Presentation to EPI - Washington Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 19 May 1
The magnitude of the global crisis led to a contraction of GDP not seen in the 198s in the region LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN : GDP GROWTH (Percentages) 8 Debt Tequila Argentine 6 4 - Savings and loans Asian- Russian Current -4 198 1981 198 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Growth Trend Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 9
The growth rate fell more steeply than it had in other crises LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN : GROWTH RATES BEFORE AND DURING CRISIS EPISODES (Average growth rates before and during the crisis) Pre crisis averages correspond to: Tequila: 199 1993 Asian Russian: 1996 1997 Argentine: 1 Current: 3 7 6 5 4 3 1-1 - -3 Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6 5.7..5.4 -.4-1.9-1.8 Tequila Asian-Russian Argentine Current Pre-crisis average Growth during the crisis 7 6 5 4 3 1-1 - -3 South America 5.8 3.7 4. 4. 1.5.1-1. -.3 Tequila Asian-Russian Argentine Current 5 4 3 1-1 - Mexico and Central America 4.5 4. 4.7 3.5.5.5 1.6-1. Tequila Asian-Russian Argentine Current Pre-crisis average Growth during the crisis Pre-crisis average Growth during the crisis Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 9
The effects of financial crises are associated with deteriorating external conditions Tightening of external financing Sudden stops The tightening of external financing has translated into a domestic credit crunch Interruption of trade flows Fall in exports
The international crisis shifted the dynamics of financial flows into the region Net financial flows (Percentages of GDP) Net financial inflows and outflows (Percentages of GDP) 1% 5% 1% 4% % -1% -1% 3% % 1% % -% -1% -% -% -3% I-7 II-7 III-7 IV-7 I-8 II-8 III-8 IV-8 I-9 II-9 III-9 IV-9-3% I-7 II-7 III-7 IV-7 I-8 II-8 III-8 IV-8 I-9 II-9 III-9 IV-9 Inflows Outflows Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Note: Simple average, includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Does not include FDI.
Remittances also decreased 4% LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN : REMITTANCES (QUARTERLY DATA) (Annualized growth rates) 3% % 1% % -1% -% Guatemala El Salvador Mexico Nicaragua Dominican Rep. Ecuador Colombia Jamaica -3% 1Q 7 Q 7 3Q 7 4Q 7 1Q 8 Q 8 3Q 8 4Q 8 1Q 9 Q 9 3Q 9 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
And the crisis has also damaged the region s trade flows LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (SIX COUNTRIES): EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (Percentage annual variation in total value) 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% % -1% -% -3% -4% -5% Nov-9 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Exports Imports Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Note: Simple average; includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
At the same time, the domestic credit growth slowed heavily in Latin America 5% LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (6 COUNTRIES): CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR (Percentage annual variation, in real terms) % 15% 1% 5% % Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Note: Simple average; includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
Despite the difference with respect to other crises, this episode does not seem to have compromised growth in stocks LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (7 COUNTIRES): MONTHS OF IMPORTS COVERED WITH INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AND EXTERNAL DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 198-9 15 8 External debt Months of import cover with international reserves 1 5 Asia Argentina 7 6 5 4 3 198 1981 198 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 External debt as a percentage of GDP Years IR/Imports External dbt/gdp Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
This is partly thanks to macroeconomic achievements prior to the crisis Macroeconomic performance was exceptional in 3-7: Highest per capita growth rates for the past three decades, 3.7% Average rate in the 197s was 3.1% Macroeconomic stability Non-financial public sector debt fell from 59% of GDP to 33% Large build-up of international reserves Level of reserves more than doubled, from US$ 189 billion in 3 to US$ 433 billion in 7
And helped to underpin countercyclical policies in the region Most of the countries announced fiscal stimulus packages These vary from 1% to 6% of GDP Most packages are directed at increasing spending On expanding and maintaining infrastructure On social sectors On support for SMEs On job creation They also include tax policies (tax cuts) to stimulate private spending on consumption and investment Cuts in direct and indirect taxes and increased exemptions Cuts in social security contributions Fuel prices freezes or cuts
On the monetary front the countries reduced their interest rates LATIN AMERICA: MONETARY POLICY RTES IN COUNTRIES WITH INFLATION TARGETS, JANUARY 7-MARCH 1 16 14 Brazil 1 1 Colombia Mexico 8 6 Chile Peru 4 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
Lastly, public-sector credit was boosted to compensate for the fall in private lending LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (7 COUNTRIES): GROWTH IN TOTAL LENDING (IN REAL TERMS), 7-9 3 6% 8% 5 % 17% 16% 19% 15 1 5 7% 4% -4% -5 7 8 9 Total lending Private lending Public lending Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of IDB (1).
The countercyclical role of the public financial systems was particularly significant in Brazil BRAZIL: INDEX OF CREDIT TO GDP OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY INDEX, JANUARY 8-OCTOBER 9 175 165 January-December 8 January-October 9 Index: January 8=1 155 145 135 15 115 15 95 85 75 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Public financial institutions Private financial institutions Activity index Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Bacen (1).
This paved the way for an upturn in economic activity LATIN AMERICA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percentage annual variation) 15% Crisis Recovery 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Note: Simple average, includes Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
The recovery will firm up in 1 with growth estimated at 4.1% LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROWTH RATES, 1 (Percentages) Brazil Uruguay Peru Panama Chile Bolivia (Plur. State of) South America Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Dominican Republic Mexico Costa Rica Paraguay Ecuador Cuba Central America Colombia Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Nicaragua Haiti Guatemala El Salvador The Caribbean Honduras 1.5..... 1.8.5 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.1 4. 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5. 5. 1 3 4 5 6 5.5 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
Widespread recovery in the region LATIN AMERICA: GDP GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS, 9 AND 1 (Percentages) 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8 Mexico Paraguay Honduras El Salvador Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Chile Nicaragua Costa Rica Guatemala Ecuador Brazil Colombia Argentina Peru Uruguay Dominican Rep. Panama Bolivia (Plur. State of) 9 1 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
LABOUR MARKET AND VULNERABILITY TO THE CRISIS
The crisis adversely affected the labour market and reversed some of the gains made in recent years LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATES OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT, 199-9 (Percentages) 56 1 55 11 54 1 53 9 5 8 51 7 5 6 199 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 e Employment rate (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) The fall in the participation rate contained the rise in unemployment, which reached around 8.3% in 9 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
The social impacts of the crisis have also been severe, as shown by the rise in unemployment and poverty LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE a (Percentages) 6 1 5 4.5 48.3 43.8 44. 1 4 43.5 8 3 36.3 34.1 33. 34.1 6.5 18.6 19. 18.5 19.4 4 13.3 1.6 1.9 13.7 1 198 199 1997 1999 6 7 8 9 b Indigence Poverty Unemployment rate (right axis) Source: Economic Commission for LAC (ECLAC), on the basis of household surveys. a The numbers of poor and indigent are based on estimates for 19 countries of the region, including Haiti. b The figures for 8 and 9 are estimates.
Slower inflation helped to protect workers real income LATIN AMERICA: NOMINAL WAGES, INFLATION AND REAL WAGES a (Percentages) 1 1 8 Growth in real wages: 4.5% 6 13. 13. 1.4 4 5.8 8 9 Variation in nominal wage Inflation This helped to mitigate the impact on poverty Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ELCAC), on the basis of official figures. a Simple average for 1 countries.
Public spending both current and capital rose LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (SELECTED COUNTRIES): YEAR-ON-YEAR VARIATION IN PUBLIC SPENDING, FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 9 (Percentages of GDP) Uruguay 1.8.4 Peru.6 1.1 Mexico.6 1. Ecuador.9.6 Colombia a 1.4 Chile.4.8 Brazil.6.6 Argentina 1.9.8..5 1. 1.5..5 3. 3.5 Current spending Capital spending Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ELCAC), on the basis of official figures. a Semester data.
EXPECTATIONS IN VIEW OF THE CRISIS
It is still uncertain whether the region can look forward to sustained growth in the medium term The effects of this crisis are not limited to temporary factors of the business cycle: The magnitude and systemic nature of the crisis suggest that more structural changes will take place on the global scene There is a growing perception that global dynamics will shift towards a new normal, which will have three main features: Lower actual and potential growth rates in developing economies Less expansion in international financial markets Smaller trade flows
In the developed countries, potential GDP will be lower and will grow more slowly in the medium term 165 Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis 155 Scenario I (.3%) 145 Potential GDP (.3%) Scenario II (1%-1.5%) 135 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ELCAC), on the basis of OECD (9) and the European Commission (9).
It will not be easy to recover pre-crisis global growth rates in the medium term Aggregate demand has to be rebalanced between countries. But consensus and clarity on how to achieve this are lacking The developed countries account for much of world consumption United States 34% and OECD 84% of global consumption on average for 4-7 Emerging economies (Asia-China) have room to increase domestic demand, but face major internal constraints Public and private domestic demand need to be rebalanced It will be hard to maintain fiscal stimuli It is not clear how to replace public spending with private spending
The financial and trade landscape will also be different in the post-crisis world It will take time to remedy disfunctional financial systems Smaller financial flows to developing regions Domestic bias and financial protectionism Changes in financial regulation On the trade front: Prolonged slowdown in import demand from developed economies: slower growth in world trade Greater reliance on protectionist practices Slow pace of recovery in credit and settlements systems Disruption of global production chains Trade will continue to provide opportunities for growth
The implications of this new context vary widely within Latin America The effects will be greater in economies that have: Strong dependence on developed countries for trade and financial flows, less developed financial systems, limited access to international financial markets and little capacity to substitute external demand with domestic demand Countries that export raw materials may benefit depending on: The depth of South-South trade The evolution of demand from emerging economies and commodity export prices
To achieve sustainable growth in this new context, the region must deal with four major shortfalls Productivity and investment Education Inequality and social protection Climate change
This will require Redefinition of the role of the State and of public policies: Macro policies conducive to productive development Investment promotion Knowledge- and innovation-driven increase in competitiveness Stronger social policies and institutions Sustainable use of natural resources and environmental stewardship A new political covenant for democratic governance
THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY
RECENT PAST
After the lost decade of the 198s came the difficult 199s and the achievements of the new century The lost decade The difficult '9s Substantive achievements 5 48.3 48 44.3 46 4.5 44 4 4 38 Poverty rate 36 33 34 3 3 198 198 1984 1986 1988 199 199 1994 1996 1998 4 6 8
Four allies contributed to the drop in poverty between 199 and 8, to different extents in different periods Economic growth (the 199s, with higher employment rates, and starting in, with both higher employment and higher income) Distributive improvements (only -8) Strong expansion in social spending (begins rising again in 199s and consolidates between and 8) Demographic effect (lower rates of fertility and dependency and smaller average households, more pronounced in the first stage than in the second)
Unlike in the 199s, between and 8 there was a SECOND ALLY: income distribution inequality decreased significantly LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): GINI INDEX, AROUND AND 8.65.6 Countries in which inequality increased GT CO HN BO BR 8.55.5 CR RD MX SV EC PE PA PY NI CL AR Latin America.45.4 UY VE Countries in which inequality decreased.4.45.5.55.6.65 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a Urban areas.
Third ally: as well as GDP growth, social spending gained a higher priority within public spending LATIN AMERICA (1 COUNTRIES): SOCIAL PUBLIC SPENDING AND TOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING IN RELATION TO GDP (Percentages) 35.9 3 Total public spending.8 5.7 Fiscal priority of SPS.61 17.9.6.5 15 1.44 Social public spending 1.4 199 1991 199 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6 7 8.4.3 SPS % of GDP weighted average TPS % of GDP weighted average Ratio SPS/TPS Poly. (Ratio SPS/TPS) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), social spending database, on the basis of official information.
Fourth ally: between 199 and 1 the dependency rate was still falling sharply Number of persons of non-working age per 1 persons of working age: (-14) + (6 +) / (15-59) Steep decline: Easy gains from dividend (197-1/15) Stabilization at low levels: Dividend remains, but its effect depends on other factors (1/15-1) 1 9 8 7 Beginning of the end of the demographic dividend: Dependency rate begins to rise 1-6 5 195 196 197 198 199 1 3 4 5 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC.
THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY
The past the region must avoid repeating: social recovery that lags behind economic recovery LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (WEIGHTED AVERAGE FOR 19 COUNTRIES): PER CAPITA GDP AND POVERTY RATES, 198-8 (In dollars and percentage rate of the population) 5 48.3 5 Per capita GDP 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 4 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 45.7 43.3 43.5 4.5 4.5 Return to previous poverty level: 5 years Recovery of per capita GDP: 14 years 3886 36 365 343 331 4597 44.3 4. 39.8 36.3 3746 34.1 33. 48 46 44 4 4 38 36 34 3 Poverty rate 3 3 1978 198 198 1984 1986 1988 199 199 1994 1996 1998 4 6 8 1 Per capita GDP Poverty Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys in the respective countries, for poverty data, and official information, for GDP data.
Social outlook 9 The global financial crisis will cause regional GDP to fall by around 1.8% in 9 For the first time in six years, poverty levels will stop falling and start to rise. The downward trend in extreme poverty has already been reversed by the spike in food prices in 8 ECLAC projects that between 8 and 9 the proportion of poor people in the region will increase from 33% to 34.1% (by 1.1 percentage points). The indigent population is projected to increase from 1.9% to 13.7% (by.8 percentage points) In 9 there will be 9 million more poor and 5 million more indigents than there were in 8
In terms of regional averages, the downturn 9 will not erase all the gains made previous six years, but it will halt reverse the positive trends LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: POVERTY AND EXTREME POVERTY a, 198 9 (In percentages and millions of people) Percentage of the population Millions of persons 6 3 5 4 4.5 48.3 43.8 44. 36.3 34.1 33. 34.1 5 11 1 193 184 18 189 3 18.6.5 18.5 19.4 13.3 1.6 1.9 13.7 15 1 136 6 93 89 97 71 68 71 76 1 5 198 199 1999 6 7 8 9 198 199 1999 6 7 8 9 Indigent Non-indigent poor Indigent Non-indigent poor Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys in the respective countries. a Estimates for 19 countries of the region, including Haiti. The figures above the bars represent the percentage and total number of poor (indigent plus non-indigent poor), respectively.
Why the social impact has been smaller than in previous crises Three pieces of good news that set this crisis apart from previous crises: no fiscal collapse of States no inflation or hyperinflation no collapse of financial systems Governments and multilateral agencies are able and willing to support countercyclical monetary and fiscal measures. This contrasts sharply with the situation in the 198s The sustained increase in social spending and social protection instruments has helped to mitigate the social effects of the crisis All this has helped to sustain higher levels of activity and employment, protect the value of wages and maintain or expand social protection systems
The shifting boundaries of well-being: a large proportion of the population is at risk LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): PROFILE OF INCOME VULNERABILITY BY COUNTRY, 8 (Percentages) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% % Uruguay 63.3 6. 58. 55.7 5.4 49. 17.5 17.9 18.9 14.7 15.5 17.1 16.9 17.9 15.7 19.4 16.6 41.9 1.7. 5.5 35.5 35.1 3.9.. 3.6 8.8 16.6 5. 3.3 4.5 4.4 6. 9.5 1.5 14. 1.9 13.7 16.1 5.4 19.7 Chile Costa Rica Argentina Brazil Panama Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) Mexico Peru Dominican Rep. Ecuador 8.6 8. 4.7 3.7 1.5 18.7 16. 14. 19.4 16.4 Colombia 18.3 3.3 31.6 5.1 5.4 El Salvador Bolivia (Plur. State of) 14.7 14.6 15. 6.4 31.5 3. 13.9 3.5 35. 3.4 34.3 37.4 Guatemala Paraguay Nicaragua Honduras 11. 5.5 49.5 Indigent and highly vulnerable to indigence (up to.6 PL) Vulnerable to poverty (1.-1.8 PL) Poor and highly vulnerable to poverty (.61-1. PL) Not vulnerable (over 1.8 PL) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys in the respective countries.
Women and children are still the most vulnerable to poverty. They increased as a proportion of the poor population from to 8 LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): RATIO BETWEEN THE POVERTY RATE OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN AND THAT OF THE REST OF THE POPULATION, AROUND AND 8 a Children between and 14 years of age / Persons aged 14 and older Women/ Men(aged to59) 3. 1.4 1.35.5 1.3 1.5. 1. 1.15 1.5 1.1 1.5 1. 1. Argentina b Bolivia c Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador c El Salvador Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama c Paraguay b Peru Dominican Rep. Uruguay c Venezuela (Bol. Rep).95 Argentina b Bolivia c Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador c El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panamá c a Paraguay b Peru Dominican Rep. Uruguay c Venezuela (Bol. Rep.) 8 8 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a Countries, in order of variation in annual poverty rate. The year corresponds to the most recent survey available between and, and 8 represents surveys available between 4 and 8. b Metropolitan area. c Urban area.
New demands will arise as a result of the gradual aging of the care burden LATIN AMERICA AND 4 SELECTED COUNTRIES: POPULATION IN NEED OF CARE PER 1 POTENTIAL CARERS, BY AGE GROUP, -5 (Percentages) 4 35 3 6% Cuba Chile Costa Rica Mexico 5 34% 15 1 5 1 3 4 5 Children aged under 1 Persons aged 75 and over Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)- Population Division of ECLAC, Population estimates and projections, 8.
FUTURE SCENARIOS: THE CHALLENGE FOR SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS
The new conditions for combating poverty are not merely temporary: a steep road lies ahead Negative growth rates in 9 and modest growth in 1 In many countries, between 1 and the easy stage of the demographic dividend will be over Countries fiscal capacity means that social spending is unlikely to grow at rates similar to those seen from 199 to 8 Distributive struggles will increase as the pie grows slowly or not at all
Monetary transfers improve income of poorest sectors LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): SHARE OF THE POOREST 4% OF HOUSEHOLDS IN INCOME BEFORE AND AFTER TRANSFERS a, AROUND 8 (Percentages) 16 Share in income after transfers (%). 15 14 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 BR HN AR Countries in which the share of the poorest 4% increases BO PA DO CL CO GT AL CR EC PY MX NI UY PE VN SV Countries in which the share of the poorest 4% decreases 6 6 8 1 1 14 16 Share in income before transfers (%) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a Income before transfers refers to the per capita income obtained by households through their participation in the labour market (primary income). The households reported as low-income before transfers are not necessarily the same as those reported as low-income after transfers.
Some 19 million people are thought to be living in poverty in 9, and 11 million of them are benefiting from CTPs. So there is still room for extending programmes and covering more families who are unable to meet their basic needs LATIN AMERICA (17 COUNTRIES): COVERAGE OF CONDITIONAL TRANSFER PROGRAMMES, 6/9 a (Percentages of the poor and indigent population) CTPbeneficiaries/indigent andpoor population >1 >1 >1 >1 >1 >1 1. 93.4 Percentage indigent population 9. 83.9 83.3 84.3 Percentage poor population 8. 71. 7. 63.7 6. 54.7 55.7 51.7 51.9 5. 4. 41.6 41.1 38.7 36. 35.3 36.4 34.7 3. 8.1.. 1. 17.4 18.5 14.5 19. 1. 7.7 4. 4.6.4. Ecuador (9) Brazil (8) Mexico (8) Uruguay (7) Chile (8) Argentina (9) Colombia (8) Panama (9) Peru (8) Bolivia (Plur. State of) (8) Costa Rica (8) Guatemala (8) Dominican Rep.(8) El Salvador (8) Honduras (8) Nicaragua(6) Paraguay (7) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a Income before transfers refers to the per capita income obtained by households through their participation in the labour market (primary income). The households reported as low-income before transfers are not necessarily the same as those reported as low-income after transfers.
A broad range of social programmes were announced LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO OF SOCIAL PROGRAMMES ANNOUNCED AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF THE CRISIS (Percentages) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 75 5 5 5 5 5 South America and Mexico Central America The Caribbean Support for poor families Consumption subsidies Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), The reactions of the Governments of the Americas to the international crisis: an overview of policy measures up to 3 September 9 (LC/L.35/Rev.5), Santiago, Chile, October 9.
Measures taken in response to the crisis Non-contributory cash transfers Changes to social security: strengthening the pillars of solidarity and protection of retirement benefits Increase of coverage and amounts. Very widely adopted (17 countries) Partial use, almost exclusively in countries with more developed systems (5 countries) Protection of labour income (minimum wage and wage replacement) Wide use of minimum wage and unemployment insurance where available (8 countries) Economic stimulus measures (credit and tax exemptions for SMEs, training) SME measures widely used (1 countries); training to a lesser extent (5 countries) Investment in and subsidies for housing Very widely used (1 countries) Investment in social services infrastructure (education and health) Very widely used (13 countries) Food Widely used (9 countries). Relatively less developed countries prioritize food security Subsidies on basic necessities Widely used (18 countries)
As activity levels and world trade begin to pick up, commodity prices are beginning to rise SELECTED COMMODITY PRICE INDEXES, -9 (=1) 5 45 4 35 3 5 15 1 5 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 3 Apr 3 Jul 3 Oct 3 Jan 4 Apr 4 Jul 4 Oct 4 Jan 5 Apr 5 Jul 5 Oct 5 Jan 6 Apr 6 Jul 6 Oct 6 Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Oct 7 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Food Metals and minerals Oil Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from UNCTAD and CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).
The region is regaining access to international financial markets LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMBIG AND EXTERNAL BOND ISSUES (Basis points and millions of dollars) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from J.P.Morgan. 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 E n e 6 F e b 6 M a r 6 A b r 6 M a y 6 J u n 6 J u l 6 A g o 6 S e p 6 O c t 6 N o v 6 Di c 6 E n e 7 F e b 7 M a r 7 A b r 7 M a y 7 J u n 7 J u l 7 A g o 7 S e p 7 O c t 7 N o v 7 Di c 7 E n e 8 F e b 8 M a r 8 A b r 8 M a y 8 J u n 8 J u l 8 A g o 8 S e p 8 O c t 8 N o v 8 Di c 8 E n e 9 F e b 9 M a r 9 A b r 9 M a y 9 J u n 9 J u l 9 A g o 9 S e p 9 O c t 9 N o v 9 ( P u n t o s b a s e ) 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 ( M il lo n e s d e d ó l a r e s ) Sovereign Private Quasi-sovereign + supranational EMBIG composite for Latin America (left axis)
Thank You.