Commentary SUGAR CFTC Supplemental 16th Jan 218 Tuesday, 23 January 218 A huge increase in the net spec short over the reporting period as 74k lots of selling hit the market down to multi month lows. Commercial buy backs present again during the reporting period as the merry go round continues. However, producers remain under-priced so the bias would suggest the downside is still more vulnerable. Index funds appear happy also to increase their holdings as prices diminish. Also worth noting that while on Sugar the net spec community as of the report were registering 77 of their recent historical max (135k ) Funds/specs are now probably at a record net short over between 15-16k lots so there would be limited scope for them to sell more. This is a theme across the commodity spectrum with a seemingly near record max short holding across the commodities covered in this report. With prices so low and a glut upon us one hope is that it is often said the darkest hour of the night comes just before dawn! Period moves Week to 16th Jan ICE SUG11 MAR8 SUGAR NO5 MAR8 WHEAT HRW MAR8 SPG WHT MAR8/d WHEAT SRW MAR8 SOYBEAN OIL MAR8 M.WHEAT EUR MAR8 ICE COT 2 MAR8 COFFEE NEW JAN8 WHEAT B JAN8 ICE COFFEE MAR8 TR/CC CRB TR CORN MAR8 L HOGS FEB8/d LDN COCOA MAR8 FCATTLE JAN8/d ICE COCOA MAR8 SOYBEANS MAR8 LIV CAT FEB8/d SOY MEAL MAR8-8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 6. Aggregated Summary of COT Report for Major US Agri Commodities * Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-531532 -123944 34897 43.21 621 129965 9/1/218-47588 1436 2892554 42.62-4924 Longs s 16/1/218 134343 42872 935928 13.27 674 9/1/218 13558 29452 896624 13.21 17868-565689 127116 Longs s 16/1/218-777742 81289 2446814 34.69 17618 26329 9/1/218-85931 -21369 2379841 35.6-837662 Longs s 16/1/218-34157 -216 623 8.83 4864 58-12416 9/1/218-33941 -952 618128 9.11 Change in OI from 9/1/218 266797 Aggregated OI Futures & Options -24421 75394 6787143 Aggregated Length vs CRB Index 8 6 4 2-2 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 Outstanding contracts as OI Non 9.11 43.21 34.69 13.27 Max Max Long -4 18-6 16-8 14 2.13 4.13 6.13 8.131.1312.13 2.14 4.14 6.14 8.141.1412.14 2.15 4.15 6.15 8.151.1512.15 2.16 4.16 6.16 8.161.1612.16 2.17 4.17 6.17 8.171.1712.17-7 98 Aggregated CRB Index *Aggregate figures are made up of agricultural commodities and livestock futures considered in this report. Ice Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, CBOT corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soybean Oil, KCBT Wheat, CME Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle and Lean Hogs.
Tuesday, 23 January 218 CFTC Commitment of Traders Supplemental Report Summary Non- Long Net Wkly Chg Long Net Wkly Chg Long Net Wkly Chg ICE NY No.11 Sugar 16/1/218 93932 128111 224269-96158 -67966 265581 25592 239989 26647 317338 45437-136969 47387 9/1/218 89493 13357 161762-28192 2555 2419 26848 213342 13994 291747 47613-184356 -27815 2/1/218 886464 12864 176811-48747 3483 227712 28364 199348-4142 294976 451517-156541 -37471 ICE NY Coffee 16/1/218 271591 37311 92361-555 -12222 51265 9443 41822 468 65 94664 541 664 9/1/218 25386 37939 8767-42828 655 4454 6786 37754 291 984 9747-663 -8833 2/1/218 25296 38243 87126-48883 9675 41515 6662 34853-272 95278 8718 817-7784 ICE NY Cocoa 16/1/218 32696 6552 82261-1729 738 542 2512 2989 28 117 14237-23137 324 9/1/218 318816 63299 81246-17947 1243 4777 1888 29682-627 119778 143239-23461 -929 2/1/218 31139 63897 8387-1919 3586 4613 15794 339 1834 117842 14374-22532 -54 ICE NY Cotton 16/1/218 39921 128677 19332 19345 7995 86551 14534 7217-41 73133 26321-187188 -914 9/1/218 35413 122356 26 1135 1813 83548 11121 72427-173 639 23887-17848 -984 2/1/218 34566 118695 19158 99537 1219 85254 12654 726 964 58479 235543-17764 -167 CBOT Corn 16/1/218 1979732 241817 49991-25884 -4947 39766 76128 321532 55 597825 69215-9239 4512 9/1/218 1915789 227266 4843-253137 -2148 397573 76591 32982-7633 571368 66827-9692 29635 2/1/218 1851952 23211 4623-23289 6827 397136 68521 328615 2789 549513 6765-126537 -1832 CBOT Wheat 16/1/218 669281 95625 25929-163584 -16646 173164 37836 135328 442 156969 129862 2717 1463 9/1/218 639461 97253 244191-146938 -613 16132 29746 131286 342 143519 126875 16644-2815 2/1/218 626431 9526 241531-146325 12965 15787 34 127866-798 145357 125898 19459-1892 KCBT Wheat 16/1/218 33926 87142 15599-18457 3253 6761 865 52111 741 9699 1355-3815 -4378 9/1/218 339255 988 11259-2171 61 59312 7942 5137 556 97657 131294-33637 -8614 2/1/218 343536 9462 121773-27711 48 6632 14318 46314 2159 17147 13217-2523 -7846 CBOT Soybeans 16/1/218 886347 856 217212-136652 -1428 16168 48822 112858 4454 375646 31827 57376 1983 9/1/218 84357 81491 24115-122624 -17594 15145 431 1844 1921 36939 314546 46393 14533 2/1/218 814798 86888 191918-153 -23829 147229 4746 16483-193 342383 31523 3186 242 CBOT Soybean Oil 16/1/218 498111 9133 11219-1186 -13856 12475 15676 18399 592 131861 234817-12956 13464 9/1/218 475819 91334 87664 367 381 12414 16333 1787 9939 12673 243123-11642 -15273 2/1/218 46813 91192 963 589 2756 116816 18948 97868 57 126377 227524-11147 -497 CME Live Cattle 16/1/218 44794 8654 28965 57539-7189 133631 176 131925 81 53992 221564-167572 3698 9/1/218 396835 9275 25547 64728-4245 133617 2493 131124-53 5613 221883-17127 6157 2/1/218 38988 8966 2687 68973-2588 135471 3817 131654 1798 49217 226644-177427 -28 CME Feeder Cattle 16/1/218 64384 16336 11322 514-15 15128 621 1457 674 639 15492-9183 -1121 9/1/218 63688 1648 11316 5164 22 14342 59 13833 28 6226 14288-862 48 2/1/218 62578 15857 1913 4944 624 1427 654 13553 181 58 1427-847 -463 CME Lean Hogs 16/1/218 289845 77281 25331 5195 174 87745 4693 8352 55 3715 14931-11216 -967 9/1/218 291611 77285 2649 5876 5968 89434 6887 82547 94 31652 1491-19249 -6839 2/1/218 28318 768 25772 4498 481 9116 9463 81643 717 31922 134332-1241 -5961
USc /lb USc l/b Tuesday, 23 January 218 ICE NY Sugar Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-96158 -67966 33611 35.79-5459 6257 9/1/218-28192 2555 37646 34.38 Longs s 16/1/218 239989 26647 145587 15.5 25391 9/1/218 213342 13994 133519 14.92-1256 -1319 Longs s 16/1/218-136969 47387 385823 41.9 25591-21796 9/1/218-184356 -27815 383925 42.9 Longs s 16/1/218-6861 -667 71513 7.62-1334 4733-7433 9/1/218-794 -6736 69813 7.8 Change in OI from 9/1/218 44129 Total OI Futures & Options 93932 89493 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 7.62 35.79 Non 41 77 74 41.9 15.5 Max Non Commercial Max Max Commercial 35 3 Index Trader Net Length vs ICE Sugar No.11 25 2 84 77 53 25 15 2 1 Position vs ICE Sugar No.11 15 5 45 26 SUGAR No.11 35 24 15 13 ICE Sugar No.11 25 22 2 1 15 18 9 5 16 7 14 5-5 12 3-15 1 SUGAR No.11
Tuesday, 23 January 218 ICE NY Coffee Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-555 -12222 13178 48.26-628 11594 9/1/218-42828 655 125887 49.6 Longs s 16/1/218 41822 468 3354 11.18 6725 9/1/218 37754 291 25663 1.11 2657-47224 Longs s 16/1/218 541 664 97365 35.85 9981 3917 9/1/218-663 -8833 9416 35.62 Longs s 16/1/218 7826 289 12794 4.71 1998-91 -1133 9/1/218 5737-123 11841 4.67 Change in OI from 9/1/218 17785 Total OI Futures & Options 271591 25386 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 35.85 4.71 48.26 Non 5 85 93 11.18 Max Non Commercial Max Max Long Max Commercial 6 55 5 45 4 35 Index Trader Net Length vs Coffee C 24 22 2 18 16 14 98 92-75 53 3 12 25 2 COFFEE C 8 6 5 Position vs Coffee C 3 Coffee C 4 3 28 25 2 23 2 15 1-1 18-2 13 5-3 -4 COFFEE C 8
US$/Mt US$\Mt Tuesday, 23 January 218 ICE NY Cocoa Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-1729 738 141151 44.1 1753 115 9/1/218-17947 1243 13741 43.1 Longs s 16/1/218 2989 28 35457 11.6 2632 9/1/218 29682-627 32929 1.33 2424-6754 Longs s 16/1/218-23137 324 128669 4.12-2678 -32 9/1/218-23461 -929 13159 41.25 Longs s 16/1/218 1455-1271 15421 4.81-2185 -914-533 9/1/218 11726 313 1697 5.32 Change in OI from 9/1/218 188 Total OI Futures & Options 32696 318816 Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long Outstanding contracts as OI 61 93 74 4.81 4.12 44.1 Non 11.6 Max Non Commercial Max Max Long Max Commercial 4 35 Index Trader Net Length vs ICE Cocoa 38 36 78-8 14 79 34 3 32 25 3 2 28 15 26 1 5 24 22 2 85 Position vs ICE Cocoa 38 36 COCOA 18 65 34 28 ICE Cocoa 32 26 45 3 24 22 25 28 2 26 18 5 24 16 14-15 22 2 12-35 COCOA 18
Supplemental Futures & Options COT Report Tuesday, 23 January 218 ICE NY No.11 Cotton Changes From Previous Week Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218 19345 7995 15786 4.37 6321-1674 9/1/218 1135 1813 141486 39.96 Longs s 16/1/218 7217-41 5543 12.93 33 3413 9/1/218 72427-173 47335 13.37 Longs s 16/1/218-187188 -914 166727 42.65 1394 22234 9/1/218-17848 -984 14963 42.1 Longs s 16/1/218 5826 1555 15846 4.5 44-1151 NET SPEC POSITION 115171 9/1/218 4271-657 1622 4.58 Change in OI from 9/1/218 36818 Total OI Futures & Options 39921 35413 955 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 42.65 4.5 4.37 Non 77 12.93 Max Non Commercial Max Commercial Index Net Length vs ICE Cotton Max Long 9 24 8 7 6 5 4 18 12 22 93 3 2 6 1 Psition vs ICE Cotton COTTON NO.2 11 23 ICE Cotton 9 45 4 7 18 35 5 3 3 13 25 2 1 8 15-1 -3 COTTON NO.2 3
Tuesday, 23 January 218 CBOT Corn Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-25884 -4947 865124 43.7 14551 19498 9/1/218-253137 -2148 82828 43.23 Longs s 16/1/218 321532 55 236894 11.97 87 9/1/218 32982-7633 23782 12.38-463 -229142 Longs s 16/1/218-9239 4512 6442 32.53 26457 21945 9/1/218-9692 29635 619819 32.35 Longs s 16/1/218 28942-115 233694 11.8 328 3143-562 9/1/218 2957-954 2369 12.4 Change in OI from 9/1/218 63943 Total OI Futures & Options 1979732 1915789 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 32.53 11.8 43.7 Non 6 79 88 11.97 Index Trader Net Length vs CBOT CORN Max Non Commercial Max Max Commercial 45 8 4 7 35 3 25 2 6 5 62 69 15 4 3 5 CORN 2 Position vs CBOT CORN 8 3 7 3 CBOT Corn 2 6 25 5 4 2-3 15-2 2-3 5-4 CORN
Tuesday, 23 January 218 CBOT Wheat Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-163584 -16646 37477 55.99-1628 1518 9/1/218-146938 -613 36118 56.48 Longs s 16/1/218 135328 442 155 15.76 12132 9/1/218 131286 342 95389 14.92 89-162436 Longs s 16/1/218 2717 1463 143416 21.43 1345 2987 9/1/218 16644-2815 135197 21.14 Longs s 16/1/218 1148 2141 45659 6.82-966 -317-1455 9/1/218-993 8 47696 7.46 Change in OI from 9/1/218 2982 Total OI Futures & Options 669281 639461 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 21.43 15.76 6.82 55.99 Non 89 89 93 Index Trader Net Length vs Wheat Max Non short Max Max Commercial 26 75 24 22 2 18 16 7 65 6 55 95 9 65 14 5 12 45 Position vs Wheat 4 3 75 WHEAT 1 7-1 8 Wheat -3 65 7-5 6 6-7 55 5 4 3-9 -11-13 5 45 2-15 WHEAT 4
Tuesday, 23 January 218 KCBT Wheat Net Position Wkly chng total non-commercial + non-reportab Non Longs s 16/1/218-18457 3253 163813 48.26-3738 -6991 9/1/218-2171 61 166837 49.6 Longs s 16/1/218 52111 741 3476 11.18 1449 9/1/218 5137 556 33627 1.11 78-1495 Longs s 16/1/218-3815 -4378 115998 35.85-667 3711 9/1/218-33637 -8614 114476 35.62 Longs s 16/1/218 4362 385 2469 4.71 567 182 3638 9/1/218 3977-2442 24316 4.67 Change in OI from 9/1/218-49 Total OI Futures & Options 33926 339255 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 35.85 4.71 11.18 48.26 Non 9 87 85 7 Index Trader Net Length vs KC Wheat 9 Max Non Commercial Max Long Max Max Max Commercial 85 6 8 5 4 3 2 75 7 65 6 55 5 86-19 24 73 1 45 4 WHEAT Position vs KC Wheat 9 8 8 6 7 4 6 2 5 4-2 3 KC Wheat 4-4 2 35-6 3-8 25 WHEAT Source: 2 CTFC, Reuters, ADMISI *Net non-spreading OI should total zero. CFTC option equivalent 15 5
Tuesday, 23 January 218 CBOT Soybeans Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-136652 -1428 356421 4.21-931 1397 9/1/218-122624 -17594 332583 39.45 Longs s 16/1/218 112858 4454 15251 11.87 1275 9/1/218 1844 1921 9723 11.53 5821-17234 Longs s 16/1/218 57376 1983 346958 39.14 1477 3724 9/1/218 46393 14533 337743 4.6 Longs s 16/1/218-33582 -149 77717 8.77 1484 2893-15437 9/1/218-32173 114 75529 8.96 Change in OI from 9/1/218 4329 Total OI Futures & Options 886347 84357 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 8.77 4.21 39.14 11.87 Non 3 83 92 18 Index Trader Net Length vs Soybeans 18 Max Non Commercial Max Max Commercial 16 14 12 16 14 12 95 79 52 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 Position vs Soybeans SOYABEANS 22 18 Soybeans 17 16 14 12 14 12 7 12 2 8-3 8 6-8 6 4-13 4 2-18 2-23 SOYABEANS
Tuesday, 23 January 218 CBOT Soybean Oil Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218-1186 -13856 212773 42.72-31 13555 9/1/218 367 381 188786 39.68 Longs s 16/1/218 18399 592 69876 14.3-65 9/1/218 1787 9939 7237 14.76-657 -5443 Longs s 16/1/218-12956 13464 183339 36.81 5158-836 9/1/218-11642 -15273 184913 38.86 Longs s 16/1/218 4743-2 32124 6.45 14 34-1456 9/1/218 4943 2255 31884 6.7 Change in OI from 9/1/218 22292 Total OI Futures & Options 498111 475819 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 6.45 Non 42.72 36.81 14.3 55 99 76 12 Index Trader Net Length vs Soyoil 6 Max Non Commercial Max Max Net Long Max Commercial 8 6 4 55 5 45 4 71 79-4 71 35 2 3 25 SOYABEAN OIL Position vs Soyoil SoyOil 6 6 8 5 6 5 4 4 2 4 3 3-2 2-4 2-6 1-8 - SOYABEAN OIL
USc/Lb Tuesday, 23 January 218 Supplemental Futures & Options COT Report CME Live Cattle Changes From Previous Week Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218 57539-7189 155452 38.4-3771 3418 9/1/218 64728-4245 148994 37.55 Longs s 16/1/218 131925 81 67669 16.72 14-787 9/1/218 131124-53 6855 17.15 Longs s 16/1/218-167572 3698 137778 34.4 3379-319 9/1/218-17127 6157 136248 34.33 Longs s 16/1/218-21892 269 43896 1.84 173-987 NET SPEC POSITION 35647-4499 9/1/218-24582 -1382 43538 1.97 Change in OI from 9/1/218 7959 Total OI Futures & Options 44794 396835 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 1.84 34.4 38.4 Non 55 99 49 16.72 Max Non Commercial Max Long Max Commercial Index Trader Net Length vs LIVECATTLE 14 13 12 11 9 17 15 13 11 USc/Lb 32 26 82 8 9 7 6 7 LIVE CATTLE LIVECATTLE Position vs LIVECATTLE 55 15 19 5 13 11 17 45 4 9 7 15 35 5 13 3 3 1 11 25 2-1 -3-5 LIVE CATTLE 9 7
Supplemental Futures & Options COT Report Tuesday, 23 January 218 CME Feeder Cattle Changes From Previous Week NET SPEC POSITION Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218 514-15 31284 48.59-144 6 9/1/218 5164 22 31328 49.19 Longs s 16/1/218 1457 674 7875 12.23 786 9/1/218 13833 28 7426 11.66 112-5324 Longs s 16/1/218-9183 -1121 191 16.93 83 124 9/1/218-862 48 1257 16.11 Longs s 16/1/218-1338 597 14324 22.25-56 -653 447 9/1/218-1935 -99 14679 23.5 Change in OI from 9/1/218 696 Total OI Futures & Options 64384 63688 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 22.25 Non 16.93 48.59 57 98 42 12.23 12 Index Trader Net Length vs FEEDER CATTLE Max Non Commercial Max Net Max Long Max Commercial 24 11 1 9 8 7 22 2 18 16 14 73 43-32 78 6 12 5 4 FEEDER CATTLE 8 1 Position vs FEEDER CATTLE 26 24 8 FEEDER CATTLE 5 22 7 2 6 18 5 4-5 16 14 3 2-1 12 1-15 FEEDER CATTLE 8
Supplemental Futures & Options COT Report Tuesday, 23 January 218 CME Lean Hogs Changes From Previous Week NET SPEC POSITION Net Position Wkly chng total Non Longs s 16/1/218 5195 174 12238 42.22-4 -178 9/1/218 5876 5968 122138 41.88 Longs s 16/1/218 8352 55 46219 15.95-1689 9/1/218 82547 94 48161 16.52-2194 27164 Longs s 16/1/218-11216 -967 85823 29.61-937 3 9/1/218-19249 -6839 86277 29.59 Longs s 16/1/218-24786 -611 35423 12.22 81 692 463 9/1/218-24175 -33 3537 12.1 Change in OI from 9/1/218-1766 Total OI Futures & Options 289845 291611 Outstanding contracts as OI Max Non Commercial Long Max Index Long Max Commercial Long 12.22 Non 42.22 29.61 15.95 61 94 57 Max Non Commercial Max Long Max Commercial 14 Index Trader Net Length vs LeanHogs 14 12 8 13 12 11 9 34 27 66 6 8 7 4 6 2 LEAN HOGS 5 Position vs LeanHogs 14 LeanHogs 9 13 45 7 12 4 5 11 35 3 3 25 2 1-1 9 8 7 15-3 6-5 LEAN HOGS 5
Tuesday, 23 January 218 DISCLAIMER ADM Investor Services International Limited ( ADMISI ) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland (UK) Limited in the UK, and indirectly is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Archer Daniels Midland Company ( ADM ). ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 254785, a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. ADM Investor Services Source: International CTFC, Reuters, Limited ADMISI 215. *Net non-spreading OI should total zero. CFTC option equivalent