DAILY FOREX & COMMODITIES FORECAST 06-08-2012 FOREX FORECAST MAJOR PAIRS OPENING MINDS CREATING FUTURES AUD/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT 1.0557 1.0579, 1.0597, 1.0632 1.0523, 1.0507, 10444 1.0523 AUD/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 1.0506 1.0442 1.0410 DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 51 115 147 DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 6 7 GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 95pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 67 Bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPER) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) BOLLINGER BAND (MEDIUM) Upper to middle band 1.0611 1.0360 1.0109 LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M 1.0507 1.0339 1.0079 1.0217 1.0120 SENTIMENT BEARISH BULLISH BULLISH BULLISH BULLISH TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: AUD/USD has tested SMA5 on Friday, while there is 6 and 7 day lagging in SMA10 and SMA15. Market SMAs are moving in upward direction with contraction in bullish sequence. While market is moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing bullish strength with 67% reading. RSI is moving in upward trend with upward direction towards resistance level (70%). Upper and lower Bollinger Bands are now showing slight expansion, while middle band is moving upward
and lower band is moving straight. It shows decreased upward volatility. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 90% bullish, and magnet theory with adjustments is showing market is 81% Bullish sentiment. Lutfi Magnet Theory and Adjustments suggested over bullish sentiment where it may take correction. From further trend line analysis, Aussie is moving in uptrend channel with support line at 1.0361 and resistance line at 1.0700. From above Technical Analysis market may attempt last week high at 1.0579 or high at resistance level 1.0597, break there will extend the bullish move to high at 113.8% of upward move from 1.0174 to 1.0579 at 1.0632, While on lower side market may attempt low at daily pivot point 1.0523, or low at weekly magnet 1.0507, break there may follow bearish corrective move to Friday s low at 1.0444. Weekly Technical Analysis: AUD/USD jumped further to as high as 1.0580 last week but continued to face resistance form near term channel resistance, which limits its rally. Further rise will remain in favor in near term. However, we'd also like to point out that AUD/USD should face even stronger resistance some upper trend line (now at 1.0685). Hence, we'll now stay neutral. Break of 1.0435 minor support will flip bias back to the downside, and further break of 1.0176 will confirm near term reversal. Though, sustain trading above the upper trend line will pave the way to retest 1.1079 high instead. Daily Fundamentals: The Australian dollar climbed to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as demand for higher yielding, riskier assets was boosted by fresh optimism over measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. A separate report showed that the country s trade balance unexpectedly swung into a small surplus of AUD0.01 billion in June, indicating that demand for commodities across Asia remains strong. In the week ahead, market participants will continue to keep a close eye on developments in the euro zone, as investors continue to digest the implications of the ECB's recent decisions. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to hold its monthly monetary policy meeting. Here is schedule for today s important data: Bank Holiday whole day: Most Australian banks will be closed in observance of the Bank Holiday. Banks in some states do not observe this holiday and will remain open. MI Inflation Gauge at 05:30am. The inflation indicator declined 0.2% in the previous reading, the first negative reading in 2012. ANZ Job Advertisements at 06:30am. This indicator has been below the zero line for three straight readings. The markets are hoping for better news in the August release. in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His words cause volatility in the markets. He may add some insights on the recent decision not to change policy. Weekly Fundamentals: The Australian dollar pushed higher last week, as AUD/USD gained about 100pips, closing at 1.0557. The Aussie was trading in a narrow range for the most of last week. Like many other major currencies, the Australian dollar improved against the greenback, following strong US employment data at the end of the week. The upcoming week is busy with 10 releases. Highlights include including the Cash Rate and key employment data. After pushing higher earlier in the week, the US dollar eventually finished the week lower. The ECB refrained from taking immediate action to try and stop the economic deterioration in the EU, and didn t live up to the expectations he created. However, he clearly hinted on bond buying in the next few weeks. After Spain opened the door, the mood improved. In the US Non- Farm Payrolls gained an unexpected 163,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 8.3%. A speech by Ben Bernanke, employment data from NZ, Australia and Canada together with the US trade balance are the main events this week. AUD/USD Last Week: AUD/USD opned the week with moving in a thin range for first three days but the last 2 days were volatile. The pair opened the week at 1.0473 and after attempting low at 1.0434, it moved higher with a spike to a high of 1.0579 on ECB press conference. AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0557, with a closing near high. The AUD/USD broke above the 1.0500 price level last week, with strong eco data, Today, AUD/USD opened the day at 1.0569. MARKET SENTIMENT 60% Bullish AUD/USD DAILY CHART Ben Bernanke speaks at 6:00. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research
EUR/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT 1.2375 1.2404, 1.2440 1.2342, 1.2310, 1.2268 1.2310 EUR/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 1.2291 1.2251 1.2243 DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 84 124 132 DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 0 0 GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 48 pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 54 Bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPER) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) BOLLINGER BAND (MEDIUM) Upper to middle band 1.2397 1.2242 1.2087 LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M 1.2268 1.2223 1.2553 1.2764 1.3295 SENTIMENT BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: EUR/USD has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday. SMAs are now converting in bullish sequence and contracting towards each other, with market moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing increased bullish strength with 54% reading. RSI is now moving above mid-level. Upper and Lower bands are slightly expending, while Middle band is moving straight direction. It signals that market is squeezing in bearish trend. Market is moving near upper band. If the pair sustained upper range till band expansion then it may turn bullish. With Lutfi Magnet theory market is 94% bullish and with adjustments 85% bullish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing over bullish sentiment where it may take correction. On the basis of Technical Analysis Market may attempt last week s high at 1.2404 and break there may extend the move to attempt high at 113.8% of last week s upward move from 1.2132 to 1.2404 at 1.2440. While on lower side it may attempt low at 23.6% retracement level of last week s upward move from 1.2132 to 1.2404 at 1.2342 or low at daily pivot point 1.2310, break there will extend the downward correction move to attempt low at 1.2268. Weekly Technical Analysis: Much volatility was seen in EUR/USD last week but the development didn't change in overall outlook. A short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2042 and further rally is expected. Break of 1.2404 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764) key resistance level next. Daily Fundamentals: The euro rallied against the U.S. dollar on Friday, amid indications that European policymakers are looking at implementing moves to stem the crisis in the euro zone, while stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data also fuelled a broad based risk rally. The euro turned broadly higher on Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated Thursday that the bank would restart its bond buying program, to help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. Markets initially turned lower following Draghi s remarks, with the euro weakening across the board after he indicated that any intervention by the ECB to calm bond markets would not come before September. In the week ahead, market participants will continue to keep a close eye on developments in the euro zone, as investors continue to digest the implications of the ECB's recent decisions. Markets will also be paying close attention to speeches by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday and Tuesday,
amid ongoing speculation over the possibility of more easing from the U.S. central bank. Here is schedule for today s important data: Sentix Investor Confidence at 1:30pm. This survey of around 2800 investors has been in negative ground since September, deteriorating in recent months. Another fall from last month s -29.6 points is expected now, to -30.7 points. The negative number expressed investor pessimism. Ben Bernanke speaks at 6:00pm. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His words cause volatility in the markets. He may add some insights on the recent decision not to change policy (but to express heightened worries). Weekly Fundamentals: Euro/dollar fell to critical support but made a huge comeback. While Draghi disappointed markets with no immediate action, he opened the door to full QE and is now waiting for Spain to walk through. Spain took a big step. Many problems still remain. Contrary to previous performances, Draghi was not at his best and the absence of bond buying from the only factor able to act was disappointing. Nevertheless, the readiness to buy bonds without sterilization and the fact that only Germany opposed the move and no other northern countries, is definitely worth noting. Before acting, internal ECB committees need to work and more importantly, countries have to ask for aid. This U-turn is very hard for the Spanish government, but for a change, they didn t reject this option this is a big step forward. Perhaps that s too much to ask. The upcoming week features Italian GDP and important German figures. After pushing higher earlier in the week, the US dollar eventually finished the week lower. The ECB refrained from taking immediate action to try and stop the economic deterioration in the EU, and didn t live up to the expectations he created. However, he clearly hinted on bond buying in the next few weeks, even full QE. This depends on the governments. After Spain opened the door, the mood improved. In the US Non-Farm Payrolls gained an unexpected 163,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 8.3%. A speech by Ben Bernanke, employment data from NZ, Australia and Canada together with the US trade balance are the main events this week. EURO Last Week: EUR/USD opened the week at 1.2296 with a bearish move. It got volatile on ECB press conference and attempted higher high at 1.2404 when Draghi said we will fight to save Eurozone, at the same time market got bearish momentum and moved up to lower low at 1.2132 when he showed no proper measures to be taken. The EUR/USD ended a rollercoaster week at 1.2375 a number that no one was expecting. The pair gained 1.72% on Friday after the US nonfarm payroll report showed that the US had created more jobs than forecast. Today the Euro opened the day at 1.2395. MARKET SENTIMENT 67% Bearish EUR/USD DAILY CHART EUR/USD DAILY CHART
GBP/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT 1.5636 1.5656, 1.5682, 1.5732 1.5617, 1.5579, 1.5532 1.5598 GBP/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 1.5598 1.5611 1.5617 DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 38 25 19 DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 0 0 GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 19 pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 52 Bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPER) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) BOLLINGER BAND (MEDIUM) Middle to lower band 1.5770 1.5595 1.5405 LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M 1.5617 1.5579 1.5732 1.5783 1.5925 SENTIMENT BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: GBP/USD has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday. Market SMAs are converting and moving in mix sequence, whereas GBP is moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing bullish strength with 52% reading. RSI is now moving upward direction. Upper, middle and lower bands are moving in straight direction, and have closed the expansion. Market is moving above middle band. If GBP sustained upper range till band expansion in current moves then it may take bullish trend. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 55% bullish, while with adjustments 59% Bearish. Lutfi magnet theory and adjustments are showing mix sentiments. Concluding all Technical Analysis Market may attempt Friday s high at 1.5656, break there may extend the move to high at 1.5682 and then may move to high at quarterly magnet 1.5732. While on lower side it may attempt low at weekly magnet 1.5617, or low at monthly magnet 1.5579, and break there may extend the bearish move to at 1.5532. Weekly Technical Analysis: GBP/USD failed to take out 1.5777 resistance and dropped sharply since then, before rebounding equally strongly. The developments mixed up the near term outlook and may stay neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.5777 resistance will confirm resumption of rebound from 1.5268 and should target 1.5906 i.e. 61.8% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5906 and 100% projection of 1.5268 to 1.5777 from 1.5392 at 1.5902. However, break of 1.5457 support will invalidate this case and should bring another decline through 1.5392 support instead. Daily Fundamentals: The pound turned sharply higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, paring some of the week s losses as renewed hopes for progress on the debt crisis in the euro zone and robust U.S. employment data boosted risk appetite. The greenback came under broad selling pressure on Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated Thursday that the bank would restart its bond buying program, to help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. Markets initially turned lower following Draghi s remarks, after he indicated that any intervention by the ECB to calm bond markets would not come before September. In the week ahead, market participants will continue to keep a close eye on developments in the euro zone, as investors continue to digest the implications of the ECB's recent decisions. Markets will also be paying close attention to speeches by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday and Tuesday, amid ongoing speculation over the possibility of more easing from the U.S. central bank. Here is schedule for today s important data:
Halifax HPI Tentative release time. This housing indicator looked strong last month, climbing by 1.0%. However, the markets are forecasting a decline of 0.4% for the August reading. Ben Bernanke speaks at 6:00. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His words cause volatility in the markets. He may add some insights on the recent decision not to change policy (but to express heightened worries). Weekly Fundamentals: GBP/USD was down almost 100pips last week, as the pair closed at 1.5636. The pound weakened during the week, but made up for most of those losses following unexpected strong employment data out of the US. Economic releases out of the UK were mixed, and the BOE made no changes to QE or the key interest rate. There are eight releases this week, including Manufacturing Production and PPI Input. After pushing higher earlier in the week, the US dollar eventually finished the week lower. The ECB refrained from taking immediate action to try and stop the economic deterioration in the EU, and didn t live up to the expectations he created. However, he clearly hinted on bond buying in the next few weeks, even full QE. This depends on the governments. After Spain opened the door, the mood improved. In the US Non-Farm Payrolls gained an unexpected 163,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 8.3%. A speech by Ben Bernanke, employment data from NZ, Australia and Canada together with the US trade balance are the main events this week. GBP last Week: GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5732. The pair attempted slightly high at 1.5746 and was bearish throughout the week. It got volatile on ECB press conference and moved down to low at 1.5488 when he showed no proper measures to be taken. The pair closed week at 1.5636. The pair got bullish on Friday after the US nonfarm payroll reports. GBP/USD opened today at 1.5610. MARKET SENTIMENT 50% Bearish/Bullish GBP/USD DAILY CHART GBP/USD DAILY CHART
USD/JPY CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT 78.56 78.77, 78.96, 79.13 78.50, 78.16, 78.00 78.46 USD/JPY SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 78.38 78.30 78.42 DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 18 26 14 DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 0 0 GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 12 pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 46 Bearish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPER) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) BOLLINGER BAND (MEDIUM) Middle Band 79.56 78.64 77.71 LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M 78.33 78.96 79.13 80.32 80.32 SENTIMENT BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: USD/JPY has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday. JPY/USD SMAs are moving in bearish sequence and showing contraction as the pair has taken support at 78.00 and moved upward. RSI is showing decreased bearish strength with 46% reading. RSI is moving slightly upward from lower support (30%) level. Upper and Lower Bands are showing contraction, while Middle is moving in downward direction. It shows short term bearish volatility might come to an end. Where JPY is moving between mid and lower band. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 75% bullish and adjustments are 68% bullish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing bullish sentiments. Concluding all Technical Analysis Market may attempt Friday s high at 78.7, break there may extend the move to higher high at monthly magnet 78.96 or higher high at quarterly magnet 79.13. While on lower side may attempt low at weekly magnet 78.33, or may attempt low at 778.16, break there may move to low at support level at 78.00. Weekly Technical Analysis: Despite edging lower to 77.90, USD/JPY didn't extend the decline but recovered. The break of 78.67 minor resistance indicates that a short term bottom is already in place. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week and stronger rebound could be seen back to 79.13 support turned resistance and above. Nonetheless, break of 77.90 will extend the fall from 80.61 again towards 77.66 low. Daily Fundamentals: The U.S. dollar was higher against the yen on Friday, to end the week unchanged as market sentiment was boosted by fresh optimism over steps to tackle the debt crisis in the euro zone and stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. Markets rallied on Friday, dampening demand for the traditional safe haven yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated Thursday that the bank would restart its bond buying program, to help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. Markets initially turned lower following Draghi s remarks, after he indicated that any intervention by the ECB to calm bond markets would not come before September. The yen came under some pressure ahead of the Bank of Japan s upcoming policy meeting, amid speculation that the central bank may ease monetary policy after Japanese official s reiterated concerns over the currency s appreciation. Markets will also be paying close attention to speeches by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday and Tuesday, amid ongoing speculation over the possibility of more easing from the U.S. central bank.
Here is schedule for today s important data: JPY no data: no major data is expected for the day. Ben Bernanke speaks at 6:00. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His words cause volatility in the markets. He may add some insights on the recent decision not to change policy (but to express heightened worries). Weekly Fundamentals: The Japanese yen eventually remained unchanged in a week that saw classical range trading and regular risk on / risk off movements. Last week, weak data was released with an unexpected drop of 0.1% in Prelim Industrial Production, A smaller than predicted rise of 1.6% in Household Spending and a disappointing decline of 0.6% in Average Cash Earnings. Japan s economy is not picking up as the BOJ anticipated. Current Account and the rate decision are the Major events this week. After pushing higher earlier in the week, the US dollar eventually finished the week lower. The ECB refrained from taking immediate action to try and stop the economic deterioration in the EU, and didn t live up to the expectations he created. However, he clearly hinted on bond buying in the next few weeks, even full QE. This depends on the governments. After Spain opened the door, the mood improved. In the US Non-Farm Payrolls gained an unexpected 163,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate increased to 8.3%. A speech by Ben Bernanke, employment data from NZ, Australia and Canada together with the US trade balance are the main events this week. JPY Last Week: Despite other major s volatile moves, USD/JPY remained steady and range bound last week in the low 77.75 to 78.75 price level. The pair started the week at 78.43 with a downward move to low 77.89. It then moved to high at 78.77 and closed the week at 78.56. Today it started the day at 78.58. MARKET SENTIMENT 63% Bearish USD/JPY DAILY CHART USD/JPY DAILY CHART
GOLD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT 1602.96 1606.26, 1611.57, 1617.00 1598.47, 1591.69, 1585.02 1598.47 GOLD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 1601.45 1605.42 1596.79 DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) 1.51-2.46 6.17 DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA 0 0 0 GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & 15 $ 8.63 RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 52 Bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPER) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) BOLLINGER BAND (MEDIUM) Middle Band 1626.22 1592.16 1558.10 LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M 1606.26 1591.69 1584.66 1658.85 1721.71 SENTIMENT BEARISH BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical analysis: GOLD market has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 on Friday. Gold market s SMAs are now contracting in bullish sequence as the gold market has taken downward consolidation. While market is moving between SMA5 and SMA10. RSI is showing slightly bearish strength with 52% reading and moving in uptrend with upward direction. Upper, middle and Lower bands are moving in straight direction with slightly expended bands, showing decreasing bullish volatility. Gold is moving between middle and upper band. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 63% Bearish and with adjustments 58% Bearish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and Adjustments are showing bearish sentiment in the gold market. Concluding all Technical Analysis market may attempt high at weekly magnet 1606.26, or high at 1611.57, or high at 75% of downward moved from 1627.50 to 1585.02 at 1617. While on lower side may attempt low at daily pivot point 1598.47, or may move down to low at monthly magnet 1591.69 or may attempt low last week s low at 1585.02. Weekly Technical Analysis: Gold failed to sustain above 1625.7 resistance and subsequent break of 1600.8 minor support indicates that recent sideway trading from 1526.7 is still in progress. On the downside, below 1562 will favor a downside breakout to below 1526.7. But strong support should be seen around 1500 psychological level to contain downside. Meanwhile, Break of 1628 will be another sign of upside breakout and break of 1642.4 should send gold through 1700 psychological level. In short term timeframes (4hourly, daily & weekly charts) gold is in consolidation phase. Daily Fundamentals: Gold prices rose in U.S. trading on Friday after the U.S. government reported that the economy added far more jobs in July than forecast, which sent the precious metal's traditional hedge, the dollar, falling. The U.S. economy added a net 163,000 net nonfarm payrolls in July, far more than market expectations for a gain of 100,000 and well above June's revised figure of 64,000. The news sparked a global risk-on trading session in which investors ditched the greenback for higher-yielding currencies and equities. Gold and the U.S. dollar often trade inversely from one another, and the surge in appetite for risk Friday sent the yellow metal gaining. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's service-sector index outpaced expectations last month as well. In a report, the Institute for Supply Management said that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 52.6 in July, up from 52.1 in June. The service sector employs the bulk of the U.S. labor market. Analysts had expected the index to rise 52.0.
Weekly Fundamentals: Gold prices started the week higher, extending Friday's gains as investors were cautious about the outcomes of FED and ECB monetary decisions. However prices turned lower during the week, slipping to a one week low after stronger-than-forecast U.S. private sector employment data sent the dollar higher while Federal Reserve said it would remain on standby to stimulate the economy with monetary easing tools. Gold futures also turned sharply lower on Thursday, falling below USD1600 an ounce after the European Central Bank disappointed market expectations for monetary policy action to contain the debt crisis in the euro zone. Yellow metal managed to trade higher on Friday as bullish U.S. Nonfarm payroll numbers lifted sentiment for the Gold despite the global debt projection, as well as a sharply lower greenback lifting risk appetite. In the local market gold slipped by Rs 85 to close at Rs 48,857 per 10 grams in the local market on Thursday as its international price dropped to $ 1,604 an ounce. According to Karachi Saraf Association official, tola (11.664 grams) price also decreased by Rs 100 to Rs 57,000. MARKET SENTIMENT 58% Bearish GOLD DAILY CHART Gold Market Last Week: Gold opened the week at 1623.06. The precious metal was bearish for the whole day with a high at 1627.50 and moved downward to low at 1585.02. Gold bounced on weakness of the USD. In a surprise ending of the week gold closed at 1602.96 up for the day but down for the week, Today, Gold market started the day at 1603.09. FOR MORE INFORMATION For any query regarding market forecast please contact Waqar Talpur Research Analyst waqartalpur@ismarfinancial.com or Shoaib Ahmed Research Analyst shobz99@yahoo.com
IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA FOR THIS WEEK Monday, August 6 Markets in Australia are to remain closed for a national holiday. The country is to release a report on job advertisements, an important indicator of demand in the labor market. The euro zone is to produce a report on investor confidence, an important indicator of economic health. Markets in Canada are to remain closed for a bank holiday. In the U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy. Tuesday, August 7 The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank s rate statement, which outlines the reasons for the bank s policy decision and discusses the economic outlook. New Zealand is to publish official data on labor costs, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Switzerland is to release government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. In addition, the Swiss National Bank is to release a report on foreign currency reserves, which give an important insight into the central bank s currency market operations. In the euro zone, Italy is to release official data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the foremost indicator of the economy's health. Elsewhere, Germany is to produce official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production. The U.K. is to publish official data on manufacturing and industrial production, leading indicators of economic health. The country is also to publish industry data on retail sales. Canada is to release government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as the Ivey purchasing managers index, a leading indicator of economic health. Later Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington DC. Wednesday, August 8 Japan is to release official data on the current account, which is closely linked to currency demand. Australia is to produce official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market. The Bank of England is to publish its inflation report, which gives investors a valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. In the euro zone, Germany is to hold an auction of 10- year government bonds and publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is to release government data on labor costs and productivity, leading indicators of consumer inflation. The country is also to release official data crude oil stockpiles. Thursday, August 9 Both Australia and New Zealand are to produce government data on employment change and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health. Japan is to publish official data on core machinery orders, while the BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank s rate statement, which outlines the reasons for the bank s policy decision and discusses the economic outlook. The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which gives a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective. The U.K. is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods. Elsewhere Thursday, Canada is to release official data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on house price inflation and the trade balance. The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on the trade balance. Friday, August 10 The RBA is to release its statement on monetary policy, which gives a valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. The U.K. is to publish data on producer price inflation input, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Later Friday, Canada is to produce government data on employment change and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health. The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on import prices and the federal budget balance. Switzerland is to publish government data on consumer climate, a leading indicator of consumer spending.