Victor Shkulev Hachette Filipacchi Shkulev / InterMediaGroup President ERA Annual Meeting Verona, Italy, October 23 rd, 2007 1
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: Macro Figures 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 20010 (f) GNP Growth Rate 7,3% 7,1% 6,4% 6,6% 6,5% 5,7% 5,3% 5,2% Inflation 13,7% 11,7% 10,9% 9,7% 7,5% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% Average Personal Income, $ $180 $244 $308 $384 $491 $588 $665 $729 Real Personal Income Growth Rate 10,9% 10,9% 12,6% 12,6% 13,4% 8,3% 8,0% 7,4% Population (mln) 144,2 143,5 142,8 142,4 141,9 141,4 141,0 140,6 Rate RUR/USD 30,68 27,99 27,80 27,00 26,50 25,90 26,40 27,50 2 Source: Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade, 2007
GDP Growth Rate in Russia vs. Europe and US 7,3% 7,1% 6,4% 6,6% 6,7% 5,1% 4,7% 4,4% 3,1% 3,2% 3,4% 3,2% 2,0% 2,5% 2,7% 1,8% 2,1% 2,5% 1,3% 1,4% 0,3% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007est. Europe USA Russia 3 Source: www.earthtrends.eri.org
GDP Growth in Russia (2002 2020) GDP, bln RUB 111 992 74 897 10 831 +4.7% +6.4% +7.1% 13 243 17 048 21 620 +6.6% 26 781 +6.7% +5.7% +5.7% 30 690 34 790 39 090 +5.2% 43 600 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 2015(f) 2020 (f) 4 Source: Russian Ministry of Economy and Trade, 2007
Russian advertising market growth AD MARKET, bln RUR +12% +18% 370 +23% 321 +31% 269 +29% 220 +28% 176 70 +31% 90 +34% 113 142 +37.9% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 5 Source: AKAR Russia
Russian PRESS advertising market growth bln RUR +11% +16% 81 +17% 73 +21% 63 +13% 54 +21% +20% 34,6 +14% 39,3 44,6 23,8 28,8 +37.9% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (est) 2008 (f) 2009 (f) 2010 (f) 6 Источник: TNS Gallup NRS * Urban population 100000+, 16+
Russian PRESS Audience Mln readers 40000 36 mln. ALL PRESS 35000 All press 30000 Newspapers Magazines 27 mln. NEWSPAPERS Thousand people 25000 20000 15000 24 mln. MAGAZINES 10000 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 7 2007 vs 2002 2007 vs 2004 All press 15% 9% Newspapers 31% 16% Magazines 26% 8%
Paper consumption growth (kg/capita) Russia vs. Europe & US -5.8% -1.1% -1.6% +1.1% -3.3% +1.4% +0.2% +2.3% +1.2% +1.7% +10.7% +10.8% +13.6% +7.1% +7.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Europe 123,8 125,5 125,8 128,7 130,2 132,4 North America 325,5 306,7 303,3 298,3 301,6 291,6 Russia 23,3 25,8 28,6 32,5 34,8 37,5 8 Source: www.earthtrends.wri.org
Paper consumption (kg/capita) vs. GDP Russia vs. Europe&US (2020 forecast) Russia 2020 9 Source: Jaakko Pöyry Consulting, 2006
Media penetration: Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France TV (total): 88,9 % 96,8% Cable / Satellite 10,7 % 28,5 % Radio (daily) 78.3 % 83.0 % Magazines 47,4 % 94,8 % Newspapers 10,3 % 47.4 % Internet (monthly) 21, 9% 52.9% 10 Source: TNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 05/06; Médiamétrie : Radio Sept05/ June 2006, TV 2006, Internet November 2006
Print media penetration per type Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France Weekly magazine 25,3 % 84,0 % Monthly magazine 29,2 % 70.0 % Dailies 10,3 % 47.4 % 11 ИсточникTNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 06/07;
Print media penetration per type Russia vs. France Population 16 + Russia Population 15 + France Weekly magazine 25,3 % 84,0 % Small market share & low penetration Why? Shortage or lack of HSWO and Rotogravure printing capacities 12 ИсточникTNS Gallup, NRS all urban population 07/2, AEPM 06; Euro EPIQ 06/07;
Total Square 17.1 mln km 2 Time Zones 11 Russian Federation From West to East > 10 000 km St.-Petersburg 650 km Moscow 3 201 km Novosibirsk 9 228 km Vladivostok 13 Source: www.businesspravo,.ru
Population spread in Russia 13.5 mln people 90.3 mln people 12.2 mln. people 19.6 mln people 6.5 mln people 14 Source: GosComStat Russia, 2006
SC & LWC Paper Supply Chain Scandinavia China 15
Printing industry globalization key factors cheap work force with appropriate qualification acceptable time and price for delivery raw materials at reasonable price competition (price, quality, service) 16
Printing industry globalization: impact on Russia High quality and children books South-East Asia Monthlies Poland, Finland, Germany Weeklies, Dailies, cheap books locally 17
Printing facilities vs. population Russia vs. Europe (16 page HSWO press per 1 mln.) 9,0 8,0 7,8 7,0 7,0 7,1 6,0 5,6 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Germany France UK Italy Russia 0,3 18 Source: ERA List of offset printers, 2004 & HFS-IMG internal data, 2007
The market requirements: better printing quality demand better paper quality demand pagination variability format variability 19
Printing of Russian magazines abroad (Import, $mln) 1 050 920 810 665 700 530 551 447 +19% +4% +21% +5% +16% +14% +14% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Forecast 2008 F 2009 F 2010 F 20 Источник: Federal Agency for the Press and Mass Communications
Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Argumenty i Fakty 4 315 533 13 610 Weekly Newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda (W) 3 759 908 39 155 Weekly Newspaper ZhiznZaVsyuNedelyu 2 595 466 12 504 Weekly Newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets 2 459 453 18 949 Weekly Newspaper Ekonomika i Zhizn 1 200 000 2 072 Weekly Newspaper Trud 7 612 850 21 616 Weekly Newspaper 21 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact
Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Antenna-Telesem 5 135 767 42 384 Weekly Magazine & Newspaper 7 Dney (rotogravure) 1 056 875 4 756 Weekly Magazine Liza 750 000 6 226 Weekly Magazine 22 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact
Russian publishing market leaders (2006) Average Circulation Total Pages Edition type Cosmopolitan 917 504 5 179 Monthly Magazine Za rulem (rotogravure) 770 986 9 420 Monthly Magazine Glamour (rotogravure) 704 583 3 973 Monthly Magazine Vokrug Sveta 225 424 2 748 Monthly Magazine 23 Source: TNS Gallup Adfact
Antenna Telesem 1999 563 000 copies 24
1999 3 new 4-color CSWO printing houses St. Petersburg Moscow N.Novgorod Ekaterinburg Novosibirsk 25
26 ANTENNA TELESEM CIRCULATION GROWTH
2007: Circulation - 5 135 767 issues Audience - 14 022 700 people Distribution 66 cities in Russia and 4 cities in CIS and Baltic Manufacturing 40 printing houses 27
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 28