Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive September 2012 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
Second Lowest Unemployment Rate 4.0% Unemployment Rates by County (August 2011 July 2012 Average) State Personal Income Growth (Percent change 2011:Q1 to 2012:Q1) Rank State Growth 1 North Dakota 9.64 2 Montana 4.79 3 Washington 4.36 4 Utah 4.35 5 Alaska 4.34 6 Oklahoma 4.31 7 Nebraska 4.30 8 Texas 4.29 9 Indiana 4.22 10 Michigan 4.09 United States 3.29 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Second Fastest Income Growth from 2011:Q4 to 2012:Q2 at 3.61%
U.S. and Nebraska Farm Incomes Nebraska Farmland Value Gains Billions (Constant 2005 dollars) 140 U.S. (Left Scale) 120 Nebraska (Right Scale) 100 80 60 7 6 5 4 3 Percent change from year ago 50 Nonirrigated Cropland 40 Irrigated Cropland 30 20 10 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 2-10 -10 20 1-20 -20 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0-30 1977 1987 1997 2007-30 Calculations based on USDA and BEA data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Fueled by durable goods, primarily machinery. Nebraska Manufacturing Growth Annual job growth 2011: 1.4 percent 2012 YTD: 0.8 percent Source: BEA and BLS Annual wage growth 2011: 3.9 percent 2012 YTD: 0.2 percent Nebraska s Manufacturers Tap Global Markets. Nebraska Manufactured Exports 1.6 Billion Dollars Non-durables 1.4 Durables 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 Source: WISERTrade
Nebraska Residential Real Estate During 2012:Q1, mild winter weather sparked a construction rebound. 80 60 Percent change from year ago Single-family building permits (Left Scale) Home Price Index (Right Scale) 8 6 40 4 2012 Construction Growth Annual earnings growth Q2: 6.4 percent 20 0-20 2 0-2 Annual job growth Q2: 7.7 percent Q3: 10.8 percent -40-60 -4-6 Source: BEA and BLS Note: Industry employment data from BLS based on mining and construction, where construction jobs account for most of the sectors jobs. Source: Census Bureau and FHFA
Solid job and income gains in Retail trade Leisure and hospitality services Health services Education services Personal services Professional and business services Wholesale trade After a strong 2011, job contractions in Information and financial services Transportation and warehousing Nebraska Private Service-Producing Growth Annual percent change 7.0 Compensation 6.0 Jobs 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Government Job Growth, 2012 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Percent change from year ago U.S. NE Government: 20% of Nebraska s total compensation 17% of Nebraska s nonfarm jobs. 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 Total Federal State Local Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Year-to-Date data through August
Since World War II, Nebraska s economy 1) Holds up better during recessions 2) Expands quicker in the recovery 3) Lags as the expansion matures Since the 1970s Lincoln s economy held up better during recessions than other U.S. metro areas. U.S. and Nebraska Real Per Capita Income Growth (1949 to 2012) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 Average annual percent change Recessions First 6 Months Expansions First Year U.S. Nebraska First 2 Years Calculations based on quarterly BEA data
Commodity prices are not as sticky and monetary policy has quicker impacts. (Source: Saghaian et. al 2002) Lower interest rates are correlated with higher farm incomes. 140 Real Net Farm Income and Interest Rates Billions (2005 constant dollars) Real interest rate 120 6 100 4 8 Lower interest rates place downward pressure on the dollar. A weaker dollar stimulates exports. Strong exports boost farm incomes. (Source: Chambers and Just, 1982) Rising farmland values create a major wealth effect in Nebraska. 80 60 40 20 Real Net Farm Income (Left Scale) Real 1-year Treasury Yield (Right Scale) 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2 0-2 -4-6 Source: USDA and Federal Reserve
How Sustainable is the Farm Boom?
Will world populations and income rise as expected? Will global farm demand create its own supply? What is the future path of interest rates and cap rates? Are the necessary resources available? Can Agriculture Feed and Fuel the World? How high will production costs rise?
Definition of a Bubble If the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow when fundamental factors do not seem to justify such a price then a bubble exists. (Stiglitz) Source: Gloy (2012)
A 1980s scenario: a low probability event that has a really bad outcome A 1980s income shock would require Crop revenue to fall by 21.4% Value of farm production to fall 15.7% Prices would need to drop to Corn - $3.49 per bushel Wheat $3.96 per bushel Soybeans - $9.00 per bushel Source: Featherstone (2012)
KS Farm Management Farms: Average Debt-to-Asset Ratio 1979 24.6% 2010 26.8% Debt-to-Asset Ratio >40% 1979 19.4% 2010 25.6% Debt-to-Asset Ratio >70% 1979 1.3% 2010 5.9% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent of farmers Kansas Farmer Debt Levels 0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 >70 Debt to Asset Ratio Range (%) 1979 2010 Source: Featherstone (2012)
Can rural Nebraska build new sources of growth?
600 550 500 450 400 350 How do rural communities get their kids to come home? Population in Rural Counties of Tenth Federal Reserve District Thousands Leave Late boomers born from 1960 to 1964 Gen X born from 1965 to 1969 Gen X born from 1970 to 1974 Learn Return How does Lincoln get college students to stay after graduation? 100 80 60 40 20 Components of Population Change 2000 to 2009 Percent of population change 36.3 Net migration Natural Increase 57.6 300 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 Source: Henderson (2009) Age 0 Lancaster County, NE Source: Census Bureau Dane County, WI
The educational advantage over global competition has disappeared. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Educational Attainment by Age Group Secondary Education Percent of population in 2007 U.S. S. Korea 55-64 year-olds 25-34 year-olds Source: OECD, Brookings Institution 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 Nebraska High School Educational Attainment Percent of population 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Census Bureau CAUTION Nebraska has stronger educational attainment of AA degrees or higher. 25 to 34 years of age 45 to 64 years of age 35 to 44 years of age Why are Nebraska s children struggling to graduate? 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 CAUTION
Communities, states, and nations with more entrepreneurial activity have stronger economic growth. The benefits of entrepreneurship grow over time. Entrepreneurship is creative destruction the reallocation of resources to their highest and best use. 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Impacts of Proprietor Growth on Employment Growth Marginal impacts on employment growth 1991 to 2001 The Benefits of Entrepreneurship Grow Over Time 1985-1990 1980-1990 1970-1990 Calculations based on Henderson and Weiler (2010), Entrepreneurs and Job Growth: Probing the Boundaries of Time and Space, Economic Development Quarterly
CAUTION Economic development strategies are shifting in the 21 st century. CAUTION Rural Development Strategy Typologies Traditional Industrial recruitment Regional Center Bedroom Community Amenity-based Nontraditional Small Business Entrepreneurship Cluster-based Innovation and Knowledge Creative Class Source: Pender, Marre, and Reeder. (2012) Rural Wealth Creation: Concepts, Strategies, and Measures. Economic Research Service, USDA. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err131/err131.pdf Fundamental Questions Who will be the champions for change? Who will facilitate innovation in key institutions? What constituencies will support innovative leaders and institutions?
Agriculture, manufacturing, and construction are leading stronger economic gains in Nebraska. Historically, as economic recoveries strengthen, Nebraska s economy losses some steam. How sustainable is the farm boom? If farm fortunes turn, what are the engines of growth? How will Nebraska attract and retain the people needed to start new businesses, fill new jobs, and create a new vision for the Nebraska economy?