ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Canada 1 219
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter 219 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 1,93 employers in Canada. Canadian Employment Outlook All survey participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 219 as compared to the current quarter? Contents Canadian Employment Outlook 1 Organization-Size Comparisons Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Global Employment Outlook 13 International Comparisons Americas International Comparisons Asia Pacific International Comparisons EMEA About the Survey 3 About ManpowerGroup 31
Canadian Employment Outlook 1st Quarter 219 4th Quarter 218 3rd Quarter 218 2nd Quarter 218 1st Quarter 218 Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % 14 6 79 1 8 12 16 6 77 1 1 14 2 3 76 1 17 13 2 3 74 3 17 14 16 8 74 2 8 12 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero Canadian employers report moderate hiring intentions for the first quarter of 219. With 14% of employers expecting an increase in payrolls, 6% anticipating a decrease and 79% forecasting no change, the is +8%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +12%. Hiring prospects decline by 2 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter, but are unchanged when compared with this time one year ago. Throughout this report, we use the term. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1
Organization-Size Comparisons Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 1 employees; Small businesses have 1-49 employees; Medium businesses have 5-249 employees; and Large businesses have 25 or more employees. When compared with the final quarter of 218, Large employers report a noteworthy increase of 8 percentage points. Meanwhile, hiring prospects remain relatively stable for Small- and Micro-size employers, and are unchanged in the Medium size category. Employers forecast job gains in all four organization size categories during the upcoming quarter. Large employers report robust hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +35%. Elsewhere, Outlooks stand at +18% and +1% for Medium- and Small-size employers, respectively, while the Outlook for Micro firms is +3%. Large employers also report stronger hiring intentions when compared with this time one year ago, with an increase of 7 percentage points. Hiring plans are 2 percentage points stronger for Medium employers and remain relatively stable for Small employers. However, Micro firms report a decline of 2 percentage points. Organization-Size Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Micro-Size less than 1 Small-Size 1-49 Medium-Size 5-249 Large-Size 25 or more 6 5 88 1 1 3 11 6 82 1 5 1 2 6 73 1 14 18 34 5 6 1 29 35 5 Micro-Size less than 1 Small-Size 1-49 Medium-Size 5-249 Large-Size 25 or more 4 3 2 1-1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Regional Comparisons +2 (+1)% Atlantic Canada Employers forecast a fair hiring climate in the upcoming quarter, reporting a of +1%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in comparison with Quarter 4 218 and improve by 4 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago. Employers in eight of the 1 industry sectors expect to add to payrolls during the coming quarter. Construction sector employers report the strongest hiring intentions in more than eight years with a bright Net Employment Outlook of +31%. Elsewhere, healthy job gains are forecast for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Outlooks of +23% and +22%, respectively. Public Administration sector employers report an upbeat Outlook of +17%, while the Manufacturing Durables sector Outlook stands at +15%. However, Manufacturing Non-Durables sector employers report gloomy hiring prospects with an Outlook of -22%. When compared with the previous quarter, Outlooks strengthen in seven of the 1 industry sectors, most notably by 24 percentage points in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, and by 23 percentage points in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Noteworthy increases of 16 and 14 percentage points are reported for the Education sector and the Manufacturing Durables sector, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring plans weaken in three sectors, including the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector with a decrease of 29 percentage points, and the Mining sector where the Outlook declines by 15 percentage points. Hiring intentions improve in eight of the 1 industry sectors when compared with this time one year ago. A sharp increase of 26 percentage points is reported for the Construction sector, while Outlooks are 18 and 1 percentage points stronger in the Education sector and the Manufacturing Durables sector, respectively. However, Outlooks are considerably weaker in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector, declining by 14 percentage points and in the Mining sector, decreasing by 11 percentage points. Employers in six of the seven Atlantic Canada areas expect to increase payrolls during the coming quarter. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in Halifax and Fredericton, where Outlooks stand at +21% and +2%, respectively. Steady job gains are also forecast for Charlottetown, with an Outlook of +17% and Moncton where the Outlook is +16%. However, St. John s employers expect to trim payrolls, reporting an Outlook of -7%. In comparison with the previous quarter, Outlooks strengthen in four areas, most notably by 9 percentage points in Charlottetown and by 8 percentage points in Fredericton. Meanwhile, employers in Cape Breton Area and Moncton report weaker hiring prospects, declining by 7 and 2 percentage points, respectively. Hiring intentions strengthen in four areas when compared with this time one year ago. Charlottetown employers report a sharp improvement of 24 percentage points, and the Fredericton Outlook is 7 percentage points stronger. Elsewhere, Outlooks weaken in three areas, most notably by 6 and 4 percentage points in Cape Breton Area and Moncton, respectively. Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Construction Education Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Durables Manufacturing Non-Durables Mining Public Administration Services Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 12 1 76 2 2 1 24 12 64 12 31 9 91 9 12 31 69 31 22 8 92-8 15 33 67-33 -22 1 9-1 1 9 1 17 14 14 72 12 2 8 2 23 8 13 75 4-5 6 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 3
+9 (+12)% Ontario Job seekers can expect the steady hiring pace to continue in the next three months, according to employers who report a of +12%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with both the previous quarter and the first quarter of 218. Payrolls are forecast to grow in all 1 industry sectors during the upcoming quarter. The strongest Net Employment Outlook of +2% is reported in the Construction sector, and Public Administration sector employers also report upbeat hiring plans with an Outlook of +19%. Steady workforce gains are anticipated in two sectors with Outlooks of +17% the Manufacturing Durables sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and respectable payroll growth is forecast for the Education sector and the Services sector, where Outlooks stand at +12%. The most cautious hiring prospects are reported in the Mining sector with an Outlook of +4%, and in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector where the Outlook stands at +3%. Hiring plans weaken in six of the 1 industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. Noteworthy declines of 6 percentage points are reported in both the Education sector and the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector. Elsewhere, Public Administration sector employers report a decrease of 5 percentage points and the Outlook for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector declines by 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, hiring prospects improve in three sectors, most notably by 5 percentage points for the Construction sector. When compared with this time one year ago, employers report weaker hiring intentions in five of the 1 industry sectors. A considerable decrease of 19 percentage points is reported for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, while the Outlook for the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector is 6 percentage points weaker. However, Outlooks improve in four sectors, most notably by 16 percentage points for the Construction sector and by 6 percentage points for the Education sector. Employers in all 24 Ontario areas expect to increase staffing levels during the upcoming quarter. The strongest hiring plans are reported in Kitchener/Cambridge Area where the Outlook is +28%. Hamilton employers also forecast an active hiring pace, reporting an Outlook of +25%, while the Brampton Outlook stands at +19%. Steady job gains are also forecast for Brantford and Ottawa, with Outlooks of +18%, and in both Burlington/Oakville and Peterborough, with Outlooks of +15%. Meanwhile, the weakest Outlooks of +2% are reported in Barrie, Niagara Falls and St. Catharines. In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, Outlooks improve in 1 areas, most notably by 12 percentage points in Peterborough. Welland/Port Colborne employers report an increase of 8 percentage points while Outlooks are 7 percentage points stronger in both Barrie and Mississauga. However, hiring prospects weaken in 12 areas. Considerable declines of 2 and 16 percentage points are reported in Niagara Falls and St. Catharines, respectively, and the Thunder Bay Outlook decreases by 6 percentage points. Hiring intentions also improve in 1 areas when compared with this time one year ago. Peterborough employers report the most notable increase of 11 percentage points, while Outlooks are 1 percentage points stronger in both Belleville and Hamilton. Elsewhere, Outlooks weaken in 12 areas, including Welland/Port Colborne and Kingston with declines of 19 and 17 percentage points, respectively. Windsor employers report a decrease of 11 percentage points, and the Brampton Outlook is 7 percentage points weaker. Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Construction Education Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Durables Manufacturing Non-Durables Mining Public Administration Services Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 14 5 8 1 9 12 17 9 72 2 8 2 12 88 12 12 11 2 87 9 6 23 4 73 19 17 9 9 79 3 3 9 19 68 4-1 4 14 5 8 1 9 19 13 2 84 1 11 12 23 4 73 19 17 14 5 81 9 1 4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
+9 (+17)% Quebec Reporting a of +17%, employers anticipate positive payroll gains in the January-March time frame. While the Outlook is 2 percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter, employers report relatively stable hiring plans when compared with this time one year ago. Employers in all 1 industry sectors forecast an increase in staffing levels during the coming quarter. A prosperous labour market is expected in the Manufacturing Durables sector, where employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +38%. Public Administration sector employers expect healthy job gains, reporting an Outlook of +26%, and Outlooks stand at +19% and +17% in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector and the Services sector, respectively. Steady payroll gains are also forecast for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector with an Outlook of +15%, and in both the Mining sector and the Construction sector, with Outlooks of +13%. The weakest sector Outlook of +4% is reported by employers in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. When compared with Quarter 4 218, hiring prospects weaken in six of the 1 industry sectors. Mining sector employers report a considerable decrease of 15 percentage points, and noteworthy declines of 12 and 9 percentage points are reported for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Public Administration sector, respectively. Elsewhere, employers report stronger hiring prospects in four sectors. Manufacturing Durables sector employers report a considerable increase of 13 percentage points, while the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger. Hiring intentions strengthen in five of the 1 industry sectors when compared with this time one year ago. Manufacturing Durables sector employers report the most notable increase of 19 percentage points, and Outlooks are 6 percentage points stronger for both the Construction sector and the Services sector. However, hiring plans also weaken in five sectors, including the Transportation & Public Utilities sector with a sharp decrease of 22 percentage points. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector employers report a decline of 17 percentage points and the Outlook for the Public Administration sector decreases by 12 percentage points. Payroll gains are expected in all five Quebec areas during the coming quarter. Monteregie (formerly Granby) employers report the strongest hiring intentions with an Outlook of +29%, and healthy job gains are also forecast for Laval where the Outlook is +22%. Steady hiring activity is expected in Quebec City and Cantons de L Est (formerly Sherbrooke) with Outlooks of +19% and +18%, respectively, while the Montreal Outlook of +8% reflects moderate hiring plans. Hiring prospects weaken in four areas when compared with the previous quarter. Montreal employers report the most notable decline of 8 percentage points, and Outlooks decrease by 6 and 5 percentage points in Quebec City and Laval, respectively. However, Cantons de L Est (formerly Sherbrooke) employers report a considerable improvement of 11 percentage points. Employers in both Cantons de L Est (formerly Sherbrooke) and Laval report stronger hiring intentions when compared with this time one year ago, with Outlooks increasing by 17 and 1 percentage points, respectively. However, Outlooks decline by 9 percentage points in Montreal and by 8 percentage points in Quebec City. Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Construction Education Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Durables Manufacturing Non-Durables Mining Public Administration Services Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 17 8 75 9 17 8 8 83 1 13 18 6 76 12 1 27 13 6 14 21 38 6 56 32 38 2 8 2 19 12 15 73-3 13 2 7 1 2 26 15 7 78 8 17 1 3 6-2 4 14 5 81 9 15 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 5
+9 (+11)% Western Canada Respectable job gains are likely in the coming quarter, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. Hiring plans remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, and are unchanged when compared with this time one year ago. Employers forecast workforce gains for all 1 industry sectors during the next three months. Hiring prospects are strongest in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, with a healthy of +26%. Construction sector employers report an upbeat Outlook of +19%, and Outlooks stand at +14% and +12% for the Manufacturing Durables sector and the Mining sector, respectively. Steady job gains are also forecast in two sectors with Outlooks of +11% the Public Administration sector and the Services sector. Meanwhile, Education sector employers report the weakest Outlook of +5%. Hiring plans strengthen in five of the 1 industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. The most notable increases of 5 and 4 percentage points are reported in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Public Administration sector, respectively. However, Outlooks decline in four sectors, including a considerable decrease of 18 percentage points for the Education sector. Services sector employers report a decrease of 5 percentage points, while the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker. When compared with this time one year ago, hiring intentions weaken in six of the 1 industry sectors. Notable decreases of 12 percentage points are reported in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector, while Outlooks are 5 percentage points weaker in the Education sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Elsewhere, Outlooks strengthen in three sectors, including an increase of 12 percentage points for the Construction sector and an improvement of 4 percentage points in the Mining sector. Payrolls are forecast to grow in 1 of the 11 Western Canada areas in the coming quarter. Victoria & Capital Regional District employers report the strongest hiring prospects with an Outlook of +23%, and similarly healthy hiring plans are reported in Richmond-Delta, where the Outlook is +22%. Steady workforce gains are expected in Burnaby- Coquitlam and Red Deer, with Outlooks of +18% and +16%, respectively, and Outlooks stand at +12% in Edmonton and +11% in Vancouver. Meanwhile, Saskatoon employers anticipate flat hiring activity with an Outlook of %. Hiring intentions weaken in seven areas when compared with the previous quarter, most notably by 2 percentage points in Surrey and by 1 percentage points in both Saskatoon and Regina. Elsewhere, hiring prospects improve in three areas, including Calgary and Burnaby-Coquitlam, increasing by 6 and 3 percentage points, respectively. When compared with this time one year ago, Outlooks also decline in seven areas. Noteworthy decreases of 8 and 6 percentage points are reported for Richmond-Delta and Vancouver, respectively. However, hiring plans strengthen in four areas, including Victoria & Capital Regional District with an increase of 14 percentage points. Elsewhere, employers in both Regina and Red Deer report increases of 7 percentage points. Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Construction Education Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Durables Manufacturing Non-Durables Mining Public Administration Services Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 13 4 81 2 9 11 9 6 83 2 3 19 5 95 5 5 11 3 86 8 9 15 5 78 2 1 14 9 3 88 6 6 18 6 76 12 12 14 3 83 11 11 13 4 79 4 9 11 26 3 71 23 26 13 5 81 1 8 1 6 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Sector Comparisons Workforce gains are forecast for all 1 industry sectors in the first quarter of 219. The strongest labour markets are anticipated by employers in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Manufacturing Durables sector, with s of +21% and +2%, respectively. Elsewhere, Construction sector employers report an upbeat Outlook of +18%, and Outlooks of +17% and +15% are reported in the Public Administration sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest hiring intentions are reported in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector with an Outlook of +7%, and in the Mining sector where the Outlook is +8%. Hiring prospects improve in six of the 1 industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. Transportation & Public Utilities sector employers report the most notable increase of 6 percentage points, and Outlooks are 3 percentage points stronger in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. However, Outlooks weaken in four sectors, including the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector and the Mining sector with decreases of 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively. In a comparison with this time one year ago, hiring plans improve in three of the 1 industry sectors, including the Construction sector with an increase of 14 percentage points. Elsewhere, Outlooks are 3 percentage points stronger in two sectors the Education sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. Meanwhile, employers in three sectors report weaker hiring intentions. A considerable decrease of 11 percentage points is reported in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, while Outlooks decline by 6 and 5 percentage points in the Manufacturing Non-Durables sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, respectively. Construction Education Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Durables Manufacturing Non-Durables Mining Public Administration Services Transportation & Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade 1 3 5 7 7 8 8 1 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 17 17 18 2 21 5 1 15 2 25 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 7
+5 (+18)% Construction Job seekers can expect a steady hiring pace in the first quarter of 219, according to employers who report a of +18%. The Outlook is 2 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter, and improves by a considerable margin of 14 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero +1 (+12)% Education The strongest labour market in more than four years is anticipated in the next three months. Employers report a of +12%, remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and improving by 3 percentage points when compared with the first quarter of 218. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero 8 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
+13 (+15)% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate With a of +15%, employers anticipate a favourable hiring climate in the coming quarter. Hiring prospects are 3 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter, but decline by 11 percentage points in comparison with this time one year ago. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero +16 (+2)% Manufacturing Durable Goods Employers forecast an upbeat hiring pace in the January-March period, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Hiring plans improve by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are unchanged year-over-year. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 9
+3 (+7)% Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods Job seekers can expect some hiring opportunities in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a of +7%. However, hiring intentions decline by 5 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 4 218, and are 6 percentage points weaker when compared with this time one year ago. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero +1 (+8)% Mining Modest payroll gains are expected in the first quarter of 219, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring prospects decline by 4 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but are unchanged in comparison with the first quarter of 218. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero 1 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
+11 (+17)% Public Administration Reporting a of +17%, employers forecast a hopeful hiring climate for the next three months. The Outlook is 2 percentage points weaker quarter-over-quarter, but employers report no change year-over-year. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero +8 (+12)% Services Employers anticipate respectable job gains during the upcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. Hiring plans decline by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but are unchanged when compared with this time one year ago. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 11
+17 (+21)% Transportation & Public Utilities An active labour market is likely in the January-March period, according to employers who report a of +21%. Hiring prospects strengthen by 6 percentage points when compared with the final quarter of 218, but are 5 percentage points weaker in comparison with Quarter 1 218. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero +7 (+11)% Wholesale & Retail Trade Job seekers can expect a steady hiring pace in Quarter 1 219, with employers reporting a of +11%. Hiring intentions improve by 3 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 No bar indicates of zero 12 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Global Employment Outlook ManpowerGroup interviewed over 6, employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labour market activity* in January-March 219. All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 219 as compared to the current quarter? The ManpowerGroup research for the first quarter of 219 reveals that payroll gains are expected in 43 of 44 countries and territories in the period up to the end of March. Hiring intentions for the coming quarter are stronger in 16 of 44 countries and territories when compared with the prior quarter, weaken in 23 and are unchanged in five. In a comparison with this time one year ago, Outlooks improve in 21 countries and territories, decline in 2, and are unchanged in two**. First-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in Japan, Taiwan, the U.S., Slovenia, Greece and Hong Kong, while employers report the weakest hiring intentions in Argentina, Switzerland, Italy, Panama and Spain. Job gains are expected for all 26 Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region countries in the survey during the first quarter of 219. In comparison to last quarter, employers in eight countries report stronger hiring prospects, but hiring plans weaken in 15. When compared with the same period last year, forecasts strengthen in 12 countries but decline in 13. The strongest EMEA labour markets in the coming quarter are anticipated in Slovenia and Greece, while Swiss employers report the weakest hiring plans. Employers in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories expect to add to payrolls during the next three months. When compared with the previous quarter, forecasts strengthen in four countries and territories but weaken in two. In comparison with last year at this time, employers in five countries and territories report stronger hiring prospects, while weaker Outlooks are reported in two. Japanese and Taiwanese employers report the strongest hiring intentions across the region, and the weakest Outlooks are reported in China and Singapore. Payrolls are forecast to increase across nine of the 1 Americas countries included in the survey during the January-March period, although employers in one Argentina expect their workforce to decrease in size. Hiring prospects strengthen in four Americas countries when compared with the final quarter of 218, but weaken in six. In a comparison with the same period last year, Outlooks improve in four countries but decline in five. The most optimistic first quarter hiring plans are reported in the U.S. and Mexico, while Argentinian and Panamanian employers report the weakest country forecasts in the region. Full survey results for each of the 44 countries and territories included in this quarter s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at www.manpowergroup.com/meos The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 12 March 219 and will detail expected labour market activity for the second quarter of 219. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Croatia or Portugal. ** Only 43 countries and territories eligible for year-over-year comparison; Croatia has no year-over-year data at this point. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 13
Quarter 1 219 Qtr on Qtr Change Q4 218 to Q1 219 Yr on Yr Change Q1 218 to Q1 219 Quarter 1 219 Americas Argentina Brazil Canada Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Panama Peru United States Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan EMEA Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Israel Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK % -3 (-4) 1-4 (-6) 1-12 (-12) 1 7 (8) 1 2 (1) 1 2 (2) 1 8 (12) 1 12 (14) 1 7 (7) 1 14 (14) 1 1 (1) 1 18 (18) 1 12 (12) 1 26 (27) 1 17 (16) 1 9 (1) 1 18 (21) 1 2 (5) 1 5 (6) 1 3 (4) 1 5 (8) 1 5 (8) 1 2 (3) 1 3 (4) 1 4 (5) 1 2 (3) 1 5 (5) 1 (2) 1-2 (-2) 1 7 (1) 1-6 (-2) 1 2 (2) 1 6 (4) 1 (-3) 1-14 (-14) 1-1 (1) 1 1 (1) 1-1 () 1 3 (3) 1 1 (1) 1-2 (-1) 1 4 (1) 1 1 (1) 1-4 (-3) 1-2 () 1-2 () 1-1 () 1-4 (4) 1-12 (-8) 1-1 (-1) 1 6 (6) 1 2 (1) 1 2 (2) 1 Japan Taiwan United States Slovenia Greece Hong Kong New Zealand Hungary Romania Australia Croatia Mexico Canada India Poland China Colombia Guatemala Singapore Slovakia Portugal Brazil Bulgaria Germany Ireland Finland Israel Peru Belgium United Kingdom Austria Norway Sweden Costa Rica Czech Republic France Netherlands South Africa Turkey Italy Panama Spain Switzerland Argentina -4% -15-1 -5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45-15 -1-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa. Indicates unadjusted data. * 1. Number in parentheses is the when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required. () 1 1 (1) 1-3 (-2) 1-1 (-1) 1 2 (2) 1 4 (3) 1 (-1) 1-2 (-3) 1-4 (-5) 1 18 (2) 1 1 (1) 1 2 (1) 1 1 (1) 1 2 (2) 1 2 (2) 1-9 (-1) 1 3 (3) 1 1 (1) 1 () 1-4 (-4) 1 5 (5) 1 3 (3) 1 4 (8) 1-3 (-2) 1-5 (-5) 1 14 5 2 (4) 1-4 (-2) 1-1 (-1) 1-1 (7) 1-6 (-1) 1-5 (-2) 1 1 (2) 1 2 (2) 1-6 (-1) 1 2 (2) 1 12 (18) 1 (1) 1 5 (5) 1 12 (15) 1-3 (-2) 1 1 (1) 1-4 (-1) 1 1 (1) 1 3 (3) 1-2 (-1) 1-1 (-1) 1 1 () 1 8 (12) 1-4 (-1) 1 1 (1) 1 9 1-4 1 (15) 1-5 (-2) 1 (-1) 1 8 (1) 1-1 (-1) 1-1 (-1) 1 19 (19) 1 3 (1) 1 6 (6) 1 5 (4) 1-1 (-2) 1-2 (-2) 1-2 (-2) 1-2 (-3) 1 3 (4) 1 2 (3) 1 5 (7) 1-2 (-1) 1-4 (-6) 1-4 (-4) 1-1 (-1) 1 1 (1) 1-1 (-1) 1 +21% +2% +19% +18% +18% +16% +15% +15% +14% +14%* +14% +12% +12% +12% +1% +1% +1% +1% +1% +9%* +8% +8% +8% +8% +7% +7% +7% +6% +6% +5% +5% +5% +4% +4% +4% +4% +4% +4% +3% +3% +3% +2% +27% 14 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
International Comparisons Americas The survey for the first quarter of 219 is based on over 24, interviews with employers across North, Central and South America. Employers in nine of the 1 countries expect job gains in the coming quarter, with only employers in Argentina anticipating overall payroll declines. The most optimistic hiring sentiment is reported in the United States, where the Outlook is the strongest since 26, remaining relatively stable in comparison with three months ago and with last year at this time. Transportation & Utilities sector employers anticipate the most active labour market, with employers in the Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services sectors forecasting similarly strong workforce growth. Canadian employers continue to expect steady payroll gains despite a slight Outlook decline in comparison with the previous quarter. The healthiest first-quarter job gains are expected in the Transportation & Public Utilities and the Manufacturing Durables sectors. Mexican employers forecast slightly stronger payroll gains compared to last year at this time. The Outlook is buoyed by the strongest Transport & Communication sector forecast in more than five years with nearly a quarter of the employers surveyed expecting to add to payrolls in the first quarter. Across Central America job prospects are mixed. Costa Rican employers expect the weakest hiring pace in over nine years, with Outlooks declining considerably across all six industry sectors and all six regions when compared with the same period last year. Guatemalan employers expect moderate job gains overall, but hiring sentiment softens in most sectors when compared to last quarter. The Commerce sector forecast is the weakest in more than seven years, and hiring plans dip considerably in the Agriculture, Fishing, Mining & Extraction sector. Panama s labour market is expected to remain subdued in the next three months, and the Outlook matches the weakest since the survey began nine years ago. In South America, the economic crisis in Argentina is driving down hiring opportunities, with employers now expecting to trim payrolls during the first quarter of 219. The most severe cutbacks are expected in the Construction and Transportation & Utilities sectors, while hiring plans in the Mining, the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Agriculture & Fishing sectors are holding steady. Meanwhile, Brazilian employers continue to report a more favourable hiring climate, expecting to add to payrolls across seven of eight industry sectors and four of five regions. Outlooks are notably stronger in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and the Agriculture, Fishing & Mining sectors when compared with last year at this time. Colombian employers remain cautiously optimistic despite a slight quarter-over-quarter decline. The Mining sector Outlook is the strongest in five years, while Transportation & Utilities sector employers also report notably stronger hiring plans than this time one year ago. The moderate hiring pace is expected to continue in Peru, remaining relatively stable in comparison with the last quarter of 218. Mining sector employers report the most optimistic Outlook across Peru s nine industry sectors, moderately strengthening both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 15
Argentina 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Brazil +7 (+8)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 16 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Brazil joined the survey in Q4 29 No bar indicates of zero Canada +8 (+12)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Colombia +7 (+1)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 (-4)% 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero
Costa Rica +6 (+4)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Guatemala +1 (+1)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Mexico +12 (+14)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Panama +4 (+3)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Panama joined the survey in Q2 21 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 17
Peru +7 (+7)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 United States of America 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero +18 (+2)% 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 18 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
International Comparisons Asia Pacific ManpowerGroup interviewed almost 15, employers in the Asia Pacific region about hiring plans for the January-March 219 period. Payrolls are expected to grow to a varying extent in all eight countries and territories during the coming quarter. Japanese employers continue to report the strongest hiring intentions across the Asia Pacific region. Three in ten of those surveyed expect to add to payrolls in the first quarter of 219, marking the most optimistic forecast since hiring sentiment was first measured in Japan more than 15 years ago. Job prospects are in part driven by bullish hiring confidence in the Transportation & Utilities sector, and employers also report the most optimistic hiring intentions on record in the Mining & Construction and Services sectors. Taiwan s healthy hiring pace is expected to continue in the next three months. Taiwanese employers in the Transportation & Utilities and Mining & Construction sectors report the strongest hiring prospects, with Outlooks in both sectors trending stronger in comparison with the same period in 218. In Hong Kong, employers report upbeat hiring intentions for the next three months. Hiring prospects are the strongest in seven years, fuelled by growing employer confidence in the Services and Mining & Construction sectors. Chinese employers also report an improvement on the previous quarter more than one in ten employers expect to increase payrolls by the end of the coming quarter. Hiring sentiment is strongest in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and Transportation & Utilities sectors, and Mining & Construction sector employers report their strongest hiring plans in more than three years. The hiring climate in India during the first quarter of 219 is expected to be broadly in line with the final quarter of 218, with a majority of sectors and half of the regions either relatively stable or unchanged from the prior quarter. Zero percent of the Indian employers surveyed expect to reduce payrolls in the upcoming quarter. Modest payroll gains are forecast for Singapore in the next three months, but the Outlook is slightly weaker in comparison with the previous quarter. Manufacturing sector employers expect an above average hiring pace reporting their strongest Outlook in more than four years. Australian employers continue to expect steady payroll gains with an unchanged forecast for the first quarter of 219. Hiring confidence is trending weaker for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and Transportation & Utilities sectors when compared with the final quarter of 218, but the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector Outlook is strengthening. The most optimistic hiring climate in more than three years is forecast for the coming quarter in New Zealand. Employers in the Public Administration & Education sector report the healthiest hiring prospects in over five years, and Mining & Construction sector employers report a strong recovery in comparison with the previous quarter. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 19
Australia +14 (+14)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 China 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey +1 (+1)% 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Hong Kong +18 (+18)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 India 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero +12 (+12)% 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero
Japan +26 (+27)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero New Zealand +17 (+16)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Singapore +9 (+1)% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Taiwan +18 (+21)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 21
International Comparisons EMEA More than 21, employers took part in the survey for the first quarter of 219 across 26 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region. Employers in all 26 countries expect to increase payrolls during the next three months, with the most optimistic hiring intentions reported in Slovenia and Greece. The most cautious hiring plans in the region are reported by employers in Switzerland, Spain and Italy. Employers in Europe s four largest economies expect first-quarter job gains. For the fifth consecutive quarter, German employers report that group s strongest hiring plans, fuelled by stronger hiring sentiment in the Manufacturing sector. UK employers report slightly improved hiring plans when compared with the same period last year, with Construction sector employers reporting the most optimistic first-quarter forecast. French and Italian employers report more modest hiring prospects, although Outlooks strengthen in both countries when compared with the final quarter of 218. In France, hiring sentiment is slightly stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, aided by upbeat hiring plans for the Transport, Storage & Communication sector. Italian employers report the most confident hiring plans in eight years, driven by the strongest Manufacturing sector forecast since the survey started in 23. Elsewhere in Western Europe employers also report cautious optimism for the next three months. Hiring intentions recover in Switzerland, with employers now expecting limited job gains following the uncertain forecast reported for the final quarter of 218. Austrian employers report no change on the previous quarter, despite the strongest Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector results reported in more than four years. In Belgium, employers report unchanged hiring prospects when compared with the previous quarter, expecting modest payroll growth to continue. Meanwhile, Netherlands Outlook declines for the third consecutive quarter due, in part, to a recruitment slump in the Manufacturing sector. Hiring prospects are more positive in most of Eastern Europe. Employer confidence is moderately stronger in Slovenia when compared to this time one year ago, with healthy gains expected in both the Construction and Manufacturing sectors. Respectable job gains are also anticipated in Romania, despite a slight quarter-over-quarter decline in hiring sentiment. Romania s Manufacturing sector Outlook weakens in comparison with both the previous quarter and the first quarter of 218, but remains one of the strongest in EMEA. Polish employers continue to forecast positive workforce gains, fuelled by the strongest Transportation, Storage & Communications sector forecast in five years. In all three Nordic nations employers expect modest first-quarter payroll gains. Hiring plans are most optimistic in Finland, due in part to the strongest Outlook in four years for the Transport, Storage & Communications sector. Swedish employers report slightly weaker hiring sentiment in comparison with the prior quarter, in part reflecting the weakest Outlook in more than four years in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. The Norwegian Outlook is unchanged quarter-over-quarter, despite the Greater Oslo Outlook slipping to its weakest level in over three years. Contrasting fortunes are forecast in Eastern Mediterranean countries. Greek employers have recovered the confidence lost during the economic crisis, reporting the strongest hiring intentions in more than 1 years. Meanwhile, the Turkish currency crisis has triggered the weakest hiring climate since the country was first included in the survey eight years ago. Employers in seven of 11 Turkish industry sectors predict the weakest labour markets since the survey began. 22 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Austria +2 (+5)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Belgium +5 (+6)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Bulgaria +4 (+8)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 211 No bar indicates of zero Croatia +14% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Croatia joined the survey in Q2 218 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 23
Czech Republic +2 (+4)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Finland 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 France +3 (+4)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 24 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Germany +5 (+8)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero -1 (+7)% -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Finland joined the survey in Q4 212 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero
Greece +12 (+18)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Hungary +12 (+15)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Hungary joined the survey in Q3 29 No bar indicates of zero Ireland +5 (+8)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Israel +5 (+7)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Israel joined the survey in Q4 211 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 25
Italy +2 (+3)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Netherlands +3 (+4)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Norway +4 (+5)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 26 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Poland +8 (+12)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero
Portugal +9% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Portugal joined the survey in Q3 216 No bar indicates of zero Romania +1 (+15)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero Slovakia +8 (+1)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 211 No bar indicates of zero Slovenia +19 (+19)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 211 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 27
South Africa +5 (+4)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Spain +2 (+3)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Sweden +5 (+5)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Switzerland (+2)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 28 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero
Turkey 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -4 (+4)% -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Turkey joined the survey in Q1 211 No bar indicates of zero United Kingdom +6 (+6)% 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 No bar indicates of zero ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 29
About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 6, public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: For the Quarter 1 219 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 219 as compared to the current quarter? Methodology The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 2.2%. Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. s for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 28, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. 3 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey