October 3, 213 Mangalam Cement Ltd. Poised for growth CMP INR 99 Target INR 149.6 Initiating Coverage BUY Key Share Data Face Value (INR) 1. Equity Capital (INR Mn) 266.9 52 Week High/Low (INR) 192.8/87.6 6 months Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 21,845 BSE Code 52157 NSE Code Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (as on 3th June. 213) Others, 68.59% Source: BSE Key Financials (INR Million) MANGLMCEM Promoter 27.41% FII's,.9% DII's, 3.91% MGLC.BO MGC IN Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 6,37.7 7,6.4 7,523.3 1,366.6 Growth (%) 27.1 11.9 6.6 37.8 EBITDA 1,34.6 1,36.3 1,196.2 1,89. PAT 559.9 773.7 51.3 768.5 Growth (%) 46.4 38.2-34. 5.6 EPS (INR) 21. 29. 19.1 28.8 BVPS (INR) 161.9 184.4 196.5 218.3 Key Financials Ratios Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E P/E (x) 6.5 4.6 5.2 3.4 P/BVPS (x).8.7.5.5 Mcap/Sales (x).6.5.4.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.9 5.1 3.3 ROCE (%) 14.5% 15.8% 9.% 12.3% ROE (%) 13.5% 16.7% 1.% 13.9% EBITDA Mar (%) 16.4% 18.5% 15.9% 17.5% PAT Mar (%) 8.9% 11.% 6.8% 7.4% Debt - Equity (x).1.5.7.7 1 Yr price performance MCL vis-à-vis BSE Small Cap 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 MCL A Analyst: Nikhil Saboo BSE Small Cap Ph: +91 33 47 719, M: +91 933186643 Email: nikhil.saboo@skpmoneywise.com Company Background Mangalam Cement Limited (MCL), promoted in 1978, is a part of BK Birla Group. The company is engaged in the manufacturing of cement and has a capacity of 3.25 mtpa along with 48.65 MW of captive power plant. Its cement and power plants are located at Rajasthan and it sells its product under the brand name of Birla Uttam Cement. Investment Rationale Capacity expansion to aid volumes MCL has recently implemented.5 mtpa clinker unit and 1.25 mtpa grinding unit at Morak, Rajasthan at a total cost of ~INR 5 billion. Currently, the plants are run on trail basis while the commercial production will start from December 213 and the full benefit of the same will accrue from FY15 onwards. MCL is also exploring new projects the contours of which will be finalized by H2FY14 (surplus land available at Aligarh, UP). Cost efficiencies to contain significant margin erosion MCL has reduced its coal and high grade limestone consumption by replacing it by using pet coke. It is not selling any surplus power due to economical loss. The surplus power available will be utilized to meet the incremental power demand generating from recent expansion, thereby leading to overall savings. Going forward, we expect EBITDA margins to decline from 18.5 percent in FY13 to 17.5 percent in FY15E. Profits margins in FY15 are also expected to be lower compared to FY13 on account of higher depreciation charges and interest outgo. Attractive valuations & delivering value to share holders At CMP, MCL is trading at EV/tonne of ~USD 32 & ~USD 3 it s FY14E & FY15E respectively. The EV/tonne multiple is at steep discount (~75 percent) compared to replacement cost and ~55-6 percent compared to midcap peers. Thus, this leaves much scope for appreciation over the longer term once demand improves. For the last four years, MCL has maintained a dividend rate at 6 percent. For FY13, it has paid a dividend of 6 percent (INR 6/share), thereby delivering a current dividend yield of more than 6 percent. We believe MCL would continue to pay higher dividends, enhancing overall returns of the shareholders. Valuation MCL is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.1x and 3.3x FY14E and FY15E EBITDA respectively. We valued MCL s business at FY15E EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x and arrived at a price target of INR 149.6/share, implying an upside potential of ~51.1 percent in 18 months. We initiate coverage on MCL with BUY rating. SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 1
Industry Overview Cement demand is directly proportional to the construction sector s growth. It is primarily derived from expansions in the housing (6-65 percent) and the infrastructure (2-25 percent) segments. The year FY13 was tough for the cement industry. India s GDP has grown at its slowest pace since 22 and Cement industry which has grown at ~1.1x of GDP growth (average of last 1 years) has been struggling to improve its utilization level due to lower demand (subdued growth in the infrastructure and housing sector) and aggressive capacity addition. The effective installed capacity of Grey Cement increased to over 36 million tonnes (mt) by the end of FY13. However, lower demand and supply glut has resulted in lower capacity utilisation. Exhibit: Effective Capacity Utilization Figs. In MT 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13E Effective Capacity Production Capacity Utilization (%) Source: CMA, SKP Research Even though, India is the second largest cement producer in the world after China, its per capita cement consumption is very low In 212, global cement industry stood at ~4,1 MT, with China accounting for nearly half of the total output. India is the second largest producer with approximately 36 mt of cement (as on FY13). India s per capita consumption is at ~185 kg against the world average of ~48 kg or China s ~1,39 kg. India is way behind the global average per capita consumption and this process of catching up with International average would drive the growth of Indian cement industry. Exhibit: Per Capita Cement Consumption 1,6. 14 Figs. In Kg 1,2. 8. 4. ~185 ~48. India World Average China Source: Industry, SKP Research SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 2 of 1
Recent growth in the global cement consumption is primarily driven by the emerging markets, generating ~7 percent of the demand Nevertheless, India s growth story is attractive as compared to other advanced and emerging economies. The cement industry is looking for an up-cycle after muted growth for last three years, backed by impetus provided for the housing and infrastructure construction activities in the 12th five year plan period (212-17). The total investment in infrastructure sectors in the 12th five year plan is estimated to be USD one trillion. The recent government measures to fast track infrastructure projects & with general election a year away, construction activity is expected to pick up steam, leading to strong demand for cement. Exhibit: Infrastructure Spending Figs. in INR Billion 12 1 8 6 4 2 6. 6.5 7.2 7.6 8. 8.5 9. 9.5 1. 1.5 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Infrastructure Sepnding As a %age og GDP Source: Planning Commission, SKP Research Over the next one year, many of MCL s key cement consuming states are scheduled for elections The demand for cement picks up during the election time, as incumbent Government tries to meet some of the infrastructure related commitments. Over the next one year, besides general election at the Centre, many of MCL s key cement consuming states like Uttar Pradesh (UP), Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh (MP) etc. are scheduled for elections. These electoral developments will keep demand buoyant till FY15. Exhibit: Forthcoming Elections in MCL's Key Markets Year Expected Month State 213 Nov - Dec Delhi 213 Nov - Dec Rajasthan 213 Nov - Dec Madhya Pradesh 214 June Centre (Lok Shaba) 214 Sep - Oct Haryana Source: Election Commission of India, Company, SKP Research SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 3 of 1
Company Profile MCL is currently having a capacity of 3.25 mtpa along with 48.65 MW of captive power plant Mangalam Cement Limited (MCL), promoted in 1978, is a part of BK Birla Group. The company is engaged in manufacturer of cement and has a cement manufacturing capacity of 3.25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) along with 48.65 MW of captive power plant. Its cement and 35 MW coal based power plants are located at Morak along with 13.65 MW wind power plant at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan. It sells its product under the brand Birla Uttam Cement. MCL s presence is spread across Uttar Pradesh (UP), Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh (MP), primarily catering to the northern and western regions of India through its extensive network comprising 1,124 dealers and 2,796 retailers (FY13). Exhibit: Installed Capacity & Sales Volume Primarily caters to the markets of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, among others Figs. in MTPA 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 2. 1.6 2. 1.8 2. 1.9 3.25 * 2. * 3.25 * FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E 2.6 FY15E Installed Capacity Sales Volume Note: * Since 1.25 mtpa of capacity is starting commercial production from Dec-13, the benefit of the same will be seen from FY15E onwards SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 4 of 1
Investment Rationale Capacity expansion to aid volumes Incremental capacities will enhance abilities to cater to a wider geography The company has recently implemented.5 mtpa clinker unit and 1.25 mtpa grinding unit at Morak, Rajasthan at a total cost of ~INR 5 billion. Currently, the plants are run on trail basis while the commercial production will start from December 213 and the full benefit of the same will accrue from FY15 onwards. The funding for the same has been done through a mix of internal accruals and debt in the ratio of 1:3. So far, MCL has invested ~INR 4 billon and the balance amount of ~INR 1 billion will be spent by March 214. After the completion of the recent expansion plan, MCL s total cement capacity stands at 3.25 mtpa while its clinker capacity is enhanced from 1.71 mtpa to 2.21 mtpa. This capacity will facilitate proximity to key markets in the northern region. Translation of these capacities in to volume growth would help the company to increase its topline growth, even in a softening realization situation. The company is also exploring new projects the contours of which will be finalized by H2FY14 (surplus land available at Aligarh, UP). Cost efficiencies to contain significant margin erosion MCL has substituted the traditional use of coal for the clinkerisation process by using pet coke, enabling cost rationalization and efficient operations Over the last few years MCL has reduced its coal and high grade limestone consumption by replacing the same by using pet coke, thereby leading to cost savings. Pet coke being more homogenous than coal permits steadier kiln operations. To get an interrupted supply of pet coke MCL has entered into a long term contract with Reliance Industries Ltd & Essar Group. The company is also looking at options of importing pet coke for the recent expanded capacity in order to get the benefits of cheaper imported pet coke prices. Currently, MCL is not selling any surplus power due to economical loss. The surplus power available will be utilized to meet the incremental power demand generating from recent expansion, thereby leading to overall savings. We expect EBITDA/tonne to decrease in FY14 to INR 556.5/tonne while an improvement in FY15 to INR 646/tonne on account of better sales realization (demand expected to pick up post State Election in Rajasthan & Delhi). EBITDA margins are likely to decline by 15 bps over FY13-15E to 17.45 percent. SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 5 of 1
Exhibit: Per Tonne Analysis Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Sales Volume (mtpa) 1.8 1.9 2. 2.6 Sales (INR Million) 6,221.4 6,986.9 7,435. 1,243.8 We expect cement EBITDA/tonne of INR 556.5/tonne in FY14E and INR 646/tonne in FY15E Net Realization/tonne 3,413. 3,64.6 3,734.5 3,924.8 Total Expenditure (INR Million) 5,273.1 5,754.1 6,327.1 8,557.6 Material Consumed 1,44.9 762.6 1,237.6 1,57.5 Power & Fuel Cost 1,646.6 2,6.7 1,88.8 2,643.5 Employee Cost 322.9 381.2 42.5 57.2 Packing & Distribution 1,539.6 1,794.5 1,974.9 2,695.3 Admin & Other Exp. 719. 89.1 831.3 1,78.1 EBIDTA/tonne 52.3 642.4 556.5 646. Exhibit: EBITDA & EBITDA Margins 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 33% 29% 25% 21% 17% 13% 9% FY9 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13 Figs. in INR Million FY14E FY15E EBITDA EBIDTA Margins (%) Attractive valuation & delivering value to share holders MCL EV/tonne multiple is at steep discount (~75 percent) compared to replacement cost and ~55 percent - 6 percent compared to midcap peers At the CMP of INR 99, MCL is trading at 5.2x & 3.5x its FY14E & FY15E earnings while on a EV/tonne basis it is trading at ~USD 32 & ~USD 3 its FY14E & FY15E (on capacity of 3.25 mtpa) respectively. The EV/tonne multiple is at steep discount (~75 percent) compared to replacement cost and ~55 percent - 6 percent compared to midcap peers. Thus, this leaves much scope for appreciation over the longer term once demand improves. The company has delivered value to its shareholders in the form of higher dividends. The company has a track record of paying continuous dividends since last five years, despite the cyclical nature of the business. SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 6 of 1
For the last four years, the company has maintained a dividend rate at 6 percent. For FY13, the company has paid a dividend of 6 percent (INR 6/share), thereby delivering a current dividend yield of more than 6 percent. Going forward, we believe the company would continue to pay higher dividends, which would enhance overall returns of the shareholders. Going forward, we believe the company would continue to pay higher dividends Exhibit: Dividend Yield 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Dividend Per Share Dividend Yield (%) Key Concerns Increasing freight cost Increasing freight costs, augmenting on account of diesel price hike and rising rail freight charges, continue to be a major concern. Despite efforts being made to reduce distances between manufacturing centre and the markets, it still accounts for ~2 percent of the sales, causing cost pressure. Valuations We arrive at a 18 month price target of INR 149.6/share, reflecting an upside potential of 51.1 percent from current levels MCL is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.1x and 3.3x FY14E and FY15E EBITDA respectively. We valued MCL s business at FY15E EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x and arrived at a price target of INR 149.6/share, implying an upside potential of ~51.1 percent in 18 months. We initiate coverage on MCL with BUY rating. SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 7 of 1
One Year Forward P/E Band At CMP, MCL is trading at 5.18x and 3.44x its FY14E and FY15E EPS respectively Exhibit: One Year Forward P/E Band 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Mar-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x One Year Forward P/Bv Band Exhibit: One Year Forward P/BV Band 3 25 At CMP, MCL is trading at.5x and.44x its FY14E and FY15E BVPS respectively 2 15 1 5 Mar-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 1.2x 1x.8x.6x.4x One Year Forward EV/EBITDA Band MCL historically traded in a wide band of 2x to 6x on the one year forward EV/EBITDA basis, mainly due to high volatility in earnings due to cyclical nature of cement industry Exhibit: One Year Forward EV/EBITDA Band 14 12 Figs. In INR Billion 1 8 6 4 2 Mar-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 8 of 1
Exhibit: Income Statement Exhibit: Balance Sheet Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 6,37.7 7,6.4 7,523.3 1,366.6 Share Capital 266.9 266.9 266.9 266.9 Growth (%) 27.1 11.9 6.6 37.8 Reserve & Surplus 4,56. 4,656.3 4,979.2 5,56.3 Expenditure 5,273.1 5,754.1 6,327.1 8,557.6 Shareholders Funds 4,322.9 4,923.2 5,246.1 5,827.2 Material Consumed 1,44.9 762.6 1,237.6 1,57.5 Total Debt 24.2 2,43.6 3,93.6 4,33.6 Power & Fuel Cost 1,646.6 2,6.7 1,88.8 2,643.5 Deferred Tax (Net) 618.1 583.5 583.5 583.5 Employee Cost 322.9 381.2 42.5 57.2 Other Liabilities 22.4 254.1 254.1 254.1 Packing & Distribution 1,539.6 1,794.5 1,974.9 2,695.3 Total Liabilities 5,23.6 8,191.4 1,14.3 1,995.4 Admin & Other Exp. 719. 89.1 831.3 1,78.1 EBITDA 1,34.6 1,36.3 1,196.2 1,89. Net Block inc Capital WIP 3,714.2 5,632.5 8,56.5 8,244.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.4 18.5 15.9 17.5 Investments 11. 355.7 355.7 355.7 Depreciation 32.4 25.8 375. 512.2 Oth. Non Current Asset.9 213.4 213.4 213.4 EBIT 714.1 1,55.5 821.2 1,296.7 Current Assets 2,64. 3,485.3 2,774.6 4,393.5 Other Income 66.3 71. 75. 85. Inventories 582.3 1,366. 97.3 1,263. Interest Expense 31.1 48.4 26.6 343.3 Sundry Debtors 286.7 31.5 399.3 566.4 Profit Before Tax (PBT) 749.4 1,78.1 689.6 1,38.5 Cash & Bank Balance 436.5 923.3 # 444.8 # 186.8 # Income Tax 189.5 34.4 179.3 27. Other Current Asset 31. 68.5 82.8 129.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 25.3 28.2 26. 26. Loans & Advances 1,267.6 825.9 94.4 1,347.7 Profit After Tax (PAT) 559.9 773.7 51.3 768.5 Current Liabilities & Prov 1,126.6 1,495.5 1,835.9 2,211.4 PAT Margin (%) 8.9 11. 6.8 7.4 Current Liabilities 877.2 1,236.3 1,519.9 1,848.6 Growth (%) 46.4 38.2-34. 5.6 Provisions 249.4 259.1 316. 362.8 Diluted EPS 21. 29. 19.1 28.8 Total Assets 5,23.6 8,191.4 1,14.3 1,995.4 Exhibit: Cash Flow Statement Figures in INR Million Figures in INR Million Exhibit: Ratio Analysis Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E PBT 749.4 1,78.1 689.6 1,38.5 Earning Ratios (%) Depreciation 32.4 25.8 375. 512.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.4% 18.5% 15.9% 17.5% Interest Provided 31.1 48.4 26.6 343.3 PAT Margins (%) 8.9% 11.% 6.8% 7.4% Chg. in Working Capital (27.6) (2.8) 572.7 (61.4) ROCE (%) 14.5% 15.8% 9.% 12.3% Direct Taxes Paid (146.6) (242.5) (179.3) (27.) ROE (%) 13.5% 16.7% 1.% 13.9% Other Charges (59.1) (68.8) - - Per Share Data (INR) Operating Cash Flows 867.6 1,63.1 1,664.6 1,22.6 Diluted EPS 21. 29. 19.1 28.8 Capital Expenditure (449.7) (2,157.1) (3,249.1) (25.) Cash EPS (CEPS) 33. 38.4 33.2 48. Investments - (344.7) - - BVPS 161.9 184.4 196.5 218.3 Others 48.3 86.7 - - Valuation Ratios (x) Investing Cash Flows (41.4) (2,415.1) (3,249.1) (25.) P/E 6.54 4.58 5.18 3.44 Equity Capital Raised - - - - Price/BVPS.85.72.5.45 Inc / (Dec) in Debt - 2,1.8 1,5. 4. EV/Sales.55.72.81.57 Dividend Paid (inc tax) (184.8) (184.9) (187.4) (187.4) EV/EBITDA 3.35 3.86 5.12 3.25 Interest Paid (31.1) (44.6) (26.6) (343.3) Dividend Yield (%) 4.4% 4.5% 6.1% 6.1% Financing Cash Flows (215.9) 1,871.2 1,16. (13.6) Balance Sheet Ratios Chg. in Cash & Cash Eqv 25.3 519.3 (478.4) 641.9 Debt - Equity.1.5.7.7 Opening Cash Balance 119. 369.3 888.6 444.8 Current Ratio 2.3 2.3 1.5 2. Closing Cash Balance 369.3 888.6 444.8 1,86.8 Fixed Asset Turn. Ratios 1.4 1.8 1.2.9 # Note: Including other bank balance of INR 27.511 million & INR 7.161 million on account of margin money & unpaid dividend accounts. Source: Company Data, SKP Research Figures in INR Million SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 9 of 1
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