Dopady prístupu nových členských krajín k EU na vývoj niektorých makroekonomických ukazovateľov Impacts of EU- Accession of New Member States on development of some macroeconomic indices FEKETE Pál Abstract Since their accession to EU the development of main macroeconomic indices shows quite large differences in New Member States. The comparison of the development of statistical base- or chain indices of GDP and other key factors of these countries raises the question whether the accession and the different use of Community financial resources might have major impact on the different development of the mentioned indices. As basis of the comparison a neoclassic macroeconomic model has been applied showing the key factors of GDP- production while taking into consideration the known difficulties of differentiation of the evidence and impacts of the single resources, especially in the field of agriculture. Key words EU- accession, macroeconomic impacts, neoclassic model, GDP, labour- and capital factors INTRODUCTION The recent world economic crisis calls the development of main economic indices into the focus of researchers attention. The object of this article is to highlight the economic development in the four Visegrad- Countries by comparison of their gross domestic products since their accession to the European Union. The analysis aims on the global economic impacts of the accession of the mentioned countries, particularly at the question whether the accession has been an additional financial source and an impetus of speeding up their economic growth. MATERIAL AND METHODS The basic statistical materials of this analysis are the OECD Quarterly National Accounts and the published statistical data of Eurostat. The method of this work is the calculation of chain indices and annual percentage growth rates per annum, followed by a comparative analysis of the single national data. The growth rates are derived from chained volume estimates of OECD in US dollars converted using 2000 Purchasing Power Parities of GDP, reference year 2000. RESULTS The statistics show that since their accession to EU the V-4 Countries have produced different GDP- growths. Since 2006 the Czech Republic and Hungary show continuous decreasing rates, while in Poland and Slovakia up to 2007 there was a speed-up of GDP- growth, however since 2008 there are decreasing rates as well (vide Table 1, 2 and graph 1). 67
GDP of V-4 Countries in billions of US dollars (At 2000 prices and exchange rates) Table 1 Country /Year 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Czech Rep. 56.7 68.1 72.8 77.1 79.6 Hungary 48.0 59.1 61.5 62.1 62.4 Poland 171.3 199.4 211.8 225.9 236.7 Slovakia 20.4 25.9 28.1 31.1 33.0 V-4 296.4 352.5 374.2 396.2 411.7 Source: own computations Annual percentage change of GDP- growth in V-4 Countries Table 2 Country /Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Czech Rep. 20.1 6.9 5.9 3.2-3.5 Hungary 23.1 4.0 0.9 0.5 n.a. Poland 16.4 6.2 6.6 4.8 n.a. Slovakia 26.9 8.5 10.6 6.1-11.2 V-4 18.9 6.1 5.8 3.9 Source: own computations Graph1 68
Table3 Table4 Graph 2 Annual percentage change of GDP-growths in V-4 Countries 69
% 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 26,90 23,10 20,10 18,90 16,40 8,50 10,60 6,20 6,90 5,80 6,10 5,90 3,90 6,10 4,00 6,60 4,80 3,20 0,90 0,50 2005 2006 2007 2008 Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Slovakia V-4 As an impact of the world economic crisis in 2009 the - results show further decreasing rates in developed countries. According to preliminary estimates of OECD in OECD- area the GDP- rates fell by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2009, which is the largest fall since OECD records began in 1960, and followed a fall of 2.0% of GDP in the precious quarter. In the first quarter of 2009 in the major OECD- countries, so in USA GDP fell by 1.6%, in Japan it declined by 4.0%, following a 3.8% decrease in the previous quarter. At the same time GDP in the euro area fell by 2.5 %, following a 1.6% fall in the previous quarter (vide graphs 2 and 3 below). The economic depression is shown by high decrease of GDP- growth rates, and is a reality in spite of the fact that the developed countries highly support their economies, first of all the United States, but the Member States and the European Community itself as well. On evaluating the half time results of the Lisbon Strategy - since 2006 - there are ten priority actions valid to achieve a broad-based innovation strategy for the European Union. The aim of the Communication is to present a broad based innovation strategy for Europe that translates investments in knowledge into innovative products and services. The Communication proposes a 10 point programme for immediate action to make the business environment more innovation-friendly. In the following the aims and expected results of these 10 actions are described: Action 1: Establish innovation-friendly education systems Action 2: Establish a European Institute of Technology Action 3: Work towards a, single and attractive labour market for researchers Action 4: Strengthen research-industry links Action 5: Foster regional innovation through the new cohesion policy programmes Action 6: Reform R&D and innovation state aid rules and provide better guidance for R&D tax incentives Action 7: Enhance intellectual property rights protection (IPR) Action 8: Digital products and services initiative on copyright levies Action 9: Develop a strategy for innovation friendly lead Markets 70
Action 10: Stimulate innovation through procurement. The European Union generally is highly supporting economic and social actions in the Community. The Financial Perspective for 2007 2013 is witness for a huge support of different spheres of the Community, injecting totally 862 billions of Euros in the 7- years period, what means approximately 123 billion euros per annum (vide Table 3 below), of which only in the sphere of Preservation and Management of Natural Resources 43 billion Euros in average. Table 5 Source: Council of the European Union (ANNEX I DQPG EN), 2005 The GDP results of some EU- Member States, especially those of Ireland, Denmark, and Luxembourg in comparison of the years 2008 / 2007, and those of Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom of the first quarter of 2009/2008 show that in spite of a huge support there was no positive impetus on the economies, respectively, the negative contractive effects of the general international depression and other economic and non-economic factors overcome the positive effects of additional transfers and caused a remarkable contraction of their GDPs. The answer to this appearance is surely complex, but partly it might be sought in the domain of the known macroeconomic growth theories, especially in the sphere of the multiplier analysis, beginning with Kahn, Keynes, Sauermann, Schneider, Paulsen, Machlup, Samuelson and Hicks, where special attention should be paid to the analysis of state spending multiplier in frame of the fiscal policy. The latter takes into consideration - beneath the factors consume, investments and export also the impacts of state expenditures, by which the recipients by spending of state transfers can create new incomes. The effect of these transfers is the same as that of private investments and is appearing as State expenditure multiplier. At present socio- economic circumstances the Haavelmo - Theorem could us support with further arguments to get closer to an acceptable answer to the slowdown, respectively contractive powers of our economic development. According to Trygve Haavelmo If a government makes additional expenditures of T dollars, and if, at the same time, these expenditures is financing by taxes, the multiplier- effect per spent dollar is equal to one. 71
At the same time Haavelmo did not take into consideration the dynamic processes and timelags in his multiplier analysis. This theoretic lag had been improved by the dynamic analysis, where Samuelson draw the attention to the impacts of interest rates and the necessity of consideration not only the so called autonome income- independent investments, but to the induced, i.e. the income- dependent investments, too. This resulted to the formulation of the so called super-multiplier: 1 1 dy = -------------------. dia = ----------------------------. dia, s - v 1 dc di ---- - ---- dy dy where s = marginal propensity rate to save, v = marginal propensity rate to invest dia= autonome investments, while I = I (Y) ds = di + dia ds = s.dy di = v.dy s. dy = v.dy + dia (s v) dy = dia The value of super multiplier depends from the marginal propensity rate to invest when the marginal propensity rate to save is constant. CONCLUSIONS The dynamic multiplier analysis is a long term analysis where the dynamic factors of multiplier process come only after some time-lags to full effect. At the same time it should be taken into consideration that the capital stock, the techniques and the number of population are changing. It should be also seen, that at a similar situation like the present one, when additional investment demand can not be financed, the multiplier process can not have any positive impacts. This fact should not neglect the truth of the financial system of the EU where the Community budget is being financed by Member States payments, the sources of which are their GDP, VAT, all tariff revenues and the sugar-levy. These payments originally would create a part of their income revenues, but their transfer to Community budget has a negative impact on their multiplier process, predominantly in that case when member states are in the position of net-payers. Abstrakt Od prístupu k EU Nové členské krajiny vykazujú rôzne makroekonomické ukazovatele. Otázkou je, či rôzny stupeň cerpania eurofondov mal dopady na vývoj makroekonomických ukazovateľov. Východiskom analýzy bol neoklasický makroekonomický model, ktorý slúžil ako základ multiplikačnej analýzy. 72
Kľúčové slová: Prístup k EU, makroekonomické dopady, neoklasický model, HDP, vstupné factory práce a kapitálu where s = marginal propensity LITERATURE Council of the European Union (ANNEX I DQPG EN), 2005 Grundlagen der Makrooekonomi, Skriptum, Munchen, 1973 Haavelmo, T.: Multiplier Effects of a Balanced Budget, London, 1945; In Econometrica, Vol. 13 OECD. Stat Extracts: Key Short-Term Economic Indicators : Quarterly National Accounts, 2009 CONTACT: Doc.Dr.Ing. Pál Fekete, Chair of European Studies, Mariánska 10, Nitra 73