Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN)

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(DMART IN) Rating: REDUCE CMP: Rs1,572 TP: Rs1,270 January 14, 2019 Q3FY19 Result Update Change in Estimates Target Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Rating REDUCE REDUCE Target Price 1,270 1,286 Sales (Rs. m) 256,636 329,396 252,408 323,969 % Chng. 1.7 1.7 EBITDA (Rs. m) 23,221 32,098 24,186 32,090 % Chng. (4.0) - EPS (Rs.) 21.6 30.4 22.7 30.5 % Chng. (5.0) (0.4) Key Financials FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Sales (Rs. m) 150,332 198,095 256,636 329,396 EBITDA (Rs. m) 13,528 16,620 23,221 32,098 Margin (%) 9.0 8.4 9.0 9.7 PAT (Rs. m) 7,678 9,416 13,459 18,995 EPS (Rs.) 12.3 15.1 21.6 30.4 Gr. (%) 60.4 22.6 42.9 41.1 DPS (Rs.) - 1.5 2.0 3.0 Yield (%) - 0.1 0.1 0.2 RoE (%) 18.0 18.6 22.3 25.4 RoCE (%) 22.9 26.6 32.3 37.5 EV/Sales (x) 6.5 5.0 3.8 3.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 72.4 59.1 42.3 30.4 PE (x) 127.8 104.2 72.9 51.6 P/BV (x) 21.0 18.0 14.8 11.8 Key Data AVEU.BO DMART IN 52-W High / Low Rs.1,699 / Rs.1,060 Sensex / Nifty 36,010 / 10,795 Market Cap Rs.981bn/ $ 13,907m Shares Outstanding 624m 3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.1872.39m Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter s 82.20 Foreign 5.45 Domestic Institution 3.01 Public & Others 9.34 Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 1.6 (1.5) 26.2 Relative (0.8) (0.8) 20.9 Amnish Aggarwal amnishaggarwal@plindia.com 91-22-66322233 Nishita Doshi nishitadoshi@plindia.com 91-22-66322381 5-10% EPS Cut; Retain Reduce Key Points Gross margin declined by 170bps on conscious strategy to reduce prices Operation expenses increased 30bps as D Mart invested in creating capabilities for future in terms of infrastructure, people and longer operating hours during festival season. EBIDTA margins declined 200bps as Cost of retail increased by 30bps YoY to 6.4% Added 4 new stores, pending capex of Rs841mn out of IPO proceeds for construction of stores and purchase of fit outs We cut FY19 and FY20 EPS estimates of D Mart by 10.7% and 5% following 200bps margin decline and just 2% PAT growth in 3Q19. D Mart continues to focus on strong sales led by Everyday Low price strategy. Margins have been impacted by higher spends behind new store infrastructure, people and expenses to manage festive demand through higher operating hours. D Mart has lowered prices across categories led by benefits from higher economies of scale which reinforces its pole position of a value retailer. D Mart has growth strategy is place led by 1) gradual acceleration in store openings (added 21 stores in FY16 and FY17 and 24 stores in FY18) 2) ramp up of D Mart ready model from 58 locations in 4Q 3) ramp up in young clusters like Punjab, Tamilnadu, Rajasthan, NCR and MP and 4) higher sales share of general merchandise and apparel from 28.4% (up 200 bps in FY18) We expect profit growth to bounce back from 4Q as low base will come into play, although number of store openings in 4Q will be a key factor to watch out for. We remain positive on D Mart given strong cluster based strategy, Everyday low prices model and strong balance sheet. We estimate 34.5% PAT CAGR over FY18-21. However, valuations at 72.8xFY20 EPS of Rs21.6 and 51.6xFY21 EPS of Rs30.4 factors in the expected growth. Retain reduce with a target price of Rs1270 (45xDec20 EPS). Adj. PAT up only 2.1% to R.2.57bn: Net Sales increased 33.1% to Rs54.51bn. Gross Margins declined by 170bps to 14.7% due to conscious strategy to reduce prices across consumer categories. EBIDTA increased by 7.5% YoY to Rs4.53bn on 200bps margin decline. Cost of retail increased by 30bps led by 40bps higher overheads despite 10bps lower employee cost. Operating costs increased due to spends on new store infrastructure and employees. During the festive season, store operated for longer hours which also resulted in operating costs increasing. Adj. PAT grew only 2.1% Rs2.57bn due to increase in finance costs by 36%, depreciation by 33% and tax rate by 25bps and decline in other income by 36.7%. D Mart added 4 stores during the quarter (9 stores in 9MFY19) taking the total stores to 164. January 14, 2019 1

Net Sales up 33.4%; Ad. PAT up 2.1% on 200bps decline in margins Y/E March Q3FY19 Q3FY19 YoY gr. (%) Q2FY19 9MFY19 9MFY18 YoY gr. (%) Net Sales 54,509 40,939 33.1 48,725 148,829 111,989 32.9 Gross Profit 8,009 6,711 19.3 6,983 22,113 17,932 23.3 % of NS 14.7 16.4 (1.7) 14.3 14.9 16.0 (1.2) Other Expenses 3,476 2,493 39.4 3,087 9,456 7,504 26.0 % of NS 6.4 6.1 0.3 6.3 6.4 6.7 (0.3) EBITDA 4,533 4,217 7.5 3,896 12,657 10,429 21.4 Margins (%) 8.3 10.3 (2.0) 8.0 8.5 9.3 (0.8) Depreciation 522 393 32.8 444 1,369 1,081 26.6 Interest 149 110 35.9 101 350 462 (24.3) Other Income 86 137 (36.7) 139 368 577 (36.3) PBT 3,949 3,851 2.5 3,491 11,306 9,462 19.5 Tax 1,378 1,334 3.3 1,109 3,971 3,235 22.8 Tax rate (%) 34.9 34.6 0.3 31.8 35.1 34.2 0.9 Adjusted PAT 2,571 2,518 2.1 2,382 7,335 6,228 17.8 Added 4 stores in 3QFY19; Cost of retail up 10bps QoQ and 30bps YoY 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 No of Stores 136 141 155 157 160 164 Area (mn Sq.ft.) 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 Sales/Ft 8,353 9,304 7775 9181 9637 10531 Gross Profit/Ft 1,348 1,525 1157 1434 1381 1547 EBIDTA/FT 757 958 601 851 771 876 Cost of retail % 7.1 6.1 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 EBIDTA/Ft and Cost of retail likely to improve on healthy SSG FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Sales/Ft 28,136 31,120 32,719 35,848 39,408 43,104 Gross Profit/Ft 3,845 4,475 5,145 4,934 5,583 6,345 EBIDTA/FT 1,993 2,417 2,915 2,784 3,264 3,847 Capex/Ft 9,632 8,925 10,103 10,599 9,664 9,710 Cost of retail % 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% Working Cap/Ft 1,263 1,631 1,723 1,921 2,076 2,250 January 14, 2019 2

3.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.8 6.0 10.9 Avenue Supermarts Bill Cuts increased by 23.9% to 134.4mn in FY18 LTL growth at 14.2% in FY18 Bill Cuts Growth % Av Bill value Growth % (RHS) LFL growth 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 9.2 5.7 8.2 1.8 5.5 5.0 4.8 1 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 3 25.0 2 15.0 1 5.0 26.1 22.4 21.5 21.2 14.2 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Sales/Sq. ft. increased to Rs 43,104 Foods continue to remain the highest contributor Sales/ sq.ft Growth (RHS) Foods Non Foods General merchandise & Apparel 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 11.1 10.6 10.2 9.4 6.6 5.1 28136 31120 32719 36361 40068 43826 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 8 6 4 2 25.9 26.4 26.4 28.4 21.2 20.6 2 2 52.8 53.1 53.7 51.6 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 January 14, 2019 3

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Avenue Supermarts ITO has stabilized, FA turnover to increase further Return ratios to improve sharply 16.0 14.0 12.0 1 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Inventory Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover 14.3 14.0 14.2 14.7 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.5 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E 4 35.0 3 25.0 2 15.0 1 5.0 15.9 12.7 ROE ROCE 38.0 32.6 27.6 20.2 21.0 23.8 27.3 23.2 23.5 27.7 22.3 25.4 19.7 18.4 18.5 18.6 Net cash positive from FY17 CFO to increase at 15.9% CAGR between FY18-21 15.0 1 5.0-5.0-1 8.6 FY15 11.6 FY16-3.9 FY17-1.2 FY18 Net Debt (Rs bn) 0.5-1.0-5.3 FY19E FY20E FY21E 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Cash flow From Operations (Rs m) 14,526 12,538 10,821 9,340 6,200 4,598 1,816 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E January 14, 2019 4

Financials Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 150,332 198,095 256,636 329,396 YoY gr. (%) 26.4 31.8 29.6 28.4 Cost of Goods Sold 126,356 168,777 217,114 276,693 Gross Profit 23,976 29,318 39,522 52,703 Margin (%) 15.9 14.8 15.4 16.0 Employee Cost 2,826 3,685 4,876 6,259 Other Expenses 7,622 9,013 11,425 14,346 EBITDA 13,528 16,620 23,221 32,098 YoY gr. (%) 37.9 22.9 39.7 38.2 Margin (%) 9.0 8.4 9.0 9.7 Depreciation and Amortization 1,590 2,060 2,527 2,976 Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Non-Current Assets Gross Block 40,307 50,132 60,773 72,474 Tangibles 39,800 49,549 60,103 71,704 Intangibles 507 583 670 770 Acc: Dep / Amortization 7,089 9,156 11,691 14,674 Tangibles 6,877 8,909 11,363 14,254 Intangibles 212 247 328 420 Net fixed assets 33,218 40,975 49,082 57,801 Tangibles 32,923 40,640 48,740 57,450 Intangibles 294 335 342 350 EBIT 11,938 14,560 20,694 29,123 Margin (%) 7.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 Net Interest 595 448 354 247 Other Income 693 397 218 348 Capital Work In Progress 1,471 1,544 1,622 1,703 Goodwill 783 783 783 783 Non-Current Investments 414 414 414 414 Net Deferred tax assets (450) (705) (918) (1,225) Other Non-Current Assets 876 912 997 1,091 Profit Before Tax 12,036 14,508 20,558 29,223 Margin (%) 8.0 7.3 8.0 8.9 Total Tax 4,158 5,092 7,098 10,228 Effective tax rate (%) 34.5 35.1 34.5 35.0 Profit after tax 7,878 9,416 13,459 18,995 Minority interest 0 - - - Share Profit from Associate (200) - - - Adjusted PAT 7,678 9,416 13,459 18,995 YoY gr. (%) 60.4 22.6 42.9 41.1 Margin (%) 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.8 Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) 380 3 3 3 Reported PAT 8,058 9,419 13,462 18,998 YoY gr. (%) 68.0 16.9 42.9 41.1 Margin (%) 5.4 4.8 5.2 5.8 Other Comprehensive Income - - - - Total Comprehensive Income 8,058 9,419 13,462 18,998 Equity Shares O/s (m) 624 624 624 624 EPS (Rs) 12.3 15.1 21.6 30.4 Source: Company Data, PL Research Current Assets Investments 682 750 825 907 Inventories 11,634 15,476 19,894 25,338 Trade receivables 335 434 562 722 Cash & Bank Balance 5,602 2,488 2,218 5,544 Other Current Assets 694 792 1,027 1,318 Total Assets 56,483 65,476 78,595 97,121 Equity Equity Share Capital 6,241 6,241 6,241 6,241 Other Equity 40,450 48,154 60,112 76,853 Total Networth 46,691 54,395 66,353 83,094 Non-Current Liabilities Long Term borrowings 2,460 1,640 820 - Provisions 7 17 40 90 Other non current liabilities - - - - Current Liabilities ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 1,933 2,500 2,500 2,500 Trade payables 3,173 4,330 5,518 7,076 Other current liabilities 1,754 1,875 2,432 3,121 Total Equity & Liabilities 56,482 65,476 78,595 97,121 Source: Company Data, PL Research January 14, 2019 5

Cash Flow (Rs m) Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Key Financial Metrics Year Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PBT 12,036 14,508 20,558 29,223 Per Share(Rs) Add. Depreciation 1,590 2,060 2,527 2,976 EPS 12.3 15.1 21.6 30.4 Add. Interest 595 448 354 247 CEPS 14.9 18.4 25.6 35.2 Less Financial Other Income 693 397 218 348 BVPS 74.8 87.2 106.3 133.1 Add. Other (201) - - - FCF (2.5) (1.4) 3.7 10.4 Op. profit before WC changes 14,021 17,017 23,439 32,446 DPS - 1.5 2.0 3.0 Net Changes-WC (1,890) (2,893) (3,300) (3,976) Return Ratio(%) Direct tax (4,158) (5,092) (7,098) (10,228) RoCE 22.9 26.6 32.3 37.5 Net cash from Op. activities 7,973 9,031 13,041 18,243 ROIC 23.8 23.4 27.4 32.1 Capital expenditures (9,539) (9,892) (10,711) (11,776) RoE 18.0 18.6 22.3 25.4 Interest / Dividend Income - - - - Balance Sheet Others (260) (65) (72) (80) Net Debt : Equity (x) - Net Cash from Invt. activities (9,799) (9,957) (10,783) (11,855) Net Working Capital (Days) 21 21 21 21 Issue of share cap. / premium 220 (586) - - Valuation(x) Debt changes (10,580) (253) (820) (820) PER 127.8 104.2 72.9 51.6 Dividend paid - (1,128) (1,504) (2,256) P/B 21.0 18.0 14.8 11.8 Interest paid (595) (448) (354) (247) P/CEPS 105.8 85.5 61.4 44.6 Others - - - - EV/EBITDA 72.4 59.1 42.3 30.4 Net cash from Fin. activities (10,956) (2,415) (2,678) (3,323) EV/Sales 6.5 5.0 3.8 3.0 Net change in cash (12,782) (3,342) (421) 3,064 Dividend Yield (%) - 0.1 0.1 0.2 Free Cash Flow (1,566) (861) 2,330 6,467 Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e Mar Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Net Revenue 38,100 45,594 48,725 54,509 YoY gr. (%) 22.5 26.7 38.9 33.1 Raw Material Expenses 32,432 38,474 41,742 46,501 Gross Profit 5,668 7,121 6,983 8,009 Margin (%) 14.9 15.6 14.3 14.7 EBITDA 2,945 4,227 3,896 4,533 YoY gr. (%) (30.2) 43.5 (7.8) 16.3 Margin (%) 7.7 9.3 8.0 8.3 Depreciation / Depletion 465 403 444 522 EBIT 2,480 3,824 3,453 4,012 Margin (%) 6.5 8.4 7.1 7.4 Net Interest 132 100 101 149 Other Income 149 143 139 86 Profit before Tax 2,497 3,866 3,491 3,949 Margin (%) 6.6 8.5 7.2 7.2 Total Tax 826 1,360 1,233 1,378 Effective tax rate (%) 33.1 35.2 35.3 34.9 Profit after Tax 1,671 2,506 2,258 2,571 Minority interest - - - - Share Profit from Associates - - - - Adjusted PAT 1,671 2,506 2,258 2,571 YoY gr. (%) 72.9 43.4 18.2 2.1 Margin (%) 4.4 5.5 4.6 4.7 Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Reported PAT 1,671 2,506 2,258 2,571 YoY gr. (%) 72.9 43.4 18.2 2.1 Margin (%) 4.4 5.5 4.6 4.7 Other Comprehensive Income 3 (2) (1) (1) Total Comprehensive Income 1,674 2,505 2,256 2,570 Avg. Shares O/s (m) 624 624 624 624 EPS (Rs) 2.7 4.0 3.6 4.1 Source: Company Data, PL Research January 14, 2019 6

Recommendation History No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.) 1 25-Jan-18 Reduce 900 1,157 2 13-Apr-18 Reduce 900 1,469 3 6-May-18 Reduce 1,003 1,490 4 15-Jun-18 Reduce 1,197 1,569 5 10-Jul-18 Reduce 1,197 1,522 6 30-Jul-18 Reduce 1,285 1,595 7 5-Oct-18 Reduce 1,301 1,346 8 14-Oct-18 Reduce 1,286 1,412 9 7-Jan-19 Reduce 1,286 1,571 Analyst Coverage Universe Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs) 1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,300 1,396 2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1,286 1,571 3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 3,231 3,144 4 Colgate Palmolive Hold 1,157 1,303 5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 276 227 6 Dabur India Hold 427 420 7 Emami Accumulate 521 419 8 Future Retail BUY 604 459 9 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 8,520 7,488 10 Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,880 1,785 11 ITC BUY 364 282 12 Jubilant FoodWorks Accumulate 1,395 1,217 13 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 474 467 14 Marico BUY 387 387 15 Nestle India Accumulate 11,129 10,786 16 Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1,121 1,103 17 Titan Company BUY 1,115 944 18 Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Accumulate 78 71 19 Voltas Accumulate 658 542 PL s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance) Buy : > 15% Accumulate : 5% to 15% Hold : +5% to -5% Reduce : -5% to -15% Sell : < -15% Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly January 14, 2019 7

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