Book Launch: Education Reform in Mozambique: Lessons and Challenges C H A I R : R I T V A R E I N I K K A P R E S E N T E R S : L O U I S E F O X VY T. N G U Y E N D I S C U S S A N T S : L U I S B E N V E N I S T E B I R G E R F R E D R I K S E N
Outline What were the questions and who wanted to know? How did we find the answers? What did we learn? Why does it matter for Mozambique?
Mozambique, 2006 High growth after war, but still a very poor country Very poorly educated labor force; weak capacity in Government but strong Education team Massive increase in education infrastructure, especially in rural areas but still enrollment, dropout, completion problems What was the next step for the sector? New curriculum with fewer tests to reduce dropouts Reduce costs to households no national fees, free textbooks; expand direct support to schools Continue to expand infrastructure Question from the Government did it work? And what about secondary?
Research strategy Qualitative study first (2007) what is going on? Teachers, community leaders: removal of fees removed psychological barrier Significant unhappiness with new curriculum High demand for secondary education not met with current facilities; parents reported high fees Implement National Panel Survey, 2008 Resurvey of ¼ of households in IAF 2002/3 with children in 2002/3 Standard household data Education history module Detailed employment module What were the trends? Could any changes be attributed to the reforms?
0 Percent More kids entered school and at an earlier age 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Lower Primary Enrollment Rates over Ages by Urban/Rural, Ages 6-19 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Age Source: IAF 2002-03, MICS 2008 Urban 2003 Rural 2003 Urban 2008 Rural 2008
% Enrollment % Enrollment Gains in enrollment were highest among poor households in EP1, but not EP2 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Age Relevant Enrollment Rate in EP1 by Quintile, 2003 & 2008 2003 1 2 3 4 5 Consumption Quintiles 2008 50 40 30 20 10 Age Relevant Enrollment Rate in EP2 by Quintile, 2003 & 2008 2003 0 1 2 3 4 5 Consumption Quintiles 2008
But was this the effect of the reform? How to identify reform effects? Use information in Education History Module (crosssection) Methodology: Difference-in-differences using time (year) and child s age to identify the treatment group. Analyzed effects for (i) the whole population, (ii) marginal age by age effects, and (iii) subgroups Cross check with the analysis of panel households
-.2 0.2.4 YES! There was a clear program-induced increase in enrollment 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Age Pre-program Post-pre Post-program
Who benefited most? Controlling for all household and individual characteristics, the reforms successfully led to an average of 12% increase in the probability of enrollment for all individuals ages 6-18. The effect is particularly higher for girls and all children in rural areas There were positive spillover effects on secondary school attendance rate But demand side issues remain - females and orphans remain less likely to enroll
Mtn Constant Prices (2008) Mtn Constant Prices (2008) School fees imposed locally; higher fees in urban areas, EP2 Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees) 80.0 EP1 180.0 EP2 70.0 160.0 60.0 50.0 EP1 2003 EP1 2008 140.0 120.0 EP2 2003 EP2 2008 40.0 100.0 80.0 30.0 60.0 20.0 40.0 10.0 20.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 Consumption Quintile Consumption Quintile
Efficiency is low and many children who should be in school are not
% Why do children not go to school? Parents perceived that they are not ready 80 70 60 50 40 Supply-side problems High cost Work Marriage/Pregn/ Health Not of school age 30 20 10 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: NPS, 2008 Age
Not enough secondary school places
Moving forward - what matters for Mozambique? Very unskilled labor force holding down growth; still widespread poverty Tradeoffs: Where to put the marginal education money? last mile on EP1? Demand side or supply? EP2 even though capacity constraints not major? Secondary (where political pressure is?) ECD (to get kids ready and start on time) TVET (will this solve problems of youth bulge?)
Most of the labor force still works in household economic activities Type of Employment, Ages 20 and above 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Wage-Public sector Wage-Private sector Non-farm HH enterprise Agriculture 0% 1997 2003 2009
Share of labor force in private wage jobs in 2020 Inescapable math of the informal economy in SSA 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Annual growth rate in wage jobs Lower starting point Mean starting point Higher starting point
Are Mozambicans now entering the labor force prepared to raise productivity in the informal economy? 100% 75% Education of Youth Ages 15-25 Secondary 2 complete or above ** Secondary 1 complete 50% Primary 2 complete Primary 1 complete 25% 0% 1997 2003 2009 Primary 1 incomplete * No education
Integrated analysis: Education + Employment + Inclusive Growth brings a new point of view To get inclusive growth: fix primary Worry less about post secondary skills, more about basic skills Quality! Everyone on board w/new curriculum Start kids on time, especially in rural areas what is needed? What is the cheapest option? Use private sector for secondary school expansion? Centralized monitoring is not working; local demand side monitoring needed
Education Reform in Mozambique: Lessons and Challenges THANK YOU! Q&A C H A I R : R I T V A R E I N I K K A P R E S E N T E R S : L O U I S E F O X, VY N G U Y E N D I S C U S S A N T S : L U I S B E N V E N I S T E, B I R G E R F R E D R I K S E N