` Market Review and Outlook The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased 101.51 points or 1.14% during the trading week to close at 9024.03 during the trading week. Market capitalization increased by 0.99% to QR493.7 billion (bn) versus QR488.9bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45 listed companies, 26 companies ended the week higher, while 18 declined and 1 remained unchanged. Dlala Holding (DBIS) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 16.75% on 2.5 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Co. (QCFS) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 9.95% on 92 shares traded only. Ooredoo (ORDS), Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) and Qatar Electricity & Water (QEWS), were the primary contributors to the weekly index gains. ORDS was the biggest contributor to the index s weekly increase, adding 26.2 points to the index. CBQK was the second biggest contributor to the mentioned gains, tacking on 22.2 points to the index. Moreover, QEWS contributed 16.7 points to the index. However, Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) deleted 8.2 points from the index. Trading value during the week increased by 73.35% to reach QR1.0bn versus QR598.3mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 39.19% of the total trading value. The Consumer Goods & Services sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 14.99% of the total trading value. QNB Group (QNBK) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR194.7mn. Trading volume increased by 167.66% to reach 33.5mn shares versus 12.5mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 50.67% to reach 13,586 transactions versus 9,017 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 26.56%, followed by the Telecoms sector which accounted for 24.29% of the overall trading volume. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with 7.5mn shares. Foreign institutions tuned bullish with net buying of QR14.2mn vs. net selling of QR38.9mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR17.5mn vs. net selling of QR2.3mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR7.4mn vs. net buying of QR0.4mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR10.8mn vs. net buying of QR40.7mn the week before. Foreign institutions bought (net basis) ~$1.7bn worth of Qatari equities YTD. QSE Index and Volume 9,050 8,950 8,850 Market Indicators Week ended June 28, 2018 Week ended June 21, 2018 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,037.2 598.3 73.4 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 493,687.0 488,859.0 1.0 Volume (mn) 33.5 12.5 167.7 Number of Transactions 13,586 9,017 50.7 Companies Traded 45 43 4.7 Market Breadth 26:18 13:30 Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 15,899.35 1.1 1.6 11.2 ALL Share Index 2,621.36 1.1 0.8 6.9 Banks and Financial Services 3,144.17 0.3 (1.0) 17.2 Industrials 2,883.60 0.7 1.2 10.1 Transportation 1,941.83 2.1 4.4 9.8 Real Estate 1,589.87 1.2 (2.2) (17.0) Insurance 3,058.99 (0.3) 4.9 (12.1) Telecoms 1,014.42 4.6 8.0 (7.7) Consumer Goods & Services 6,161.69 4.3 6.8 24.1 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,574.30 0.8 1.7 4.5 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 2.0% 0.0% (2.0%) (4.0%) 9,005.34 8,936.78 8,895.21 8,928.74 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 27-Jun 28-Jun Volume QSE Index 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Saudi Arabia Qatar (QSE)* Abu Dhabi Kuwait Bahrain (0.8%) Oman 9,024.03 (3.7%) Dubai 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 9,024.03 1.1 1.6 5.9 383.41 135,566.4 13.4 1.4 4.9 Dubai 2,821.00 (3.7) (4.8) (16.3) 366.00 100,829.9 # 9.1 1.1 6.0 Abu Dhabi 4,560.03 0.5 (1.0) 3.7 163.48 124,877.9 12.2 1.4 5.3 Saudi Arabia # 8,317.27 1.4 1.9 15.1 3,479.03 529,482.5 18.7 1.9 3.2 Kuwait 4,863.51 0.1 1.0 (2.7) 299.39 33,678.8 14.8 0.9 4.0 Oman 4,571.75 (0.8) (0.8) (10.3) 28.43 19,213.5 11.4 1.0 5.4 Bahrain 1,310.99 0.1 3.6 (1.6) 18.59 20,006.0 8.6 0.8 6.3 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; # Data as of June 27, 2018) Page 1 of 6
News Economic & Market News QNB Group to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 11 QNB Group announced that it will disclose its semi-annual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 11, 2018. (QSE) Doha Bank to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 19 Doha Bank announced to disclose its semi-annual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 19, 2018. (QSE) The Commercial Bank to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 18 The Commercial Bank announced to disclose its semiannual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 18, 2018. (QSE) Qatar Islamic Bank to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 15 Qatar Islamic Bank announced that it will disclose its semi-annual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 15, 2018. (QSE) Masraf Al Rayan to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 16 Masraf Al Rayan announced that it will disclose its semiannual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 16, 2018. (QSE) QGTS to disclose its semi-annual financials on July 11 Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited (QGTS) announced that it will disclose its semi-annual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on July 11, 2018. (QSE) AKHI to disclose its semi-annual financials on August 3 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Company (AKHI) announced to disclose its semiannual financial reports for the period ending June 30, 2018 on August 3, 2018. (QSE) QCSD amended the foreign ownership percentage of QFLS to 49% and maximum ownership to 1% Qatar Central Securities Depository (QCSD) announced that it had amended the foreign ownership percentage in the shares of Qatar Fuel Company (QFLS) to become 49% of the company s capital, and the maximum shareholder ownership limit to 1% effective from June 27, 2018. (QSE) Fitch upgrades outlook of Qatar Islamic Bank to Stable Fitch Ratings (Fitch) upgraded Qatar Islamic Bank s outlook to Stable. The report stated, this action follows the revision of the Qatari sovereign s outlook to Stable from Negative and affirmation of the country s Long-Term IDR at AA- and reflects Fitch s view that Qatar has successfully managed the fallout from last year s rupture of trade, financial and diplomatic relations. Public sector liquidity injections have stabilized the banking sector and stemmed the outflow of nondomestic funding. (QSE) Fitch upgrades outlook of Doha Bank to Stable Fitch Ratings (Fitch) upgraded the outlook of Doha Bank from Negative to Stable and affirmed the long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at A. The upgrade to Stable follows the revision of the Qatari sovereign s outlook to Stable from Negative and affirmation of the country s long-term IDR at AA-, and reflects Fitch s view that Qatar has successfully managed the fallout from last year s rupture of trade, financial, and diplomatic relations. Public sector liquidity injections have stabilized the banking sector and stemmed the outflow of nondomestic funding. The fiscal deficit has narrowed sharply and we expect it to turn into a surplus in 2019. The economy has reconfigured its supply chains and continues to grow at a robust pace. (Gulf-Times.com) FDI in Qatar rises 27% showing investors trust Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Qatar has risen by around 27% last year, which shows that the trust of global investors on the country s economy is intact. Qatar attracted close to around $1bn inward FDI last year compared to $774mn in 2016, according to the World Investment Report 2018 released by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Increase in FDI in Qatar is commendable considering the overall trend in the region was not encouraging as the region saw a declining trend in attracting foreign funds. The West Asia region, which included Qatar and other 12 countries, witnessed a fall of around 17% in 2017. The region attracted $25.5bn during last year which was around $5.2bn less than $30.8bn attracted by the countries in the region in 2016. (Peninsula Qatar) Rise in oil price helps cut Qatar s fiscal deficit The rise in crude oil prices and positive global outlook helped reduce Qatar s fiscal deficit and increased surplus in the 2017 current account balance. In addition, the country s ambitious economic diversification strategy facilitated developments of non-hydrocarbon sectors and fostered resilience of the economy against the blockade, according to Qatar Central Bank s (QCB) Governor, HE Sheikh Abdulla Bin Saoud Al Thani. The Governor said the country s economy quickly rebounded from the unjust economic blockade through relocation and realignment of economic activities, enabled by prudent economic policies and a sound financial system. Inflation during 2017 remained benign and was one of the lowest among GCC countries. Surplus current account balance and declining fiscal deficit even after sustained spending on infrastructure development reflects the strength of the Qatar economy. (Peninsula Qatar) GECF: LNG shipping costs expected to become stable The shipping fuel price and spot charter rates are forecasted to be stable and expected to stabilize shipping costs at the current level, according to Gas Exporting Countries Forum s (GECF) Secretary-General, Yury Sentyurin. The global LNG capacity is expected to grow from 377mn tons per year (mtpy) in 2017 to around 463mtpy by 2020 mainly from new projects in the US, Australia and Russia. Sentyurin added, A realistic analysis has shown that there is no LNG supply glut and if any surplus is experienced on the market, it will be meager and the market should rebalance. There is a recurrent narration and a common perspective among market players that the global LNG market would face a glut, which would persist till 2022. It makes sense when more than 115mn tons of LNG capacity are expected to come on-stream between 2017 and 2022. Accordingly, there was a variety of forecasts on when this oversupply in the market is expected to end. (Gulf-Times.com) Page 2 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 18.0% 16.8% 0.0% 12.0% -4.0% -2.7% -2.3% -1.7% -1.6% 6.0% 6.6% 5.8% 4.9% 4.4% -8.0% 0.0% Dlala Holding Qatar Fuel Ooredoo Milaha The Commercial Bank -12.0% -10.0% Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Qatar German Co. Salam International for Medical Devices Investment Al Khaliji Islamic Holding Group Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 210.0 194.7 9.0 7.5 140.0 134.5 6.0 5.0 70.0 79.0 66.9 63.9 3.0 2.5 2.4 1.8 0.0 QNB Group Qatar Fuel Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan 0.0 Vodafone Qatar Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Dlala Holding Ezdan Real Estate Masraf Al Rayan Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 100% 80% 32.07% 30.69% 7.63% 8.35% Non-Qatari 7 405 412 60% 14.84% 16.53% 40% 45.46% 44.42% (7) 20% Qatari 632 0% Buy Sell 625 Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions (100) - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought Page 3 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg Even though the Index closed 1.14% in the green vs last week s level, and as we expected last week, the weakness seen in the week before did not impact the Index much. The recent week did not prove to have strong impact on the coming week s performance; it has been ranging. We keep our major resistance levels around the 9,500-9,600 points and the closest support around the 8,600 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The body of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the shadow. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 6
Company Name Price June 28 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 152.00 0.00 20.63 140,394 11.2 2.3 3.9 Qatar Islamic Bank 116.00 (0.85) 19.59 27,410 12.3 2.0 4.3 Commercial Bank of Qatar 38.09 4.36 31.80 15,416 22.7 1.0 2.6 Doha Bank 26.75 (0.96) (6.14) 8,294 8.6 1.0 11.2 Al Ahli Bank 31.00 1.67 (16.52) 6,521 10.0 1.3 3.1 Qatar International Islamic Bank 53.02 0.04 (2.89) 8,026 9.5 1.3 7.5 Masraf Al Rayan 34.93 0.81 (7.47) 26,198 12.8 2.2 5.7 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.72 (1.65) (24.51) 3,859 7.7 0.7 7.0 Qatar First Bank 5.16 (0.19) (20.98) 1,032 N/A 0.7 N/A National Leasing 9.40 0.75 (12.23) 465 124.6 0.5 5.3 Dlala Holding 16.59 16.75 12.86 471 50.5 2.0 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 6.15 (1.60) (22.15) 194 37.4 0.7 8.1 Islamic Holding Group 27.51 (1.61) (26.64) 156 N/A 1.1 N/A Banking and Financial Services 238,435 Zad Holding 83.60 (1.07) 13.53 1,203 10.2 1.5 7.0 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 5.13 (2.66) (20.59) 59 N/A 1.1 N/A Salam International Investment 5.21 (2.25) (24.38) 596 N/A 0.4 N/A Medicare Group 63.01 2.27 (9.79) 1,773 21.4 2.0 2.9 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 18.02 (9.95) (27.92) 113 14.8 0.8 5.5 Qatar Fuel 146.99 6.59 44.02 14,615 13.4 2.2 5.4 Widam Food Co. 63.00 1.63 0.80 1,134 10.1 3.9 6.7 Mannai Corp. 49.30 3.68 (17.14) 2,249 4.4 0.8 8.1 Al Meera Consumer Goods 152.00 2.36 4.90 3,040 15.4 2.4 5.6 Consumer Goods and Services 24,782 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 40.90 1.19 (6.41) 1,944 9.9 1.3 7.3 Qatar National Cement 55.17 0.13 (12.29) 3,606 10.9 1.2 8.2 Industries Qatar 107.00 0.09 10.31 64,735 17.7 2.0 4.7 Qatari Investors Group 29.88 (0.43) (18.36) 3,715 14.7 1.4 2.5 Qatar Electricity and Water 187.97 3.28 5.60 20,677 12.5 2.3 4.1 Aamal 8.99 (0.44) 3.57 5,664 11.3 0.7 6.7 Gulf International Services 17.03 0.65 (3.79) 3,165 40.0 0.9 N/A Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 15.13 0.33 20.17 19,008 15.5 1.4 4.6 Invesment Holding Group 5.36 (0.74) (12.13) 445 10.4 0.5 10.3 Industrials 122,957 Qatar Insurance 35.50 (0.62) (21.51) 11,321 41.7 1.2 3.7 Doha Insurance 12.50 3.82 (10.71) 625 14.6 0.6 6.0 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 49.90 (0.20) 1.84 4,367 13.7 0.7 4.4 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 11.38 2.52 (14.05) 291 43.4 0.6 4.4 Qatar Islamic Insurance 50.52 (0.55) (8.10) 758 12.2 2.4 6.9 Insurance 17,361 United Development 13.96 (0.50) (2.92) 4,943 9.4 0.5 9.0 Barw a Real Estate 34.20 2.03 6.88 13,308 8.2 0.7 7.3 Ezdan Real Estate 8.20 1.23 (32.12) 21,750 25.0 0.7 N/A Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 6.70 (1.03) (25.56) 776 47.4 0.5 N/A Real Estate 40,777 Ooredoo 72.71 5.82 (19.88) 23,290 12.5 1.0 4.8 Vodafone Qatar 8.81 2.80 9.85 7,448 N/A 1.7 N/A Telecoms 30,738 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 65.00 4.86 16.20 7,444 15.0 0.6 5.4 Gulf Warehousing 41.61 0.02 (5.41) 2,438 11.0 1.6 4.1 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 15.80 0.64 (1.86) 8,754 10.1 1.5 6.3 Transportation 18,636 Qatar Exchange 493,687 Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. ( QNBFS ) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6