Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Consumer Durable Channel-check Update Air conditioners demand momentum continues in Apr-May 16; Stabilizer sales stays strong; Electrical and kitchen appliances yet to see a recovery Large appliances air conditioners demand stays firm, April the best month Our interaction with dealers/distributors on a pan India basis suggest that air conditioners have registered strong growth in the months of April-May. April has been the best month for all air conditioner players with many large multi brand outlets and dealer reporting > 40% yoy growth. May has registered growth, but at a relatively lower level than April given the unseasonal rains in the Southern markets and certain level of early buying done in April itself. Demand in June is expected to be robust, due to favorable weather conditions in the rthern markets. Among brands, Daikin has registered strong growth across pan-india market driven by increased engagement with dealers. Blue Star should see better than market level growth (>30% y-o-y) rate due to increasing presence in non-south market and improving distribution. Voltas should see strong growth (>25% y-o-y) due to its strong presence in rthern market where demand scenario remains robust. Refrigerator demand was healthy >15% y-o-y over the past two months. Washing machine growth was relatively lower at 10% yoy. Our channel interactions suggest that Godrej Appliances (part of Godrej & Boyce) has been aggressive in the market by launching new models/ranges across its portfolio and has priced its products at a discount to the top three players (LG, Samsung and Whirlpool). While we acknowledge Godrej s increasing market presence, WHIRL should see healthy growth in the medium term driven by an overall category growth and WHIRL s channel push. Electrical Products Demand stays lukewarm, pricing pressure prevails in cables, LEDs Dealer interactions across electrical outlets indicates that volume growth for housing led products cables, switches, switchgears and lighting continue to witness lukewarm traction on the back of weakness in housing demand. Subdued copper prices have kept value growth for cable players under check, inspite of volume increase. A round of price cut is already underway in the cables market apart from a price cut taken by players in April (cumulative price cut is ~10% since April). In lighting segment, LED product prices continue to witness corrections (~15% reduction in the past two months). Strong volume growth due to shift from CFL/GLS bulbs to LED is leading to value/revenue growth. Growth in stabilizers has remained strong driven by strong air conditioner sales (which constitutes >60% of overall stabilizer demand). Stabilizers growth across key V-Guard dealers has been >15% y-o-y Kitchen appliances Muted traction across products Demand for kitchen appliances has stayed muted in Apr-May. Traction for cookers has been only moderate, with growth for branded player in inner lid cookers being subdued in non-south market due to the drought situation prevailing. For TTKPT, clip-on cookers has seen healthy traction thereby sustaining overall cooker growth. Among appliances, while gas stoves segment has seen robust growth, increased competition from new brands like Vidiem has capped growth for TTKPT. Traction for recently launched cleaning products needs to be monitored Our Views and Top Picks We continue to have a positive view on large appliances category due to low market penetration levels, premiumization possibilities with medium term triggers (7 th pay commission related spend) providing strong earnings visibility. We retain our BUY stance on Blue Star (BLSTR), Voltas (VOLT) and Whirlpool (WHIRL). We believe electrical appliance market, especially housing driven products, are unlikely to see strong demand pick-up in the medium term. We retain our negative stance on Havells (HAVL), Bajaj Electricals (BJE) and positive on V-Guard (VGRD). In Kitchen appliances, we expect cost of growth for incumbents to remain high due to emergence of new competition. We maintain our negative stance on TTKPT. Channel Check Update Market data BSE SENSEX 27,050 Nifty 8,271 Performance 1m 3m 12m Sensex 7% 10% 1% BLSTR 5% 27% 36% VOLT 10% 37% 1% WHIRL 10% 25% 12% BJE -6% 26% -20% HAVL 6% 28% 31% CRG 22% 46% 26% VGRD 4% 58% 52% TTKPT 4% 9% 16% BSE CG Index vs Sensex - Relative performance 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% CG Index Sensex VIJAYARAGHAVAN SWAMINATHAN raghavan@sparkcapital.in +91 44 4344 0022 RAVI SWAMINATHAN ravi@sparkcapital.in +91 44 4344 0058 Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>), Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset Page 1
Air conditioners demand stays strong, electrical and kitchen appliance players see low growth Air conditioner demand has stayed strong in Apr-May 16 Viveks A large Multi Brand Outlet in South India Demand for air conditioners was robust in April (>40% yoy growth) due to a strong summer. Unseasonal rains in May has led to a lower growth trajectory. Among brands Daikin, Blue and Voltas has done well Girias - A large Multi Brand Outlet in South India Traction for air conditioners was strong in April but has cooled down in May due to rains. Voltas and LG have seen healthy growth. They have not engaged with Blue Star and Daikin yet. Large rth based dealers Air conditioners sales had seen a pick-up from April and has sustained so far due to favourable weather conditions. Source: Spark Capital Research Whirlpool Channel Check Takeaways Identifying the product gaps vis-à-vis LG and Samsung and fixing the same within the next twelve months is the key focus area. In the last 18 months, Whirlpool is holding its market share despite the aggressive push from LG in Direct cool and Samsung in frostfree refrigerators due to additional touchpoints created especially in Tier-2/Tier-3 cities. Our dealerchecks suggests that Whirlpool is not giving counter-attack in refurbishing its SKUs consistently compared to LG and Samsung while Godrej (#4 player in refs and washers) is more visible with its new series of products. Refrigerators is witnessing decent growth while washing machine is yet to see a demand pick-up. Microwave ovens demand is declining steadily. This is largely due to shift from ovens to induction cooktops since the former is largely used for heating application. Whirlpool has 2.5% market share in air conditioners in FY16 and is planning to increase the market share further. More trade discounts coupled with higher ad-spends for this cateogory is helping Whirlpool to clock higher volumes albeit from a low base. Increasing trend of higher trade discounts is largely attributable to more dealer commission for airconditioners as per our dealer interaction. With its parent acquisition of Italy based Indesit, Whirlpool India plans to bring the front loader category into Indian markets. With the indigenous manufacturing by Bosch and Siemens from its Chennai facility giving challenges to market leader IFB, we do not think Whirlpool can compete in pricing with their strategy of bringing frontloaders to Indian markets from Europe. Source: Spark Capital Research Refrigerators and Washing Machine - Godrej appliances has seen strong growth over the past few years 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Companies, Spark Capital Research Growth across kitchen appliance players has been muted in FY16 Company FY15 FY16 Source: Companies, Spark Capital Research YoY Growth TTK Prestige 13,883 15,251 10% Hawkins 5,144 5,543 8% Butterfly (branded sales) 4,847 5,373 11% Company 4QFY15 4QFY16 YoY Growth TTK Prestige 2,862 3,077 8% Hawkins 1,572 1,572 0% Butterfly (Brande Sales) Godrej Appliance vs. Whirlpool - Revenue (Rs. bn) 33 35 35 28 28 28 20 16 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E Godrej Appliance Whirlpool Godrej Appliances has launched a range of new products across refrigerator, washing machine and air conditioners including the premium range NXW. The company has registered ~30% CAGR in FY13-FY16 and has registered faster growth than other top players driven by aggressive channel push. 655 1,091 67% 45 39 Growth for kitchen appliance players has been lukewarm in both 4QFY16 and FY16. Muted growth in cooker and cookware has dragged both TTKPT and HAWK s growth. Butterfly has grown in 4QFY16 only due to a low base. Demand scenario in Apr-May has also been lackluster on a pan- India basis. Page 2
Valuation Summary Company FY15-FY18E CAGR EBITDA Margin RoCE RoE Revenue EBITDA PAT FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E BJE 9.4% 50.9% NM 2.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3% 15.7% 19.2% 19.3% -2.0% 13.3% 15.5% 15.7% BLSTR 17.1% 29.6% 43.3% 5.3% 5.7% 6.1% 7.1% 16.0% 14.6% 16.1% 20.6% 19.7% 18.4% 20.4% 25.7% CROMPTON 13.2% 9.5% 7.6% 12.8% 11.8% 11.9% 11.6% - 36.5% 40.5% 42.8% - 101.0% 83.3% 58.3% HAVL 5.9% 13.7% 18.3% 8.9% 10.0% 10.7% 11.1% 18.6% 25.1% 32.9% 36.4% 23.4% 27.9% 34.8% 37.9% TTKPT 12.9% 19.7% 16.2% 10.7% 12.0% 12.5% 12.8% 14.3% 16.8% 17.2% 18.5% 14.6% 17.3% 18.0% 19.6% VGRD 11.5% 22.9% 33.0% 7.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.2% 19.0% 25.0% 26.4% 26.3% 20.3% 26.3% 26.5% 26.4% VOLT 14.0% 15.5% 28.8% 7.9% 7.5% 7.7% 8.2% 16.4% 14.7% 14.9% 16.0% 17.3% 15.6% 15.9% 16.9% WHIRL 10.4% 17.2% 42.1% 10.1% 10.9% 11.5% 12.0% 25.1% 23.9% 22.3% 21.6% 25.4% 23.8% 22.2% 21.6% Company CMP Shares MCAP EPS (Rs.) P/E Target valuation (Rs.) Rs. mn Rs. mn FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Tgt PE Other biz TP Rating BJE 225 100 22,489-1.4 9.5 12.3 14.0 NA 23.7 18.3 16.0 15.0 39 208 Sell BLSTR 441 90 39,668 10.6 11.5 16.0 23.6 41.5 38.3 27.6 18.7 20.7 0 489 Buy CRG 133 627 83,358 4.3 3.7 4.5 5.3 31.2 36.1 29.8 25.0 24.0 0 128 Sell HAVL 362 624 2,25,852 6.2 7.8 10.2 11.8 58.6 46.3 35.5 30.6 25.0 0 278 Sell TTKPT 4,620 12 53,823 77.2 101.8 117.1 141.1 59.9 45.4 39.5 32.7 25.0 129 3822 Sell VGRD 1,323 30 39,488 23.6 37.1 45.5 54.8 56.1 35.6 29.1 24.1 25.0 0 1370 Buy VOLT 336 331 1,11,115 10.2 10.4 12.0 14.3 32.9 32.2 28.0 23.5 25.1 0 359 Buy WHIRL 788 127 99,974 16.6 19.5 22.9 27.8 47.6 40.3 34.4 28.4 30.0 0 833 Buy Other business: BJE Rs. 39 for Engineering business based on 10x FY18E EPS; TTKPT Rs. 129/share of realty value; VOLT 25x FY18E earnings for UCP segment and the engineering products and 15x for EMP segment Page 3
Disclaimer Absolute Rating Interpretation BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% <15% over a 1-year horizon SELL Stock expected to provide returns of <5% -10% over a 1-year horizon Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon Spark Disclaimer Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities and infrastructure advisory services. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker and Category 1 Merchant Banker. We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in the last five years. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/SEBI or any other authorities, nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time. Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure advisory services. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. thing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Spark Capital and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such applicable restrictions. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Spark Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Spark Capital, its affiliates, and the employees of Spark Capital and its affiliates may, from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark Capital. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Spark Capital and its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent Spark Capital and its affiliates from doing so. Neither Spark Capital nor its affiliates or their respective directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for views or opinions expressed in this report or the contents or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the report or the inability to use or access our service in this report or for any loss or damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of or reliance on this report. Page 4
Disclaimer (Cont d) Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report: Disclosure of interest statement Analyst financial interest in the company Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered Investment banking relationship with the company covered Spark Capital s ownership/any other financial interest in the company covered Associates of Spark Capital s ownership more than 1% in the company covered Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months: Managing/co-managing public offering of securities Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services products or services other than those above in connection with research report Whether Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered Whether the Research Analyst or Research Entity has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company; Yes/ Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst s compensations was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report. Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors This research report prepared by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited is distributed in the United States to US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Auerbach Grayson, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). Auerbach Grayson accepts responsibility on the research reports and US Institutional Investors wishing to effect transaction in the securities discussed in the research material may do so through Auerbach Grayson. All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Auerbach Grayson, LLC in the US shall be borne by Auerbach Grayson, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited or Auerbach Grayson, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Auerbach Grayson, LLC and Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited are permitted to provide research material concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations; Page 5