Reinsurance in Russia: HY2018 MOSCOW SEPTEMBER 2018
Data Source and Report Purposes "We are pleased to present our regular overview of the reinsurance market, which was made by RNRC on the basis of the public statistics of the Central Bank. Nikolay Kuznetsov, Chief Actuary, RNRC Nickolay.Kuznetsov@rnrc.ru Our aim is to provide the market and all interested parties with a fair view of the changes on the Russian reinsurance market. The Report is based solely on the historical data provided by insurers in their quarterly reports to the Central Bank. Publication of more comprehensive data enabled to include more detailed reinsurance geography and outward reinsurance structure reviews in this report. We are always ready to answer any questions concerning these reports which have become our regular practice." 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS Inward reinsurance o Premium growth dynamics o Market structure o Leaders o Geography o Market concentration Outward reinsurance o o o o o o Dynamics Structure Geography Leaders Loss ratio Balance with the international market 3
Inward reinsurance market dynamics Dynamics of the inward reinsurance market (million RUB) In Q2 2018, the inward reinsurance market featured the same upward trend as in Q1, thus the market grew by 32% in the first half of the year, while it declined by 12% compared to the previous year. With that the influence of RNRC has strengthened without RNRC, it would have grown by 17% only (the difference between the growth rates was less based on the Q1 results). The inward reinsurance market growth responded to a considerable increase in the outward reinsurance business as part of placements was retained on the Russian market. 6 988 9 424 10 693 9 697 6 456 7 947 The Russian inward reinsurance market has grown by 37%. Without RNRC, the market would have grown by 16%. The largest contributions (except for RNRC) have been made by VTB INSURANCE, SCOR, and VSK, while the market leaders, SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH, have rolled back. 15 511 16 128 14 748 11 015 11 791 9 565 HY 2013 HY 2014 HY 2015 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 premiums ceded by the international market premiums ceded by Russian insurers The downward trend in premiums ceded by the international market to Russian companies stopped they grew by 23% compared to 2017. While the international business share has continued to decrease being 33% of the total premiums compared to 35% in the previous year. The growth of the international business is mainly associated with an increase in the activity of CHUBB INSURANCE COMPANY, SOGAZ and RNRC. The foreign exchange rates featured instability in Q2, but the effect of exchange rate changes was minor. Such effect will be definitely considerable in Q3. Such growth was mainly due to the corporate property business, which grew by almost 4.5 billion RUB. An unexpectedly high growth was registered in the compulsory insurance of hazardous production facilities, i.e. about 1 billion RUB. 4
Inward reinsurance market structure 4,6% Inward reinsurance market structure, HY 2017 Inward reinsurance market structure, HY 2018 9,4% 10,0% 0,6% 8,3% 2,9% 2,1% 3,3% 5,0% 1,8% 0,4% 0,3% 5,6% 8,0% 7,2% 6,2% 2,2% 1,8% 7,0% 2,7% 1,1% 0,5% 0,2% 0,0% 51,2% 57,5% Corporate property Liability, including hazardous industrial facilities Aviation hull Hull and machinery Financial and business risks Compulsory carrier liability insurance Cargo Compulsory insurance of hazardous industrial facilities The volume of the corporate property business has grown considerably, which has further increased the share of this segment. The share of financial and business risks has also increased, most probably due to the growing volume of BI risks. The share of premiums ceded under personal businesses has decreased significantly due to a drop (about 500 million RUB) in reinsurance of health risks under voluntary health programs by INGOSSTRAKH while the share of accident reinsurance has increased. The unexpected growth of the compulsory carrier liability business in Q1 was followed by its decrease in Q2 compared to 2017, though being higher than in Q1. While the compulsory hazardous facility business share has increased considerably from 3.3% to 7% or almost by 1 billion RUB. At the same time, similar to the compulsory third party liability business, there was no increase in the direct business. The reason behind such indicator inconsistency in 2017 and 2018 may be the ongoing changes in accounting, and the difference between written and ceded premiums in these businesses demonstrates that reinsurance transaction posting practices in accounting vary greatly. 5
Leaders of the inward reinsurance market RNRC SOGAZ INGOSSTRAKH CHUBB SCOR P.O. VTB INSURANCE ALFASTRAKHOVANIE VSK RESO-GARANTIA RUSSIAN REINSURANCE AIG INSURANCE CAPITAL INSURANCE ALLIANZ ROSGOSSTRAKH SOGLASIE ENERGOGARANT INSURANCE BUSINESS GROUP TIT MAKS GELIOS 1143 723 1456 079 841 034 1355 932 873 755 1307 244 925 412 1144 726 242 675 750 573 444 624 728 459 458 739 612 886 532 295 576 601 491 522 507 270 332 454 337 858 448 721 273 518 256 303 253 797 176 511 186 054 7 169 160 144 133 397 120 996 87 705 109 553 2 399 99 472 3023 685 3277 442 3639 369 3611 884 3290 672 26,0% 6258 123 RNRC's share in the total amount of premiums (thousand RUB) HY 2016 HY 2017 RNRC has strengthened its leadership; the Company s market share has exceeded that in 2017 (full year) (22%). The previous market leaders, SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH, have demonstrated a variety of reinsurance volume trends. At that INGOSSTRAKH has demonstrated stable performance, except for the voluntary health insurance segment. The rest of the active market players have become more active: all Top 10 companies have considerably increased their volumes by 25% or more, and VSK premiums have tripled. Only ROSGOSSTRAKH has decreased its volumes among the top players. 6
Leaders of the inward reinsurance market in the Russian Federation RNRC INGOSSTRAKH VTB INSURANCE SCOR P.O. SOGAZ ALFASTRAKHOVANIE RESO-GARANTIA VSK RUSSIAN REINSURANCE ALLIANZ ROSGOSSTRAKH CAPITAL INSURANCE SOGLASIE ENERGOGARANT INSURANCE BUSINESS GROUP MAKS RENAISSANCE INSURANCE TIT AIG INSURANCE CHULPAN 789 915 1140 128 599 861 1070 087 1237 639 945 098 752 213 884 747 433 447 711 417 219 674 640 359 341 054 410 348 316 956 323 102 414 490 269 764 175 928 238 970 218 365 202 768 171 003 174 775 6 863 159 451 83 912 107 782 9 716 97 403 103 549 89 315 116 483 80 151 61 934 64 816 2104 367 1846 892 2989 744 37,0% 5966 591 RNRC's share in the total amount of premiums HY 2016 HY 2017 РН 2018 (thousand RUB) RNRC has established itself as the leader, and based on the data for the 1st half of the year its share on the internal reinsurance market has slightly increased compared to the full year of 2017 (34.6%). The previous leaders, SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH, have showed reduced performance in their reinsurance business. SOGAZ has even shifted to the 4 th position. INGOSSTRAKH would have demonstrated a slight growth if not for its voluntary health business. Almost all major companies, except for ROSGOSSTRAKH, have increased their volumes. The events that are worth noting include the return of SCOR, triple growth of VSK and almost double growth of RESO- GARANTIA. 7
Leaders of the market of inward reinsurance from abroad SOGAZ INGOSSTRAKH CHUBB AIG INSURANCE COMPANY RNRC SCOR P.O. CAPITAL INSURANCE ALFASTRAKHOVANIE RUSSIAN REINSURANCE VTB INSURANCE VSK GELIOS SOGLASIE TIT LEKSGARANT ARSENAL RESO GARANTIA ALLIANZ GUTA INSURANCE ENERGOGARANT 415 812 496 450 33 941 291 532 241 173 285 845 315 594 268 301 173 199 259 979 117 685 202 538 83 840 167 116 23 001 110 214-94 780 37 938 51 029 29 848 31 682 49 895 30 540 25 299 18 836 11 177 17 042 15 498 14 756 10 188 11 386 5 508 11 279 1507 517 1443 780 1116 811 1402 546 3,7% 2039 803 RNRC's share in the total amount of premiums 2694 270 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 (thousand RUB) The market leaders, SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH, have demonstrated a variety of reinsurance volume trends. SOGAZ has demonstrated better performance compared to 2016, while INGOSSTRAKH is gradually decreasing its foreign portfolio. In addition to SOGAZ, growth leaders in absolute terms include CHUBB and RNRC. However, most market players have also considerably increased their foreign portfolios in relative terms. Such major insurers as VSK and VTB INSURANCE have at least doubled their portfolios. RNRC has notably increased its foreign market share from 1.5% in 2017 to 3.7%. 8
Countries ceding premiums to Russia Top 20 leading countries in terms of the amount of premiums ceded to Russian insurers GREAT BRITAIN CHINA REPUBLIC OF KOREA FINLAND KAZAKHSTAN GERMANY UNITED ARAB EMIRATES INDIA SLOVENIA CAYMAN ISLANDS SERBIA UNITED STATES SWEDEN VIETNAM GEORGIA REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BELARUS FRANCE EGYPT UKRAINE - 132 797 312 891 416 162 488 220 397 160 462 935 319 924 406 664 426 995 395 627 278 087 364 714 279 252 267 112 218 450 191 234 203 284 62 537 176 301 146 294 170 063 167 886 150 609 106 067 149 715 168 337 149 373 269 512 124 600 203 304 111 413 15 538 111 017 224 107 109 997 501 191 873 537 1137 298 1404 429 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 (thousand RUB) After a very unsuccessful year of 2017, most currently leading countries have increased their premiums ceded to Russia. The relative growth leaders include CHINA, KOREA, USA, and EGYPT. The first two are also leading in terms of absolute growth. While the growth of premiums from CHINA is due to SOGAZ and RNRC to a lesser degree, the premiums from KOREA were split fifty-fifty between SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH. The sevenfold growth of premiums from EGYPT is due to the return of SOGAZ to this market. The CAYMAN ISLANDS appeared in this list for the first time, but with rather serious premium amounts ceded to several major companies. Earlier, this country was listed among premiums ceded to RESPECT Company. The largest decrease has been demonstrated by BELARUS (due to a drop in SOGAZ operations), FRANCE and UKRAINE (due to a decrease in INGOSSTRAKH operations). 9
Inward reinsurance market concentration Market shares of Top 2, Top 3 and Top 10 leaders of the inward reinsurance market 70% 77% 85% 85% 47% 50% 51% 26% 28% 28% 23% 23% 20% 43% 37% 46% 56% 55% 39% 41% 41% FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 HY 2018 Top 2 Top 3 Top 10 The leaders managed to win back a bit in Q2 after a significant drop in their share in Q1. Based on the results of the 1 st half of 2018, the structure is very similar to that in 2017. The share of Top 3 companies has decreased slightly due to the performance of other Top 10 companies. The share of Top 10 companies has also relapsed to the level of 2017 (being 81% in the 1 st half of the year), which is probably indicative of market concentration coming to its saturation. 10
Outward reinsurance market dynamics Dynamics of the outward reinsurance market (million RUB) Q2 2018 was considerably worse than Q1 and even 13% worse than Q2 2017. However, ceded premiums have increased by 14% compared to the same period of the previous year. This was partly due to the repeatedly referenced effect of the carryover of some placements, first of all, of Lukoil (from Q1 2017 to Q4 2016). Growth rates in Q2 varied greatly both in the domestic and international segments that demonstrated a decrease by 20%. As a result, the share of Russian placements in the 1 st half of the year increased from 22% to 24%. 42 449 51 339 49 250 55 471 47 605 52 919 RNRC accounts for a considerable share in the domestic market growth by 24%, the trend would be weak upward without RNRC s premiums it would have grown by 2% (provided that the reported premiums ceded to RNRC are the same as premiums accepted by RNRC). But the share of RNRC has restored after its drop in Q1 and even compared to its year end performance in 2017. This is partly due to increased premiums accepted for risks subject to sanctions after a new round of April sanctions against Russian companies. This mostly affected INGOSSTRAKH operations as a key insurer of RUSAL Group. 17 681 16 664 11 788 11 751 13 190 16 350 HY 2013 HY 2014 HY 2015 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 premiums ceded in Russia premiums ceded abroad Most major insurers have increased their reinsurance volumes. In absolute terms, the key contribution was made by CAPITAL INSURANCE, PROMINSTRAKH, VTB INSURANCE and SOGAZ, each demonstrating growth by more than 1 billion RUB. The highest growth of PROMINSTRAKH was mainly registered in the builder s risk reinsurance segment. Based on the data for the 1 st half of the year, premiums ceded are more consistent with direct business amounts, which haven t experienced any considerable changes. Foreign exchange changes, through more active in Q2, still had no effect in the reporting period. 11
Dynamics of the outward reinsurance ratio Ratio of ceded premiums to direct and assumed premiums, excluding life insurance and compulsory motor third party liability insurance 15,4% 16,3% 16,5% 14,7% 15,6% 15,6% HY 2013 HY 2014 HY 2015 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 Based on the data for the 1 st half of the year, the share of outward reinsurance has considerably decreased (about 1%) after its unexpected growth in Q1. The ratio of outward reinsurance premiums to the total direct and assumed reinsurance premiums has considerably increased at the end of the 1 st half of the year (excluding life insurance and compulsory motor TPL premiums), though it is notably higher than in the previous year, but notably lower that in Q1 2016 a record-breaking year in terms of total ceded premiums. 12
Risks with smaller shares Ratio of ceded premiums to direct and assumed premiums (voluntary business) In the 1 st half of 2018, the shares of ceded risks in certain segments changed significantly. Total life Total personal Total liability 0,2% 0,4% 2,6% 3,1% 23% 35% The business risk segment was strongly influenced by the behavior of the market leader. SOGAZ has notably increased its ceded premiums in this business. The level of premiums ceded in the corporate property business returned to a more normal level after its sudden growth in Q1. Total property Corporate property Business risk 25% 23% 47% 47% 61% 75% In liability insurance, there was a significant increase both in the share of ceded premiums and in absolute premiums in default risk insurance, which is supposedly associated with increased builder s risk reinsurance volumes. Cargo Hull and machinery 8% 7% 20% 30% The share of reinsurance in the cargo segment continued to decrease, while its share in other complex risks, aviation and marine hull, is regaining its levels in earlier periods. Aviation hull Financial risks Marine 7% 9% 26% 21% 40% 36% The share of hull and machinery premiums ceded is growing as it has been mentioned above due to this business relevance as a tool to improve regulatory performance both in terms of the required capital and covered assets. Personal property Agriculture 1% 2% 26% 25% HY 2018 It is reasonable to expect that this trend will continue or even grow, if the ban on reinsurance in this segment is lifted, within the framework of TPL insurance. Railway 3% 11% HY 2017 13
11,2% Outward reinsurance market structure Outward reinsurance market structure, 1 st half of 2017 Outward reinsurance market structure, 1 st half of 2018 7,7% 9,3% 0,8% 7,8% 4,5% 4,3% 1,1% 1,0% 0,7% 2,9% 1,1% 0,1% 13,0% 9,4% 9,6% 6,5% 0,6% 3,0% 4,3% 2,7% 1,0% 0,7% 2,4% 0,7% 0,0% 47,5% 46,0% Corporate property Liability including hazardous industrial facilities Voluntary medical insurance and accident insurance Aviation hull Marine Life Financial and business risks Hull and machinery Cargo Compulsory insurance of hazardous industrial facilities Personal property Compulsory carrier liability insurance The 1 st half of 2018, unlike Q1, is almost similar to the same period of the previous year. The share of business risks has increased due to SOGAZ. The share of hull and machinery reinsurance has leveled off in the reviewed years, but at a higher level than before, mainly due to a sudden increase in demand for reinsurance of this business on behalf of insurers in order to lower regulatory capital requirements. The share of compulsory hazardous facility reinsurance has increased considerably due to its twofold growth in absolute terms. As a result, the shares of other segments have decreased, as in liability insurance, which has increased in absolute terms but whose share has notably decreased in the total volume. Companies have become less active in the voluntary health reinsurance segment. 14
Share of treaty reinsurance SOGAZ INGOSSTRAKH SOGLASIE ALFASTRAKHOVANIE VTB INSURANCE CAPITAL INSURANCE RESO-GARANTIA PROMINSTRAKH ALLIANZ AIG INSURANCE ACE INSURANCE COMPANY RESPECT RSKHB-INSURANCE VSK SCOR P.O. ZURICH RELIABLE INSURANCE HDI INSURANCE NASKO TATARSTAN RENAISSANCE INSURANCE GROUP 1st half of 2017 ALLIANZ LIFE TOTAL 13% 27% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 6% 17% 19% 41% 64% 55% 95% 96% 96% 74% 87% 51% 54% 77% 83% 82% 85% 88% 76% 78% 79% 92% 99% 76% 91% 101% The structure of the market in terms of the prevailing form of reinsurance looks quite stable. In 2018, the share of treaty insurance has grown slightly, mainly due to an increased share of treaties in the portfolio of SOGAZ. As it can be seen, the share of treaties of subsidiaries of foreign insurers (usually 4,3% for the benefit of the parent) is, as a rule, equal to 100 percent. It is also evident that the share of facultative reinsurance in the portfolios of major insurers is considerably larger due to the need for reinsurance of major risks. 15
Share of treaty reinsurance SOGAZ INGOSSTRAKH SOGLASIE ALFASTRAKHOVANIE VTB INSURANCE CAPITAL INSURANCE RESO-GARANTIA PROMINSTRAKH ALLIANZ AIG INSURANCE ACE INSURANCE COMPANY RESPECT RSKHB-INSURANCE VSK SCOR P.O. ZURICH RELIABLE INSURANCE HDI INSURANCE NASKO TATARSTAN RENAISSANCE INSURANCE GROUP 1st half of 2017 ALLIANZ LIFE TOTAL 5% 0% 0% 0% 10% 19% 36% 49% 63% 84% 94% 95% 68% 72% 72% 60% 35% 86% 86% 93% 92% 52% 54% 85% 75% 61% 76% 46% 83% 98% 74% 83% 98% 99% 63% 63% The structure of the market in terms of the prevailing form of reinsurance looks quite stable across the market in general and varies greatly at the level of individual insurers. The share of proportional reinsurance of major companies is usually smaller. However, the choice of the reinsurance type depends on multiple 4,3% factors, including those that are related to reinsurance type effects on regulatory insurance indicators. It should be noted that the share of treaties of subsidiaries of foreign insurers (usually for the benefit of the parent) is, as a rule, equal to 100 percent. However, there was an exclusion from this rule in 2018, i.e. HDI INSURANCE. 16
Countries where premiums go to from Russia Top 20 leading countries in terms of the amount of premiums ceded by Russian insurers UK GERMANY FRANCE SWITZERLAND UNITED STATES CYPRUS BAHRAIN CHINA IRELAND BERMUDAS BELGIUM CAYMAN ISLANDS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES JAPAN INDIA ITALY BARBADOS LUXEMBOURG FINLAND SWEDEN 270 170 2061 897 1040 229 1553 078 1012 270 1288 015 916 287 1245 899 1588 082 1222 051 636 130 1200 706 935 304 826 036 287 396 804 142 131 703 772 514 1037 384 756 391 220 596 731 351 777 697 716 632 801 913 510 224 487 633 467 856 208 788 457 928 3679 086 4445 355 4186 312 3852 443 3697 520 3230 737 11966 505 11406 086 9100 034 11352 846 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 (thousand RUB) The country-level dynamics of premiums ceded is rather mixed as 11 of 20 countries have demonstrated growth while 9 countries have demonstrated decline. At that such decline is estimated as 35%, while premiums ceded to Cyprus increased by 7.5 times (mainly due to builder s liability risks ceded by PROMINSTRAKH). The highest growth in absolute terms has been demonstrated by premiums ceded to Germany as a result of growth of premiums of many companies at once. France ranks the third in terms of absolute growth due to premiums ceded by SCOR and ALFASTRAKHOVANIE. The threefold growth of premiums ceded to Italy is due to the return of INGOSSTRAKH that used to cede considerable amounts of premiums to Italy in 2016. UK accounts for the largest share loss in premiums in absolute terms due to a decrease in premiums ceded by SOGAZ (by 1.6 billion RUB) that was not compensated by an increase in premiums ceded to UK by CAPITAL INSURANCE (about 1 billion RUB). 17
Leaders of the outward reinsurance market SOGAZ INGOSSTRAKH SOGLASIE ALFASTRAKHOVANIE VTB INSURANCE CAPITAL INSURANCE RESO-GARANTIA PROMINSTRAKH ALLIANZ AIG INSURANCE GROUP CHUBB RESPECT RSKHB-INSURANCE VSK SCOR P.O. ZURICH RELIABLE HDI INSURANCE NASKO TATARSTAN RENAISSANCE ALLIANZ LIFE 5838 105 6824 848 5111 916 5124 660 3968 329 4732 950 2201 332 3754 059 806 667 3008 914 1941 108 2439 210 162 999 2064 041 1872 932 1748 837 1559 293 1712 091 1154 589 1517 708 1402 764 1376 766 1134 791 1094 444 1113 116 972 807 566 525 852 657 839 304 843 731 490 739 800 359 169 957 724 034 482 506 676 665 582 803 670 150 18327 735 19451 929 8,6% RNRC s share in total ceded premiums HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 (thousand RUB) The majority of companies increased the amounts of ceded premiums. The most notable increase in the 1 st half of the year was reported by CAPITAL INSURANCE; the amounts of premiums of PROMINSTRAKH also raced up (due to increased builder s liability premiums); VTB INSURANCE ranks third with the amount of 4,3% premiums ceded under corporate property insurance of 1.4 billion RUB). VSK demonstrated the sharpest downward trend in reinsurance in the 1 st half of the year. 18
Dynamics of claims paid by reinsurers Dynamics of claims paid by reinsurers (million RUB) 25035 031 31365 498 18559 862 10143 219 7769 305 12472 842 4429 398 5761 288 6347 065 3616 222 4531 946 4430 323 HY 2013 HY 2014 HY 2015 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 within Russia abroad The last years were very unsuccessful for reinsurers. An unusually high value of the reinsurers' share in paid claims in the first half of 2016 was due to the loss claimed under Achinsk Refinery reinsurance (the loss of SOGAZ). In the 1 st half of 2017 a significant amount of paid claims was due to the final settlement of loss in respect of Berezovskaya GRES, which amounted to about RUB 26 billion, of which about RUB 20 billion were paid in 2017. 2018 has been successful for reinsurers up to this point. 19
Loss ratio Dynamics of premiums growth outward reinsurance (million RUB) Loss ratio (%) 60 130 68 003 61 038 67 221 60 795 69 269 24% 20% 31% 43% 59% 33% 1st half of 2013 1st half of 2014 1st half of 2015 1st half of 2016 1st half of 2017 1st half of 2018 total premiums paid claims Despite the fact that the last years were very unsuccessful for reinsurers due to a number of large paid claims, the reinsurance market remains generally attractive, as the amount of paid claims is generally low. 20
Dynamics of outflow of funds from Russia 50 000 43 570 (million RUB) 40 000 36 777 30 000 32 306 30 436 34 359 20 000 10 000-16 240 HY 2013 HY 2014 HY 2015 HY 2016 HY 2017 HY 2018 A major portion of the positive balance between premiums and paid claims goes to the international market. A considerable decrease in the positive balance in the 1 st half of 2016 was due to large paid claims, and in the 1 st half of 2017 was due to both large paid claims and a decrease in ceded premiums, partly due to the transfer of some premiums from international markets to Russia in connection with the establishment of RNRC. But the 1 st half of 2018 has been more favorable for the Western reinsurers, though not so bright as Q1 2018. An increase in premiums ceded against relatively standard losses resulted in a normal balance. Certainly, this simple figure should be viewed warily, as it does not take into account any reserved and outstanding claims or information on unpaid premiums. Nevertheless, it can be indicative and as such is quite useful. 21
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