SPAIN Economic Outlook with view on the real estate sector

SPAIN Economic Outlook with view on the real estate sector GRI 2017 JORGE SICILIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST BBVA GROUP

Main messages The world economy continues to improve, albeit within an environment in which risks are still present In Spain, current activity trends confirm that growth remains strong. We expect GDP growth to remain around 3,0% in 2017 and 2018 (2,7%). Housing demand is picking up, as prices have stabilized or even increased significantly in certain regions. Trends in construction point to the sector finally beginning to contribute to job creation. Although reforms have had a positive impact, there are still significant imbalances

Global Economic Outlook 2 ND QUARTER 2017 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17

The positive dynamic takes hold The main trends continue while uncertainties take shape Recovery of industrial activity and international trade is confirmed A substantial growth stimulus in the US seems less likely... Financial markets rather stable amidst growing geopolitical tension A more protectionists stance is also less likely Headline inflation continues to rise, while core inflation remains stable Central banks move towards normalisation 4

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 The world's economy continues to accelerate in early 2017 Global GDP growth Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN (% QoQ) 1,2 1,0 Confidence indicators are at very high levels, but hard indicators only partially reflect that improvement 0,8 0,6 0,4 Advanced economies show signs of strength. However, China s indicators signal growth moderation in April and emerging economies are performing more irregularly (e): estimated Source: BBVA Research GDP growth Average for period CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% 5

Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 mar-11 jun-11 sep-11 dic-11 mar-12 jun-12 sep-12 dic-12 mar-13 jun-13 sep-13 dic-13 mar-14 jun-14 sep-14 dic-14 mar-15 jun-15 sep-15 dic-15 mar-16 jun-16 sep-16 dic-16 mar-17 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar 15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar 16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar 17 (e) Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Exports improve around the world World exports of goods (constant prices) (YoY, %) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 World trade shows signs of acceleration, driven by investment in China Industrial activity partially reflects this improvement Consumer indicators show some signs of slowing down Exportaciones Good exports de - BBVA bienes - BBVA (e): estimated Based on BBVA-Trade Index figures Source: BBVA Research and CPB 6

Financial tension remains relatively low BBVA financial tension index (normalised index) 1,5 0,5-0,5 China1 China2 Brexit Trump -1,5 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Developed Emerging Volatility has shrunk despite the economic policy uncertainty Fiscal and Monetary stimulus mask substantives concerns In Europe, risk premia have returned to pre-french election levels as political uncertainty has mostly dissipated (with exceptions such as Italy) Source: BBVA Research 7

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Inflation shows no signs of second round effects so far Headline and core inflation (YoY, %) 4 The effect of commodity prices on inflation is reaching its maximum level 3 2 Core inflation remains low, without apparent second-round effects 1 0 As a result, inflation forecasts have been lowered Core inflation Developed economies Core inflation World Headline inflation Developed economies Headline inflation World Source: BBVA Research and Haver 8

ene-16 Jan abr-16 Apr 16 jul-16 Jul 16 oct-16 Oct ene-17 Jan abr-17 Apr 17 jul-17 Jul oct-17 Oct ene-18 Jan abr-18 Apr jul-18 Jul 18 oct-18 Oct Central banks move towards a normalisation of their policies Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 FED and ECB interest rates (bp) 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 ECB Gradual fall in spending ECB End of QE. Remains remains stable 0,0 Source: BBVA Research, FED and ECB FED FED BCEECB The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, although it remains cautious about the economic The ECB is increasingly looking at an exit strategy for monetary policy 9

Upward revision in China and the eurozone, slightly higher in Latin America. Unchanged in the US. USA EURO ZONE 2017 2.3 2018 2.4 2017 1.7 2018 1.7 2017 6.3 2018 5.8 CHINA LATIN AMERICA WORLD Upwards Remains Downwards 2017 1.1 2018 1.8 2017 3.3 2018 3.4 Source: BBVA Research. Latin America comprises: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela 10

Spain Economic Outlook 2 ND QUARTER 2017 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 (f) Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Upward bias confirmed Spain: Observed GDP growth and forecasts of the MICA-BBVA Model* (% QoQ. 1,5 1,0 1,5 1,0 Recent economic figures (e.g. employment and exports) point to a slightly better than expected short-term outlook 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,0 Upward revision of 0.3pp in the growth forecast, which now stands at 3% for 2017-0,5-0,5 CI60% CI 40% CI 20% GDP (%QoQ) Baseline Scenario (e): estimated Source: BBVA Research (*) Camacho, M. and R. Doménech (2010): MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting, BBVA WP 10/21, available at: http://goo.gl/zejm7g 12

Tailwinds: Monetary policy and pent-up demand are boosting expenditure Consumption benefits from expansionary monetary policy through several channels Directly: lower financial burdens and improvement in funding conditions Indirectly: improving expectations about economic growth and job creation Source: BBVA Research based on Banco de España (*) Consumer Situation 2H16 Spain: Household s financial burden ( millions) 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 FB CF Change Cambio in en Desapalancamiento Deleveraging CF FB Jun-08 interest rates Dec-16 13

EXPANSIONARY CONTRACTIVE Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Tailwinds: Fiscal policy turned expansionary The impact of fiscal reform in direct taxation was stronger than expected This increased disposable income for households and firms, boosting expenditure in 2015 and 2016 Spain: Structural adjustment to the primary fiscal balance (pp of GDP) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 1.6 5.3 1.8 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(e) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) NEUTRAL (e): estimate, (f): forecast Source: BBVA Research based on INE and Banco de España 14

Tailwinds: Residential investment gains momentum Recent figures point to the long-awaited acceleration in the real estate sector Demand, along with a reduction in oversupply, have been the causes of the price increases and the uptick in activity in certain urban areas Spain: Social Security affiliation growth (SCA, % QoQ) 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 mar-16 jun-16 sep-16 dic-16 Mar-17 mar-17 Total Total Sector de la construcción Construction Sector Source: BBVA Research based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security figures 15

Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 mar-17 (e) Sep-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 mar-17 mar-17 (e) (e) Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Tailwinds: Exports of goods recover, despite Brexit The recovery in goods exports can be explained partly by improved performance in emerging markets The euro zone continues to bolster growth in exports, while lower sales to the United Kingdom has had a relatively small impact (e): estimated *Red and green respectively indicate negative and positive quarterly trend variations Source: BBVA Research based on INE figures Spain: Exports per country (trend, %YoY) Total UNIÓN Total EUROPEA TOTAL ZONA UNIÓN DEL EUROPEA EUROPEAN UNION ZONA - DEL FRANCIA EURO EUROZONE - ALEMANÍA FRANCIA France - ITALIA ALEMANÍA Germany UE, - ITALIA EXTRA Italy UEM UE, - REINO EXTRA UNIDO EU, UEM NON-EMU Total UNIÓN RESTO EUROPEA - REINO DEL MUNDO UNIDO United Kingdom ZONA DEL EURO - FRANCIA RESTO AMERICA DEL MUNDO REST OF THE WORLD - ALEMANÍA - ITALIA UE, EXTRA AMÉRICA AMERICA UEM LATINA Latin America - REINO UNIDO RESTO DEL MUNDO CHINA AMÉRICA LATINA China AMERICA AMÉRICA LATINA CHINA CHINA min 0 max min 0 max min 0 max 16

Tailwinds: Tourism remains as a positive element Most of the increase in activity comes from improvements in competitiveness and higher investment. Geopolitical tensions in some of the competitors steers tourism to Spanish destinations account for 25-30% of the rise in overnight stays by nonresidents. Spain: rise in the overnight stays of nonresident tourists (2010-2015) Due to geopolitical tensions 11-13 million (25-30%) 44 million 17

Brexi Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Tailwinds: Risks have not had the expected negative impact GOOGLE searches for hotels in Spain from the UK (January average = 100) So far, the impact of Brexit on Spain s aggregate exports has been limited and concentrated in exports of goods However, it continues to be a risk going forward 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Brexit 1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951 Semana del año 2013-2015 2016 2017 Source: BBVA Research, based on Google 18

Tailwinds: Reforms could be having a stronger impact The behavior of the investment in M&E positively surprises and approaches maximum levels Despite idle capacity in industry persists, there continue to be investment opportunities Source: BBVA Research, based on Google Spain: Investment in M&E and Capacity Utilization (%) 8 6 4 2 0 79% 82% 73% 78% 5.0 7.4 (f): forecast Source: BBVA Research based on INE & MINETUR 5.7 7.3 1995 2007 2012 2017 (f) Share of M&E in GDP Industry production capacity utilisation 19

We revise our 2017 GDP growth forecast to 3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2016 2017 2018 Source: BBVA Research 20

The global context, positive for Spain 1 Global demand Positive perspectives, especially in the euro zone and in emerging markets, will drive the exports 2 Oil price Despite increases in recent months, prices stay 40% below 2014 levels 3 Geopolitical tension Tourism in Spain will continue to benefit from the perception of insecurity in competing destinations 4 Euro exchange rate The euro is still depreciated against the dollar in 2017, but with an upward trend for 2018 5 Official Interest rates At historical lowest levels, with expectations of moderate increases in the short term interest rates in late 2018 6 Risk premium Still low as a result of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme 21

Some headwinds: Brexit will have an impact Brexit impact on GDP on Spanish regions (estimated deviation from baseline scenario in pp) More negative Source: BBVA Research based on INE 22

Some headwinds: transitory uptick in inflation Spain and Europe: headline inflation (%, YoY) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 ECB TARGET 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(f) 2018(f) 2 nd round effects remain limited EMU Spain Source: BBVA Research based on INE and Eurostat 23

Some headwinds: interest rates will begin normalization in 2018 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17

Some headwinds: interest rates could begin normalization Spain Economic Outlook SPAIN 2Q17 Impact of the ECB s Asset Purchase Program on five year CDS (basis points) 1 2 0 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 0 20 1 5 20 1 6 Mar-Dec Mar-Sept GERMANY 20 15 20 16 Mar-Dec Mar-Sept FRANCE 20 1 5 Mar-Dec ITALY 20 1 6 Mar-Sept 20 1 5 Mar-Dec SPAIN 20 1 6 Mar-Sept 20 15 20 16 Mar-Dec Mar-Sept PORTUGAL Source: BBVA Research 25

Some headwinds: policy uncertainty remains Spain: effect of uncertainty on economic policy on 2017 GDP growth (pp YoY) 0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6 DATE OF ESTIMATE 2016 2017 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Uncertainty about Spain s economic policy has diminished in the past few months However, it remains high Recent tax and regulatory changes could lead to postponement of investment plans -0.7 Source: BBVA Research from Baker et al (2015) 26

In any event, there is still much to be done Spain: GDP per capita (2010=100) 110 105 100 95 2007 8.2 Unemployment rate 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1.2% 2018 15.6 Unemployment rate Source: BBVA Research based on INE figures PIB GDP per per cápita capita (base (2010=100) Nivel 2007 2007 level 27

Real Estate Economic Outlook 2 ND QUARTER 2017 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17

mar-80 nov-81 jul-83 mar-85 nov-86 jul-88 mar-90 nov-91 jul-93 mar-95 nov-96 jul-98 mar-00 nov-01 jul-03 mar-05 nov-06 jul-08 mar-10 nov-11 jul-13 mar-15 nov-16 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Real Estate: Imbalances have been corrected Spain: housing investment and employment in construction 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Housing investment (% GDP) Employment in construction (% total employment) Averages The sector has gone through a long and painful period of restructuring. Investment dropped from close to 12% of GDP to 5% currently, while employment went from representing close to 14% of the total to around 6% today. Deleveraging by firms and households along with the restructuring of a part of a financial sector and price adjustment have been key. Source: BBVA Research based on INE 29

mar-95 dic-95 sep-96 jun-97 mar-98 dic-98 sep-99 jun-00 mar-01 dic-01 sep-02 jun-03 mar-04 dic-04 sep-05 jun-06 mar-07 dic-07 sep-08 jun-09 mar-10 dic-10 sep-11 jun-12 mar-13 dic-13 sep-14 jun-15 mar-16 dic-16 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 Prices have reflected the adjustment, but now they have stabilized Spain: home prices Spain: home real prices variation and # quarters in positive 2.500 2.000 120 100 20 10 9 Q's 12 Q's 1.500 80 0 1.000 60 40-10 -20 500 20-30 0 0-40 MFOM ( /m2, izda) INE (Housing price index, dcha) -50 2007-2014 2014-2016 MFOM INE Source: BBVA Research based on INE and MFOM 30

Real Estate: Home sales accumulate three years of growth Spain: home sales (thousands) 1.000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Avg. 2004-2007 Avg. 2008-2013 2014 2015 2016 In the boom period an average of 885,500 homes were sold per year in Spain. In contrast, in 2014 were sold just over 300,000 homes In the last 3 years the sales of homes has grown 52% to 460,000 homes sold in 2016. But this is only 53% of the sales made each year of the expansion Pent-up demand, lower interest rates, increasing credit growth and job recovery have been behind this upward trend. Source: BBVA Research based on CIEN 31

Housing initiation increases but remains at very low levels Spain: home building permits (thousands) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Avg. 2004-2007 Avg. 2008-2013 2014 2015 2016 Permits decreased 96% between 2006 and 2013, from over 850,000 to over 34,000 units Since 2014 permits have grown about 90%, but levels are still low. Permits in 2016 (65.400) represented only 7,6% of permits in 2016 In addition, land transactions have also increased their dynamism since 2016: Since 2013 land area sold has increased 71,0% Source: BBVA Research based on INE 32

Adjustments made along with the recovery should help Real Estate Spain: forecasts of Real Estate variables 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017 Prom. 2018-2020 Sales (thousand) Permits (thousand) Prices (YoY, %, right) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 GDP growth over the coming years ensures robust job growth and maintaining household confidence at relatively high levels Housing sales growth will continue to stimulate the construction of homes. Finished housing will remain at very low levels The scarcity of new housing and the impulse of demand point to new price increases Source: BBVA Research

Main messages The world economy continues to improve, albeit within an environment in which risks are still present In Spain, current activity trends confirm that growth remains strong. We expect GDP growth to remain around 3,0% in 2017 and 2018 (2,7%). Housing demand is picking up, as prices have stabilized or even increased significantly in certain regions. Trends in construction point to the sector finally beginning to contribute to job creation. Although reforms have had a positive impact, there are still significant imbalances

SPAIN Economic Outlook with view on the real estate sector GRI 2017 JORGE SICILIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST BBVA GROUP

Forecasts (% YoY) 2015 2016 2017 (f) 2018 (f) Spain EMU Spain EMU Spain EMU Spain EMU Households final consumption expenditure 2,8 1,8 3,2 1,9 2,5 1,4 2,4 1,4 General government final consumption exp. 2,0 1,3 0,8 1,8 1,0 1,2 2,0 1,0 Gross fixed capital formation 6,0 3,0 3,1 2,5 3,3 2,5 4,5 3,0 Equipment and machinery 8,9 4,3 5,0 5,0 3,6 4,1 4,4 4,7 Housing 3,1 1,9 3,7 3,7 4,3 2,9 5,8 1,7 Other constructions 6,4 0,5 0,4 0,9 1,4 1,0 2,8 1,5 Changes in inventories (*) 0,1-0,2 0,2-0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 Domestic Demand (*) 3,3 1,7 2,8 1,9 2,3 1,6 2,6 1,5 Exports 4,9 6,3 4,4 2,7 5,8 3,9 5,0 3,5 Imports 5,6 6,3 3,3 3,4 4,2 4,0 5,2 3,6 External Demand (*) -0,1 0,2 0,4-0,2 0,7 0,1 0,1 0,1 GDP mp 3,2 1,9 3,2 1,7 3,0 1,7 2,7 1,7 Pro-memoria Total employment (LFS) 3,0 1,0 2,7 1,3 2,6 1,1 2,6 1,0 Unemployment rate (% Active pop.) 22,1 10,9 19,6 10,0 17,3 9,5 15,6 9,1 Current account balance (% GDP) 1,4 3,2 1,9 3,3 1,8 3,0 1,5 2,9 Public debt (% GDP) (**) 99,8 90,4 99,3 89,6 97,8 88,4 95,0 86,4 Public deficit (% GDP) -5,1-2,1-4,3-1,9-3,1-1,7-2,1-1,4 CPI (average) -0,5 0,0-0,2 0,2 2,1 1,8 1,9 1,6 (*) Contribution to GDP Growth (**) Excluding aid to the banking sector in Spain Source: BBVA Research based on INE figures 36

SPAIN Restructuring of financial sector to allow a better transmission of monetary policy Phase 1: slow paced Change of legal framework and focus on capital Efficiency increased Solvency improved -37,3% 8,7% Reduction in number of branches since 2008 Ratio of Capital plus Reserves over total assets in 2016 (up from 5,5% in 2010) Phase 2: definite Focus on asset valuation, provisions, bad bank and capital injections (EU assisted) Liquidity got better Credit came back 110% 16,8% Loans to deposit ratio in 2017 (down from 170% in 2007) Average annual percentage increase on new credit flows to families since 2014 37

GDP (%) Real compensation per employee (%) Unemployment rate (pp) GDP (%) Real compensation per employee (%) Unemployment rate (pp) Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 SPAIN Effects of structural reforms on labor market performance Spain: GDP, real wages and unemployment rate* (cumulative change, SWDA ) Source: BBVA Research 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 The 2012 Labor market reform and the 2nd Agreement on Employment and Collective Bargaining prevented greater job destruction Wages now seem to respond more to individual firm conditions: wage moderation could have prevented the loss of 900,000 jobs up to 2015 There would be 2 million more jobs in the longterm if wage moderation had been implemented at the beginning of the crisis 2008-09 2012-13 */ BBVA (2016), The role of wage flexibility in the recovery of the Spanish labor market, in Spain Economic Outlook, Second Quarter, 2016. Page 38

SPAIN Effects of structural reforms on competitiveness ULC annual growth 2003-2007 3.5% Spain vs 1.5% EU ULC annual growth 2014-2016 -0.2% Spain vs 0.3% EU GDP deflator annual growth 2003-7 3.8% Spain vs 2.5% EU GDP deflator annual growth 2014-16 0.4% Spain vs 0.8% EU Exports/GDP Spain 25.5% in 1Q2008 Exports/GDP Spain 33.8% in 4Q2016 39

SPAIN Inflation: gains from competitiveness Spain: breakdown of the inflation differential with respect to the EMU 12 based on the GDP deflator (average annual growth) Competitiveness gain Competitiveness loss 2014-2016 2008-2013 1997-2007 -1,5-1,0-0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 Wages Productivity Margins Taxes Total Source: BBVA Research based on AMECO figures 40

SPAIN Economic performance highlights structural improvements Spain: Potential 2015 GDP growth by forecast date (%) 0.5 Forecasted three years ago 2015 1.2 Current forecast Source: BBVA Research based on INE and CF INC 41

SPAIN In the medium term, improved productivity will be a key factor The gap between Spain and the EMU in productivity growth has decreased in recent years Productivity growth is still low, although in part this might be the result of global factors Spain: Labour factor productivity (GVA per hour worked % QoQ, annualised average) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 There are some signs of structural improvement 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 1T95-4T07 1Q95-4Q07 3Q13-4Q16 3T13-4T16 Source: BBVA Research based on Eurostat figures Zona EMU Euro España Spain 42

1Q95-1Q08 2Q08-2Q13 3Q13-4Q16 1Q95-1Q08 2Q08-2Q13 3Q13-4Q16 1Q95-1Q08 2Q08-2Q13 3Q13-4Q16 1Q95-1Q08 2Q08-2Q13 3Q13-4Q16 Spain Economic Outlook 2Q17 SPAIN Sectoral composition shows some reasons for optimism Productivity performance is influenced by traditionally leading sectors, such as ICT and Manufacturing Recently, other labour intensive sectors have increased productivity, as well as creating employment Spain: Labour productivity factor GVA per hour worked (% QoQ, average annualised) 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 ICT Manufacturing Professional activities Retail, transport and hotel industry Source: BBVA Research 43

SPAIN In any event, there is still much to be done Spain: GDP per capita (2010=100) 110 105 100 2007 2018 8.2 15.6 95 Unemployment rate Unemployment rate 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.2% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: BBVA Research based on INE figures PIB GDP per per cápita capita (base (2010=100) 2007 level Nivel 2007 Skill mismatch in the labor market Productivity enhancing measures 44