Sensex (35159) / Nifty (10585) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart During the last week, Index started with two consecutive muted sessions ahead of the Diwali festival. Index remained in a slender range with no real momentum. However, on the auspicious day of Laxmi Pujan, markets opened higher with a decent gap and eventually closed tad below the 10600 mark. The Friday s session turned out to be the lethargic one as market participants seemed to be in a holiday mood. Eventually, the week ended tad below 10600 by adding marginal gains to the previous week. Our markets have managed to extend the relief rally a bit; courtesy to some bump up on the Muhurat trading day. However, generally this tiny session trades with low volumes and hence we should not give much weightage to this price development. In fact, throughout the week there was no major participation seen in the market. Therefore, the truncated week does not contribute anything to our analysis. At this juncture, we still believe that the index is heading towards its cluster of resistance, which is in the zone of 10750-10800. As of now, one should trade with a positive bias but at the same, it s better to start lightening up positions once index reaches this strong hurdle and then wait for further developments to happen on charts. On the lower side, 10540-10500 are seen as immediate supports for the index. Since, the major action was seen outside the index and with Midcap index outperforming our benchmarks, we advise traders to continue with a stock centric approach by adopting a proper exit strategy. Key Levels Support 1 10540 Resistance 1 10750 Support 2 10500 Resistance 2 10800 Nifty Bank Outlook - (25771) The week gone by was a truncated festive week and Nifty Bank Index traded within a very narrow range of 300 points to end with marginal gains of 0.27% against the previous week close. On the weekly chart, the range-bound trading has resulted in the formation of 'Doji' which can be taken as a breather post the sharp up move seen in the previous week. For this week the bias remains positive however for the fresh leg of up move the levels of 25900 needs to be crossed which have acted as a hurdle in the last five trading session. Above 25900 levels, the next resistance is placed around 26083 levels. On the flip side, the bullish gap left on the daily chart on 2nd Nov around 25400-25500 will now act as a strong demand zone. Even though it was a range bound week for the Index, good stock specific moves were seen in the private banks as well as in PSU bank space; traders are hence advised to focus on individual stocks within the sector which are likely to provide better trading opportunity. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 25500 Resistance 1 25900 Support 2 25400 Resistance 2 26083
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.29%. Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 9.11% as market closed at 10585.20 levels. The Nifty November future closed with a premium of 38.55 points against a premium of 23.50 points in last trading session. The December series closed at a premium of 86.60 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 17.72 to 17.76. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.59 to 1.60. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are HCC, SUZLON, AJANTPHARM, JPASSOCIAT and RCOM. Nifty Vs Views FIIs turned net buyers in the cash market segment to the tune of 614 crores. In index futures segment, they were net buyers worth Rs. 647 crores in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating fresh long formation on Friday s session. In options front, they sold of Rs. 776 with rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are considered, fresh build-up was seen in 10700, 10800 and 11000 call options. On the flip side, good amount of positions were formed in 10100 put options. Now, maximum open interest for November series stands at 11000 followed by 10800 call and 10000 followed by 10200 put options. The benchmark indices traded in a narrow range in the truncated week. The Nifty traded firmly around the 10600 mark on the Muhurat trading session as well as on Friday. We witnessed addition of another 3% of in Nifty. Meanwhile, we also saw decent writing in 10500 and 10600 put options indicating that the base is now shifting higher. Considering the above data points, we expect continuation of recent upmove towards 10750-10800; hence, traders are advised to continue holding longs until we see any change in data. Gainers INDIANB 6024000 50.30 229.45-12.59 PCJEWELLER 9389500 26.24 91.80 10.27 ORIENTBANK 12361000 24.17 87.55 6.81 BALKRISIND 2981600 19.49 932.50-0.49 DIVISLAB 3928800 12.05 1548.95 3.22 SRF 634500 11.12 2081.50 4.25 MARICO 8143200 9.59 340.45 0.59 NHPC 22221000 9.01 26.45 5.61 Losers MINDTREE 3379800-9.61 854.30 2.08 DCBBANK 3793500-8.27 165.60-0.66 INFIBEAM 13488000-6.90 58.20 15.52 DABUR 16280000-6.79 377.20 2.33 MFSL 2211600-5.87 405.65 3.21 IGL 3803250-5.85 275.00 0.47 MRPL 4374000-5.72 82.75-0.06 JUSTDIAL 2805600-5.56 509.75 3.48 Historical Volatility HV STAR 70.44 INDIANB 92.29 GODFRYPHLP 61.85 NHPC 39.76 KSCL 54.03 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.60 0.98 BANKNIFTY 1.17 0.94 RELIANCE 0.55 0.67 ICICIBANK 0.87 0.74 INFY 0.88 0.55
FII Statistics for November 09, 2018 Turnover on November 09, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 3076.64 2429.45 647.19 396194 30244.58 3.30 51500.57 52276.62 (776.05) 964062 70661.95 2.72 10783.99 10647.22 136.78 1368875 81596.29 (0.25) 5666.84 5662.04 4.80 141653 8570.90 4.09 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 233993 15559.97 254.59 5660696 328284.84 358.64 747777 41418.97 675.16 533680 30214.51 950.12 Total 71028.04 71015.33 12.71 2870784 191073.72 1.43 TOTAL 74455 700968 458.02 Nifty Spot = 10585.20 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10600 156.55 Sell 10700 102.40 54.15 45.85 10654.15 Buy 10600 132.65 Sell 10500 99.55 33.10 66.90 10566.90 Buy 10600 156.55 Sell 10800 63.15 93.40 106.60 10693.40 Buy 10600 132.65 Sell 10400 73.70 58.95 141.05 10541.05 Buy 10700 102.40 Sell 10800 63.15 39.25 60.75 10739.25 Buy 10500 99.55 Sell 10400 73.70 25.85 74.15 10474.15 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 322 330 334 342 347 ASIANPAINT 1,235 1,265 1,287 1,317 1,339 AXISBANK 590 602 613 624 635 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,632 2,663 2,704 2,734 2,775 BAJFINANCE 2,320 2,348 2,366 2,393 2,411 BAJAJFINSV 5,545 5,623 5,674 5,752 5,803 BPCL 287 292 295 300 303 BHARTIARTL 283 291 297 306 312 INFRATEL 258 262 268 272 278 CIPLA 517 522 529 534 541 COALINDIA 264 266 269 271 274 DRREDDY 2,342 2,371 2,418 2,447 2,494 EICHERMOT 22,212 22,354 22,547 22,688 22,881 GAIL 357 362 371 376 384 GRASIM 848 858 864 874 880 HCLTECH 996 1,012 1,029 1,045 1,063 HDFCBANK 1,924 1,935 1,947 1,958 1,971 HDFC 1,757 1,787 1,810 1,839 1,862 HEROMOTOCO 2,846 2,902 2,934 2,989 3,021 HINDALCO 233 236 240 243 247 HINDPETRO 230 236 239 245 248 HINDUNILVR 1,622 1,647 1,664 1,689 1,705 IBULHSGFIN 807 835 850 878 893 ICICIBANK 350 353 356 359 361 IOC 139 140 142 143 144 INDUSINDBK 1,453 1,474 1,497 1,518 1,541 INFY 641 650 665 674 688 ITC 274 276 278 279 281 JSW STEEL 338 343 347 352 357 KOTAKBANK 1,107 1,121 1,130 1,144 1,153 LT 1,350 1,359 1,369 1,378 1,388 M&M 782 789 797 804 812 MARUTI 6,939 7,111 7,213 7,385 7,487 NTPC 152 153 155 156 157 ONGC 154 155 157 158 159 POWERGRID 188 190 191 193 194 RELIANCE 1,069 1,081 1,097 1,110 1,126 SBIN 279 281 284 286 289 SUNPHARMA 573 585 595 607 617 TCS 1,868 1,889 1,925 1,946 1,982 TATAMOTORS 187 191 196 200 205 TATASTEEL 562 567 573 578 584 TECHM 690 699 705 713 720 TITAN 831 839 852 860 873 ULTRACEMCO 3,746 3,782 3,805 3,841 3,864 UPL 713 727 736 749 758 VEDANTA 206 208 210 211 213 WIPRO 313 319 324 329 334 YESBANK 207 218 224 234 240 ZEEL 440 445 448 453 456
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