CF ABSOLUTE RETURN CAUTIOUS MULTI ASSET FUND ALL TERRAIN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT OCTOBER 2011 The long term is only reached through a series of short terms For professional investors and financial advisers only not for onward distribution.
A COMMON SENSE APPROACH TO INVESTING RISK MANAGEMENT INVOLVES LISTENING AND ADAPTING TO WHAT THE MARKETS ARE TELLING YOU. ITS A DAILY DISCIPLINE - A MONTHLY INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MEETING IS INSUFFICIENT IN TODAY S ENVIRONMENT.
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY EFFICIENT PORTFOLIOS HAVE THE MOST EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT An unconstrained, actively managed multi-asset strategy with complete flexibility at the asset allocation level. Aims to deliver a total return in excess of a cash benchmark (LIBOR + 2%)* over 12 month periods through investing across a range of asset classes. RETURN 40% 20% 0% libor (bp0003m index) JPM embi global bonds (jpeiglbl index CMA ftse private investor bal tr (ftpibptr) ftse 100 (ukx index) * Please note the return is a target only and is not guaranteed. 20% msci world (mxwo index) 40% msci emerging mkts (mxem index) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% RISK Since inception (21/04/2008) CMA MSCI World MSCI Emerging Mkts FTSE100 JPM EMBI FTSE Private LIBOR (MXWO Index) (MXEM Index) (UKX Index) (JPEIGLBL Index) (FTPIBPTR) (BP0003M) Perf / Cumulative return Risk Compounded Annual Return 26.40% -20.46% -37.03% -10.48% 35.74% 9.02% 6.08 % 10.56% 27.71% 27.15% 24.23% 11.38% 15.56% 0.54% 7.10% -6.48% -12.66% -3.19% 9.36% 2.56% 174% Source: ARIA / Date: 1/09/2011 Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Performance is based on Actual Performance of the CF Absolute Return Cautious Multi Asset Class A share class, since inception, net of fees.
CMA: AN OVERVIEW UCITS III Retail Scheme Unconstrained, actively managed, multi-asset class/strategy fund Focus on Absolute Returns Well diversified - over 120 positions Active hedging (puts, inverse ETFs, currency overlay) 1.5% AMC, plus PF on returns above LIBOR +2% benchmark 5% standard initial charge (includes 3% adviser commision) 2nd place in 2009 and 2010 in the IMA Absolute Return sector A portfolio fund designed to replace traditional Cautious/Balanced Managed funds
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Markets are either trending (higher or lower) or in a trading range The first objective is to identify which market environment you are in In a trading range environment buy low and sell high In a trending environment follow the trend as it unfolds The market will always try to throw you off prematurely Markets always climb a Wall of Worry Only become contrarian at extremes - most investors become too contrarian too early, when the the most profitable strategy would be to remain with the crowd
DAILY RISK MANAGEMENT Capital Preservation is key and explains the Fund s outperformance Only invest into a Stock, Sector, Country, or Asset Class if we believe risk/reward potential is there Be quick to reduce risk when the markets tells us we re wrong Being wrong is easily determined by a quick look at our P&L! Add to winning positions The key is to remain FLEXIBLE and not become dogmatic: adapt or die...
GENUINE ACTIVE ASSET ALLOCATION BY MANAGING THE DOWNSIDE, THE UPSIDE LOOKS AFTER ITSELF October 2010 January 2011 april 2011 july 2011 1.43% 1.19% 2.31% 2.50% 3.09% 6.47% 7.03% 25.84% 55.12% 2.01% 1.16% 1.26% 2.61% 1.81% 1.88% 1.23% 0.78% -1.00% 2.63% 2.85% 2.74% 4.08% 5.61% 5.92% 5.70% 5.62% 6.09% 7.22% 12.57% 9.52% 50.47% 51.24% 60.13% 17.99% 19.51% 18.35% Net Long Equity exposure: 44.77% Tactical Equities Commodities* Net Long Equity exposure: 13.20% Tactical Equities Commodities* Net Long Equity exposure: 41.82% Tactical Equities Cash Net Long Equity exposure: 40.00% Tactical Equities Commodities* Net Commodity exposure: 26.68% Listed Hedge Funds Equity Income Net Commodity exposure: 19.93% Cash Equity Income Net Commodity exposure: 13.50% Commodities* Equity Income Net Commodity exposure: 19.61% Listed Hedge Funds Equity Income Fixed Interest Listed Hedge Funds Listed Hedge Funds Fixed Interest Strategic Equity Equity Hedges* Fixed Interest Equity Hedges* Private Finance Fixed Interest Strategic Equity Strategic Equity Equity Hedges* Strategic Equity Private Finance Private Finance Cash Private Finance Equity Hedges* Cash Source: ARIA Capital Management Allocations are actual allocations at the date stated. Provided for information purposes only not an indication of future allocations.
INVESTMENT PROCESS SUMMARY THEMATIC ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION / MACRO SENTIMENT ANALYSIS MONEY FLOW ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION SHILLER S CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO SHOWS THE US EQUITIES STILL EXPENSIVE 45 40 35 1st quintile (most expensive) 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile (cheapest) 30 25 20 15 10 5 31/01/1881 31/01/1901 31/01/1921 31/01/1941 31/01/1961 31/01/1981 31/01/2001 Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Robert Shiller, October 2010
RETURN EXPECTATIONS ANNUALISED 10 YEAR REAL RETURNS BASED ON THE STARTING SHILLER PE 1 1.7% 2 5.3% 3 6.4% 4 7.2% 5 10.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Robert Shiller, October 2010
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS INVESTORS ARE USUALLY MOST PESSIMISTIC AT THE BOTTOM Source: Bloomberg
GOLD IS CHEAP GAUGING THE OVERALL HEALTH OF THE MARKET / TIMING 140% 120% 100% Gold is expensive - USD overbacked by gold 80% Gold is inexpensive - USD underbacked by gold 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: SG Cross Asset
CONCLUSION: PARTING SHOTS WHY THIS IS NOT THE ONSET OF A NEW SECULAR BULL MARKET - A COMPARISON WITH AUGUST 1982 Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
FUND PERFORMANCE (1) Multi-Plot Charting 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Apr 08 Jul Oct Jan 09 Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Apr Jul Oct Jan 11 Apr Jul 10/10/2006-10/10/2011 Performance Data from FE Discrete performance Key Fund 10-Oct-2011 10-Oct-2010 10-Oct-2009 10-Oct-2008 10-Oct-2007 IMA Absolute Return -0.30% 2.74% 8.92% -2.92% 7.95% FTSE-100-1.31% 13.42% 37.26% -38.37% 12.97% IMA Balanced Managed -4.22% 9.96% 14.20% -20.40% 10.24% IMA Cautious Managed -2.30% 8.07% 10.68% -14.16% 5.08% CF Absolute Return Cautious Multi Asset A Acc -1.39% 9.93% 22.49% - - Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Performance is based on Actual Performance of the CF Absolute Return Cautious Multi Asset Class A share class, since inception, net of fees.
FUND PERFORMANCE (2) Multi-Plot Charting 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Sep 08 Nov Jan 09 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 11 Mar May Jul Sep 10/10/2006-10/10/2011 Performance Data from FE Discrete performance Key Fund 10-Oct-2011 10-Oct-2010 10-Oct-2009 10-Oct-2008 10-Oct-2007 IVEAGH Wealth Acc GBP -0.94% -1.92% 3.66% - - CF Absolute Return Cautious Multi Asset A Acc -1.39% 9.93% 22.49% - - Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Performance is based on Actual Performance of the CF Absolute Return Cautious Multi Asset Class A share class, since inception, net of fees.
WEALTH WARNING The target yield is that expected at launch given the target asset allocation. Telephone calls are recorded to ensure compliance with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. The information in this document is based on our understanding of law and regulation at the time of print and is subject to change. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Please note that bond funds may not behave like direct investments in the underlying bonds themselves. By investing in bond funds the certainty of a fixed income for a fixed period with a fixed return of capital are lost. Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as small cap markets tend to be much more volatile than their larger capitalisation counterparts. Investments may be concentrated in any one country, sector or issuer. The Fund may have a significant exposure to high yield bonds, emerging market bonds or non investment grade or unrated bonds at any time. Non investment grade bonds may increase the risk to capital. Derivatives may be used to achieve fund objectives and allocations may vary significantly over time. The yield or the capital value of the Fund (or both) can fluctuate and investors may not get back their original investment. In the case of a new Fund, there is a risk that if the anticipated size of the Fund is not achieved, the proportion of charges and expenses allocated to the investment may be higher and the value of the investment consequently reduced. Please note that investments in foreign markets are subject to special currency, political, and economic risks. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made. This document is intended only for professional investors and financial advisers. This document is not directed at or intended for the use of retail clients. The material on these pages is provided for information purposes only; it is not an invitation to invest. Income from investments may fluctuate and investors may not recoup the amount originally invested. Please refer to the relevant Fund Offering documents and/or the terms and conditions for any services offered for detailed information. Please seek relevant professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. The funds may use both long and short positions in individual stocks and markets, which may be more volatile than other investments, such as cash or bonds, and the value of the portfolio can therefore move independently from the general direction of the stock markets, rising as markets fall but theoretically it can also fall as markets rise. The Manager employs a risk management process to oversee and manage derivative exposure within the funds and portfolios. This document contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of ARIA Capital Management. Such statements, expressed or implied, are based on management s current expectations and assumptions, which may change without notice, and are no guarantee of future results, performance or events. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in any of the funds or provide any investment services mentioned, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Persons interested in acquiring funds should inform themselves as to (i) the legal requirements in the countries of their nationality, residence, ordinary residence or domicile; (ii) any foreign exchange controls; and (iii) any relevant tax consequences. Absolute Return Investment Advisers (ARIA) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK, with Firm Reference number 527557. A Limited Company registered in England and Wales No: 7091239. ARIA and ARIA Capital Management are trading names of Absolute Return Investment Advisers (ARIA) Limited. Contact Address: 4 Duke Street, Richmond, TW9 1HP. Telephone: +44 (0)203 137 3840. E-mail: enquiries@ariacm.com, For further information please visit www.ariacm.com ARIA, 016, 10/2011