EU Budget: the CAP after 2020

EU Budget: the CAP after 2020 MODERNISING & SIMPLIFYING THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY TARGETED, FLEXIBLE, EFFECTIVE A STRONG BUDGET FOR A STRONG CAP JUNE 2018 #FutureofCAP

The Future CAP in a nutshell 2

THE FUTURE CAP PRIORITIES AT A GLANCE Simplification and modernisation of the CAP Support to the development of a knowledge-based agriculture Higher ambition on environment and climate action A fairer and more effective distribution of support across MS and farmers A more balanced way of working together 3

WHY: LESSONS LEARNT FROM ASSESSING THE CAP Analysis and wide public consultation confirm major achievements of the CAP Increase in EU competitiveness turned the EU into a net agro-food value-added exporter Positive impact on jobs, growth and poverty reduction spread in all EU rural areas Relative income stability within a very volatile farm-income and commodity-price environment but analysis and public opinion also reveal shortcomings to be addressed Despite progress, the environmental performance of EU agriculture requires improvement Productivity growth is mainly driven by labour outflow and less by R&I or investment Equity, safety net and simplicity questions persist despite CAP efforts to address them in a changing broader environment within which the CAP operates Expectations about the level of agricultural and commodity prices changed from CAP post-2013 The world trade environment has shifted from multilateral to bilateral/regional agreements New climate change, environmental and sustainability commitments stem from COP21 and SDGs 4

Main challenges at a glance 5

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 COMMODITY PRICE WAVES (REAL PRICE INDICES) 200 (2010 = 100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: World Bank. Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals & minerals 6

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 WORLDWIDE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS 800 Natural catastrophes worldwide - number of events 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events Meteorological events: Tropical storm, extra-tropical storm, convective storm, local storm Hydrological events: Flood, mass movement Climatological events: Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire Source: 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatService (January 2017) 7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 THE NEED TO DO MORE ON CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT Reduction in environmental impact indicators (2010=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Ammonia emissions from agriculture GHG emissions from agriculture Gross nitrogen balance Source: Eurostat. 8

CAP budget level and distribution 9

THE CAP IN THE MFF CONTEXT Continuity within new EU priorities in a post-brexit MFF A 5% cut in expenditure, but a more targeted approach to improve efficiency and performance The "C" in the CAP remains strong, implies a better sharing of responsibilities between EU and MS Better link to other policies (esp. environment, climate, research, health) improves mutual efficiency Main changes in the CAP Stronger environmental/climate ambition with conditionality, eco-schemes and strategic plans Specifying the objectives that add EU value to render the CAP more sustainable, simpler and modern Better targeting of support improves synergies between the economy and the environment Main expected impact from changes Stronger reliance on research, knowledge transfer and digital economy to modernise CAP and sector A needs-based approach increases subsidiarity and flexibility to promote common EU objectives The CAP shift from compliance to performance parallels MFF shift towards more focus on incentives 10

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 HOW MUCH: CAP BUDGET IN PERSPECTIVE (current prices) 80 70 in billion EUR as share of GDP EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 EU-28 EU-27 0.8% 0.7% 60 0.6% 50 0.5% 40 0.4% 30 0.3% 20 0.2% 10 0.1% 0 0.0% Export subsidies Other market measures Coupled support Decoupled support of which direct payments of which green payments Rural development - environment/climate Rural development - other measures Pillar I 2021-2017 proposal (excl. mkt) Pillar II 2021-2027 proposal Current CAP excl UK CAP as share of EU GDP Source: EC-DG AGRI. Note: Budget figures are actual until budget year 2016, programmed from 2017-2020, and based on the MFF proposal for 2021-2027. 11

FOR WHOM: CONVERGENCE OF DIRECT PAYMENTS (2027) 600 EUR/ha 500 400 300 200 100 0 MT EL NL BE IT HR CY DK DE SI FR EU 27 Average DP/ha baseline Average DP/ha after cut after convergence (2027) Baseline EU average Source: EC-DG AGRI. Note: Direct payment amounts exclude payments for cotton. LU AT IE HU CZ ES SE FI PL BG SK RO PT LT LV EE Average DP/ha after cut before convergence New EU average 90% of EU average after cut before convergence 12

CAP objectives and priorities 13

WHAT FOR: THE NEW ARCHITECTURE OF CAP OBJECTIVES BROADER CAP OBJECTIVES FOSTER A BOLSTER STRENGTHEN RESILIENT FARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE FABRIC IN RURAL AREAS SPECIFIC CAP OBJECTIVES Economic Environment Environment & Climate & Climate Social Ensure fair income Increase Competitiveness Rebalance power in food chains Climate change action Environmental care Landscapes and biodiversity Generational renewal Vibrant rural areas Food and health quality Sustainability CROSS-CUTTING CAP OBJECTIVES Modernisation Simplification 14

The CAP shift towards performance 15

HOW: THE NEW DELIVERY MODEL OF THE CAP EU Specific objectives EU Set of common Indicators Broad types of interventions Identification of needs in MS's CAP Plan MEMBER STATES Tailor CAP interventions to their needs Implementation / Progress towards targets 16

HOW: FOCUS ON PERFORMANCE Multi-annual programming approach for the whole CAP COMMON OBJECTIVES INDICATORS TYPES OF INTERVENTIONS Assurance Annual Performance Clearance Linking expenditure to output Common Output Indicators Monitoring Annual Performance Review Checking progress towards targets Common Result Indicators Policy performance Interim Evaluation Assessing performance towards objectives Common Impact Indicators 17

Mandatory for farmers Mandatory for farmers Voluntary for farmers HOW: THE NEW GREEN ARCHITECTURE OF THE CAP Farm advisory services Knowledge transfer Innovation Cooperation 40% of budget climate relevant Current architecture Level of requirement New architecture Climate & Environmental measures in Pillar II (AECM, Forestry measures, investment measures ) Eco-schemes in Pillar I Climate & Environmental measures in Pillar II (AECM, Forestry measures, investment measures ) Voluntary for farmers Greening (3 detailed obligations on crop diversification, permanent grassland and EFA) Cross-compliance (on Climate/Env, 7 GAEC standards - water, soil, carbon stock, landscape - and requirements from Nitrates Directive and Natura 2000 Directives) New, enhanced conditionality (on Climate/Env, 14 practices built upon EU minima (climate change, water, soil, biodiversity and landscape) and requirements from Nitrates Directive, Water Framework Directive and Natura 2000 Directives) Mandatory for farmers 18

Conditionality rules Enhanced with regard to environment and climate OVERVIEW OF THE NEW DIRECT PAYMENTS Reduction of all direct payments Above EUR 60 000 and capping at 100 000 To DP (primarily for redistributive income support for sustainability) and/or to RD Coupled support Wide range of sectors (new: non-food products replacing fossil material in the bio-economy) Up to 10% (+ 2 % for protein crops) of DP envelope, to be decided by MS Complementary income support for young farmers Additional payment per hectare For young farmers who are newly set up for the 1 st time Additional amount per hectare not exceeding national average From bigger to smaller and medium-sized farms Eco-schemes Practices beneficial to environment and climate Requirements and amount per hectare to be determined by MS Complementary redistributive income support for sustainability Amount(s) per hectare, ranges of hectares and max number of hectares to be determined by MS Basic Income support for sustainability (BISS) Round sum payment for small farmers Round sum payment to be determined by MS Replacing all DPs Optional for farmers Possibility for uniform rate per eligible hectare or differentiation by groups of territories facing similar socio-economic or agronomic conditions Minimum requirements (min. farm size) If with payment entitlements (PEs): - further internal convergence (no PE value < 75% average by 2026 at latest) - maximum value of PE Definitions (specified by MS): Genuine farmers, young farmers, agricultural activity, eligible hectare, agricultural area (arable land, permanent crops, permanent grassland) 19

FUTURE OF RURAL AREAS HIGHLIGHTS installation of young farmers and rural business startup knowledge exchange and information area-specific disadvantages resulting from certain mandatory requirements 8 broad EU interventions to be tailored and defined by Member States (replacing around 70 measures and submeasures) natural or other areaspecific constraints environmental, climate and other management commitments Minimum budget ringfencing of total EAFRD contribution: 30% for interventions addressing the three environmental/ climate objectives 5% for LEADER Mandatory to programme risk management tools (no minimum budget requirements) Overview of the coordination, demarcation and complementarities between EAFRD and other EU funds in rural areas in the CAP Plan Possibility of using financial instruments (incl. working capital), also in combination with grants risk management tools cooperation investments Possibility to enhance synergies with and fund LIFE projects and Erasmus-type exchanges for young farmers Increase of the maximum amount of aid for the installation of young farmers (up to EUR 100.000)

CAP Impact Assessment 21

IMPACT ASSESSMENT: ITS LOGIC AT A GLANCE Problem definition, intervention logic, EU value added Problem to address: targeting, environment/climate ambition, simplification, modernisation Main change in policy orientation: shift from compliance to performance Rebalancing EU and MS responsibilities: focus on objectives and interventions adding EU value Objectives, indicators and monitoring data The entry point for assessing long-term policy performance is the set of CAP specific objectives Indicators link, directly or indirectly, supported interventions to the achievement of objectives Streamlined Monitoring and Evaluation Framework reflects CAP policy shift towards performance Constraints, main policy questions and the selection of options The unknown budget envelope led to one budgetary assumption CAP post-brexit Options mainly differentiate income distribution and environmental/climate ambition aspects Multi-criteria analysis complements model results - both assess risks and mitigating safeguards 22

POLICY IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION THE CAP CYCLE: POTENTIAL RISKS Administrative risks Adequate administrative capacity Market risks Un-level playing field between farmers Insufficient uptake of intervention PERFORMANCE AND ASSURANCE Implementation issues Insufficient quality of monitoring data Timing issues Implementation issues Inadequate planning of data monitoring Timely evaluation results Uneven national requirements Insufficient use of innovative solutions for checks and monitoring Insufficient performance Administrative & timing issues Inappropriate capacity for planning Unfair treatment of CAP plans Delays in approval of CAP plans PLANNING Inadequate strategy Imbalance between economic, environmental and social dimensions Complex or incoherent strategy Inadequate targeting of beneficiaries 23 Lack of vision Lack of support towards modernisation Lack of ambition with regard to targets

POLICY IMPLEMENTATION EVALUATION THE CAP CYCLE: SAFEGUARDS EU audits Performance bonus Suspension of payments Financial correction Action plan for remedial actions Reduction in payments Annual review meetings Monitoring committee meetings Performance reporting, review and assurance CAP plan approval PERFORMANCE AND ASSURANCE PLANNING Interim evaluations (CAP Plan) Interim evaluation and report EC Ex-post evaluations Conditionality CAP plan requirements No backtracking rule Budget earmarking EU basic requirements Stakeholder consultation Ex-ante evaluation EC support SWOT analysis 24

IMPACT ASSESSMENT: ITS CONCLUSIONS AT A GLANCE Redistribution and better targeting of support: income effects Income effects are asymmetric with respect to farm size and sector affected Both cuts and the distribution of support matter, negatively impacting short-run competitiveness Flexibility in redistribution of support crucial in mitigating potentially negative income impacts The dilemma of raising environmental ambition: mandatory or voluntary? Voluntary measures increase flexibility and improve targeting, but introduce uncertainty in ambition Mandatory measures increase area coverage and improve ambition, but are by design less targeted The right balance, based on needs and evidence, requires appropriate administrative capacity Risks and mitigating factors: impact on modernisation and simplification Challenges at the EU level: Simplification of legislation and approval procedures of Strategic Plans Challenges at the MS level: Evidence supporting a needs-based approach for Strategic Plans Challenges at the farm level: Better link to advice and faster integration into Farming 4.0 realities 25

REPORTS AND MORE INFORMATION On MFF Material https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/factsheets-long-term-budget-proposals_en http://ec.europa.eu/budget/mff/index_en.cfm On CAP legislative proposals, Impact Assessment and Background https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/futurecommon-agricultural-policy_en Thank you for your attention! 26