve the Measure of Poverty in the U.S. http://www.census.gov/hhes/povmeas/methodology/nas/report.html 7
Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) Observations from the Interagency Technical Working Group - March 2, 2010 Will not replace the official poverty measure Will not be used for resource allocation or program eligibility Census Bureau and BLS responsible for improving and updating the measure Continued research and improvement Based on National Academy of Sciences expert panel recommendations Measuring Poverty: A New Approach (Citro and Michael, 1995) http://www.census.gov/hhes/povmeas/methodology/supplemental/research/short_researchspm2011.pdf 8
Economic Unit of Analysis Official Families or unrelated individuals Supplemental All related individuals who live at the same address, any co-resident unrelated children who are cared for by the family (such as foster children), and any cohabitors and their relatives 9
Comparing the Official measure and SPM Threshold Concept Official Measure Cost of minimum food diet for a two adult/two child family in 1963 times three to cover all other expenses Supplemental Measure Expenditures over the most recent 5 years on food, clothing, and shelter (including utilities and all mortgage expenses) (FCSU) from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys Range around 33 rd percentile all family units with exactly 2 children (adjusted, when needed, to be equivalent to 2 adult/2 child family unit) plus 20 percent to cover all other expenses. 10
Threshold Adjustments: by shelter type Official No adjustments Supplemental Adjust by distinguishing differences in shelter expenditures by renters, owners with a mortgage, and owners without a mortgage 11
Threshold Adjustments: family size and composition Official Separately developed thresholds by family type; lower thresholds for elderly singles and couples Supplemental Reference family threshold adjusted by use of a three parameter equivalence scale, which assumes children need less than adults and economies of scale for larger families 12
Threshold Adjustments: by geographic area Official No adjustments Supplemental Adjust for housing cost differences using five years of ACS data on rental costs Make adjustments by MSA and non-msas in each state Continue to research interarea price indices 13
Official and SPM Thresholds for 2 Adults and 2 Children Economic Units: 2011 $30,000 Supplemental Poverty Thresholds $25,000 $22,811 $25,703 $21,175 $25,222 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- Official Owners with a mortgage Owners without a mortgage Renters 14
40,000 Official and Research SPM Thresholds for Two Adult, Two Child Units with Geographic Adjustments: 2011 35,000 30,000 32,057 35,151 25,000 22,811 25,222 20,000 17,718 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Official Threshold SPM Renter DC MSA renter Oklahoma metro remainder - owner no mortgage SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara - owner with mortgage
Income/Resource Definition Official Gross (before-tax) cash income from all sources Supplemental Gross (before-tax) cash income PLUS value of noncash federal benefits for FCSU SNAP, school lunch, WIC Housing subsidies LIHEAP Tax credits (EITC) MINUS nondiscretionary expenses Taxes, state and federal income taxes and payroll taxes (FICA) Medical out-of-pocket expenses (MOOP) Work related expenses, commuting and childcare while working Child support paid 16 16
200.0 Additions and Subtractions: All SPM Family Groups 0.0-200.0 Billion $ -400.0-600.0-800.0-1,000.0 SNAP School lunch WIC Housing subsidy/cap LIHEAP Ref. tax credits +/- Taxes before credits FICA Work expenses Childcare MOOP B$ 39.0 10.6 2.2 21.7 1.7 58.5 0.0-969.3-379.9-188.8-39.1-487.8-18.5 Child support paid 17
Additions and Subtractions: Poor* 30.0 20.0 10.0 Billion $ 0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0 SNAP School lunch WIC Housing subsidy/cap LIHEAP Ref. tax credits +/- Taxes before credits FICA Work expenses Childcare MOOP B$ 25.8 4.3 1.1 17.3 0.9 22.0-5.6-7.6-10.7-1.8-28.1-0.9 Child support paid 18
Figure 1: Poverty rates using two measures for total population and by age group: 2011 25 20 15 Percent 10 5 0 All People Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and older Official** 15.1 22.3 13.7 8.7 SPM 16.1 18.1 15.5 15.1 **Includes unrelated individuals under age 15. Source: Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. 19 19
Figure 4: Distibution of people by income-to-threshold ratios: 2011 100% 90% 17.7 80% 35.1 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 30.5 19.4 34.2 32 4.0 or more 2.0 to 3.99 1.0 to 1.99 0.5 to 1.0 less than.5 10% 0% 8.4 10.9 6.7 5.2 Official** ** Includes unrelated individuals under age 15. Source: Current Population Survey, 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. SPM 20
State level estimates Use the ACS Three year averages from CPS SPM estimates for 2009-2011 available Compare OPM to SPM for states 14 states higher with SPM 26 states lower 10 not statistically different California higher 7.3 percentage points from OPM 16.3 % to SPM 23.5 %
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4.0 Difference in SPM rate after including each element 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.7 Percentage point difference 0.0-2.0-4.0-2.9-1.6-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1 0.1 0.5-6.0-8.0-8.3-10.0 Social Security Refundabl e tax credits SNAP Unemploy ment insurance SSI Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch TANF/Gen eral Assistance WIC LIHEAP Child support paid Federal income tax Difference -8.3-2.9-1.6-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 3.4 FICA Work expense MOOP 23
Difference in SPM rates after including each element 8.0 6.0 Percentage point difference 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 Refundabl e tax credits SNAP Unemploy ment insurance SSI Housing subsidies Child support received School lunch TANF/Gen eral Assistance WIC LIHEAP Child support paid Federal income tax Children -6.2-2.8-1.3-0.8-1.4-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.2-0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 65 years and over -0.2-0.7-0.4-1.3-1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 7.0 FICA Work expense MOOP 24
Contact: Kathleen Short U.S. Census Bureau kathleen.s.short@census.gov 25
EPI Family Budget Calculator Elise Gould Director of Health Policy and Research Economic Policy Institute
EPI Family Budgets: Measure the income families need to secure an adequate but modest standard of living A broader measure of economic welfare Provides an additional metric for academics and policy experts looking for comprehensive measures of economic security and cost of living adjuster across communities. Useful for policy makers considering the implications of business development and other local labor growth for their community www.epi.org 27
Context Developed initially in 2000 to fill the void the BLS left when their program, which published measures of a modest but adequate lifestyle, was discontinued Six family types: from 1 parent, 1 child to 2 parents, 3 children Estimate community-specific costs of housing, food, child care, transportation, health care, other necessities, and taxes www.epi.org 28
Methodology (1/3) Housing. Housing costs are based on the Department of Housing and Urban Development's fair market rents (HUD 2013). The costs represent rents at the 40th percentile for privately owned, structurally safe, and sanitary rental housing of a modest nature with suitable amenities. Food. Food costs reflect the second-least expensive plan taken from the Department of Agriculture report Official USDA Food Plans (USDA 2013). This plan assumes almost all food is bought at the grocer and then prepared at home. Child care. Child care expenses reflect the cost of center-based child care for four-year-olds and school-age children, in urban and rural areas by state, as reported by the Child Care Aware of America. March 9, 2009 www.epi.org 29
Methodology (2/3) Transportation. Transportation expenses reflect the costs of owning and operating a car for work and other necessary trips, using the National Household Travel Survey. The cost per mile is provided by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS 2012). Health care. Health care expenses have two components: insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenditures. Premiums are based on total employer-sponsored health insurance premiums using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Insurance Component and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employee Benefits. Out-of-pocket medical expenditures are calculated for adults and children separately by region and are differentiated by area for those with employer-sponsored health insurance (HHS 2013a). March 9, 2009 www.epi.org 30
Methodology (3/3) Other necessities. EPI s basic family budgets include the costs of other necessities such as clothing, personal care expenses, household supplies, reading materials, school supplies, and other miscellaneous items of necessity from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (BLS 2013a). Taxes: Taxes are calculated with the National Bureau of Economic Research s Internet TAXSIM (NBER 2013). Using post tax income from the previous spending categories, we back out information on federal personal income taxes, state income taxes, and federal Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes. March 9, 2009 www.epi.org 31
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EPI Family budgets compared to the FPL and the SPM The official poverty measure (FPL) has no geographic variation and is outdated (e.g. spending on items such as housing and medical care take up a larger share of family budgets today) however, it is the only historical series available and it provides an important yardstick for many welfare programs. The SPM improves on the FPL by providing state and MSA measures (allowing the housing component to vary geographically), and provides more in depth analysis on policy implications (e.g., EITC, SNAP) EPI Family budgets use geographic variability in constructing most components, measures items differently (e.g. child care costs), and constructs family budgets for smaller geographic areas. www.epi.org 35
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EPI Family Budget Calculator: http://www.epi.org/resources/budget/ www.epi.org 38
CSG Webinar: Alternative Poverty Measures Timothy Smeeding Professor of Public Affairs La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin Madison Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty The Council of State Governments www.csg.org
Measuring State Poverty and Policy Impacts in Wisconsin Tim Smeeding Director and Professor of Public Affairs and Economics for "Who's Poor? Measuring Poverty in the States" The Council of State Governments October 1, 2013
Poverty Trends in Wisconsin
Policy Levers for Fighting Poverty
The Council of State Governments Capitol Ideas Webinar Series: Alternative Poverty Measures www.csg.org